Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 302322 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 722 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS. LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RATHER LARGE THIS EVENING...AND MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GOING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THIS...HAVE WET GROUND AND WARM WATER IN RIVERS SO THINK AT LEAST SOME FOG SHOULD BE EXPECTED. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL. FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...MZ

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