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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST AIR WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. REMNANTS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ADDS SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEW FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP OVER WESTERN CWA LENDING TO MORE HEATING WHICH
COULD IMPACT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TODAY. HAVE CHANGED
THE SHAPE OF THE LIKELY POPS AND HIGHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING
COMMENCES. WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PW VALUES RUNNING
AROUND 1.4 INCHES...AND THE LIGHT FLOW...EXPECT STORMS TO BE SLOW
MOVERS..AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ONCE AGAIN. SO FAR COVERAGE
HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY...AND GROUND SEEMS ABLE TO HANDLE THE
DOWNPOURS...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION OF LOCALIZED WATER
ISSUES IN HWO. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
MET/MAV...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG EASTERN SLOPES AS SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US....AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE MID OHIO THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWING MOS TRENDS. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK SOME. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. POP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC/ECMWF TRENDING TO GO WITH A STRONGER/FASTER UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...AND UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY WHEN THE ACTUALLY FRONT CROSSES.
RAIN ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA RIDGES IN...WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS FILTERING IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...INCLUDING AT KBKW. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z...WHEN SOME LIFTING OF CIGS TO LOW VFR MAY OCCUR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN...PARTICULARLY AFTER
16Z...AND GRADUALLY DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY BY AROUND 00Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING AT KBKW. FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING...LOCATION OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING ONLY PATCHY/LOCAL MVFR FOG
CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN SLOPES
INCLUDING AT KBKW COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IF PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR FOG
POSSIBLE FOR DAWN MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL