Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241448 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1048 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1030 AM UPDATE... SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST. UPDATED/TIGHTENED UP POPS TO REFLECT PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOC WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT. EVEN HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHWEST OF CRW IN THE PAST 30-45 MINS...SO ADDED IN SLIGHT THUNDER AS WELL FROM THERE AND POINTS SOUTH. THAT SAME STORM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY BEARS WATCHING...AS IT IS MAKING A BEELINE STRAIGHT FOR WEST-CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED A RADAR-ESTIMATED 2.50IN+ OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FINALLY...UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE REBOUNDING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY. HAVE SURFACE FRONT ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. AROUND 08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL AT 08Z. YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW AT 925 MB. LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. RAIN RATES OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED. THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3 INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE. SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY. THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT. FIGURING IT WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. ALSO FIGURING WITH PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING. IF NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY. I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES. SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY. WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS. DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW. FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING. 500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING. THIS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW. THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS CORRIDOR FIRST. WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA 21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ON FRIDAY. HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE... IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB/50 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...KTB

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