Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231633 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1233 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... One last hot day is on tap for today, before a cool front drops temperatures slightly for the weekend. Another cold front will arrive late Monday or Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 840 AM Friday... Will make a few minor tweaks to high temperatures this afternoon. As of 710 AM Friday... Forecast on track... As of 355 AM Friday... One more hot day is on tap today, with surface high pressure remaining in place, and upper level ridging just to the west. This would be the tenth day with a high of 90 or better at CRW, and it may be the last for awhile, as long as the cold front is fast enough on Saturday. The cold front will bring some cloud in from the north overnight tonight, which may in turn interrupt the formation of valley fog, or cause it to thin out early, across the northern tier of the forecast area. Inherited highs for today were above guidance but close to highs yesterday, and were accepted with little change. Lows tonight were close to guidance and a few ticks higher than this morning, especially north ans west, and were again accepted with little change. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 355 AM Friday... A weak cold front will sag and stall over the southern portion of the area and become non-existent. Mostly clouds will be associated with it. Only difference will be the cooler air behind it will filter in for the weekend. The next cold front is expected to move into the area by late in the afternoon on Monday and continue to cross the area Monday night. Moisture is lacking and should only see convection with the front as it passes. Temps will be noticeably cooler throughout.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 12:25 pm Friday... Cold front exits by Tuesday afternoon taking any precip with it. Much cooler and drier air works its way in behind it as high pressure builds across the region by Tuesday night. A secondary trof axis rotates across the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday night and Wednesday. Best chances of any precip will be north of the CWA and we should only see clouds with this. Cool high pressure will start to build across the region Wednesday night and for the rest of the week. Cooler and more fall like temperatures are expected as well.
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&& .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 710 AM Friday... High pressure remains in control of the weather with mostly clear sky and light wind. Dense river valley fog did not impact as many TAF sites as previous sites, the banks staying just below the runway plateau at CRW, for example. This may be an indication that valley fog tonight may not impact many sites, and if it does, will be brief. EKN is the exception, with a more persistent fog. Otherwise expect a VFR day today, but a cold front approaching from the north toward dawn Saturday will bring down some stratocu, which may thin out the fog early. Surface flow will be light and variable to light northwest today and then calm tonight, all beneath light northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High...except medium in fog first hour this morning and then again tonight.. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of fog forming tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... Morning dense valley fog is possible through Monday, and then Monday night in showers and post-rain fog and stratus.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...TRM

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