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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 230238
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1038 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT
EXITS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
...UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS OBS INDICATE
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT STILL REMAIN INTO CNTRL OH.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN ITS WAKE UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST AT BAY EXCEPT FOR
SHELTERED AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX TOWARD MORNING RESULTING
IN LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS GIVING CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MANY DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JW