Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281850 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 250 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure brings a stellar night, before yielding to a southwest flow of warmer and more humid air Thursday through Saturday. Cold front crosses late Saturday/Saturday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Wednesday... As usual in very tranquil weather, models are in very good agreement, with high pressure dominating our area this period. Our high pressure center will continue to shift to our east. Thus, after a milder night, increasing southerly winds and abundant sunshine on Thursday will boost temperatures well into the 80s, along with a modest increase in humidity.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 235 PM Wednesday... Getting the convergence of a weak upper wave over the southeast and an approaching upper trough and cold front with gradually increasing POPs over the region Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints continue their reach into the upper 80s/ near 70 respectively, back into a more summer type pattern. Keeping the area in general thunder for now, and the QPF amounts look manageable with these systems heading through Saturday and cold front arrival.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Wednesday... 850mb temperatures get knocked back again late this weekend behind the front, with high pressure regaining control for the beginning of the work week. No major temperature fluctuations expected overall, with the next chance for rain arriving midweek.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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18Z Wednesday thru 18Z Thursday... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Til 12Z Thursday... High pressure brings VFR with scattered cirrus. Fog is not expected tonight outside of a possible brief period of MVFR in the most protected valleys around sunrise Thursday. For now will leave EKN out of fog tonight. Near calm to light south winds. After 12Z Thursday... Continued VFR with scattered cirrus, but as the high pressure shifts to our east, look for winds to increase from the southwest at 7-12 KTS with some higher gusts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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