Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030520 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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IN EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED WINDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 15Z MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY 16Z MONDAY THE RAP MODEL HAS 20 KNOT FLOW AT 925 MB. STILL LIKE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING...SO NO CHANGES THERE. FOR THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS EAST IN THE 22Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME FROM THE MID OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WV. CELLS WILL BE MOVING AT AROUND 35 KNOTS. HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA..SAY HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY...WITH MODELS HOLDING ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE INCREASE...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH CHANCE AND LOW END LIKELY POPS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WARRANTING HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE FRONT END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING IT OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 09-12Z. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE GENERALLY AFTER 15Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 18-20Z. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IN VICINITY OF STORMS...AS WELL AS BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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