Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151948 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 248 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upslope tonight. High pressure Saturday. A weak system brings some light rain Sunday afternoon and night. Another clipper crosses Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 110 PM Friday... Some cold air advection behind an upper level wave will allow for some weak upslope this evening in the northern WV mountains. Moisture may become deep enough for some light snow showers. Due to the limited moisture and weak nature of the upslope, think any accumulations would remain less than in inch. Temperatures tonight are once again rather tricky due to the combination of some wind, a stratus deck that will be dissipating, and some warm advection clouds. Warm air advection sets in later tonight with high pressure building over the area on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 232 PM Friday... A notable warming trend this weekend as the mean longwave trof that has been parked across the eastern CONUS is replaces by quasi zonal flow with embedded s/w ridging. A dampening system within this flow will cross late Sunday. Trend has been for much less qpf with this system amid some very dry low levels. Pops have been lowered as a result. There is some concern for a brief light mix across the northern zones on the front end of this but this looks like a minimal impact scenario at the moment. Clouds will linger Monday with highs being tempered a bit as a result.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 240 PM Friday... Generally quiet in the extended with a cold front slated for Tuesday night. Moisture is lacking with this feature so only slight chance pops which would take the form of rain, followed by a brief chance for mountain snow showers late Tuesday night. The quasi zonal flow continues across the eastern CONUS into late week with mild conditions prevailing. This begins to change Day 7 and beyond. A forecast challenge awaits heading into Christmas amid significant ensemble spread with what may turn out to be a noteworthy overrunning event, as we lie within the battleground for cold air/warm supremacy.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Friday... A weak wave is moving over the region. This wave is creating a large hole in the VFR/MVFR stratus deck. The stratus deck will gradually raise some this afternoon with the hole propagating with the upper level wave. Some cold air advection behind the wave will allow for some weak upslope this evening in the northern WV mountains. This will allow the stratus deck to solidify on the western slopes of the mountains and lower some this evening. Later tonight, the stratus deck will gradually dissipate as warm air advection sets in. After the stratus deck dissipates, VFR conditions can be expected for Saturday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow showers could cause restrictions in northeastern WV this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H M L H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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