Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131821 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 221 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS STRONG...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. QUITE COOL MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CONVECTIVE WATCH IN PLACE OVER THE BULK OF SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE FROM NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SOUTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH AND LOSING SPEED INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE CLEARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A BULK SHEAR 0-6KM MAX THROUGH THE WATCH AREA AT 40KTS. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES THANKS TO DEWPOINT INCREASES AND HEATING RESPECTIVELY. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE BULK OF THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...MAYBE A TOUCH HIGH ON THE BIASED NAM...BUT HIGH NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE IGNORED. THE CULPRIT FOR THIS TONIGHT WILL BE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. WE ARE INCLUDED FOR THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...SEE THE NAM DEPICTING POCKETS OF THETA E CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAINING PRECIPITATION OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE THE KEY FOR ANY ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. NO WATCH HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 2-3 WEEKS. LOTS OF ROOM IN THE GROUND AND CREEKS AND RIVERS FOR RAINFALL. BUT RAINFALL RATES MAY TRUMP THAT AS WELL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHERN ZONES AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY...WITH CAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ON MONDAY...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES. STILL THINKING WIDESPREAD WATER ISSUES WONT BE A CONCERN DUE TO OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS...AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORMS. HOWEVER...IF AN AREA IS REPEATEDLY HIT...WATER PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE HWO. WINDS PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH HAIL WITH THE STRONG UPDRAFTS EXPECTED. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AS IT DOES SO...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE OVER MOST OF OUR AREA FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK. THUS...THERE WILL ALSO BE JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK PERIOD IN THE MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WELL...THIS IS ONE OF THOSE EXTRAORDINARILY DIFFICULT SET OF TAFS TO DELIVER WITH THE ATTEMPTS OF BEING AS DETERMINISTIC AS POSSIBLE WITHOUT BROAD BRUSHING THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH TSRA WHICH HELPS NO ONE. CONVECTIVE WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE PKB TERMINAL. PRIMARY THREATS ARE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING...AND WITH DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY ON THE RISE...AN EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL SEE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS TIME. IT WILL BE HOLDING UP ITS PROGRESS...KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THERE WERE EFFORTS TO KEEP THE TSRA AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM SO AS NOT TO HAVE 12 STRAIGHT HOURS OF TSRA IN THE TAFS. UNFORTUNATELY...COULD NOT LEAVE THE MENTION OUT...SO THE VCTS/CB WORDING WAS USED. USED SOME EARLY ON CLUES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...WITH A COUPLE OF TEMPO GROUPS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS FOR PKB AND CKB WITH A LINE ALREADY MOVING WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THESE TERMINALS. ALSO HAVE SOME CELLULAR CONVECTION PEPPERING THE MOUNTAINS...SO NEED VCTS FOR BKW RIGHT NOW. COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT BREAKS IN THE CONVECTION AND TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THAT COULD GO DOWN TO IFR FOG...EVEN IN CLOUDS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR EKN AND CRW. SIMPLY CANNOT ACCOUNT FOR THAT IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. IN THE END...LIKELY GOING TO NEED SOME AMD AND TEMPOS OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. CURRENTLY...DIURNAL MIXING IS BRINGING NON CONVECTIVE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 25KTS. THUNDERSTORMS ASIDE...THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 22Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON WEATHER...LOW TO MEDIUM ON TIMING. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF TSRA WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. MAY HAVE SOME FOG TONIGHT. AMD AND TEMPOS WILL BE NEEDED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND IN POST-RAIN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT MON NT INTO TUE MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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