Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271442 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1040 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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FRONT STALLING OUT IN VICINITY TODAY. FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1430Z...SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT HAS SNEAKED THROUGH HTS TO CRW BETWEEN 11Z TO 14Z. YET...925 88D VAD FLOW STILL FROM SOUTHWEST AT RLX. SO DEPTH OF FRONTAL INVERSION ABOUT 1 TO 2 THSD FT. FURTHER INTO THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR...WILL LOWER MAXIUMUM TEMPERATURE PKB TO CKB. FIGURING FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING SHOWERS ARE RUNNING JUST JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FOR MIDDAY. THE BAND OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KY TO SE KY AT 1430Z...SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A NICE 925 MB INFLOW THIS MORNING. YET...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 925 MB INFLOW BREAKING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECHARGING FURTHER WEST. THAT BETTER INFLOW LIFTS INTO OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALSO TRYING TO LIFT BACK NORTH. RAINFALL PAST 24 HOURS WAS HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE CONVECTION. BANDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED...WITH A MAXIMUM 2 TO 2.5 IN NICHOLAS COUNTY. YET...WITH THE DRY GROUND THERE INITIALLY...THE GAULEY ONLY RISING ABOUT A FOOT OR TWO. IN THE WETTER COUNTIES...THE FFA DID PAN OUT FOR THE PKB VCNTY...WITH SOME MINOR FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY EVENING AROUND WILLIAMSTOWN WITH RAINFALL OF 1.6 INCHES. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE HARD TO JUMP ON ANY HEADLINE RELEASE THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... STILL DEALING WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE WARMEST AIR OVER THE AREA. SREF AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. PRIME EXAMPLE IS THE MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR HTS. NAM HAS 80 WHILE GFS HAS 67. BIG BUST POTENTIAL. WITH NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ON WHICH WAY TO LEAN... WILL KEEP A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING OUT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THAT IN MIND, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SATURDAY FROM SW TO NE WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW STRATUS SETTLING IN AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE 15Z TIME FRAME BEFORE IMPROVING. WAVES OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PASS AS WELL...BUT THESE SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...AND WILL SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS FIRST...AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTH AS WELL. NO PREVAILING THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS YET...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS LIFTING MAY VARY. CONVECTION TIMING LATER TODAY TO VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO PREVAILING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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