Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201745 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1245 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will pass later today, with some sprinkles or light rain possible. This will also usher in milder temperatures for the weekend. A strong cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Saturday... Previous forecast on track. As of 600 AM Saturday... Adjusted temperatures and sky cover for this morning based on current obs and trends. Non-diurnal trend now in full swing -- it even appears that the more sheltered valleys have broken through the inversion with temperatures on the increase. As of 1250 AM Saturday... Tricky temperatures again early this morning, as some areas have decoupled and cooled quickly, while others remain mixed. In general, have temperatures bottoming out in next couple hours before starting to warm with incoming clouds and continued SW flow. In a somewhat odd synoptic setup, our SW flow is actually producing some mid level cold advection with closed upper low near the Gulf Coast. So did not start warming higher elevations until after sunrise. Clouds should be on the increase today. Initially, expecting a layer of cirrus which is already spreading in from the west. But with the SW flow, the low to mid levels begin to saturate, with a stratus deck forming/moving in from the SW. As moisture continues to pump in, eventually we will see some drizzle/sprinkles/light rain as a warm front lifts through. Blended in ECMWF MOS for highs, which bumped up highs a degree or two across the south. The warm front departs to the north overnight, so cut back on POPs. However still lingered slight chance to chance across the north with GFS/ECMWF a bit slower than the NAM lifting the front through. Went with a non-diurnal temperature trend tonight, especially across the south after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Saturday... Evolution and timing are relatively consistent with the cold front as it pushes into the middle Ohio Valley and exits the central Appalachians. Warm frontal showers will push northward of the region as the cyclone approaches with increasing low level flows. As mentioned in the previous overnight forecast, will see strong low level moisture transport, so will need to watch the potential for brief moderate to heavy rain. Overall amounts should not be all that high, but will need to watch the hydro aspect of this with ice jams still present on some of the area creeks, streams, and rivers. Temperatures ahead of the front should reach the 60s across the lowlands Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 AM Saturday... Extended forecast begins in the post frontal environment of the Pacific frontal system with a period of lingering low level moisture that will eventually yield snow showers in the higher elevation of the mountains. Next wave of high pressure builds in from the plains, progressive, and will bring return flow by the end of the long term with above normal temperatures once again. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Saturday... Morning MVFR stratus have lifted leading to mostly sunny skies. Satellite and sfc obs suggest there is broken thin cirrus across the area. In addition, a mid level deck is evident in satellite images to affect southern WV including BKW through this evening. High pressure will continue in control with widespread VFR conditions through the period. A warm front will lift across the area overnight tonight. Although light drizzle or sprinkles can occur with this feature, confidence is low, and were not included in TAF. Flow will continue out of the S to SW through the TAF period. A cold front will approach Monday capable to produce IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds along the heaviest rain showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add IFR visibilities if drizzle or rain materialize tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H L H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M L H M M M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Monday/Monday night under rain showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ/26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ARJ

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