Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220708 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 308 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler airmass settles in through the early part of the week. Next cold front approaches by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper trough axis well east of the forecast area as ridging builds in from the west. Mostly clear skies across the region outside of the ridges under increasing subsidence is allowing for relatively strong radiational cooling. With lower dewpoints in the wake of the recent cold front,this will result in much cooler temperatures this morning than previous mornings along with areas of valley fog. Plenty of sunshine along with slightly below normal daytime highs are expected today with high pressure in control.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Benign weather will continue through the short term as upper ridging transitions across the northeast. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday after another relatively cool night climbing back into the lower 80s on Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday... High pressure drift east of the Appalachian continuing with dry conditions at least through Wednesday night. Then, a cold front approaches Friday keeping the area in the warm sector and chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday and Saturday. Followed WPC for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Strong radiational cooling overnight raises the possibility of mainly MVFR restrictions into the morning. With most sites still showing dewpoint depressions of several degrees most should not see development until shortly before sunrise. Confidence in development overall through is less than average as forecast soundings indicate a border-line hydrolapse. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low-Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog uncertain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Dense valley fog possible most mornings through mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$

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