Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 301227
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
827 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
Weak high pressure today. Cold front slides through Wednesday
night. Drier and cooler weather to end the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...
Weak high pressure over the area today...but some moisture remains
in the mountains. Therefore...can not rule out a few afternoon or
evening showers or thunderstorms. Will continue with small pops in
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 AM Tuesday...
Main player for the short term is a cold front which will cross
the forecast area Wednesday night. For the day Wednesday, we will
be in the transition time period between current high pressure
exiting and cold front approaching from the northwest. Models in
fairly good agreement with Wednesday being dry across much of the
CWA. Do have some low end POPs across the mountains during the
afternoon. Also have POPs leaking into far northwest zones late
Wednesday afternoon into evening. Showers and storms associated
with the cold front will cross Wednesday evening and overnight.
Have POPs lingering into Thursday afternoon across the southern WV
mountains and southwest VA with 500mb shortwave trough crossing
during this time frame...however moisture may already be meager low
to support much.
Wednesday will be another warm day, however behind the front much
of the CWA will struggle to reach 80 on Thursday...with a
comfortable night expected Thursday night.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 820 AM Tuesday...
Used WPC forecast for this part of the package. High pressure will
build across the area Friday night...and then remain in control
through the remainder of the period. This should result in dry
weather...with a warming trend.
WPC temperatures looked reasonable and were followed.
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 605 AM Tuesday...
After the fog lifts this morning...expect a VFR cumulus field in the
mountains and portions of the coal fields...with clear skies
elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening in the mountains. Outside of the
precipitation...VFR skies will prevail this evening. Dense river
valley fog will again form later Tuesday night.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. IFR
possible in areas of fog Wednesday morning.