Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 310614 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 114 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A COLD AND CLEAR SKY DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN AND LIMITED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...OPTED TO NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AS AREAL COVERAGE IS STILL LACKING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON DIURNAL. AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS SINCE NIGHT IS COLD AND CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...HOWEVER...ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD HELP SUCK UP ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SO NOT GOING WITH MVFR IN TAFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK SAT...MAINLY N. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/31/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MON MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...NONE. OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JW

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.