Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 172143 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS. DESPITE A PATTERN SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY TOO. WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MID LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW. COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL. MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE GROUND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H M H M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB

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