Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180853 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 453 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT AROUND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AROUND 14Z AT MOST PLACES. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS REACHING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREV FCST WITH LATEST DATA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SAT WITH RESULTANT BL WINDS SETTING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THAT GENERAL AREA AS SUCH...AGAIN WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. LATEST NAM12 MOISTURE PROFILES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FURTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT AROUND THE 850MB-800MB LEVEL MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE AS WELL AS THE CO-LOCATED INSTABILITY. THUS FOR NOW...LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR ALL OF THE LOWLANDS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY UPPER 70S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD. DRY WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ONLY CHANGE OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO RAMP UP TEMPS ON SATURDAY BY A GOOD 3-5 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. TEMPS AT 925MB PROGGED AROUND 20C-22C SHOULD RESULT IN LOW 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...A TREND WHICH IS ALSO BEARING OUT IN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER SAT NIGHT VERSUS FRI NIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODIS FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGES ALREADY SHOWING RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF OUR CWA...AND SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT 03Z. DOPPLER VAD WIND PROFILER INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET SUGGESTING MARGINAL WIND CONDITIONS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. HOWEVER...BELIEVE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY DECOUPLE AND MODELS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOW 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH IFR DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE LOWLAND SITES INCLUDING EKN...AND IFR LOW STRATUS AT BKW OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT FROM 13-14Z LEADING TO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODELS SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE RUNS HIGH ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NAM MODEL SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING AROUND 18-21Z. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MID CLOUD FORMATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO ANOTHER CLOUD VERSUS FOG ISSUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. COULD NOT EVEN COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN 06Z TO 12Z IN THE SOUTH OR MOUNTAIN WITH WEAKER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE TURNING OF SOUTHEAST FLOW LATE THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLOUDS AND LESS FOG FOR THE 06Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME WOULD BE POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/18/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L M H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ

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