Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281031 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 530 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY. MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONTS CROSS MONDAY AND THEN NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE NWLY FLOW...HAS HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN WV ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING...AS THE STRATUS DECK SLOWLY ERODES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT...STILL LOOKING AT OVERALL A CLOUDY DAY...AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY FILTERS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND H8 SAT AND SAT NT...IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE E COAST...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE CAN GET 2-3 KFT DEEP...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE TO MEASURE ACROSS NWRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUN NT AND THEN CROSSES ON MON. HAVE A BAND OF LIKELY POPS EITHER SIDE OF WHAT APPEARS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG IT MON. THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE AREA MON NT...TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...WITH COLDER AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. BLENDED IN MET AND CONSENSUS DATA FOR HIGHS FOR LITTLE CHANGE. BLENDED IN GFS BASED MOS AND A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWER HIGHS MON GIVEN A FASTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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5 AM UPDATE... AFTER A SYSTEM PASSES TUE-WED...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES WED NT AND THU PER ISC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SPELLS A COLDER AND DRIER SOLN....USING GFS40 AND CONSENSUS MOS TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES. PREV DISCN... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR 14-15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER 18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 11/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...RPY/TRM AVIATION...SL

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