Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230738 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 338 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in control on today. A weak, moisture-starved cold front crosses early Monday morning, with gusty winds in the mountains and possibly an isolated shower. Stronger system crosses late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM Sunday... A sfc high pressure will control the weather conditions Sunday. Forecast on track. No changes necessary. As of 1030 PM Saturday... Issued frost advisory far south where surface ridging has allowed decoupling. Even BKW was 37 degrees with 3 kts. Advisory in the southern mountains from Wyoming County south. Clouds may interfere in Raleigh County. As of 745 PM Saturday. Lowered lows a tad via blending in MET/MAV, and added patchy frost far south, where surface ridging should allow valley winds to decouple. Forecast otherwise on track. As of 135 PM Saturday... Most of the low stratus has broken up, but only to be replaced by a cumulus deck in the cold air advection that is in full swing. Checking out the webcams from the northern mountains, it looks like any lingering rain/snow showers have ended. Surface high pressure passes to our south overnight, but also have a weak 500mb ripple passing to our north. This could keep a cloud around...especially in upslope regions through much of the night. Models trying to spit out some QPF, but did not include any POPs as the low levels are very dry. With some flow and clouds remaining overnight, did not include any frost with temperatures bottoming out in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s. Went with a slightly non-diurnal temp curve overnight for the higher elevations where 850mb temps start increasing after midnight. Sunday should be a nice day. With high pressure sliding east, will get some warm air advection, and when combined with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will recover nicely from todays chill. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM Sunday... Weak frontal system could kick off a few showers across the mountains Monday morning combined with some gusty winds. High pressure builds overhead Monday night and will make for a clear and chilly night with frost possible across the Northern Forecast Area from the Ohio Valley to the Eastern West Virginia Mountains. It is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the sheltered mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 335 AM Sunday... Weather impacts in the long term will be mostly from upper trough and surface cold front for Thursday. Not a whole lot of moisture with this front, but it does look like most of the region will see scattered rain showers. There is a little bit of time differences within the model guidance at this time and I have decided to go with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance through this period due to these differences. After this trough moves out the flow looks to become more zonal and we could have a few impulses moving through the flow for next weekend, bringing unsettled weather back to the region. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 AM Sunday... A sfc high pressure system will keep the area cool and dry through Sunday. Satellite images and sfc observations show a mid level deck, about bkn090 moving east across southeast OH and WV. These clouds could interrupt radiational cooling and prevent fog formation. With a dry airmass in place, do not expect fog. Satellite images also show some clouds over the northeast mountains about 3 thousand feet that should remain through sunrise. Overall, VFR conditions expected with localize MVFR ceilings through the period. Weak southwest flow will increase to 10 knots prevailing with some higher gusts over the ridges. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ033-034. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.