Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251421 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 921 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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915 AM UPDATE... UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN SW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THIS EVENING. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. JUST NOW LOOKING AT 12Z NAM ROLLING IN AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 06Z RUN WHICH HAS PRECIP FURTHER W MORE INTO THE LOWLANDS VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS. WILL WAIT TO SEE REMAINDER OF 12Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING A DECISION CONCERNING HEADLINES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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