National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

-- Highlight Changed Discussion --

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221837
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE UNTIL MORNING.

CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT
OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS

National Weather Service National Headquarters