Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 292235 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 618 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE UP COMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS...WILL INCREASE SKY COVER AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AS THEY MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WILL LIGHT AND FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD AS CURRENT FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES SUGGESTS A MORE MILDER PATTERN THAN RECENT DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...SO EXPECT PCPN TO TRANSITION INTO SNOW OR A MIX PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THEREFORE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHEAST OH...PKB AND HTS AROUND 03-05Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST TO AFFECT THE REST OF SITES. IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING BKW AFTER 08Z. SHOWER RELATED IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF SHOWERS BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIMES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST H850 WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND A PORTION OF THESE WINDS CAN BE MIXED DOWN BY ANY SHOWER. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 13-14Z MONDAY MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING TO NOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP LATER TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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