Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151808 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 108 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front this evening. Cold front Tuesday night. Another possible system to end week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1245 PM Sunday... The dry air has struggled to make inroads into southeast OH and northern WV. Further south, low stratus, fog, and patchy drizzle has greeted folks. While the drizzle will taper off and the fog will lift...the low clouds will persist through the remainder of the day. There is hope that northern areas can lift the bases a bit this afternoon. Temps have moved little since last night with our far reaches into southeast OH seeing temps near the freezing mark. We will await the arrival of that pesky front late this afternoon and evening with increasing isentropic lift once again providing for a miserable night of periods of light rain, fog, and low ceilings. Across Perry/Morgan/Athens...temps may creep down to freezing tonight but chances of precip making into those counties overnight are too small to carry any freezing rain hazard. Something to monitor for though. We will see upper heights begin to build on Monday, but the old front/inverted trof should provide enough low level forcing for areas of light rain in the morning. This should taper off in the afternoon as southeast flow near the surface develops and shakes the off the inverted trof. This should also allow for the low stratus to finally lift in earnest. It will be much warmer with highs running a good 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Lingered some slight chance to low chance POPs Monday morning, but trend should be drying out through the day. As a surface low lifts through the Missouri and Mississippi River valleys Monday night into Tuesday, a warm front should lift through with showers. This will be followed by a cold front Tuesday night. Did include thunder mention across the SE Tuesday evening as the front crosses, losing any thunder potential as it moves east Tuesday night. Have generally 0.5-0.75" of rain Tuesday in the showers ahead of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Unfortunately models have not resolved differences through the long term. Both ECMWF and GFS show similar features, but they are offset in both time and location lending very little confidence to forecast. Stuck fairly close to a consensus blend with some WPC guidance mixed in. Temperatures Wednesday should be near average following the cold front, but generally temperatures will run above normal through the long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Sunday... Drier air advecting in from the north will allow northern TAF sites to see improvement to perhaps VFR CIGS this afternoon. Meanwhile, southern TAF sites will struggle to improve into MVFR. Areas of light rain will move in late this afternoon from west to east in association from the return of an old frontal boundary. This may allow CIGS to briefly improve into MVFR across southern terminals, before CIGS and VSBY lower once again into IFR and then LIFR. This process will be delayed until after 06Z for northern TAF sites. The boundary/inverted trof will become overwhelmed by developing southeast flow near the surface across the entire region. As such the extent of light rain will decrease during the day Monday as well as a slow improvement of CIGS and VSBY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving and subsequent deteriorating conditions thru the period may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H L M L L L L L M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M L L M L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L H M H H L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H L L H L H M H H H L L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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