Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281818 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 218 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Stationary frontal boundary, diurnal heating, high moisture and a mid level short pose a threat for flash flooding through tonight. Upper trough with several embedded shortwaves to keep unsettled weather over weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9 am update. Adjusted POPs according to current rain complex on radar. Watching for thunderstorm development ahead of the system as heating of the day takes over this afternoon. Previous discussion... It will continue to be warm and muggy overnight with the high dewpoints and increasing clouds. An old stationary front remains stuck nearby weakening as we speak. The GFS h500 charts show a short wave will ride the westerlies affecting our area through tonight. Clusters of showers and storms will produce heavy rain capable to produce flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch continues in effect until 12Z Friday. The weather looks like all the previous days with a stationary boundary, high sfc based CAPE and precipitable water around 2 inches. The NAM is showing an area of deep layered shear of 50 knots at Randolph county, spreading southwest. An isolated severe storms can not be ruled out with storms with equilibrium levels of 42 Kft. Any early morning fog should dissipate by 13Z lifting in low stratus by 14-15Z. Used National Blend of Models guidance for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough over area over the weekend...with several embedded waves...helping to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Still the possibility of brief heavy downpours over the weekend with high moisture content airmass in place...but good news is coverage shouldnt be overly widespread. Regardless...storms...particularly on Sunday will be rather slow moving...so isolated water issues cant be completely ruled out. Warmed temperatures slightly on Sunday from previous forecast...but overall...cooler temperatures this weekend until warming trend next week as heights build. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Using a combination of WPC and CONSENSus models...indicated building heights across the region allowing for hot and humid temperatures. Went with diurnal showers and storms through the term...especially in the mountains. Ridge will diminish toward end of term as a front approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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18Z Thursday thru 18Z Friday... Upper level low crosses the area tonight. A widespread area of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms at 18z west of crw-ckb line will slowly shift eastward with the upper system. The organized area of precipitation will mostly end west of the Ohio river around 03z...west of a crw-ckb line around 06z...and exit the mountains around 10z. Thereafter...a lingering shower is possible thru the end of the period.. For this afternoon...MVFR/locally IFR in showers and thunderstorms. After 00z...as the rains mostly end from west to east...look for IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby in fog to develop after 05Z...affecting the major terminal sites by 07Z. After 14z...improving to MVFR ceilings with a shower still possible. Winds will continue to be light westerly this afternoon and again during Thursday afternoon...nearly calm tonight. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of main area of showers and thunderstorms as it moves eastward across the area may vary by a couple of hours. While IFR/LIFR stratus has medium to high confidence tonight...fog potential is less certain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M L L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms later Friday night and Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>009- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ083-085>087. KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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