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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 101808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
202 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MILD AIR DOMINATES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WNW
ALOFT. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSES WEDNESDAY. COLD
THURSDAY. WARMING FRIDAY. COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SPRING FEVER ALERT.

THOUGH HAVING DIFFICULTY FIGURING EXTEND/COVERAGE OF ANY LOWER
CLOUDS FORMING ON THE WESTERN SLOPES 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING AND EVAPORATING TOWARD 15Z.  THE LAST OF THE MONDAY MORNING
STRATUS EVAPORATED OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BEFORE 18Z TODAY.  WILL
INCLUDE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ON EITHER SIDE OF
DAWN...MAINLY IN WV.  THINKING 12Z NAM A BIT OVERDONE THOUGH ON THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

ALSO WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERNIGHT...COULD STILL
RESULT IN PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS.  WILL LEAVE POP AROUND 10 PERCENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE.  THOUGH WITH CLOUD COVERAGE IN
QUESTION FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND WIND STIRRING ON
HILLTOPS...THAT COMPOUNDS LOW TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT.

EVEN WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...DEW POINTS ALSO CREEP
HIGHER.  SO MINIMUM RH MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS INCREASE TUESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HAVE TEMPERATURES WARMING CONSIDERABLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY
IN WAR AIR ADVECTION/STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT DO HAVE CONCERNS
THAT THESE VALUES MAY BE OVERDONE A TOUCH WITH THE AGGRESSIVE CLOUD
FORECAST. MAY NEED TO KNOCK THESE BACK A COUPLE IN UPCOMING
FORECASTS...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILL TOPS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

NAM IS SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FIRST OVER THE COAL FIELDS
AND TRI STATE AREA BEFORE THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN MAKE IT IN
TO THE WESTERN ZONES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. HAVE THE POPS BEGINNING
AROUND THE 06Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...RAMPING TO CATEGORICAL FAIRLY
QUICKLY.

LIFTED INDICES IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE SUGGEST THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSAGE SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS THE CENTRAL AREA RUNS THROUGH
THE CWA AROUND THE 15Z-18Z HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WIND SWITCH
AND THE RESULTANT COLA AIR ADVECTION.

THIS BEGINS THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT
BY THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP TO FREEZING...THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OUT WITH ONLY NORTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT OVER. EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...DO NOT HAVE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

LOWLAND TEENS AND MOUNTAIN SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UPSLOPE IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS PRECIPITATION A BIT...BUT WITH
LAKES STILL MOSTLY FROZEN...DO NOT EXPECT A MAJOR CONTRIBUTION. ANY
COLD AIR ADVECTION/UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ON THURSDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB SETS IN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...USE A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS
ALLOWS FOR A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CONFIDENCE WAS LOWERED TO MEDIUM...DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT
OF ANY LOWER CLOUDS FORMING AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT FORMING 06Z TO 14Z
TUESDAY BEFORE EVAPORATING 15Z TO 18Z.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT AGL IN THE WESTERN
SLOPES.  BEST CHANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL WV INCLUDING CKB VCNTY INTO
NRN MOUNTAIN VCNTY OF EKN.  OTHERWISE...JUST SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT.

SOME MVFR IN HAZE ALSO POSSIBLE 08Z TO 14Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASS WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING SNOW SHOWERS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ALSO LIKELY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB