Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270625 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 225 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses Thursday with showers. High pressure Friday into Saturday. A weak cold front Saturday night or Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 225 AM Thursday... Some light precipitation moving across parts of Ohio this morning, with warm frontal boundary associated with low pressure, currently centered across northern IL/IN, in place. Models having a difficult time depicting this precipitation this morning, so generally tried to base morning pops off radar trends, with better chances across northern SE Ohio and northern WV zones. Focus then shifts to a cold front that will push east into the region later today as the aforementioned low moves north and east into the Great Lakes region. Cold front should enter southeast Ohio zones by early to mid afternoon, and exit to the east of the CWA late this evening. Out ahead of the front and behind, expect gusty southwesterly to westerly winds to develop, along with -shra. There could be a rumble of thunder later this afternoon, with best chances across the north and east. In addition, plenty of low cloud cover behind the front, which should linger for at least much of the evening/night, particularly across the higher terrain/eastern counties. In addition, could even see a transition over to -dz later this evening behind the front, particularly across eastern zones. Some partial clearing is possible late tonight across parts of SE Ohio and WV lowlands. Much cooler air will filter in behind the front tonight, with the coolest temperatures across the higher terrain counties, and southeast Ohio zones. At this point, not expecting any frost or freeze headlines, with the expectation of some light wind continuing for at least the first half of the night, although winds should decrease particularly across western zones late as high pressure builds in from the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... Models showing strong cold air advection Thursday night behind the cold front. With some low level moisture remaining near the mountains in the northwest flow, can not rule out some light rain or drizzle. A warm front will then push northward across the area on Friday. With the low level moisture having dried out by then, no precipitation is expected with the front. High pressure then builds in Friday night and remains into Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... Lots of uncertainty with the timing of a cold front moving through sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night, with a possible wave along the front. Therefore, will keep pops fairly generic without specific timing. Uncertainty in the pattern continues into the next week with a wide spread of solutions between models. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 AM Thursday... Mainly VFR to start, however, a cold front, along with sct -shra and isold -tsra will affect the area, mainly after 09-12Z. Out ahead of, and behind the frontal boundary, southwesterly winds will develop and strengthen, with gusts up to 22 kts expected, with higher gusts of up to 30 kts across the higher terrain. Bulk of gusty winds will die off after 22Z. Expect low VFR or brief MVFR conditions in vcnty of precipitation. However, behind the front, expect widespread MVFR cigs to develop from west to east, mainly after 18Z. Some clearing to VFR mainly across southeast Ohio and northeast KY after 03Z, however, MVFR cigs will continue to linger, particularly along and east of a line from KCRW to KCKB. Lastly, radar LLWS of about 35 to 40 kts at about 1800 feet, and added this to several TAF sites tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of gusty winds or MVFR conditions later today may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Areas of IFR possible late Thursday night/early Friday across the mountains in low ceilings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY/30 AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.