Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300821 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 421 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Firmly in warm sector today. Cold front Monday. Upper low with unsettled weather to end the work week. Deepening low pressure system for Thursday and Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Sunday... Fairly quiet weather expected through most of the period. We will be in the warm sector throughout with summer-like temperatures. Expecting highs around 90 across most of the lowlands, with 70s and 80s at higher elevations. With the summer like airmass...cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm today into tonight, so maintained some low end POPs. Most of us should remain dry however. Cold front approaching from the west late in the period, with POPs beginning to ramp up across SE OH during the pre-dawn Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 140 AM Sunday... A cold front crosses the region Monday with showers/storms. The front should move fairly quickly so water concerns are minimal despite soil moisture content. A much cooler air mass arrives Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Sunday... A deep upper level trough will cause cyclogenesis over the mid- Atlantic on Thursday which will bring a wet period for the end of the week into the weekend as bands of precip rotate around the developing low. This will wreak havoc with deterministic temp/precip forecasts this far out, but kept PoPs fairly high for Thu-Sat night.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 145 AM Sunday... Some MVFR fog in place across SE OH into PKB area through sunrise. Warm southerly flow should persist through the TAF period with mainly just some mid to high clouds passing by. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but not enough coverage expected to include in TAFs at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/density of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/30/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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