Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211917 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 317 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS IN MAINLY NORTH BEFORE IT WASHES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE HIGH AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AS IT COULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN LATE TONIGHT AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS EVENING. LIFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAILY PKB TO EKN LINE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO IT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF COULD BE ERODED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS COULD BE ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H M M H H .AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... POSSIBLE MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SINKING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS/JW NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JS

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