Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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245 FXUS61 KRLX 192350 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 749 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough brings showers and storms to northern areas through this evening. High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front mid week. Cooler and drier for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 749 PM Saturday... Updated forecast to fine tune the convective band across northern WV and central Ohio for the next several hours. As of 550 PM Saturday... Updated forecast to better handle convection over central OH and northern WV. As of 300 PM Saturday... Surface cold front and upper trough will pass just to our north this afternoon and evening. Currently along the front showers and thunderstorms have been kicking off across Northeast Ohio and pushing into Western PA. Forecast soundings indicate drier air in the midlevels across our Ohio Counties and Northern WV and this will likely damper the convection in our area. However, we are on the fringe of the better moisture and as the trough pushes eastward this afternoon we will see an increase in lapse rates to above 7C/Km and moisture may sag far enough south. Although the strongest storms will be just off to our north, there will be some potential for storms to reach severe limits with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Storms will quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of heating and high pressure pushes in. Clear skies and light winds overnight will make for favorable conditions for dense valley fog to develop. Tomorrow will be dry across the entire area with seasonable temps and mostly sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Zonal upper level flow will hold in place for much of the period. In the lower levels, a broad Bermuda-type high enhances south-westerly flow gradually bringing in moisture and higher temperatures. Lowland highs on Monday will be in the upper-80`s to near 90, even accounting for the brief lapse in solar insulation with the nearby Total Eclipse. Foggy mornings are likely with increasing moisture and weak flow overall. Isolated mountain showers are possible Monday afternoon with the passage of a small disturbance in the otherwise zonal upper level flow... the presence of moisture and forcing, albeit weak, doesn`t allow for completely clear Eclipse conditions. Best viewing conditions with this forecast issuance exist in the lowlands of West Virginia and in eastern Kentucky. Tuesday, an approaching low will introduce modest height falls aloft and greater instability with growing shower and storm activity through the day. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday night through midday Wednesday. Due to its overnight timing, overall severe threat looks low for frontal passage though momentum transfer could bring stronger gusts to the surface. Showers and storms should taper off in the eastern mountains by late afternoon. Behind the front, much cooler and drier conditions will settle in with strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region. Aloft, deep northwest flow originating in Canada will keep weather generally clear with the caveat of low-predictability in subtle disturbances that may drum up isolated precipitation. Northwest flow aloft continues through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 550 PM Saturday... An upper level trough will produce some showers and thunderstorms across central Oh and northern WV this evening. Outside of any storms, expect VFR conditions. Late tonight, some river valley fog can be expected in the mountain valleys. Fog may or may not form in river valleys west of the mountains. Once any fog burns off Sunday morning, VFR conditions can be expected with a cumulus deck. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except low with fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog late tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L M L L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.