Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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516 FXUS61 KRLX 250705 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 305 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Additional disturbances provide precipitation chances over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... An upper low pressure system will move east from the Ohio Valley, east across WV through tonight. This track could bring additional rainfall to the area. In fact, high resolution and synoptic models are in agreement on a strong vorticity max that will sweep across the area this afternoon. Soils across the southern half of WV are near saturated, and the area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. It will take less rainfall to produce flooding problems. Therefore, issued a Flash Flood Watch for counties across central and southern WV, and extreme southwest VA through this evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Wednesday... Upper level low will move off to the northeast Thursday night and Friday, with showers pulling out of the area. Models are fairly consistent with a disturbance then moving through Friday night into Saturday, providing additional showers, with thunderstorms possible by Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 PM Wednesday... Models show a disturbance moving across the area Saturday night or Sunday. Depending on the timing of this disturbance, could see some decent CAPE for Sunday afternoon. Will need to keep an eye out for the possibility of hail. Models then diverge a bit with the timing of a cold front for early next week. This leads to a low confidence forecast for the timing of precipitation Monday and Tuesday, in addition to temperatures during this time frame. By Wednesday, cooler air from an upper level trough should be over the area with a few showers not out of the question. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1050 PM Wednesday... Showers are moving north away from HTS, CRW, BKW, but affecting CKB, EKN and PKB with IFR/MVFR conditions through a least 08-09Z. An MVFR ceiling could stay over most sites for the rest of the night. Conditions should improve by 13-14Z. A low pressure system could produce numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and evening. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible along the heavier showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... Forecast Confidence: Low ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Post thunderstorm environments tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible during rainfall. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ013-015-024>027- 033-034-515-517-519. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.