Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011719 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 119 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/FLOW TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT STREAKS ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR WEEKEND. REINFORCING FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... STRATUS DECK IS SLOW TO LIFT/BREAKUP TODAY LENDING TOWARDS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE ARE SEEING. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MESO LOW ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SITUATED IN EASTERN OHIO. REGARDLESS...MOST STRATUS IS BREAKING/LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS DECK... SO WE STILL MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE CURRENTLY CLOUDY PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA NEAR KENNA AND BUFFALO. A RETURN TO FOGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET ON THE WEATHER FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A DECENT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RELATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN BEHIND IT. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. SOME DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE CMC IS THE FASTEST...AND APPEARS TO FAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH THE NAM LAGGING BEHIND. WENT MAINLY WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW IS PRETTY FAST...SO EXPECT INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BE FAST MOVING. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL HAVE GOOD FORCING WITH THE FRONT. SO HAVE DECENT CHANCES OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THE BEST SHEAR LAGGING WELL BEHIND...AGREE WITH SPC ANALYSIS THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ALL THAT LIKELY. BUT WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT...ANY OUTFLOW WILL ALREADY HAVE A DECENT SYNOPTIC VELOCITY TO FEED OFF OF. ANTICIPATING AN SPS COULD BE NEEDED FOR STRONGER CELLS...WILL INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW MENTION IN HWO. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING SATURDAY...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. PROBABLY COULD HAVE INCREASED TO CHANCE BASED ON MODELS SHOWING GOOD UPPER LEVEL FORCING...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...BLENDED IN MET GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TRANSITIONED TO A WPC/BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS BLEND IN THE VERY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE AREA DOES REMAIN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE SWD EXTENT OF THE L/W DOES RETREAT. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO TIME THE COOLEST WEATHER OTHER THAN THE INITIAL SHOT SAT NT...WHICH IS NOW CODED UP AS THE COOLEST PART OF THE FCST. THIS INCLUDES POTENTIALLY FROSTY TEMPERATURES FOR THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS AND IN SE OH COME SUN MORNING. THE NEXT REINFORCING S/W TROUGH BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO ITS TIMING ALONG WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND IT SO COULD NOT REALLY DEPICT NEXT COOL DOWN EVEN ON DAY 7 NT. BLENDED IN WPC AND THE LOW MEX FOR LOWS SAT NT...AGAIN ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE. WILL NOT HWO FROST DAY 4 NT THOUGH PENDING HOW FAVORABLE SAT NT TURNS OUT FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. BLENDED IN WPC TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CERTAIN BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS FROM KHTS TO KCKB. MOST SHOULD ERODE AWAY BEFORE NIGHTFALL. WITH FORECASTED CLEARING SKIES WE ARE BRINGING IFR FOG TO THE VALLEY TAF SITES. THOUGH THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXTENT AND TIMING BECAUSE OF THE SLOW BURN OFF TODAY. PLUS GENERAL ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY HUMID AND CLOSE TO SATURATION AT MULTIPLE LEVELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A STRATUS DECK COULD REFORM AND SLIDE SOUTH...REMOVING THE FOG THREAT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JW

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