Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011017 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 617 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK. TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY FORECAST REMAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA. OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MON...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE DAWN. THUNDERSTORMS MON COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT- DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX. THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MON NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W TROUGH. BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MON A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MON NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z SUNDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY MVFR/IFR FOG EXPECTED AGAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/01/15 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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