Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KRLX 210726
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
326 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Low pressure and its associated cold front exit east of the mountains
through this morning. Upper level system keeps showers going into
the start of the weekend. Re- enforcing cold front Sunday Night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...
An elongated low pressure system will slowly move east across the
eastern mountains today. An associated cold front will push most
of the light rain east of the mountains, but additional rain or
drizzle could continue behind the front.
Continue with high chance PoPs across the area exiting the eastern
mountains by this evening. Abundant clouds will limit afternoon instability
for isolated thunderstorms or none.
Still not real excited about these reaching severe limits, but
cannot rule out and isolated bowing segment with damaging winds
Flow becomes northerly today with occasional gusts. Low stratus
and morning drizzle/rain linger through much of the morning. This
will bring cold and dry airmass to produce below normal
temperatures through tonight.
Went closer to the blend of models for temperatures through the
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will build over the area
from the west Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough and
associated surface low/cold front move out. Rain showers also
taper off from west to east Friday night in the low lands, and in
the mountains Saturday morning as drier air works in. Pressure
gradient between the surface low and high pressure will be tight
over our area through Saturday, so the strong cold air advection
and blustery northwest flow will bring temperatures down to well
below normal Friday night through Saturday. Gusty winds Friday
night and Saturday with temperatures in the 50s for highs Saturday
will make it seem much colder, and some wind gusts in the higher
elevations of the northern mountains may exceed 40 mph. Enough
cold air will get into the northern mountains to change rain
showers to snow showers later Friday night and Saturday morning,
but with little accumulation. Sunday will already begin a rebound
under high pressure and plenty of sunshine to boost temperatures
back into the 60s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM Thursday...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be the dominating
feature through Wednesday, except for a weak and moisture starved
front dropping across the area late Sunday night and Monday
morning. Except for a sprinkle in the northern mountains with the
front, dry weather and near normal temperatures can be expected.
Thursday will see another system approaching from the west, but
with warm temperatures preceding it.
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...
SFC observations show an elongated sfc low pressure overhead
extending northeast into PA. An associated cold front extends
southwest into eastern KY. Widespread MVFR rain is evident in
radar images with light to moderate rainfall. Localized areas of
IFR dense fog are forecasted for HTS and CRW. IFR ceilings are
possible at CRW, HTS and PKB overnight. There is no thunder
overnight, but could reappear this afternoon.
Areas of light rain showers or drizzle will prevail during the
morning hours. Visibilities will improve to 6 miles or better by Friday
midday and afternoon, but the stratus will struggle to climb above
1000 feet across the lowlands.
Light and variable surface flow will become gentle from the
northwest behind the front early this morning, and then become
gusty during the day.
Widespread areas of dense IFR fog possible Saturday and Sunday
morning from 06Z to 13Z timeframe.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in heavier showers and
thunderstorms early on. Timing of frontal passage and drop into
IFR rain/stratus may very...as well as timing of recovery Friday.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR may linger in low stratus in the mountains into Saturday.