Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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020 FXUS61 KRLX 191827 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 227 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level impulse brings some showers, perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm, through Wednesday. Weak high pressure builds late week through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... A weak upper level short wave trough moving across the area this afternoon and Wednesday, may end the broken record of overnight and early morning dense valley fog, although still have some fog in the forecast. The short wave, and the tail end of a warm front lifting through the Great Lakes, was producing a patchwork of showers in a band from Ohio southward, through eastern KY and central TN. There were also thunderstorms included in the band farther south, in KY and TN, on account of less cloud, and hence more heating, ahead of it there. That trend will continue eastward, until sundown reduces the thunder chance. Continue to carry a slight chance for showers tonight as the short wave trough moves over the area, with coverage increasing a bit Wednesday afternoon per diurnal heating, and the feature moving east. However, greater instability on some clearing west, and higher dew points there, will tend to equalize the chance for thunder west versus east. Temperatures and dew points looked good in light of the latest guidance, with clouds resulting in not quite as cool a night tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 225 PM Tuesday... Still the possibility of isold showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as weak impulses traverse the region. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this time of year, with foggy mornings continuing.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Tuesday... Upper ridging will strengthen across the eastern U.S. during the period, with continued hot/above normal temperature conditions. Could be an isolated storm or shower over the higher terrain at times, but overall, period looks to be relatively dry, with light surface winds, and a continuation of foggy conditions in river valleys. A cold front will arrive by the middle of next week/end of the extended period, providing a greater chance for showers and storms.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... A weak upper level disturbance may break the persistent morning fog, as it brings altocu and some stratocu, along with some showers, across the area this afternoon through Wednesday. Have an MVFR fog forecast for overnight into Wednesday morning, with IFR in fog late, toward dawn Wednesday in most cases, a little earlier north. The chance for showers is too small for a specific TAF mention this period, but a shower directly impacting a site tonight, followed by any clearing, could easily lead to dense fog. Have this idea coded for HTS very late. Light and variable flow surface and aloft will become light west aloft tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add a shower mention along and west of I-77 this afternoon or early this evening. Timing and density of fog may vary overnight into Wednesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning through the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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