Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240603 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid weather continues today with an isolated t-shower possible. Weak front drops through Monday night lingering into Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Another hot and humid day expected. Have similar afternoon temperatures, with slightly higher dewpoints when compared to yesterday. This leads to another day with heat indices around 100, so have opted to issue a heat advisory for most lowland counties. Do need to include a bit of uncertainty with this...as MCS in northwest Indiana could leave some cloud debris which could impact temperatures a bit. Even more impactful would be if an area of showers or thunderstorms survives or redevelops and crosses the northern CWA. More on that below. Speaking of that MCS...most models show it decaying through the morning and not making it to CWA. That has been the overall trend with MCSs the last few nights as well. However, models do indicate that a weak spin associated with the decaying MCS will move across the northern CWA later today. This could be enough to kick off some isolated thundershowers especially with the heating of the day. Keeping a close eye on hi-res models to see if an increase in POPs would be warranted across the north. For now, the hi-res guidance is keeping any more organized feature north of the CWA across northern OH into PA. Weak upper level disturbance continue flowing by tonight...so kept some isolated POPs going across the northwestern CWA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front along with an elongating s/w trof will approach later on Monday with convection chances increasing across the area. As this features approach...the upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere. Torrential downpours with the potential for a bit of training will have to be monitored for localized flooding concerns but it would take over 2 inches in an hour to cause issues. With the front meandering thru at least the S zones Tuesday...have kept some higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Fog beginning to develop in river valleys. Stayed fairly close to the LAMP for fog through this morning, with dense fog in areas. Fog should dissipate shortly after 12Z, with VFR expected today. Isolated t-shower possible this afternoon, and should complex over northern IN survive coverage could be higher. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/24/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032. OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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