Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 081833 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 133 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses first thing this morning, followed by much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 AM Thursday... No changes necessary. As 0f 620 AM Thursday... Forecast on track. As of 310 AM Thursday... A cold front entering the forecast area from the west early this morning, crosses in a subtle manner this morning. Low level west to northwest flow and cold advection will gradually increase in the wake of the front today. It will take much of the day to get a stratocu deck in place, and upslope snow showers will only gradually get going in the northern mountains tonight. Maintained forecast of an inch at Snowshoe late overnight tonight with h85 temperatures -12 to -14 C supporting dendritic crystal growth. Used a near term guidance blend for temperatures, with a slow rise in cold advection today, and overall not much change from the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Thursday... Light upslope snow showers will continue across the higher terrain Friday and Friday night, with light accumulations possible. Still quite cold across the area Friday and Friday night, with -6-7C air at 850. Mountains will see another night in the single digits to teens, with teens to lower 20s elsewhere. Snow showers will taper off by Saturday morning as flow becomes less favorable. Much of the weekend will remain dry, and gradually milder, as weak ridging builds across the area in advance of the next system. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... Active weather returns to the long term period. A wave will move east across the Great lakes region Sunday, creating light precipitation, mainly across northern zones. Precipitation will increase across the area region wide by Sunday night into Monday, as low pressure in the plains moves northeast into the Great Lakes region, spreading rain and snow showers back into the area. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 115 PM Thursday... A dry cold front passing just north of the area will bring colder and gusty winds behind it. Satellite images show a large cloud deck of MVFR ceilings about 2200 feet moving east in the cold air. These clouds will likely move across our northern sections through tonight. Meenwhile, an area of mostly clear skies will prevail over the rest of the area. Those low level clouds will be squeezed by the northeast mountains to produce up to two inches of snow through Friday. West gusty flow could remain gusty mainly higher elevations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocu may vary tonight. Gusty winds will vary this afternoon and tonight, and may be stronger than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L M L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M M M L L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in snow showers into Friday in the mountains, especially across the higher windward terrain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ

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