Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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719 FXUS61 KRLX 180548 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1248 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses Saturday night. Many may see first flakes of season Sunday. High pressure much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 930 PM Friday... Hi-res models are starting to get into the Saturday afternoon time frame and do show a small potential for some 40kt wind gusts across the far west. New NAM soundings have also backed off on the low level inversion just a touch which could allow for better momentum transfer. With this in mind, have opted for a wind advisory across KY and VA counties. Next shift will have to watch this trend to see if it continues to push east for possible expansion of the advisory. Also did some major surgery on temperatures tonight. Still have a non-diurnal trend taking over, but the valleys have decoupled and temps have tanked the last couple hours. It will take a while for the trend to turn around so have lowered lows and slowed onset of warming. As of 145 PM Friday... Models show pressure gradient tightening overnight and Saturday. With winds expected to stay up most of the night, will go above MOS guidance for lows. Some showers should move into southeast Ohio late tonight, progressing eastward on Saturday. Strong low level winds look threatening with showers, but meso models show a low level inversion that could help protect and keep the stronger winds from mixing to the surface before the front. Am concerned with winds mixing to the ground with the front itself however. Will need to monitor this situation closely. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday... Models continue to track low pressure just north of our area, with the cold front pushing through overnight Saturday. The strong cold front is expected to move into our Ohio counties starting at 00z and exit the West Virginia mountains around 06z. As the cold front pushes through and colder air moves in, rain will transition over to snow or rain/snow mix in some areas. The transition will begin in our northern mountains around 08z Sunday and our northern and Ohio counties around 12z. Central WV and the southern lowlands are expected to remain mostly rain throughout the weekend, but may see a few flakes falling early Sunday. Snow showers are expected to hang around the mountains into Sunday evening. Current thinking has accumulating snow only in the mountains. 1 to 3 inches are expected Saturday into Monday Winds with the front are expected to be gusty. The higher elevations can see gusts up to 45 knots. Elsewhere, some strong gusts will be possible any thunderstorms that may form. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday... Went with a blend of models. For the most part high pressure dominates this period with the exception of a short wave trough moving through early Wednesday. The mountains may see light precipitation falling as snow showers. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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06Z Saturday through 06Z Sunday... As of 1245 AM Saturday... A warm front will bring some showers...mainly across the north Saturday morning, with local MVFR conditions developing, particularly across southeast Ohio, and northern West Virginia. After 14Z, gusty south-southwesterly winds will develop, with sustained winds in the teens, and gusts in the 20 kt range. After 00Z sunday, a cold frontal boundary will move through the region, with showers, and widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions developing, particularly after 02Z. In addition, there is the potential for an uptick in winds with the front. Included llws at several sites through early this morning with llj overhead. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and associated restrictions could vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 11/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Saturday night in rain, possibly mixing with snow across the north by dawn. IFR may linger through Sunday across the northern mountainous counties in upslope snow showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL NEAR TERM...TE/RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...SL

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