Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252033 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 350 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Additional disturbances bring showers and storms over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Thursday... Well defined upper level vort max rotating through the base of the parent upper low bringing a shield of light rain through the Tri State area and coal fields. Rates are generally light, and should pose too much of a problem despite the coverage and hitting most of the basins. Flash flood guidance down in that area is less than an inch over an hour, but we should be below that threshold. With the upper low passing this evening and the 500mb height gradient sharpening in its wake, expecting winds to increase tonight with ridge and mountain top gusts in the 25-35kt range. BUFKIT profiles do not show advisory criteria wind to mix down from the NAMnest model/momentum transfer. POPs exit tonight, lastly in the northeast mountains with a brief chance for drying heading into the Friday time period. Temperatures should be significantly warmer over the Tri State and coal fields/southern mountains tomorrow with a better chance to see sun. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 PM Thursday... Models showing a disturbance moving through the area Friday night into Saturday, providing some showers. Behind the disturbance, the atmosphere destabilizes with strong thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Will have to watch for the possibility of severe storms. With the ground already saturated from recent rains, also concerned with flash flooding. Yet another disturbance will move through Saturday night into Sunday, with thunderstorms once again possible in the afternoon and evening behind the wave. Flash flooding once again could be a problem. A weak cold front will then push through Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 350 PM Thursday... A weak cold front will push south of the area Monday morning. This will leave the area under a persistent upper level trough for Tuesday through Thursday. This will provide relatively cool weather, with disturbances rotating through the trough providing showers at times.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 205 PM Thursday... Brief IFR possible in showers, but thunder is very limited and certainly not expecting any for prevailing conditions at any of the terminals. Shield of rain moving across the southern zones to affect HTS/CRW/BKW and eventually into EKN, with more hit or miss activity for the PKB/CKB areas. Still tried to be as deterministic as possible using high res models through the first 12 hours of the forecast. Have a chance for ceilings to come back down again tonight into the IFR range, but this will need to happen before around 06Z when winds will increase, stirring the lower levels. With the wind in place, using 1-2kft ceilings and MVFR prevailing through the back half of the TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... Forecast Confidence: Low to medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AMD may be needed for shower activity and brief IFR. Ceilings into tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR possible during showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ013-015- 024>027-033-034-515-517-519. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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