Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 281219 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 819 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA...AND ANTICIPATE IT TO CLEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL...ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO KEEP SOME TOKEN POPS ACROSS MAINLY VA COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND LIFT INTO CU THROUGH THE MORNING. MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND WARMING THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE CONVECTION ON OUR GRAVEYARD SHIFT THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA HAD SOME DUMPERS. MAXIMUM MEASURED/OBSERVED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR. LUCKILY THE DURATION OF THAT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS ABOUT AN HOUR...KEEPING MAXIMUM RAIN TOTALS UNDER 2 INCHES. TIME WAS DEVOTED TO RADAR AND HYDROLOGY...AND THUS LESS TIME THAN USUAL ALLOTTED FOR UPDATING THIS SHORT TERM. A WEAK SE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ON FRIDAY...SO CONTINUED THE 20/30 POPS MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...BUT ALSO TAILING WEST TO CATCH NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB RIDGE SHOULD BE PASSING ON FRIDAY. THE OLD LOW LEVEL DEW POINT GRADIENT SHOULD BE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY THEN...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 925 MB FLOW DOES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT OUR OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...COULD KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP LIFTING NORTH FOR A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE DRIER MEAN RH THAT PENETRATED ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...TRIES TO LIFT BACK THRU US ON SATURDAY...BUT HAD TO LEAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR MANY COUNTIES. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE NARROW CAPE WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 35 TO 40K IN THE MORE HUMID AIR. WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS IN THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST IN THE INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW. DID DECREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT ON SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PCPN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND ANTICIPATE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE STILL TO START SCATTERING OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM EKN-CRW AND EAST. PKB HAS ALREADY LOST THE CLOUDS...AND THINK CKB AND HTS SHOULD SCATTER OUT NEXT. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SCATTER AND LIFT INTO A VFR CU DECK BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY. COULD GET AN ISOLATED T-SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO STREAM BACK INTO CWA FROM THE SW. THINK NORTHERN CWA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR WITH FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH IT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW THICK THE CLOUDS ARE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...MZ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.