Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100901 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 501 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MORE SYSTEMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE. IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ISOLATED AREAS OF MID CLOUDS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. 1 KM FOG CHANNEL SHOWS FOG HAS FORMED ALONG MANY RIVER VALLEYS OVER WV BY 07Z. THE AXIS OF THE H5 TROF EXIT LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT SOME MINIMAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THROUGH GREAT LAKES...WITH MID OHIO VALLEY FALLING UNDER WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG HPC MODELS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN HOW MUCH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RELIED MAINLY ON SREF PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR POP FIELDS...WITH ISOLD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR SUNDAY...AS A SYSTEM PROVIDES DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RELIED ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THOUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CALM FLOW AND LARGE POCKETS OF CLEARING SKIES COULD ALLOW IFR DENSE FOG FORMATION MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SITES SUCH AS EKN AND BKW FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. OTHER SITES LIKE CKB...AND CRW COULD DEVELOP IFR DENSE FOG LATER AFTER 09Z THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY. ANY IFR CONDITION WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO WIDESPREAD VFR AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL FORM AT 4 TO 7 THSD FT MAY IN PLACES EVEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION ALONG THE DEEPER VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...HAVE MOSTLY VFR AFTER 13Z THURSDAY...EXCEPT SOME 2 THSD FT CEILINGS MAY FORM AFTER THE VALLEY FOG LIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND BKW VCNTY BEFORE LIFTING INTO 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AFTER 14Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT 05Z THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/10/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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