Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310538 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 138 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FAIRLY HUMID WEAK AHEAD...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ORGANIZED SURFACE FEATURES ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL TREND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES PER LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS OVERNIGHT. ALSO...TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 630 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CWA...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL...WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...AND AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SANDWICHING THE CWA...THINK A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER COULD POP ANY WHERE AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NEAR TERM. FOR TODAY WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO SCATTERED DURING THE BEST DIURNAL TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH LOOKS TO PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO CONFINE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EASTERN THIRD OF CWA MONDAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED POPUP FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY SUMMERLIKE WEATHER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA. EVEN WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...THE UPPER RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL BE OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON VARIETY...ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NO FRONTS IN OUR VICINITY...THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN...DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WILL TYPE TO HAVE MOSTLY A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM POSSIBILITY WITH 20/30 POPS MOST DAYS. OF COURSE...AS WE GET CLOSER...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY...WHERE WE CAN ENHANCE OR DECREASE THOSE POPS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SE FLOW SATURDAY...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES COMPARED TO FURTHER WEST..FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIGURING A RELATIVELY DRY GROUND...WILL TRY TO HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE LOWLANDS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHWEST VA INTO WV OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS SHOW BKN TO OVC 12KFT CEILINGS ACROSS MOST SITES. THESE CLOUDS COULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT IFR FOG FORMATION AT CRW AND EKN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES SHOULD STAY VFR WITH HIGH CEILINGS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN WV...RAINFALL SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AT MOST SITES. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS EXIST ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE THE FOG LIFT BY 12-13Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DEVELOP OR A SHOWER MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/31/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN WV AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/SL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ

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