Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 128 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm southerly flow through the weekend. Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 128 PM Saturday... Precipitation last night and earlier today most likely moistened the atmosphere further south than the models are indicating. It also left lots of boundaries, some of which are currently obvious on radar and satellite. Therefore will raise pops a bit this afternoon, more than models would indicate. After afternoon/evening precipitation dies off, not much expected in the way of precipitation tonight. Soundings on Sunday indicate that storms will once again have to battle off dry air entrainment to get started. With a bit more moisture available over southeast Ohio and northern WV, will raise pops a bit there. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Saturday... In the warm sector, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm across the northern half of the CWA Sunday. Otherwise just looking at a summer like day with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands. Cold front moves through on Monday with showers and storms. Ahead of the cold front we should have a modestly unstable air mass with decent shear as well. This could lead to at least an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm during the afternoon east of the Ohio River -- as noted by marginal risk from SPC. Have included this in the HWO. In the wake of the cold front, cooler and drier weather moves in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Saturday... The bulk of the long term looks to be influenced by a close upper low developing somewhere across the midwest Thursday into Friday. GFS and ECMWF both show the feature, but handle it differently. Either way it looks like a cool, cloudy and rainy end of the work week. Stuck close to a consensus blend, which despite the model differences, still has likely POPs Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 128 PM Saturday... Outside of some scattered mainly afternoon/early evening thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.