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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 252033
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
350 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area
bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Additional
disturbances bring showers and storms over the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

Well defined upper level vort max rotating through the base of
the parent upper low bringing a shield of light rain through the
Tri State area and coal fields. Rates are generally light, and
should pose too much of a problem despite the coverage and
hitting most of the basins. Flash flood guidance down in that
area is less than an inch over an hour, but we should be below
that threshold.

With the upper low passing this evening and the 500mb height
gradient sharpening in its wake, expecting winds to increase
tonight with ridge and mountain top gusts in the 25-35kt range.
BUFKIT profiles do not show advisory criteria wind to mix down
from the NAMnest model/momentum transfer.

POPs exit tonight, lastly in the northeast mountains with a
brief chance for drying heading into the Friday time period.
Temperatures should be significantly warmer over the Tri State
and coal fields/southern mountains tomorrow with a better chance
to see sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 350 PM Thursday...

Models showing a disturbance moving through the area Friday night
into Saturday, providing some showers. Behind the disturbance, the
atmosphere destabilizes with strong thunderstorms possible Saturday
afternoon and evening. Will have to watch for the possibility of
severe storms. With the ground already saturated from recent rains,
also concerned with flash flooding.

Yet another disturbance will move through Saturday night into
Sunday, with thunderstorms once again possible in the afternoon and
evening behind the wave. Flash flooding once again could be a
problem. A weak cold front will then push through Sunday night into
Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 350 PM Thursday...

A weak cold front will push south of the area Monday morning. This
will leave the area under a persistent upper level trough for
Tuesday through Thursday. This will provide relatively cool weather,
with disturbances rotating through the trough providing showers at
times.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

Brief IFR possible in showers, but thunder is very limited and
certainly not expecting any for prevailing conditions at any of
the terminals. Shield of rain moving across the southern zones
to affect HTS/CRW/BKW and eventually into EKN, with more hit or
miss activity for the PKB/CKB areas. Still tried to be as
deterministic as possible using high res models through the
first 12 hours of the forecast.

Have a chance for ceilings to come back down again tonight into
the IFR range, but this will need to happen before around 06Z
when winds will increase, stirring the lower levels. With the
wind in place, using 1-2kft ceilings and MVFR prevailing through
the back half of the TAF.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...


Forecast Confidence: Low to medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMD may be needed for shower activity and
brief IFR. Ceilings into tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible during showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ013-015-
     024>027-033-034-515-517-519.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26