Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251835 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 235 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING. A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS. OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY. ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE. THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS AND BL PUFF. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS KCKB/KEKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...30

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