Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300726 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 305 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MORNING FOG SHOULD LIFT TO LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND BURN OFF. 5H TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW SOME POPCORN VARIETY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN WV AND SE OH. USED BIAS CORRECTED VALUES FOR TEMPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS TEMP FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK BUT SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A DRY AND STILL RATHER MILD THURSDAY IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO RETURN ON SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST WILL THESE DISTURBANCES...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD...TRACK AS THEY RIDE UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GENERAL CONSENSUS...WITH THE NAM A WESTERN OUTLIER...KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE HIGH POPS MOUNTAINS FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD...IN THE LOWER 80S...BECAUSE OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALL CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST NIGHT. CARRYING DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB WITH SITES ALREADY APPROACHING DP CROSSOVER POINTS ALREADY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU. SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NRN WV AND SE OH. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/30/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M M M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KMC

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