-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
485
FXUS61 KRLX 091723
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
123 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Synoptic ascent atop a very moist airmass will yield locally
heavy thunderstorms today into tonight. Return to
isolated/scattered Thunderstorms for Thursday/Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 605 AM Wednesday...

Subsequent runs of convection allowing models after the overnight
package haven`t upped confidence levels on placement of any rainfall
maxima across the region, thus will forgo any flood watches at this
juncture.

As of 250 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

* Forcing for ascent atop a moisture laden airmass will yield
  locally heavy downpours today into tonight

* Limited risk for severe weather today with damaging winds as
  the primary threat

* Convective coverage returns to isolated/scattered Thursday
  through Saturday

* More widespread precipitation looks to return next week with a
  parade of upper level disturbances

Mostly clear skies, light winds, and enhanced surface moisture from
spotty showers and thunderstorms yesterday have combined to yield at
least patchy fog across the valleys this morning. Fog should
continue to expand where skies remain clear heading into daybreak,
with development somewhat slowed across our far west where mid-level
clouds are invading the region. Will monitor trends this morning to
determine if a special weather statement for fog is necessary for
the morning commute.

A moisture laden airmass remains entrenched across much of the
southeastern quarter of the continental United States with
precipitable water values of 1.75-2.0 inches, generally north of
90th percentile values based on proximity soundings across much of
our forecast area. Unlike in the preceding days, today will have a
more focused source for forcing for ascent in the form of an
approaching mid-level wave and associated right entrance region of
an 80-100KT shared energy H250 jet streak. This enhanced forcing
should yield relatively early firing of convection, potentially as
early as 10 AM across our far west spreading east to our eastern
border as early as 2-3 PM. Convection and associated convective
debris should limit surface heating at least on a localized basis
and coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates of around 5.5C/km
associated with the tropically influenced airmass, this should serve
to significantly limit destabilization of surface based parcels to
at or below 1000-1500J/kg MUCAPE outside of local pockets of strong
insolation. While instability is expected to be somewhat more
limited than in recent days, forecast profiles continue to display
deep warm cloud depths in excess of 10kft and deep but skinny
instability profiles yielding highly efficient warm rain process
precipitation. Although steering flow will be a bit stronger than in
the preceding days, out of the southwest at 20-25 mph, forcing
oriented on a SW-NE axis could set the stage for at least some
training of convection this afternoon, and with rainfall rates of 1
to 2 inches per hour, it won`t take too much dwell time for
localized high water issues to start to emerge. At present, forecast
guidance is not hitting this especially hard outside of an
occasional CAM cycle, with HREF probability matched 6 hour means
only showing a few bullets of 1.5 to 1.75 6hr accumulations. Another
factor that could limit more widespread high water potential is the
general lack of widespread precipitation over the last few days,
although a few locations have received the fire hose, outside of
those localized maxima amounts over last 72 hours are generally
in the 0 to .75 inch range. Will continue to consider a flash
flood watch with additional guidance this morning, but at
present not seeing enough consistency to garner enough
confidence to hoist a product.

As previously mentioned, flow will be a little stronger today
prompting a bit better potential for updraft organization. The
primary threat with any stronger updrafts will be locally damaging
wind gusts, but a greater areal threat of severe weather should be
limited by the aforementioned cooling effect of early convection with
the best chances across our south and east where convection fires
latest in the day.

Ascent associated with the aforementioned jet streak will remain over
southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky beyond diurnal heating this
evening, and any existing storms may linger into the overnight prior
to richer column moisture slowly starting to shift east out of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

Thursday will see a return to mainly isolated to scattered diurnally
driven convection as the tropical moisture plume continues to shift
east out of the region, couldn`t rule out some lingering activity
Thursday evening as a weak shortwave approaches from the west around
sunset. Friday and Saturday should see the least amount of
convective coverage (isolated/scattered) for this forecast
package as a drier column moves briefly overhead with very
subtle ridging.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

By Sunday, the ridge weakens, allowing a parade of shortwave troughs
to approach from the northwest, increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. We`ll see a return of higher
PWAT values with a resumption of a risk for heavy downpours.
Confidence in the details is not especially high due a widening
spread of model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 125 PM Wednesday...

Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms continue to flourish
around the area this afternoon and evening within a hot and
muggy environment. A combination of SHRA, VCTS, and TSRA were
used to cover today`s precipitation potential, and additional
amendments may be warranted if a storm takes a direct path over
an airfield. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will attempt to
accompany strong storms through tonight.

Valley fog will once again be likely late tonight into Thursday
morning, especially across sites that obtain measurable
rainfall at or near the terminal. Any fog that does form will
gradually erode after daybreak and give way to another day
conducive for afternoon showers and storms.

Outside of storms, surface winds will be light and variable
through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be warranted today in the
event a storm passes close by to a TAF site. Fog could be
widespread and dense overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers
and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours, each day through the weekend. IFR fog possible during
the overnights.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK