Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161953 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 253 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Anafront east of the mountains, will produce snow accumulations tonight. Arctic high pressure crosses Wednesday and Thursday. Southwest flow of milder air this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Radar images show two distinctive snow bands crossing the KY and WV border near the tri state area. Sfc reports indicate 2 to 3 inches of snow have fallen during the last 12 hours. Additional 3 inches of rain can be expected with these snow bands across portions of southern WV through this evening. Therefore, a Winter weather advisory for snow has been upgraded to winter storm warning for heavy snow, and the rest of the area remains under snow advisories. Under strong cold advection, temperatures will fall into the single digits everywhere overnight into early Wednesday morning. Went with the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Tuesday... High pressure will continue to build overhead on Wednesday night and another cold night is expected. Wind Chills could reach advisory criteria in the mountain zones. Will continue to highlight in the HWO. Good news is that ridging continues to build overhead with warm air advection and temperatures should climb above freezing by Thursday afternoon for a large portion of the region. Friday will even be warmer yet as ridging remains overhead and warm SW flow pushes into the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Tuesday... A warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area over the weekend, with light rain showers developing by Saturday afternoon. We will be well within the warm sector on Sunday, with temperatures possibly climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Cold front comes through on on Monday and will bring a shot of moderate to heavy rain with it. As the system pulls out, we may see a changeover to snow in the mountains Monday night.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 640 AM Tuesday... Although the cold front already past east of the mountains, moisture behind the front will continue to fall as snow this afternoon. These snow will lead to IFR/LIFR conditions across southeast OH and lowlands of WV to include CRW, PKB, HTS and CKB through this evening. EKN and BKW could be under IFR/LIFR conditions under snow through at least 09Z tonight. Expect a gradual improvement to VFR/MVFR conditions spreading from west to east this evening. MVFR stratocu will linger a few hours longer, especially in and near the mountains, with VFR conditions along the Ohio River tonight. Northwest flow across the remainder of the area behind the front. Flow aloft will become light southwest tonight, with the front aloft well behind the surface front, a characteristic of anafronts. Flow aloft will finally become light northwest overnight tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR to IFR in snow may vary this afternoon and tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR in snow at times lingering into Wednesday in the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ520>526. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ005- 006-013>015. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for WVZ024>026-033-034-515>519. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for OHZ076- 085>087. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-083-084. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ101>103-105. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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