Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271733 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1233 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLOUDS HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES STILL IN PLACE AT KBKW AND K6L4. CLOUDS STILL LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS NW 2/3 OF CWA ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS. COLD AIR ALOFT IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID PUT IN SOME TOKEN 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CHARLESTON FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WITH PEAKS OF SUN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ON GRASS...PAVEMENT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WET. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AS THEY BEGIN TO ERODE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. ALSO HAVE A SLUG OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROPPING IN FROM THE NE...IMPACTING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE MAY HELP MAKE IT FEEL WARMER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID-30S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. STILL FEEL LIKE A NON DIURNAL TRACE WILL BE REALIZED WITH A RISE IN TEMPS LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RIDGES PER WAA ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE PLACES LIKE EKN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE SNOWSHOE SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S BY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. SUSPECT MAINLY RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA. APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 6 INCHES AND PUT THE N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...ENDING THE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH GRADUAL SCT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH LOW 20S HIGH ELEVATIONS. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD TANK. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ONE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAKER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT COMES OVER THE STILL HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND ROLLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH GOES JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TYPICAL WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS IN SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN. HOWEVER...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING LATER FRIDAY...WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE LOW LANDS BY THE TIME SNOW TAPER OFF LATER FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE IN BETWEEN DAY OF SYSTEMS WITH A RATHER TRANQUIL BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA...TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A STRONG AND WET SYSTEM AS A RATHER POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM CRASHES THRU THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE DETACHED SOUTHERN ROUTE PER OUR CURRENT FORECAST...WPC...AND MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SNOW SYSTEM EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED AT THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL CHANGES IN HANDLING THE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOUDS AGAINST THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...MOISTURE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...HOWEVER DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AT BKW EVENTUALLY. ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...CROSSING ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CLEARING AREAS/HOLES IN THE STRATUS COULD VARY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR...AND EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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