Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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663 FXUS61 KRLX 261803 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 203 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak east to west frontal boundary continues across northern portions of area. Next system late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM update. Adjusted placement of max pops to focus along front in the north early this afternoon...then shift southward later this afternoon into central and southern areas prior to significant decrease with loss of heating this evening. Previous discussion...A weak quasi stationary front remains just northwest of the area as seen in the sfc obs maps. The HRRR and RAP models bring PCPN during the afternoon hours when the heat is at its peak. Diurnal heating will combined with abundant moisture to produce showers or storms during the afternoon hours. A tongue of moisture, evident in precipitable water around 2 inches continues in place. This can support isolated heavy downpours through tonight. Went with the National blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models in decent agreement with a weak wave combining with daytime heating to pop some showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Have generally south to north POP gradient, with the highest POPs across southern CWA gradually decreasing to the north. The models are having a bit more trouble agreeing on a more significant surface low for Thursday into Friday. NAM and GFS show this wave riding along a warm front and crossing CWA Thursday into Thursday night... with the GFS a touch faster than the NAM. The ECMWF is farther NW with the surface low, and 12 to 18 hours slower. At any rate, with the warm front lifting through the region went with likely POPs Thursday. Precipitable water values look to be 2+ inches with this wave, so will have to keep a close eye on rainfall amounts, especially if the warm front is slow moving or becomes stationary. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Used a blend of the ECENS mean...NAEFS mean...AND GEFS mean. Weighted a bit more toward the ECENS mean than the others. This would leave the area in the warm sector with plenty of moisture Saturday. A cold front would then push into the area Sunday. Still questionable if this front would push south of the area or not for early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday... Nearly stationary east to west weak front across far northern portions of area will continue thru period. Thru 02z...Outside of convection...SCT-BKN 2000-3000 feet agl becoming mainly VFR ceilings 3500-5000 feet by 20z. Increasing showers and tstms mainly across southeast Ohio and northern WV this afternoon...vicinity of the nearly stationary weak front. SCT showers and tstms central and south. After 02Z...most convection decreases with loss of heating. Generally SCT-BKN 4000-8000 feet AGL with widely SCT showers mainly in the north. 08z-12z MVFR river valley fog...except lower in the north if earlier rains fall. After 13z Wednesday...4000-6000 feet AGL with widely SCT showers and tstms developing by 18z. Winds this period nearly calm by night...light and variable by day. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site Tuesday afternoon. Timing of Fog formation and intensity may vary tonight depending on where it rains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV

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