Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300528 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 128 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 800 PM UPDATE... FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF FOG TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON. STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT. SCATTERED UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A W-E AXIS. WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG WINNING OUT INITIALLY. WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU AGAIN WED. MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE RETURNS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA WILL KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALL CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE MORE VALLEY FG THAN LAST NIGHT. CARRYING DENSE FOG CRW/EKN/HTS AND IFR FG KPKB WITH SITES ALREADY APPROACHING DP CROSSOVER POINTS ALREADY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 13Z WITH SCT TO BKN 4-6 THSD FT STRATOCU. SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS MAINLY NRN WV AND SE OH. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/30/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KMC

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