-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
671
FXUS61 KRLX 100220
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1020 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue due to a
meandering frontal boundary. Hot and muggy conditions prevail
through the weekend into the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1020 PM Wednesday...

Previous forecast remains on track. No changes needed at this
time.

As of 607 PM Wednesday...

After coordination with SPC, decided to cancel Severe
Thunderstorm Watch at 411 PM. However, radar is showing
additional convection moving into our area from KY and OH.
Expect this convection to diminish in coverage and intensity
this evening. Localized heavy downpours still possible through
this evening.

As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of southwest Virginia
   and the foothills and mountains of West Virginia until 10 PM.

 * Flash flooding concerns arise through this evening as
   repetitive showers and storms pass over already compromised
   soils.

Active weather is ongoing this afternoon as the forecast area
remains planted within an unstable atmosphere due to passing
frontal boundaries. At the time of writing, a few strong to
severe storms were being closely monitored in addition to flash
flood warnings within the southern coalfields and the Ohio River
Valley.

Due to the strong nature of storms already observed today, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be in effect for the eastern
extent of our forecast area until this evening as enough
destabilization has transpired to help maintain storms as they
press into this part of the area. Storms will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and hail, along with possible
rotation as we see an increase in shear today in comparison to
the past few days.

Heavy downpours accompanying today`s convection has already led
to around an inch to inch and a half in rain across the board,
with local amounts as high as two and a half inches. Given how
compromised the ground has become over the past few days due to
daily showers and storms, the opportunity for localized flash
flooding will be on the rise.

Showers and storms will grow slimmer in coverage and intensity
as the evening wears on due to the loss of daytime heating and
the leading edge of storms traveling into the Mid-Atlantic
region. Afterwards, excess moisture will once again be conducive
for river valley fog late tonight into Thursday morning. After a
quiet few hours in the wake of morning fog erosion, renewed
precipitation will transpire for the afternoon and evening.
Current projections keep the bulk of severe weather east of the
Appalachians and the best chance for excessive rainfall along
the spine of the mountains and eastward.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Daily opportunities for showers and storms continue through the
forecast period as a series of frontal boundaries peruse the
area. As convective temperatures are reached each day, coupled
with dew points rising into the upper 60s/70s, scattered
activity will flourish through the course of the afternoon and
evening hours. As soil conditions continue to be compromised by
daily heavy downpours, the potential for high water issues will
grow more widespread. Storms then settle down across the
Central Appalachians late at night, but lingering excessive
moisture will yield river valley fog during the predawn hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Active weather looms for the end of the weekend into the start
of next week as surface frontal boundaries sail across the area.
The trend will remain of showers and storms sparking during peak
heating hours and diminishing in coverage after sunset with the
loss of instability and activity pushing east of the mountains.
Daytime temperatures and dew points remain consistent through
the extended period, yielding hot and muggy conditions for the
middle of July.
Amendments may be warranted today in the
event a storm passes close by to a TAF site.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 731 PM Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and
intensity this evening. Strong convection will continue to
affect the area and some of our terminals through this evening.
Expect brief periods of IFR/LIFR visibility under these showers
or storms. Post rainfall IFR/MVFR ceilings will probably
develop early tonight into Thursday morning. Dense fog will be
possible as well over areas that received recent precipitation.

Any fog that does form will gradually erode after daybreak and
give way to another day conducive for afternoon showers and
storms.

Light and variable winds will become calm overnight tonight, and
then light and variable on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving conditions this evening
may vary from forecast. Timing and extent of IFR ceilings under
low stratus may vary from forecast. Fog could be more
widespread and dense overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  THU 07/10/25
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers
and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours, each day through the weekend. IFR fog possible during
the overnights.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ