Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 302334 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 734 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A large upper level low will bring unsettled wet weather through tonight. Dry slot moves over this weekend, lowering chances for showers. High pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 735 PM Friday... Tightened up the POPs along the narrow axis of deeper moisture running south to north from Fayette to Washington counties. As of 240 PM Friday... A large upper low continues rotating over north central KY through the evening. This low is producing long rain bands far away from its center. Showers and thunderstorms will form these bands, some thunderstorms could become severe through this evening. Shower activity should decrease tonight as the upper low drift northeast loosing its influence over our area. Low chances for PCPN is forecast for Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal with widespread 50s tonight. For Saturday, highs will range from the mid to lower 70s lowlands, to low 60s highest peaks.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Friday... The pesky upper low will finally pull north out of hour hair Saturday night and Sunday. While chances for shra still exist across SE OH and N WV, most places will begin to dry out. However, clouds will still linger. Upper heights begin to build on Monday as the upper low moves into New England as a drying pattern takes hold. Still expect some hefty afternoon cu though. Temperatures should run near seasonal norms in the short term. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday... The extended begins with upper level ridging taking hold with temperatures moderating back above normal, particularly for daytime highs. A trof approaches late week with a cold frontal passage and a band of shra. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 735 PM Friday... Less coverage of showers means more VFR across the area this evening, but still gives forecast issues based on the variability in the cloud cover overnight. Some IFR and worse fog is in the forecast, but cannot produce TAFs with fog for the entire overnight period. Other locations will favor low stratus in the IFR range. So, have reasonable confidence in restrictions in the first 12 hours of the TAF, but how those will manifest themselves is the kicker. TAF reflects the best deterministic forecast, but this could be another scenario where amendments may be necessary. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of showers and storms and resultant MVFR/IFR restrictions may vary from forecast. Amendments likely. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M M L L M L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L H H L L L L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M H H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L H M M H H H M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H H M H H L L L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Areas of IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, and in dense fog Sunday and Monday mornings.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.