Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051043 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 543 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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630 AM UPDATE... FORECAST ON TRACK. HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO KANAWHA VALLEY FROM SE KY...AND THIS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR ARE POSSIBLE FROM HTS TO CRW AND IN THE COAL FIELDS UP TO 8 AM. PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW... 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4 TO 7 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS HEADLINE. THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0 PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND WARMER TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE GROUND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY FCST. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N. A POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH. LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD VALLEY SEPARATION. OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS. BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS. OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z. SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M M H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ009>011. OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066- 067-075-076-083>087. KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103. VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...30

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