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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 301742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1242 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO TWEAKS HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN
A BIT MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ