Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 101813 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 213 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE SYSTEMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONVECTION IS CONQUERING THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE DEPTH AND A CAP ABOVE 650MB AND HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN MIXING OF DRIER DEWPOINTS TO THE SURFACE HAS NOT PREVENTED THIS FROM HAPPENING EITHER. SO...FILLED IN THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PRIME HEATING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH ALSO HELPING WITH THE FORCING. WILL SEE PRESSURE RISES INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE CONFIDENCE IN STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS AGAIN...BUT KEEP THE LOWLANDS DRY WITH LOW END POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THROUGH GREAT LAKES...WITH MID OHIO VALLEY FALLING UNDER WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG HPC MODELS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN HOW MUCH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RELIED MAINLY ON SREF PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR POP FIELDS...WITH ISOLD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR SUNDAY...AS A SYSTEM PROVIDES DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RELIED ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THOUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ISOLATED CONVECTION ONGOING WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5KFT. NEEDED THE VCTS WORDING IN HTS WITH CELLS IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT. DROP THIS BY 20Z. CONVECTION WANES AS HEATING WANES THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. LATE VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS LIKELY TO BOUNCE...GIVEN THE TRENDS OVER LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERE. KEEP THE IFR/LIFR PERIODS CONFINED TO LATE...AFTER 08Z AND IMPROVING BY 12Z FRIDAY. MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. LOWLANDS WILL BE DRY...EKN AND BKW MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A STRAY CELL OR TWO...BUT NOTHING NEEDED IN PREVAILING AT THIS TIME FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT 06Z THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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