Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 242055 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 354 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY TONIGHT. NEXT CLIPPER APPROACHES SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE COLD PARADE CONTINUES WITH CLIPPERS THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLURRIES...OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO EXPECTING A BRIEF PEAK OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS WAVE...BUT WILL FILL BACK IN WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. HAVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WV AND THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT...WITH THE COLD GROUND IN PLACE. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF WARM AIR SHOULD SURGE AHEAD OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...THAT MOST AREAS...OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL START OUT AS RAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLY STARTING IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE OHIO AND THE CNTRL WV MOUNTAINS WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES COULD FALL. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY...AN INCH OR LESS MOST PLACES. COOLED TEMPS A TAD AND BROUGHT THE SNOW IN A LITTLE EARLIER BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...REGARDLESS MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH SHOULD FALL AS RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLOSE TO WPC THINKING WITH POSITIVE PNA THIS PERIOD. CLIPPER SYSTEMS REINFORCE THE COLD AIR JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THEN AGAIN THU-THU NT AND SAT NT. THE ONE JUST PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST MON-TUE. HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST CLIPPER TUE NT...AND THEN SAILS ACROSS ON WED. WARMING ALOFT WED MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THU...IN THE SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND CLIPPER. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A GOOD BUT BRIEF UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT THU NT. WHILE STILL AT A DISTANCE WHERE THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FLUX...THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY BE MORE INTERESTING THAN JUST A CLIPPER. LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE CLOSE TO WPC. THE GFS40 WAS EMPLOYED THU MORNING AND SAT MORNING...THE BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING NTS. THE FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CREATE BUST POTENTIAL IN THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV GENERALLY 20Z THROUGH 00Z AS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS HOWEVER...WILL FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS. -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY AFTER 03Z...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN WV AFTER 14Z SUNDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND WV MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L H H H M H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JW NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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