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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 051043
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
543 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE GIVES DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK. HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO KANAWHA VALLEY FROM SE
KY...AND THIS WILL HEAD OFF INTO THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS
LATER THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR ARE
POSSIBLE FROM HTS TO CRW AND IN THE COAL FIELDS UP TO 8 AM.

PREVIOUS FORECAST BELOW...
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS NE KY AND ALONG THE OH
RIVER AS OF 08Z. SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE COAL FIELDS INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY AS EXPECTED WITH MORE SLEET MIXING IN. THIS SHOULD
TURN TO ALL SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. HAVE UPDATED TOTALS TO
REFLECT WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED. THIS
BRINGS STORM TOTAL IN THE 10 TO 14 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND
ALONG THE OH RIVER...8 TO 10 IN THE N LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS...4
TO 7 ARND CRW METRO AREA...AND 3 TO 5 COAL FIELDS/SW VA/SE WV. OUR
SNOW FORECAST GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER THE NEWS
HEADLINE.

THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. THINK
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY AND LARGE. THIS PRESENTS AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. UNDERCUT ALL
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS NE KY/SE OH/W WV WHERE THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP BELOW 0
PRETTY EASILY. SOME OF OUR COLDER SPOTS IN THESE AREAS WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR -10F. IF IT WERENT FOR ONGOING HIGH WATER IN THESE
LOCATIONS...THEY COULD EVEN DIP LOWER. THINK METRO AREAS ALONG THE
OH RIVER WILL BE WARMER GIVEN THE ONGOING HIGH WATER ON THE
OHIO...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
WARMER TEMPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE PREVENTS ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW ON THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ON
THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET SPELLS BASICALLY A TEMP/DEW/SKY
FCST.  A WEAK COLD FRONT AND CORRESPONDING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
CROSS SUN INTO SUN NT...WITH THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS N.  A
POLAR PACIFIC HIGH FOLLOWS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.  A WARM WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE S DAY 7...AS THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE LIFTS N OF THE AREA...ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO TURN SW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH.

LOWS SAT NT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BUT DID A WARM RIDGE/COLD
VALLEY SEPARATION.  OTHERWISE BLENDED IN WPC FOR LITTLE CHANGE ON
LOWS MON AND TUE NIGHTS.  BLENDED IN WPC AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...A LITTLE LOWER SUN AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE COMPARED
WITH PREVIOUS.  OVERALL HAVE A STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EARLY ON
WITH A SLOW MELT GIVEN LOWS AND DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TREND UPWARD DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD PER AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES AND S
TO SE FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF WARM
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...GENERALLY IMPROVING TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 16Z.

SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...30