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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 302334
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
734 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low will bring unsettled wet weather through
tonight. Dry slot moves over this weekend, lowering chances for
showers. High pressure early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 735 PM Friday...

Tightened up the POPs along the narrow axis of deeper moisture
running south to north from Fayette to Washington counties.

As of 240 PM Friday...

A large upper low continues rotating over north central KY through
the evening. This low is producing long rain bands far away from
its center. Showers and thunderstorms will form these bands, some
thunderstorms could become severe through this evening. Shower
activity should decrease tonight as the upper low drift northeast
loosing its influence over our area. Low chances for PCPN is
forecast for Saturday.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal with widespread 50s
tonight. For Saturday, highs will range from the mid to lower 70s
lowlands, to low 60s highest peaks.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

The pesky upper low will finally pull north out of hour hair
Saturday night and Sunday. While chances for shra still exist across
SE OH and N WV, most places will begin to dry out. However, clouds
will still linger. Upper heights begin to build on Monday as the
upper low moves into New England as a drying pattern takes hold.
Still expect some hefty afternoon cu though.

Temperatures should run near seasonal norms in the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

The extended begins with upper level ridging taking hold with
temperatures moderating back above normal, particularly for
daytime highs. A trof approaches late week with a cold frontal
passage and a band of shra.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 735 PM Friday...

Less coverage of showers means more VFR across the area this
evening, but still gives forecast issues based on the variability
in the cloud cover overnight. Some IFR and worse fog is in the
forecast, but cannot produce TAFs with fog for the entire
overnight period. Other locations will favor low stratus in the
IFR range. So, have reasonable confidence in restrictions in the
first 12 hours of the TAF, but how those will manifest themselves
is the kicker. TAF reflects the best deterministic forecast, but
this could be another scenario where amendments may be necessary.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of showers and storms
and resultant MVFR/IFR restrictions may vary from forecast.
Amendments likely.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    L    L    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Areas of IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday, and in dense fog Sunday and Monday mornings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26