Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221746 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OR THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM PREV FCST PER LATEST GUIDANCE. SOME LINGERING LOW STRATUS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z TUE THIS EVE WILL QUICKLY BE ERODING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS DROPPING GENERALLY INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH SOME LOW/MID 30S FOR THE NORMALLY-FAVORED HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS IN RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT...NOT ANTICIPATING THOSE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FROST HIGHLIGHT...BUT WILL REASSESS AS 12Z DATA COMES IN TODAY. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME FROST AT LEAST IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLD SPOTS HOWEVER...AND WILL AT LEAST CONTINUE PATCHY FROST MENTION IN CURRENT HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TUESDAY AS ITS CENTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH...WITH SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISS VALLEY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NEARLY DUE-NORTH. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY SCATTER...WITH A VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY FOR MOST AND PERHAPS A FEW FLAT-CU IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOWER/MID 60S EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST OF US TO BRING EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES ABOUT 13C UNDER E-SE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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CURRENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY RISE AND/OR SCATTER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS..FIRST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AROUND THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME...FOLLOWED BY THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 22Z-23Z. HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DENSE VALLEY FOG BY AND AFTER 06Z TUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE JUST A BIT MORE IN QUESTION FOR EKN WHERE TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID 30S MAY RESULT IN FROST AS OPPOSED TO FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP FOG AT EKN AND ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS. ANY FOG AND/OR REDUCTION IN VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BTWN 14Z-15Z TUE...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BEHAVIOR AND EVENTUAL BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS MAY VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...50

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