Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261103 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 603 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through tonight. Warmer with upper level disturbances and rain showers next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 555 AM Sunday... Sky grids received some attention this morning with the quicker clearing along the Ohio River. Light snow continues in the northeast mountains. As of 225 AM Sunday... Zonal flow with surface high pressure settles in for the near term, turning slightly southwesterly with vorticity maxima towards 12Z Monday, and warm frontal influences at the surface. Significant weather through 00Z is limited to the eroding stratocumulus deck, lastly exiting the northeast zones and near normal temperatures across the area. After 00Z, have to introduce slight chance POPs back into the fold with the overrunning over the western zones. Lower confidence here with actual measurable precipitation, and may need to use sprinkles instead through 12Z Sunday in a future forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... This period will see a warmer and increasingly unsettled pattern. A series of upper disturbances will lift out of the southwestern U.S. and across the Ohio Valley in a broad southwest flow aloft. A weak warm front will lift north Monday, heralding the warmer air. QPF amounts through Tuesday look to be light with rather weak upper disturbances and lack of significant low level forcing. However, an amplifying upper trough sweeps southeastward across the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night, driving a strong cold front through our area. Models are in good agreement with this feature, and will likely be accompanied by widespread showers with a chance for thunderstorms. Warmest day will be Wednesday, in the 70s prior to the arrival of showers. Much colder air will move in behind the front Wednesday night, with much of the precipitation shutting down in the low lands. Precip may end later Wednesday night as high elevation mountain snow showers with little accumulation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 AM Sunday... Models, even at this late in the forecast period, have a clipper type system diving southeastward across the Ohio valley Thursday night into Friday in northwest flow aloft behind the upper trough. The current track of the system would bring wintry precip to mainly the northern half of the area. Thereafter, Canadian high pressure will settle in for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 555 AM Sunday... Conditions improve to VFR with stratocumulus eroding through the first 6 hours of the TAF. mainly clear conditions after 18Z for the part, clouds returning in warm frontal action and disturbances in the 500mb flow aloft. Ceilings to gradually lower as sky cover increases after 03Z tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR at EKN and BKW eroding may vary slightly. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 02/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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