Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271835 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 135 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE INTO SATURDAY. WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WERE ABOUT MINUS 18C TO MINUS 21C WERE HERE TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE DRYING UP THIS EVENING. YET...WITH THE 850 THERMAL TROF STILL LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...BEFORE THOSE TEMPERATURES CREEP HIGHER....A FEW OF THOSE CLOUD PATCHES MAY STICK INTO THE NIGHT AROUND IN THE WEAK FLOW. WENT A BIT COLDER IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY IN INTERIOR SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...HAVE MID DECK CLOUDS RETURNING BEFORE DAWN IN THE SOUTH TO AFFECT THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT SATURDAY...FIGURING ANY PCPN WILL BE ALOFT. AS MID DECK MOVES NE IN THE MORNING...BREAK COULD DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH...AS LIFT WEAKENS 18Z SAT TO 00Z SUN. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE...MAYBE HELD DOWN A BIT IN THE SOUTH BY THOSE CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING H850 TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO START BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS LIFT THE FREEZING LINE NORTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW AT H500 CROSSING EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PA. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SOME INTERACTION WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT FEATURE FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE ONSET OF PCPN AS SNOW...BUT QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. HAVE LIKELY POP AS NOT TRUSTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREAD ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...EAST WITH A COLD FRONT CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE LIQUID PCPN SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING INTO SNOW OR MIXED PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PCPN MOVES EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTHEAST OH...PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES WITH THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUED WORDING IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORIES DUE TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIGURED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND MID TO LOW 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERING THE SKIES. WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH BIAS CORRECTED NAM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM...WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH A GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...EXPECTING A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY LOW TO RIDE UP OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATH/MOISTURE SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. SO...POINT IS...WITH AT LEAST 1 FEATURE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND A DECENT SNOW PACK IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS...WATER ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE. PARTICULARLY...IF THE SECONDARY FEATURE WOULD HAPPEN TO DEVELOP...AND SPREAD A SECONDARY ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE WEEK AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THE SECONDARY FEATURE IS THAT BASED ON THE PATH...COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF SNOW...NOT JUST RAIN. SO...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT/RATE OF SNOW MELT...AND EVEN IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK. SO...IN A NUTSHELL...WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THE RISK FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO...AS FEEL THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK WITH THE FIRST FEATURE EARLY/MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LINGERING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT THROUGH 00Z...THEN MAINLY SCATTERED TO CLEAR. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS 8 TO 12 THSD AGL 09Z TO 15Z. CLOUDS MAY LOWER INTO THE 5 TO 8 THSD FT RANGE BY 18Z. A FEW FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z. SOME 6 MILES IN SMOKE FROM WOOD BURNING HOME HEATING POSSIBLE NEAR COMMUNITIES IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY...INCLUDING EKN. PCPN MAY BE DETECTED IN THE MID DECK 12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB

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