Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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272 FXUS61 KRLX 232335 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 735 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front approaches middle to end of next week. Cooler airmass to follow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Saturday... Tweaked hourly grids based on latest lamp/hrrr. Expect dense river valley fog once again tonight. As of 135 PM Saturday... No significant changes were necessary to the forecast in the near term period. High pressure surface and aloft remains in control, with above normal temperatures, and dry conditions. Expecting another cool, clear night on tap again, with areas of fog developing, burning off by mid morning Sunday, with another sunny and hot day on tap.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Saturday... High pressure and ridging remains across the Ohio Valley for the period with well above average temperatures. Dry air aloft and lack of major forcing will keep the region dry and mostly sunny. Tuesday, the effects of Maria will start to be felt with a slight chance of terrain-driven showers during the afternoon though they will be primarily on the eastern ridgelines outside of this CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 325 PM Saturday... Operational long range models remain consistent in a significant pattern change upcoming for the end of the week. The position and strength of Maria lingering off the Outer Banks of North Carolina will determine the strength and timing of surface boundaries dropping in from the northwest. At this time, an initial cold front will approach the region on Wednesday and struggle to pass through by Thursday morning, dropping Thursday temperatures to near-normal. Models are in better agreement for a more robust cold front associated with an amplified short-wave embedded within a mean long-wave trough to come through the area Friday night into Saturday with greater precipitation chances and an even greater airmass change behind it. Deep, due-northerly flow will settle into place for the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Saturday... Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through 04Z. Persistence forecast once again with dense river valley fog overnight at most terminals except KBKW. Expect KEKN to drop first, generally in the 3-4Z time frame, with the remaining terminals holding off until closer to 06Z. Fog to dissipate int he 13 to 14Z timeframe for a return to VFR conditions amid just some passing cirrus clouds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High on dense fog. Medium no timing onset of dense fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and restrictions may vary from forecast a few hours. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.