Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190625 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts through this morning with rain. Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1245 AM Monday... A warm front is making its way through the coal fields, and will continue lifting northward through this morning. Adjusted POPs a bit slower than previous forecast and high res models with radar just showing echos making it to the Tug Valley now. However do have some concern that things will accelerate northward, so plan to go through POPs again in a couple hours when radar gives a bit more to latch onto. For now, have likely rain lifting northward, with the exception of keeping chance wording across the western slope downslope area with E to SE low level flow. Temperature wise, have non-diurnal temperatures taking over in the next couple hours with a slow warming trend through sunrise. Did not make any significant changes to high/low for today and tonight with a very mild airmass moving in behind the warm front. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 AM Monday... Bulk of precipitation to start the period to our north, as upper heights build across the eastern U.S. Good southerly flow and building heights across the region will result in temperatures well above normal on Tuesday, with some lowland locations topping out in the lower 80s. Upper ridge breaks down by Wednesday, as a cold front approaches the area. Showers and thunderstorms look likely on Wednesday, with additional rain expected on Thursday, as frontal boundary stalls out across the region, and a wave moves along the front, enhancing precipitation. Heaviest rain during this period looks to be across southeast Ohio, with a good inch or so of rain expected. This could lead to rises on area creeks and streams once again, particularly across southeast Ohio. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 AM Monday... A series of low pressure systems, with heavy rainfall potential are expected Friday through the weekend. Models are still continuing to hit the heaviest precipitation axis across the Ohio River region, and this could lead to additional flooding issues both on area creeks and streams, and main stem rivers, including the Ohio. Have elected to highlight flooding potential into the HWO for the period. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1245 AM Monday... A warm front is currently lifting through the coal fields and will continue northward through early this morning. Expect MVFR ceilings to develop at most TAF sites -- with exception of CRW and CKB where downslope effect should keep clouds a bit higher. Will also see some light rain moving northward through the forecast area, only included restrictions in this at BKW. Winds will gradually pick up and become S to SW for today. Did include some low level wind shear this morning at the lowland sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with the warm front could be lower than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 02/19/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L H H M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H M L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ

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