Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 040623 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 223 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. CONVECTION MOST COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COULD ISOLATED AREAS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHTS. SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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INCREASED POPS N WHILE DRYING OUT SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT..GIVEN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DRIFTING SWD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT WAS LOCATED RIGHT IN THE DIFFLUENT ZONE JUST SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. PREV DISCN... LOCAL DOWNPOURS VERSUS THE HEAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT THAT WE CAN NOT REMOVE THE CHANCE OF RAIN TOTALLY. RAP SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX IN CENTRAL OHIO DRIFTING EAST AND SOUTH. DESPITE THE LINGERING CONVECTION...STILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD RAIN. YET...THE LINGERING PATCHES OF CLOUDS COULD INTERFERE WITH THE FOG FORMATION. SO ANOTHER HARD HOUR BY HOUR FORECAST CONCERNING THE FOG FOR 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... STAGNANT PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AMID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE E CONUS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION THAT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THERE SHOULD BE DIURNAL POPCORN SHRA/TSRA MAXIMIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STILL...LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS ON THE MUGGY SIDE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK TOWARD THURSDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AMID A TRANSITION MORE INTO A E CONUS TROF. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MARK THIS TRANSITION LOOKS TO CROSS LONG ABOUT THURSDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GOOD SHOT A MUCH NEEDED RAIN OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OH RIVER. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VALLEY FOG FORMATION WAS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY...BUT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MAY CAUSE THE FOG TO BREAK UP THERE...AND THE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING AN AIRPORT DIRECTLY DEPENDS UPON TO WHAT DEGREE THE COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER OVERNIGHT. PKB AND PERHAPS CKB ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED OVERNIGHT...VERSUS POINTS FARTHER TO THE S AND E. DAYBREAK WILL BRING AN END TO BOTH FOG AND THUNDER CONCERNS BY MID MORNING...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OHIO OVERNIGHT...DRIFTS OVER WV FRI. FRI NT WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH CALL. ON THE ONE HAND...AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINFALL GREATLY INCREASES THE CHANCE OF AND HASTENS THE TIMING OF THE FORMATION OF OVERNIGHT FOG. ON THE OTHER HAND...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION INTERFERES WITH DENSE FOG. MAINLY CALM SFC WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY N...ON FRI...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI NT. LIGHT N TO NE FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND FRI WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TO E FRI NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MAY NEED AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS IF STORMS FORM/MOVE TOWARDS TERMINALS AT ANYTIME. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/04/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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