Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271034 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 615 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE 20S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH. FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME. SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY... MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COLD UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END VFR...WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AND TONIGHT AREA WIDE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV

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