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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 301849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH THERE...WILL
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  NAM12
HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON THIS
IDEA SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY IN A NARROW BAND MOVING ACROSS.

THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN WITH LESS CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTER LATER
TONIGHT AND THU SAVE FOR THE POST-RAIN EFFECTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
IT AND THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS THAT WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE AXIS
OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY AS WE
ARE NEARING IF NOT ENTERING FOG SEASON.  A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THU ONCE THE MORNING FOG IS GONE.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MAY BRING CONVECTION INTO SW
VA AS THU DRAWS TO A CLOSE THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED CLOSE TO LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE ON LOWS
TONIGHT AND STRAIGHT UP GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THU...AS H85 VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO 14C SUPPORT AT LEAST LOWER 80S LOWLANDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK UP INTO THE 60S AREA
WIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AIDING IN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER...INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK WITH THE DISTURBANCE...AND THUS HIGHER POPS ACROSS WESTERN
ZONES. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON/HEATING HOURS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER EARLIER NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN AXIS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  TAFS MAY
NEED AMENDED FOR THUNDER AND MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IF IT APPEARS
A THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK OVER AN AIRPORT.  OTHERWISE THE VCTS / CB
GROUPS DEFINE THE TIME BRACKETS FOR THE DIFFERENT AIRPORTS.

CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW DENSE VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THU MORNING...THE
DAY WILL FEATURE NEITHER MORNING CU NOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO VFR IS
FCST.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME W TO NW ONCE THE AXIS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.  A THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.  THE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN LIGHT W TO SW
ON THU.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATOCU MAY OR MAY NOT POP UP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A THUNDERSTORM COULD DIRECTLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT.  THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM