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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 040352
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1052 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SENT AN UPDATE TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WV UNTIL 21Z THURSDAY...AND ALSO TO EXPAND THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE LOGAN...MINGO AND
WYOMING IN WV...AND OUR VA COUNTIES UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY.

WWD GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER CENTRAL WV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
THE SREF MODEL SHOWS MORE THAN 80 PERCENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GREATER THAN 4 INCHES...AND CLOSE TO 75 PERCENT OF SNOW ACCUMS
GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OVER THE SAME AREA. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASE...AND APPROPRIATE ACTION HAS BEEN TAKEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS PER LATEST
SFC OBS SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS
REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO A HEAVY SNOW EVENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THIS EVENING
ONWARD...ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. SNOWMELT WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOODING. FOR THE TRANSITION
TO SNOW...WE WILL BLEND THE FASTER GFS/CMC SOLUTION AND THE SLOWER
NAM/ECMWF. IN ANY EVENT...ALL MODELS SHOW A HEAVY RAIN TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A HEAVY SNOW EVENT. SO THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE
OCCURRING OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR MOST OF THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
REMAINDER OPF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH...REMAINS IN A
WINTER STORM WATCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT...NOT FALLING
MUCH UNTIL THE COLD FRONT STARTS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL MOST LIKELY REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 30S DURING
WEDNESDAY. SO...THE MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL BE FROM ONE WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE IN THE COLDER THAT WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET
AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN
RECEIVING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER. KEPT THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND THE DURATION OF SLEET THAT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE INTENSITY AND DURATION WITH THE GFS
BEING THE ONE OUTLIER PUSHING THE COLD AIR THROUGH FASTER AND
SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPING THE AREA A BIT DRIER. OPTED TO STILL CONSIDER
THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT BLENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER WETTER
SOLUTIONS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE WPC THINKING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GRADUALLY
BEING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING SOME WITH
THIS FEATURE...BOTH IN SPEED AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS WILL MAKE IT. HAVE ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FOLLOWING THE FIRST AROUND MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THESE TO
FEATURES SEPARATE...WHILE GFS DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN
THEM. ENDED UP WITH A NEAR 50/50 BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FOR POPS. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS/WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT OVERHEAD PRODUCING VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF PCPN.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
EASTERN KY LIFTING NORTH INTO OUR AREA.

THE MAJOR CONCERN IS A BROAD LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ORIENTED FROM
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN OH AND
CENTRAL KY ATTM. EXPECT THIS BROAD LINE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING WITH PKB AROUND 03Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER REST OF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THIS LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTHEAST
TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS HTS BY 06Z...AND SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT CRW AND CKB AND THE REST OF SITES BY
09-12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A PROLONG PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG
THIS LINE AS MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR OR WORST
ALONG ITS PATH.

HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING
AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN
WILL TRANSITION INTO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 03/04/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNDER RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW.
IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ024-025-027-028-030>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WVZ009>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR OHZ085>087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ/JMV