Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231935 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 335 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DRY WARM FRONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. AS SUCH...ISSUED AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE SW VA COUNTIES. RH WILL RECOVER A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TOMORROW WITH LOW DEWPOINTS BEHIND A DRY WARM FRONT TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN WV COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THE SE OHIO COUNTIES...PROMPTING A FREEZE WARNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE IN LIMITING SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY. WHILE THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKEN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT DOES NOW HAVE A BETTER MOISTURE FEED AND UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT THIS IS MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE. DESPITE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WILL ONLY SLOW THIS FRONT DOWN A TOUCH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. THUS... LEANING AWAY FROM THE SLOWEST NAM AND TOWARD THE FASTEST GFS AND ECMWF. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT...AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND IT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... BRINGING MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER UP NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ELSEWHERE BACK INTO THE 70S SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STRATOCU DECK STILL HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WV. IT CONTINUES TO ERODE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FEW SITES SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 03Z THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT COULD VARY. CIGS COULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED IF CLOUDS ARE DEEPER THAN ANTICIPATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011- 016>020-027>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL/LS NEAR TERM...LS SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...LS

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