Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171829 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 229 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons, with temperatures moderating through the weekend. A cold front crosses on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1000 AM Tuesday... No changes needed with the morning update. Dense river valley fog will dissipate within the hour. Main forecast conundrum in the near term will be temperatures tonight. I will be closely interrogating afternoon dewpoints to gauge a base for lows tonight and any subsequent headlines. We will also be looking at potentially dropping some mountain counties from the growing program. As of 250 AM Tuesday... No significant changes necessary to the previous forecast. High pressure in control with dry conditions. Dew points have not fallen as much as previously forecast, so not as widespread of a frost/freeze as expected, with dense valley river fog starting to develop, as evident on satellite and airport observations. Once fog burns off, expecting a mostly sunny day, a few degrees warmer than Monday. Another cool night on tap tonight, with dense river valley fog, and patchy frost expected. Will allow the day shift to reevaluate whether any additional frost headlines will be necessary for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 PM Tuesday... A sfc high pressure will extend from the adjacent coastal waters of the Mid Atlantic, east and south into WV Wednesday night. The high center shifts overhead as it strengthened controlling the weather conditions. Very dry conditions expected through Friday night. Minimum RH values will dip into the 20s in parts of the area Wednesday afternoon, with 30s again widespread Thursday afternoon, becoming more confined to the mountains for Friday afternoon. By Saturday night, the high drifts east as an approaching cold front tightens the pressure gradient to pump moist and warmer air into the area under southwest flow.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Tuesday... High pressure continues in control on Saturday through Sunday night. Will have to monitor each afternoon after mixing could bring low RH into the mid 30s. An increase in southwest flow is expected as the front approaches. An upper level trough and surface cold front to cross from the west Sunday night into Monday. Models are in agreement with the timing of FROPA as an upper level through passes through. After drying out behind the front Monday night, the slowing, deepening upper level trough over the area spells lots of clouds, and the chance for showers into Tuesday. Guidance suggests a warming trend through Sunday, followed by temperatures falling back to normal early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 620 AM Tuesday... VLIFR river valley fog through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR with light surface winds. VLIFR valley fog developing again tonight after 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Less fog may develop tonight than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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