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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 272342
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
642 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS
STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY WET.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO
ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY
THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO
CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED
BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL
SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR
SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.

CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET
CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.  LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST
PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE
TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN VA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS ARE
EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AFT 12Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE
STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY . MORNING IN
SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH