Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211729 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1229 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mild weather this weekend and then strong cold front crosses late Monday with widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front, but turning warmer again late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1220 PM Sunday...Added some slight chance PoP across the south through this afternoon, as we are see a few light showers develop with the overrunning today. Current thinking as that this will line up across the north later this evening and tonight with the warm front. Eventually by tomorrow morning, any threat for rain should be well north of the region, but precip chances will increase across the Ohio Valley later in the afternoon as cold front approaches from the west. As of 845 AM Sunday...Just made some minor changes to sky cover over the next few hours. Early morning visible satellite is showing a large field of stratus across the region and based on latest forecast soundings this should hold through at least early this afternoon. For now, have kept mostly cloudy conditions through the afternoon and into this evening, as guidance is suggesting some drying in the low levels later today. Fingers crossed that maybe a few breaks of sun will pop through the clouds before it sets this evening. As of 600 AM Sunday... Adjusted temperatures into mid morning based on current obs and trends. As of 1240 AM Sunday... Weak lift and overrunning moisture leading to widespread stratus clouds early this morning. Radar showing echos developing -- but no observations showing any precipitation reaching the ground yet. Eventually we will see some areas of drizzle or light rain making it to the ground, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area as a warm front lifts through. The precipitation and lower clouds should gradually drift north of the forecast area late today into tonight. Temperatures will hold fairly steady through the pre-dawn, before another mild day today. Bumped up highs across the coal fields, where we should get some breaks in the clouds this afternoon, otherwise no major changes made. Southerly flow will provide another mild night tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Main change to the overall forecast for the short term is the increase in the sustained winds and gusts, mainly in the post frontal environment. May end up in advisory criteria for wind in the highest elevations Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast timing and QPF amounts. Still not getting any thunder to come out of the weather grids as instability is low, but wind profile certainly details a strong speed and directional shear environment. Will not discount the possibility of thunder completely, however, given the SPC general thunder risk over our area in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. Still very warm Monday ahead of the cold front with guidance in the mid to upper 60s for the lowlands. Drop off in temperature will be sharp behind the front, but the Pacific nature of the system keeps temperatures near normal mid week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Have already the lingering wind, especially in the mountains, carrying over from the short term period. Have some post frontal low level moisture to deal with Tuesday night, a brief lull, and then again late Wednesday and Wednesday night with a quick moving open wave in the flow aloft. There is snow potential, but really playing down any accumulations in the mountains at this point for Tuesday night. Another warm up is expected as high pressure passes to the east of the mountains and puts the region in warm advection/return flow. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM Sunday... MVFR stratus associated with a warm front is generally confined to northern forecast area this afternoon. Can`t rule out possible a quick rain shower or even some drizzle, but not enough confidence to add to the TAFs at this time. Conditions will improve by Monday morning, with VFR expected through at least 18Z Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratus may vary at times today across northern sites. Could get some fog or drizzle tonight across the north, but fog is looking less likely with the cloud cover expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M H L L L CKB CONSISTENCY M H M M M M M H M L L L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible Monday night under rain showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.