Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251953 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 253 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Turning colder for the rest of this weekend. Warmer with upper level disturbances and rain showers next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 115 PM Saturday... Cold front will continue to move east and out of the area late this afternoon. Rain showers will exit as well. Much colder air is on tap for tonight and tomorrow with temperatures dipping into the 20s over much of the area...with some teens in the colder valleys of the northern mountains. H500 trof will swing through tonight. This will keep the chance for snow showers or flurries with brisk WNW winds in the forecast for upslope areas of our eastern mountains overnight tonight. High pressure quickly builds over the area tomorrow bringing plenty of sunshine, but much cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 235 PM Saturday... High confidence in the first half of the short term forecast with cool and dry high pressure centered over the region. Clouds will be on the increase on Monday as a warm front lifts northward through West Virginia. During the day Monday we should remain mostly dry. Model guidance is spitting out some light QPF for Monday, however low levels are quite dry and QPF may be a bit overdone. Current thinking is that we may see a few sprinkles and VIRGA during the day and for now I decided to just go with slight chance to low chance PoP in the forecast. With the cloud cover, we will see low temps much warmer Monday night as most areas should remain in the low 40s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 240 PM Saturday... Not much changes from the previous forecast. Very warm conditions once again for the area as we head into the middle of the week under deep southwesterly flow. However, flow amplifies with deep upper trough starting to dig over the Central U.S. late Wednesday and progressing east through the remainder of the period. Guidance shows intense low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes and driving a strong cold front across the area Thursday. This will continue our roller coaster weather as temperatures turn much colder for the end of the work week with possibly some snow on tap for next Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 115 pM Saturday... Cold front over the eastern mountains of WV will continue to move eastward and exit the region this afternoon. Showers associated with it will exit as well. Upper level trof will swing through tonight. This will keep mainly MVFR cigs over northern portions of the area from a line from PKB to EKN and areas North. VFR cigs south. Winds the rest of this afternoon will continue out of the WNW between 10-15kts gusting to 25kts the rest of this afternoon and into this evening. Brief MVFR/IFR vsbys in snow showers are possible over the Northern WV mountains overnight. High pressure builds in across the region early Sunday morning from W to E. VFR cigs and diminishing winds will be the norm during the day on Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR Cigs and Vsbys may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M H L M M H M L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MPK NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JS

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