Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041743 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 143 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE-SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS MORE OF A MOISTURE BOUNDARY THAN TEMPERATURE...AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST OH COUNTIES ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OOZE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME STORMS COULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS...SO HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITED TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS MINT/MAXT NUMBERS...SO HAVE GENERALLY ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND THE FACT WE ARE IN FULL SUMMER FOLIAGE...AT THIS POINT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SOAKER OF A RAIN...WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEXT SYSTEM MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS CENTER OF LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FEED IS GOOD WITH THIS STORM AND INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AT 17Z. ISOLATED FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AFT 04Z...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. VSBYS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR AT THE AIRPORTS. DO HAVE BRIEF IFR CODED UP BEFORE DAWN PKB...CLOSEST TO THE HIGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FCST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OFCOLD FRONT STILL NW OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY REFIRE S THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT CONVECTION NAM12 IS HINTING AT TONIGHT S. OTHERWISE MORNING STRATOCU WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL WV...WHERE THE RAIN DID NOT HIT. BLENDED IN THE MAV AND ONLY SOME MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...THOUGHT THE MET WAS TOO HIGH. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE MET AND MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE N OF THE FRONT. FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/30 NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JS/26 AVIATION...JSH/TRM

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