Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311437 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1037 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH TODAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1030 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK SAVE FOR REMOVAL OF SCHC POPS NORTH CENTRAL WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PREV DISCN... 5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH PRIMARY AXIS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS LEADING TO SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE WILL MAKE APPROACH TO SOUTHERN COALFIELDS...AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BY TONIGHT. NOTED A WEAK S/W WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OH KICKING OFF A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HINT THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SOME LATE MORNING MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE AROUND TO HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. RELIED ON BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... REALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS CONSISTS OF A WEAK BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...WITH UPPER IMPULSES RIDING UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM PERSISTS AS THE WESTERN OUTLIER WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FARTHER EAST WITH THESE IMPULSES. MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED RAINS WILL BE FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. SO WE MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER AND MORE DIURNAL POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL STILL ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE 70S EAST TO THE LOWER 80S WEST. THINK THUNDER CHANCES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE OF A CHANCE OR SCATTERED NATURE. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY POTENTIAL WATER PROBLEMS WOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THINGS SHOULD START IMPROVING LATER SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MORNING RIVER FOG BURNS OFF TO SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS MORNING. WEAK GRADIENTS LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM INVOF OF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS... OTHERWISE REMAINING PERIOD WILL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING FOG. POSSIBILITY OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INVOF KEKN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/31/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...KMC/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KMC

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