Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 138 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances aloft in an upper level ridging pattern. Slow moving convection with heavy downpours Friday/Saturday. Southeast flow may increase shower coverage late Sunday or Monday especially over mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Area of showers associated with upper disturbance across eastern Kentucky...southern WV and southwest VA...will continue to slowly track eastward-southeastward through the day. To the west...line of convection associated with another upper disturbance across central Indiana/southern IL/western KY is progged to continue eastward...and may affect ne KY and southeast Ohio counties late...although by the time it arrives...should be weakening with the loss of any heating...and an overall lack of instability across the area. Increased pops for a couple of hours this evening across northeast KY and adjacent southeast Ohio and WV counties. Otherwise...expect an overall lull in the activity late tonight. Another warm and muggy night is on tap again...with dew points in the 60s. May see a little more fog formation tonight than last night...particularly in any areas that receive rain. Friday looks to be another hot and muggy day as upper ridge rebuilds across the eastern U.S. No significant waves are expected to move into the area...and thinking that best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across the mountains due to differential heating. Did add in slight chance to chance across parts of the lowlands Friday afternoon and evening in case anything moves off the mountains in the southeasterly flow. One thing to note...is the overall flow is very light...less than 5kts through the profile...and expect little movement with the storms. Thus...with the high moisture content of the air...storms will be heavy dumpers...and could cause quick rises on area streams and creeks and water issues in low lying spots. This is something that will need to be monitored.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Very weak flow on Friday...tries to increase just slightly on Saturday...with no fronts in sight. As a result...no significant mid level disturbances to latch onto. Will try to have the higher pops Friday over the central mountains counties...and forming first...with the differential heating. As mentioned yesterday... can still picture convection over the southern mountains late afternoon trying to drift north into southern coal fields and toward Hts or Crw. So left chance pops over the southern lowlands well into the warm Friday evening. Localized/isolated downpours can occur under this slow moving convection on Friday afternoon and evening with precipitable water around 1.5 inches. Forecast model soundings showing more instability Saturday afternoon...while drier air aloft tries to move northwest into the mountain counties during Saturday afternoon and evening. So chance pops just as high in the western lowlands Saturday...when compared to mountains. Again...isolated downpours Saturday afternoon and evening...probably western lowlands. On Sunday we are still looking south and southeast. Disturbance along Carolina coast may increase moisture late Sunday into Monday and hold down temperatures...especially along eastern slopes. Temperature wise...forecast a few more 90 degree reading Friday afternoon if convection holds off until evening for the southern river valleys like Logan Louisa...Charleston...and Huntington. At this distance...with weak downslope winds west of the mountains... we did not lower maximum temperature forecast on Sunday in the western lowlands as much as...say the 00z Gfs mex guidance suggests. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Summer like weather will continue during the period as an upper level ridge remains over the area. Warm afternoons and cool nights will be the rule. There could be some convection Saturday night due to afternoon heating and juicy airmass. The upper level ridge hold until Sunday before drifting off the east coast. Continue with low chance for the remainder of the period especially during the afternoons. A developing tropical system approaches South Carolina by Tuesday morning. It is a little early to have high confidence on the track of this system. Will monitor the development and track of this tropical system. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Isold showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon...lasting through around 23Z. Expect brief heavy downpours and brief MVFR conditions in vicinity of storms. Outside of storms...VFR conditions with light surface winds. Overnight...patchy MVFR and IFR valley fog developing generally after 07Z...with VFR conditions returning with light surface winds after 13Z. Isold convection possible again towards end of TAF period across mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More convection may develop this afternoon than currently forecast. Fog may not form overnight...particularly if little clearing of cloud deck occurs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS hydrologist is working to correct this problem. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL HYDROLOGY...ktb

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