Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290523 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 123 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING CALM...AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WILL MOVE LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY SOME SHOWERS WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER TWO APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR COLD FRONT NUMBER ONE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT. EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WHICH GIVES A NOD TO A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO EASTER WEEKEND. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A DEEPENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A S/W TROF GOES NEGATIVE TILT. THE RESULTING STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LLJ MAY PRODUCE A HEALTHY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH IT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER COOL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 03Z...CIG AND VISBY VALUES LOWER AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BYE THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MVFR CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/29/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KMC

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