Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211441 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1041 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward this afternoon. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold front approaches by mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As Of 1040 AM Thursday... Forecast on track. As of 630 AM Thursday... As upper level low heads east, may still get a pop up shower across the mountains and southern coal fields this afternoon and evening. Otherwise looking at a dry day with plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs will generally be 5-10 degrees above normal. River valley fog expected again tonight under mostly clear skies. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 AM Thursday... High pressure remains in control with mainly dry conditions, and above normal temperatures through the weekend. An isolated shower or storm could develop along the eastern mountains due to diurnal heating and orographic effect. River valley fog expected in mornings. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... High pressure will remain in control at least through mid week with dry conditions. On Thursday, a cold front reaches southeast Ohio to spread showers and thunderstorms east across the CWA. At this point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain minimal. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 AM Thursday... The fog should gradually break up 13Z-15Z with VFR expected for the remainder of the day. Some pop up showers are possible across the mountains and southern coal fields. Winds will generally be light, out of the north to northeast. Another round of river valley fog expected tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary. Could get a passing shower at BKW this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H L H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.