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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE UNTIL MORNING.

CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT
OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS