Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290542 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1215 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 915 PM UPDATE... A THINNER OVERCAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IS/WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET LOWER OVERNIGHT...USED MOSTLY THE LAV AND CURRENT TRENDS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. THESE SMALL DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY INTO THU MORNING...AND MAINTAINING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION BY MID MORNING...IS JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN SE OHIO. THE 21Z SREF ALSO NOW SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL STARTING TO EDGE INTO THESE COUNTIES. THANKS TO PBZ AND ILN FOR COORD ON THIS. 700 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK BUT WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MEASURABLE OR NOT VERY CLOSE TO WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING IN SE OHIO AFTER DAYBREAK THU MORNING. THE 15Z SREF SUGGESTS THE FREEZING RAIN SCOOTS JUST TO THE NW OF PERRY CO. PREV DISCN... STRATUS DECK FINALLY BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT STILL A CHILLY DAY. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. HAVE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIALLY...LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA TO START. WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WILL ALSO SEE SOME WET BULBING AND IN NW PART OF CWA COULD SEE BRIEF SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES...BUT WITH THE WET BULBING THIS COULD JUST AS EASILY BE SLEET. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. SNOW/SLEET WILL LINGER AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NEW GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH SLOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE AS SLOW AS THE MODELS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP OFTEN SEEMS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT TONIGHT...HAVE NON DIURNAL TREND FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN BEGIN WARMING SOME PRE-DAWN IN SE OHIO AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN KHTS AREA BY 09Z. IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK...SO TIMING OF THE WARM-UP IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE QUICK ONCE IT HAPPENS. SPENDING MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE A NICE WARM-UP WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND EVEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WILL SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIR...WILL SEE A GRADUAL LOSS OF MOISTURE...SO ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH BETTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AS SNOW RATIOS INCREASE IN THE COLDER AIR. STILL FIGURING ON SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...BUT AT THIS POINT...AM NOT GETTING ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION IN THE HWO IN CASE THE FORECAST CHANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES WILL SEE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG RIDGE TOPS...BUT AT THIS POINT...DO NOT SEE COUNTY AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 01/29/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY

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