Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311849 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 249 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERHAPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCATTERED CU WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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