Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161321 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 819 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering clouds today, with some drizzle possible in the northern WV mountains. High pressure builds in tonight. Strong cold front for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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As of 815 AM Thursday... Updated sky cover to better handle cold air advection stratus moving in from the northwest. As of 640 AM Thursday... Removed pops for this morning and early this afternoon due to shallow moisture and lack of cold enough air for overturning. Did leave some drizzle in northeastern WV with the cold air advection. As of 600 AM Thursday... No changes needed. As of 320 AM Thursday... A cold front exit the eastern mountains producing light rain or drizzle. However, plenty of low level moisture will keep clouds and drizzle across the western slopes and eastern mountains through this afternoon. Northwest flow will shift from the north this evening as a sfc high pressure builds from the north and west. Went with the blend of models for highs this afternoon, and the SREF temperatures for lows tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... Although we start with high pressure overhead the dominant feature this period is a strong cold front that will rip through the region on Saturday. Warm air advection kicks in on Friday night out ahead of the front with deep southwesterly return flow. Warm front generally passes to our north and the region will be well entrenched in the warm sector by noon Saturday. This will send temperatures soaring into the 60s before showers break out with the front in the Ohio Valley by late Saturday afternoon. Yes it is November, but there may be enough forcing and instability with the front for some embedded thunder, but not enough confidence to put in the forecast at this time. Will have to watch for any convective line that develops, with forecast soundings showing 55 to 60 knots at only 2K feet the heavier showers could bring some strong wind gusts down to the surface. The front clears the mountains late Saturday night and strong CAA expected behind it. With the colder air and strong NW flow, upslope snow appears likely across western facing slopes. Depending when the changeover occurs, we may not see much in the way of accumulation until during the day on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 305 AM Thursday... Depending how much Great Lake moisture comes down behind the front, snowfall amounts will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range in the favorable upslope areas. By early Monday morning, weak ridging and WAA will cut off the snow. Models really diverge as we head into Thanksgiving week, so overall details are fuzzy at this time. At this time, no significant systems are expected, but a blend of ensemble and operational guidance does bring cool temperatures back in by mid week. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 600 AM Thursday... Abundant low level moisture will keep low to mid level clouds over the area for most part of the day. Satellite images show widespread low level stratus this morning. MVFR ceilings will be possible at EKN at the beginning of the period. MVFR ceilings could spread to affect other sites this morning. Brief periods of drizzle possible in low clouds. A gradual improvements can be expected this afternoon as clouds break up and lift. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of and height of LIFR ceilings could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M H M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR possible Saturday and Saturday night in precipitation. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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