Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 282338 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 738 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure exits tonight. High pressure passes Wednesday. A warm front pushes in Thursday, ahead of a system that crosses Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 205 PM Tuesday... Cold front will be pushing across the area this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers associated with it. Behind the front there is an extensive stratus field that will likely persist into tomorrow morning at the least. This will keep overnight lows generally in the 40s across the region. Conditions will start to improve tomorrow as ridging builds in from the west. Skies will clear from west to east through the day. Depending on how fast we clear out will determine how warm we will get. For now, have decided to go slightly above MAV/MET guidance for highs, but if clouds linger longer this could be bust. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 PM Tuesday... Upper level ridge crosses Wednesday night and Thursday. Mid and high warm advection cloud spills over the ridge Wednesday night, emanating from the next southern stream upper level low approaching from the west. That system may bring rain Thursday, but the bulk of the rain with this system is more likely overnight Thursday night and Friday. As a warm front pushes northward through the area on Thursday, moisture increases and, coupled with the heating of the day and moderate to strong mid level flow, could lead to late day thunderstorms across southwest portions of the forecast area. This activity should then wane with the loss of heating Thursday night. Thunder is again possible Friday afternoon over the lowlands, but with a CAD wedge holding up the warm front, surface based instability is not likely to be realized farther east. The upper low pushes east Friday night, leaving just upslope rain showers in and near the mountains, and lots of clouds area wide, by Saturday morning. Central guidance looked good for temperatures in this continued above normal spring pattern. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 420 PM Tuesday... Exiting low pressure brings clouds, and upslope rain showers in and near the mountains, on Saturday. Loss of heating and high pressure building in dries the weather out quickly Saturday night, and the dry weather continues on Sunday. The next in the parade of southern stream bowling balls crosses early next week. Central guidance looked good for temperatures in this continued above normal spring pattern. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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00Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday... As of 710 PM Tuesday... Cold front currently along a HTS-CRW-CKB line will exit the southern mountains by 04Z. Widely scattered light showers accompany the front. Not enough confidence to include in any of the TAFs outside of VCSH at this time, and will end showers with passage of the front. Expansive MVFR ceilings both ahead of and especially behind the front. These MVFR ceilings will then lower to IFR ceilings area wide 04Z to 07Z, first in the higher elevations, but VSBY should generally remain MVFR or better at the major TAF sites, except BKW with IFR VSBY after 07Z. Light west wind ahead of front becoming light northwest behind the front. Conditions will improve after sunrise tomorrow as high pressure pushes in, first in the west and north. By 19Z look for clearing in the north, and ceilings VFR in the south. Expect mostly clear skies by 00Z Thursday area wide. Winds will be north 5 to 10 KTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset of IFR ceilings tonight and improvement Wednesday morning may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H L L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JMV

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