Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271510 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1010 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET. MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY. USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD. FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO MVFR/VFR AT MOST SITES BY 13-14Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT BKW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A CLIPPER EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN TODAY. FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE RUNNING MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L M PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER WV MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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