Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210746 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 246 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through the weekend. Upper trough Sunday. Stronger upper low Sunday night and Monday, exiting Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 730 PM Friday... With only thin cirrus and light winds, have lowered overnight low temperatures in many areas. As of 610 PM Friday... Cumulus clouds have quickly dissipated this evening and cirrus have yet to become very thick. Therefore, lowered sky cover this evening. As of 215 PM Friday... Warm air has surged into the region behind a warm front that passed earlier today. Temperatures have already reached the low 60s across the Southern half of the forecast area. Although it remains mostly cloudy this afternoon, there are some breaks in the clouds and areas that see any persistent sunshine could climb into the upper 60s. Forecast soundings indicate enough low level moisture lingers tonight for mostly cloudy skies to persist. This will also keep us quite mild overnight with lows generally in the low 50s to upper 40s. With the saturated ground, it is possible that we see some fog develop by early Saturday morning, but this will depend on cloud cover. Tomorrow will be another very warm January day as warm air advection continues. Weak overrunning starts again in the afternoon. Right now the current thinking is that precipitation will likely hold off until after 00Z, but have added some slight chance to low chance PoP across the Southern forecast area tomorrow evening. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Looking at a significant, long duration rain maker through the short term with a deepening upper level low rotating northeastward from the deep south. Two distinct waves of energy will bring the rain. The first is an upper level trough oriented west to east, moving northward, and the second is the parent low. NAM showing strong low level frontogenesis Sunday night, and good upper level support in the form of Q vector convergence over the northeastern CWA. Right now, will handle the potential for flooding in the HWO, but high QPF amounts over the short term with good basin coverage could be problematic. All of this will occur in the warm sector of the surface frontal system associated with the upper low, so there is need to determine the efficacy of the dynamic cooling in terms of snow potential. Core of the upper low will need to be in close proximity to the CWA for snow to occur, which will primarily be in the highest elevations. Rain otherwise. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... System exits, pulling a colder airmass into the area, but only chances for snow will remain in the mountains. A brief recovery to the temperatures back above normal comes Wednesday, with the next cold front not far behind, and a wholesale airmass change heading for the end of the week and the weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z Saturday thru 06Z Sunday... As of 105 AM Saturday... A deep moist southerly flow will prevail this period with abundant clouds. An upper disturbance will pass mostly south and east of the area this afternoon and evening, with another upper disturbance approaching from the southwest by Sunday morning. Clouds across the north at 06Z are thin enough with near calm winds and wet ground to bring IFR river valley fog, affecting PKB, CKB ,EKN, with IFR fog possible later at CRW. Otherwise, ceilings overnight will be VFR ranging from 5000 to 250000 feet. The fog will tend to lessen toward dawn as boundary layer winds bring to stir. VFR ceilings around 4000 feet will be the rule by 16Z, with widely scattered VFR showers mainly over the southern mountains this afternoon and evening with the first upper disturbance. After 00Z ceilings mainly aoa 7000 feet with possible IFR fog at EKN by 08Z. Otherwise, expect scattered showers into the southern coal fields by 12Z Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium with fog overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of river valley fog overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L M L H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H M L AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday with another system. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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