


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --374 FXUS61 KRLX 301630 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1230 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Primarily diurnally driven convection through today. Cold frontal passage Tuesday with strong to severe storms. Drier airmass settles in for the rest of the week and holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 1228 PM Monday... Showers and storms will ramp up again this afternoon, in the humid/unstable environment, and as a shortwave crosses the Ohio Valley region. Widespread severe is not anticipated, but there is a continued downburst/damaging wind threat, along with a continued threat for localized flash flooding, as overall steering flow remains around 15kts or less and PWATs remain anomalously high. SPC has much of the area highlighted in a marginal risk today for the downburst potential. The bulk of the convection should wane somewhat overnight, however, another shortwave, and surface cold front will be approaching from the west by early Tuesday, with an increase in shower and storm coverage. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible owing to a slight uptick in shear, with damaging winds the primary threat. The cold front will arrive Tuesday afternoon/evening and should be east of the area by Wednesday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 1228 PM Monday... Cold front should generally be to the east of the area by Wednesday morning or early afternoon. A few showers or storms are still possible Wednesday from passing weak disturbances, but most areas should be dry. A secondary front crosses the area Thursday. Once again, an isolated shower or storm is possible, but for the most part, the area should be dry, and overall less humid than as of late.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 1228 PM Monday... Increasing temperatures and humidity look to round out the extended as upper heights build across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will also be on the increase over the weekend, mainly diurnal in nature. Ridge looks to break down somewhat towards the end of the extended period, as a disturbance moves across the north.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 620 AM Monday... Some valley fog may spill into a few sites and be there for the next few hours. Thereafter, VIS restriction go away and the sites open up to VFR conditions going into the afternoon. Lower clouds make an appearance by this afternoon but should stay scattered in nature along with possible shower or storm activity. VIS restrictions could come to fruition under heavier shower activity. By late afternoon or early evening the storm threat will diminish, however shower activity will be left on the table into the nighttime with MVFR CIGs prevailing as activity will likely persist ahead of a cold front forecast to pass through on Tuesday. Cloudy skies by mid to high clouds will be likely throughout the period and shower activity will be high during the afternoon and evening. Winds will be weak in nature and storms and showers will likely move somewhat slow. Winds will be out of the southwest, therefore any activity will likely track northeast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorm activity may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms through Tuesday and in morning fog Wednesday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JZ