Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 040716 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 316 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT STILL NW OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY REFIRE S THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT CONVECTION NAM12 IS HINTING AT TONIGHT S. OTHERWISE MORNING STRATOCU WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL WV...WHERE THE RAIN DID NOT HIT. BLENDED IN THE MAV AND ONLY SOME MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...THOUGHT THE MET WAS TOO HIGH. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE MET AND MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE N OF THE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND THE FACT WE ARE IN FULL SUMMER FOLIAGE...AT THIS POINT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SOAKER OF A RAIN...WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEXT SYSTEM MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS CENTER OF LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FEED IS GOOD WITH THIS STORM AND INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN WV WELL S OF A COLD FRONT...WERE MOVING ENEWD...THE TAIL END OF THE LINE ALREADY NE OF EKN. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY TO DIRECTLY EFFECT EKN EARLY THIS MORNING UNLESS THE LINE BACK BUILDS MORE THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE TUG FORK AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY DAWN...CENTRAL WV BY MID MORNING BEFORE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCU AND MIST MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR AROUND AND JUST AFTER DAWN. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES THAT AREA. THIS MAY EXTEND BACK INTOTHE TUG FORK AREA DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT DOWN THERE. VFR CONDITIONS CODED AT THE SIX TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION WILL BE TOO WIDELY SCATTERED TO CODE...AND ACTUALLY S OF ALL SITES BUT BKW. FOG MAY START TO FORM BY 06Z TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT TODAY AND REMAIN LIGHT W TUE NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF LOWER CEILINGS NEAR THE FRONT...MAY VARY FROM FORECAST AND BE DEPENDENT ON NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO AFFECT EXTENT OF LOWER STRATOCU AND MIST THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/04/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JS/26 AVIATION...TRM

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