Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300636 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 226 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trof will keep the weather unsettled into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer, quieter interlude during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 200 AM UPDATE... Forecast on track with showers and thunderstorms dissipating as they move up through the middle Ohio valley overnight, and the flood threat waning. 745 PM UPDATE... Widely scattered shra/tsra will wane over the area as the evening progresses. Cant fully take pops out overnight with the subtle ripples in the flow traversing thru the region. In uptick in coverage may present itself after midnight across portions of SE OH and N WV. Otherwise...low stratus and fog will develop with areas that received rain taking the dive first. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing across the region at this time. With continued heating...expect the areal coverage to continue to increase. Models indicate a trough axis will approach the forecast area from the west tonight and then remain in the area on Saturday. Several disturbances will move through the upper level flow, one this evening and another on Saturday. The disturbance this evening should result in some showers and storms overnight. However, expect the areal coverage to decrease with the loss of sunshine. With abundant low-level moisture in place, expect a repeat of last night with some stratus and valley fog developing. Expect conditions will slowly improve after sunrise with some sunshine possible by late morning. Another disturbance will combine with daytime heating and low- level moisture to result in the development of showers and storms by late morning on Saturday. The storms should become more numerous across northern and western portions of our forecast area and because of this, I have gone with likely pops in those areas. PW values still expected to be around two inches with each of these features. This moisture and light deep layer flow will continue to support locally heavy downpours. Because temperatures looked good, I did not make any significant changes. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models showing moisture remaining over the region on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are once again possible...more likely in the afternoon and evening hours. By Monday...Nam shows a wave moving over the area that other models are not showing. Some of the other models are showing a vorticity lobe however...which does lend a bit a credence to the NAM solution. Will hedge the forecast a bit just in case...but not fully buy the NAM solution. By Tuesday...NAM still showing moisture over the region while other models are dry. Since current forecast is dry...will stay with consistency for now. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall...drier to start next week...with high pressure...surface and aloft in control. Upper ridge strengthens across the area mid week...with increasing temperatures. Looking at generally diurnal showers and thunderstorms...mostly in the mountains...although a slight chance cannot be completely ruled out elsewhere. Frontal boundary approaches late in the extended...but at this point...lots of uncertainty in timing. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Still a low to medium confidence forecast as to the extent of stratus and fog overnight. Have IFR developing all sites but dense fog only at PKB and EKN. The stratus will again take much of Saturday morning to mix into an MVFR stratocu deck and then mix out into a VFR cu field for the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible mainly across the middle Ohio Valley and northern WV overnight, and then most likely these same area Saturday afternoon. Fog and stratus are likely to begin forming again by 06Z Sunday, but showers and thunderstorms remain possible Saturday night. Flow surface and aloft will be mainly light southwest. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The fog and low cloud forecast for overnight into Saturday morning depends upon higher clouds and precipitation, with dense fog possible at any of the sites. A thunderstorm may directly impact an airport with IFR conditions anytime through 06z Sunday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M M M H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions in low clouds and/or fog during the overnight into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, but mainly Monday, which would in turn make Tuesday morning a better candidate for fog and stratus. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.