Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041856 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 256 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE-SW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS MORE OF A MOISTURE BOUNDARY THAN TEMPERATURE...AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST OH COUNTIES ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OOZE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME STORMS COULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS...SO HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITED TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS MINT/MAXT NUMBERS...SO HAVE GENERALLY ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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BIG STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WITH IT. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH TRACK WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE. FELT BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO STAY CLOSE TO ESEMBLES AND WPC WHICH TRACKS THE LOW GENERALLY OVER THE REGION LATER THU AND INTO THU NIGHT. 3 AND 6 HR FFG IS REALLY HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 3 INCHES IN NE KY TO 2.25 OVER N WV. WITH THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH FFG...WILL FORGO ANY MENTION IN HWO LET ALONE ANY WATCH ISSUANCE. SYSTEM PULLS OUT EARLY FRIDAY WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT LATER IN THE DAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AMID A RELATIVELY WNW FLOW ALOFT. PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER REAMPLIFICATION OF MEAN TROF. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AT 17Z. ISOLATED FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AFT 04Z...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. VSBYS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR AT THE AIRPORTS. DO HAVE BRIEF IFR CODED UP BEFORE DAWN PKB...CLOSEST TO THE HIGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FCST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OFCOLD FRONT STILL NW OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY REFIRE S THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT CONVECTION NAM12 IS HINTING AT TONIGHT S. OTHERWISE MORNING STRATOCU WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL WV...WHERE THE RAIN DID NOT HIT. BLENDED IN THE MAV AND ONLY SOME MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...THOUGHT THE MET WAS TOO HIGH. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE MET AND MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE N OF THE FRONT. FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/30 NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JS/30 AVIATION...JSH

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