Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221851 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 251 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL MORNING. CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND 15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT. THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY... ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE. ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY. THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV. USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN QUESTION TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/LS NEAR TERM...LS SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...LS

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