Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 272124 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 524 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE... 500 PM UPDATE... EARLIER CLOUDS HAVE REALLY DENTED CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION THIS AFTN ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CWA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HRS ACROSS WV HAS ALLOWED SOME SFC HEATING AND WITH VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...CANT RULE OUT SOME STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MTNS NEXT FEW HRS. NONETHELESS...A VERY STOUT DRY AIR PUNCH IN THE H7-H6 LYR IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING E THRU S OH AND N KY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LACK OF VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N KY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP US OUT WITH JUST A BKN LINE WITH COLD FRONT LATER. SO THE WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTN EXCEPT SW VA WHICH IS GETTING CLIPPED BY E KY CONVECTION. DID ALLOW SOME RAMP UP IN THE MTNS THIS EVE BUT OTHERWISE...CAPPING WITH CHANCE POPS AND SCT WORDING. NIXED FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE. WILL BE EVALUATING TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY 12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS. AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...50/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...50 HYDROLOGY...

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