Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250622 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 122 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses pre- and post- dawn Saturday morning, followed by cooler weather for the weekend. A couple systems next week with precipitation chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1010 PM Friday... Prefrontal line of strong storms poised to cross into our southeast Ohio counties in the next 1 to 2 hours. Much of the activity over the last few hours has been strong to only marginally severe. The prospects for severe wx thankfully appear to be waning overnight with southeast Ohio standing the best chance for some damaging wind gusts in bowing segments within the line. As of 645 PM Friday... See latest PNS/RER for info today`s records, February all time records, and all time record meteorological winter highs. Forecast generally in good shape. I tweaked hourly pops using latest HRRR as an aid. There is still a concern for locally damaging wind gusts after midnight across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and western West Virginia. The mid level capping currently in place will erode overnight with the approach of the front. With steepening low level lapse rates along with the low dewpoint spreads in place...concern exist for a congealing QLCS bringing down strong downdrafts. As of 315 PM Friday... After a record breaking warm afternoon and a dry, mild evening, a strong cold front still appears on track to bring a line of showers and thunderstorms through the area just ahead of it overnight into Saturday morning. The main convective threat is wind damage as super cells that form upstream evolve into a fast moving squall line, but the hail and even tornado threat could not be entirely ruled out if the low level shear can give rise to sufficient mesoscale organization. Dry slot behind the cold front will bring a quick end to the showers and thunderstorms from west to east on Saturday, but wrap around precipitation will then spread into northern portions of the area later Saturday afternoon. These rain showers will start turning over to snow showers late, as much colder air advects in. Used a blend of primarily near term sources for hourly temperatures in the warm air ahead of the front tonight, and in the cold advection behind the front on Saturday. Lows tonight will be close to or equal to highs Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Friday... Cold air advection on W/NW flow will bring the chance for upslope snow showers across the mountains through early Sunday morning. Moisture is limited so accumulations will be very light with generally less than an inch. High pressure builds over the area on Sunday and although we remain dry it will be cool relatively speaking. High pressure should hold through most of the day Monday, however a southern stream system will approach Monday evening and showers enter SW West Virginia by 00Z Tuesday out ahead of a warm front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 335 PM Friday... Zonal flow aloft will make for a progressive and active pattern next week. Our first system brings showers Monday night into Tuesday. The next system will arrive mid week as low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes drag a cold front through the region. Behind this colder air arrives again on NW flow and this will bring a chance for snow showers across the mountains towards the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 645 PM Friday... Line of convection now near the HTS-PKB corridor and should affect all of the terminals by 12Z this morning. Characteristics are heavy rain and wind gusts in excess of 40kts for the most part with half inch hail possible as well. Low level flow off the surface increases to around 50-60kts up towards the 5kft level. Cold front still lingers back towards ZZV and LHQ. Winds will gust ahead of the front even without convection, and behind the front as well with winds veering to a more west northwesterly direction heading into Saturday. As far as restrictions go, IFR visibilities likely at the onset of convection wth mainly MVFR ceilings. Beyond the frontal passage, cold air advection brings ceilings back in, deteriorating to MVFR after 20Z Saturday, especially in the mountains. Light snow will develop on the back end of the forecast in the EKN area with MVFR visibilities developing after 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection/storms to vary. Wind gust extremes to vary in convection/storms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26

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