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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171405
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1003 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure through the weekend and most of next week,
providing warm afternoons and cool nights.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1000 AM Sunday...

Just some minor tweaks to the package this morning to fine tune some
details.

As of 630 AM Sunday...

No changes necessary.

As of 300 AM Sunday...

Areas of fog developed overnight. Expect fog to burn off around
13Z. High pressure provides a relaxed pressure gradient, plenty
of sunshine and calm flow through Monday.

Abundant low level moisture combined with the diurnal heating
could allow a mountain shower or thunderstorm this afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Weak high pressure at the surface will provide fairly seasonable
weather for mid September. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees
above normal.

Diurnally driven showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder, will be
possible across the mountainous counties on Monday. A weak upper
level shortwave trough will bring the potential for some
thundershowers in the middle Ohio River Valley on Tuesday.

High temperatures will be about 4 degrees above normal

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Weak high pressure will linger through much of the week. Aloft,
several weak impulses will be drifting through Wednesday and
Thursday with the potential for some showers or storms. High
temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal,
with near to just above normal lows.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 AM Sunday...

Areas of LIFR dense fog will burn off by 13-14Z. Mostly clear
skies, calm flow and abundant low level moisture will allow for
a shower or thunderstorms along the northeast mountains this
afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure and a relaxed flow will
prevail through the period.

Another dense fog event will be possible tonight into Monday morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...

No widespread IFR conditions at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ