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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240710
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS REACHED CRW TO CKB AS OF 07Z...WITH MAINLY
RAIN TO THE E...SAVE FOR HIGH RIDGES WHERE A MIX OF FRZ RAIN AND
SNOW WAS OBSERVED. SNOW AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 1 TO 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WHERE THE WINTER WX ADV CONT
UNTIL 09Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THAT A FEW HRS ALONG OH RIVER AND NE
KY AS THE HRRR STILL HAS BACK EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND OVER THOSE
LOCALES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A COATING TO AN INCH E OF THE OH
RIVER THRU EARLY MORNING HRS. THIS GOES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WILL HANDLE THE AREAS OF WV/SW VA NOT IN AN ADV WITH SPS FOR
DEFORMATION BAND AS IT WORKS THRU. MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND AS IT WORKS THRU WV AND SW VA ZONES.

WIND DOWN THE SNOW BY 15Z ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STUBBORN TO LIFT ELSEWHERE BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. STILL...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO SCT OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TIGHT CLUSTER AMONGST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TDY...SO SEE
LITTLE REASON TO STRAY.

WILL BE TRACKING A FAST MOVING UPPER S/W TROF SWINGING THRU
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND TEMPS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS N ZONES AND IN THE N MOUNTAINS. KEPT A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IN THE N MOUNTAINS WITH THIS. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
DIP BACK TO OR BELOW FRZ...WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN DIPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A 500MB RIPPLE MOVES THROUGH. NW FLOW BEHIND THIS
ENDS PRETTY QUICKLY AS QUICK MOVING CLIPPER DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY. CLIPPER WILL CROSS CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO TRENDED THAT WAY...BRINGING SOME OF THE
HIGHER POPS THAT WERE PREVIOUS NORTH OF CWA INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP SNOW GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
CWA...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AND INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MODIFY HWO A BIT TO INCLUDE A TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEN TRANSITION TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NW FLOW AND
COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVING MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE.  IN THE FLUFF...MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE.

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY.
NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL
CONTINUE THRU 12Z FOR THE TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINISH
SWITCHING TO SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS BY 09Z. HAVE SOME
TEMPOS IN TO HANDLE OCCASIONAL DROP IN VSBY BELOW 1SM...OTHERWISE
CARRYING PREDOMINATE 1SM AND LIFR/VLIFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT IFR KEKN/KBKW.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THE
DEFORMATION BAND TRACKS THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
VSBY WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR AND EVENTUAL VFR AS THE SN ENDS...CIGS
WILL STAY IN THE IFR/VLIFR RANGE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LIFTING
AND SCT TO BKN MVFR BY MIDDAY...POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU TONIGHT WITH
SCT SHSN...MAINLY ACROSS THE N TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME MVFR STRATUS
TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AMID THE SHSN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING THE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY A FEW
HRS THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 01/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>011-017.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ076-083-085>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30