Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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038 FXUS61 KRLX 280806 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 406 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A large upper level low brings unsettled weather into the area this afternoon and tonight. This system will affect the area through the work week, before pulling out over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM Wednesday... Upper low across the Great Lakes region...will gradually dig south into the midwest today. Models have slowed entry of precipitation/frontal boundary from the west until later this evening...and have adjusted pops accordingly. Greatest slug of moisture/precipitation still looks to be just to the east of the cwa...with strong southerly winds and high moisture transport into that area...and models in good agreement with keeping axis of higher moisture out of the cwa. Moist southeasterly flow...will lead to an increase in cloud cover across the mountains later today...particularly across eastern slopes...along with the possibility for -shra. Otherwise...much of the CWA will remain dry and sunny through at least the afternoon hours...with showers increasing in coverage this evening with approach of frontal boundary. Expecting another afternoon of warm temperatures...and good mixing...with gusty winds in the afternoon...and relative humidities dipping into the 30 percent range...particularly across the WV lowlands. For tonight...expecting showery conditions...with bulk of activity across western zones associated with frontal boundary.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 400 AM Wednesday... Large, anomalously deep upper level low meanders in a rex block about central Kentucky Thursday through Friday, before slowly drifting northward into Michigan by Sunday morning, as the rex block breaks down. This positioning keeps the main Atlantic moisture feed from the southeast, northeast of the forecast area for the most part. However, The NAM12 suggests a second band of heavy rainfall farther west, right over the forecast area, Thursday afternoon and night, when the upper low is at its southwestern-most point, just east of Nashville. A good chance for showers continues on Friday, with the upper low close by to the west. The chance for showers should diminish from south to north Friday night, as the upper low drifts northward. Showers do remain possible west, over the middle Ohio Valley, on Saturday, closer to the northward tracking low. Saturday night should turn out mainly dry as the upper low moves up into Michigan, far enough to the north and west to allow the dry slot to envelop the entire forecast area. Instability due to diurnal heating below the low upper level heights and temperatures gives rise to the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. These low values increase enough to leave the chance for late day thunder out on Saturday, with the upper low drifting away from the area. Not much change needed to temperatures in light of the latest guidance. Highs will be lowest west, closer to the upper level low. Thursday and Thursday night will also be coolest near the tug fork, when the upper low is farthest south. Overall, temperatures run near to a little below normal by day and near to a little above normal by night, for diurnal ranges a bit on the small side.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... The pesky upper low will gradually track north over the weekend...with less of an influence on the sensible weather as the days progress. This will result in a dry pattern taking hold again with temperatures moderating to normal and eventually above normal. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... Most areas should remain VFR with light surface winds overnight...although local IFR/LIFR valley fog is possible...generally after 08Z...in favored river valleys...impacting sites such as KCRW and KEKN. Any fog will burn off after 13Z...for a return of VFR conditions area wide. South to southeasterly winds today...with occasional gusts in the teens. Clouds will increase during the period...but should remain mostly VFR...with the exception of along the eastern slopes of the higher terrain...where the possibility exists for MVFR cigs and vsbys to develop in moist southeasterly flow...generally after 00Z. -shra will move into the area generally after 23Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of any fog overnight may be more widespread if temps drop far enough and dew points keep jumping. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/28/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L M H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...MPK/30 AVIATION...SL

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