Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 032323 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 723 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DEW POINTS INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AT 23Z STILL HAVE COLD FRONT NORTH OF PIT...ON WSW...AND MOVING INTO WRN OHIO NEAR DAY. BEST INFLOW OF HIGHER DEW POINTS ON SW FLANK OF COMPLEX NEAR CINCINNATI. FIGURING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SE...INTO NE KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ALSO...HAVE NOT GIVEN UP ON MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS FORMING BETWEEN THE CONVECTION IN SW PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SW OHIO ACTIVITY. FEW CELLS ARE APPROACHING COLUMBUS...AND SHOULD AFFECT OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD MID OHIO VALLEY. FURTHER EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA SAY CRW TO EKN ON SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING...THE DIRURNAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR LESS LIGHTNING...BUT WITH FRONT...COULD NOT REMOVE FROM THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING WITH FEATURES AFFECTING THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WENDESDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WENDESDAY TIMEFRAME...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SW PORTION OF THE CWA...INITIALLY...AND THEN SPREAD THEM NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT. WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON TIMING...TRIED TO TIME POPS WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS SOLUTION. BY WENDESDAY NIGHT...HAVE CHC POPS EVERYWHERE. TEMPERATURES A CONCENUS BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEXT SYSTEM MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS CENTER OF LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FEED IS GOOD WITH THIS STORM AND INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND TOWARD MID OHIO PKB VCNTY 00Z TO 02Z. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT CKB-PKBAND HTS TAF SITES. FURTHER EAST...EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING...ONLY LEFT THE VCTS FOR CRW AND EKN MOSTLY IN THE 02Z TO 05Z TIME FRAME. MOST CEILINGS 3 TO 5 THSD FT WITH LAYERS ABOVE NEAR CONVECTION...WITH VSBY NEAR 3 MILES. HAVE LOWER CEILINS FORMING AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT FRON NW TO SE 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY...THEN LIFTING BFORE 12Z IN PKB-UNI VCNTY...BUT LINGERING THROUGH 17Z IN THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS VCNTY BKW. ALSO SOME MVFR 3 TO 5 MILES VSBY POSSIBLE. IF COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IS LESS...THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBY COULD EASILY HAVE LESS COVERAGE...SO LEFT CONFIDENCE LEVEL AT MEDIUM. HAVE FRONT SLOWING DOWN...FIGURING THE FRONT FROM EKN TO CRW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY AT 12Z TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND 12Z TO 18Z TUESDAY FROM BKW INTO SW VIRGINIA NEAR GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS NEAR THE FRONT...AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...MAY VARY FROM FORECAST AND BE DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS/26 AVIATION...KTB

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