Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211817 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 117 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through the week. Weak system tonight into Wednesday. Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weather for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 115 PM Tuesday... Forecast on track this very dry day. As of 1045 AM Tuesday... Forecast on track other than to hold back the showers arriving from the southwest slightly later today. As of 345 AM Tuesday... Currently under high pressure. Should see increasing clouds today as a system approaches the region. Despite the clouds, temperatures still should make it to 70 F. Light rain showers should begin to make it into the region shortly before midnight. Slow moving system lingers into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... Linger likely POPs across far southern CWA into Wednesday morning. A warm front lifts through Thursday. Models still struggling some to agree on this, with the ECMWF keeping most precip north of the CWA, while NAM and GFS have it farther south across us. And even then, NAM seems quite a bit more robust with it than the GFS. Stuck with chance POPs across the area, envisioning at least some scattered showers. If the NAM is right, should also get some thunder, while GFS and especially the ECMWF do not indicate much of a thunder chance. With this in mind, dropped thunder mention to slight chance. Temperatures will remain warm, hedged on the warmer side of consensus guidance for highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the lowlands both Wednesday and Thursday. Even the mountains should be pushing 60 degrees on Thursday afternoon with decent WAA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... Friday looks mainly dry, and very warm as we are firmly in the warm sector of a strong low crossing the Northern Plains. This will drive a strong cold front through Friday night, with showers and thunderstorm. With overnight timing, threat of severe weather should remain to our west, but bears watching as we could still see 40-50kt shear. GFS continues to indicate a broad area of wrap-around moisture while ECMWF continues with quick cut off late Saturday as a surface high noses in. Lingered low POPs into Saturday night. Cold enough air in place at this point to see some snow flakes across the mountains with this. Model differences continue Sunday into Sunday night as the ECMWF keeps the high in place, while the GFS has a quick moving cold front fly through. Went with slight chance POPs with this Sunday night. GFS is cold enough for this to be light snow across CWA, while ECMWF is about 5 degrees warmer at 850mb and would only indicate potential for some flakes across the north. More organized system approaching from the west on Monday, so start ramping POPs up late in the day. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 115 PM Tuesday... After a VFR afternoon, a weak wave is likely to bring showers across mainly southern portions of the area tonight into Wednesday, lowering visibilities and then ceilings to MVFR overnight across southern sites HTS, CRW and BKW. The showers will gradually taper off from west to east on Wednesday. Visibilities will improve to VFR during the day, but MVFR ceilings are likely to linger throughout the area throughout the day. Surface flow will generally be light south to southeast beneath light south to southwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High becoming medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low MVFR ceilings approaching IFR in the HTS tri- state area beginning early Tuesday may not be quite as low as forecast. MVFR timing and extent may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW NEAR TERM...TRM/JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

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