Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031900 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS KEEPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE ARE MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WV. ONE DEFINED VORT MAX SEEN IN THE CLOUD FIELDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...IS MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL FACTOR...EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...A BIT LATER IN THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...STILL LOTS OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND UNDER THE GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. FOG LATER TONIGHT WITH THE WET GROUNDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. IN SUMMARY...WILL END SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT...KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND THROW IN SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS AGAIN THE FAST OUTLIER...SO WILL ACTUALLY KEEP THE FRONT JUST WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL NEAR 00Z. HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GOING WITH HIGH POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND WITH INSTABILITY AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES...HAVE INSERTED SMALL HAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. FOR NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING WATER PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS NOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE CHILLY PATTERN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY... LOOKS LIKE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 18Z EXTENDING FROM A CKB-CRW-HTS-CVG LINE HAS JUST ABOUT LOST DEFINITION AS WINDS TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE FOCUSED ALONG THIS DISSIPATING BOUNDARY....MAINLY AFFECTING HTS AND CRW. WE LOOK FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z...AND BY 04Z IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER KENTUCKY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY. MIXING DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING IS HELPING TO LIFT THE ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS...AND WILL BE MAINLY VFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 21Z. HOWEVER...LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT...GOING WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN LOWLANDS AND IFR CEILINGS IN MOUNTAINS TO RETURN BY 06Z...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FOG IS A BIG PROBLEM LATER TONIGHT...WHICH DEPENDS ON HOW MANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND HOW MUCH THE WINDS DECOUPLE. WILL GO CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW ON THE FOG THINKING THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD CEILING....BUT INSERTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS 05Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z LOW LANDS...AND BY 18Z MOUNTAINS. RAIN SHOWERS WITH NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER PRIOR TO 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THRU 12Z TUESDAY MORNING...AND NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG REFORMING TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

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