Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011958 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DIURNAL HEATING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST. THESE WILL BE SLOW MOVING...BUT GENERALLY SMALL IN TERMS OF SURFACE AREA AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS MAKES THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST TRICKY...AND SUBSEQUENT VALLEY FOG FORMATION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT KEEP THE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GROUND HAS HAD SOME TIME TO DRY OUT...WHICH KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES GOING FOR THE LOWLANDS. WILL KEEP IT IN THE UPPER 80S RANGE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...FIGURING INSOLATION IS A NECESSITY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EQUINOX. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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THE WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE...BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE WEAK MID LEVEL...500 MB...VORT MAX THAT WAS IN INDIANA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT THE START OF THIS SHORT TERM. ALL 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW ANOTHER 500 MB VORT MAX IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES NEAR WISCONSIN AT THAT TIME/00Z THURSDAY. IN SUCH A WEAK FLOW...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...HARD TO DETERMINE IF THAT WESTERN GREAT LAKE VORT MAX WILL ACTUALLY REACH OUR VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. EVEN THE 12Z GFS SHOWING AFTERNOON HEATING RESULTS IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL BETWEEN 35 AND 40 THSD...SO WILL BE MORE LIBERAL WITH THE 20 AND 30 POPS USING AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE SLOW MOVING CONVECTION. WITH THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SE FLOW...WILL LEAVE POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE AREAS...WITH MORE CLOUDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO DENT THE RIDGE BY DAY 7/TUESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THE FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT FOR DAY 4/SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...CREATING HAVOC FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH DAWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...BUT COULD SEE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT MAY HAMPER VALLEY FOG FORMATION. GOING ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE AND WILL PUT VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON LAMP GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/30/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...KTB/JW LONG TERM...FB/KTB AVIATION...26

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