Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200302 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1002 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Clearing tonight. High pressure Monday through Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 955 PM Sunday... Ended the winter weather advisory for the mountains. Moisture depth did not reach the crystal growth zone, so precipitation was in the form of scattered light snow showers and flurries which will continue for a few more hours. As of 120 PM Sunday... Upper level disturbance is starting to enhance precipitation this afternoon. This disturbance will provide deeper moisture as Lake Michigan plume shifts into northern WV. Expect a period of decent upslope snowfall over the northern mountains this afternoon and evening. Will continue with the winter weather advisory for the higher elevations. A high pressure system then builds over the region providing clearing overnight, remaining in place on Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Sunday... Clear skies and slightly below normal temperatures will remain across the forecast area Monday night. This is in part thanks to an area of surface high pressure. The high will slide east making way for warm southwesterly winds to push Tuesday highs into the 50s to near 60 south. However, this brief warmup will be short-lived. The next cold front will bring another round of cold temperatures to the Region. This front is expected to traverse the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. While there is limited moisture associated with this system, there could be some brief showers or snow showers into the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The best chance for such conditions is the northern sections West Virginia into the higher elevations of the WV Mountains. Conditions should improve quickly Wednesday as surface high pressure takes control and scours out any lingering low level moisture. As previous forecast stated, clouds should remain in place thanks to the upper shortwave through this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 PM Sunday... Fairly quiet weather to start this time period. High pressure hangs on with warming temperatures. It is not until the weekend when conditions once again deteriorate. At the present time, models are leaning toward another strong cold front moving across the area. While this front does not have a lot of moisture with it, the chance for gusty winds and some showers do exist. Will have to keep an eye on this system as the week progresses as it is a major travel week. No significant tweaks were made as models are in good agreement at this time. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1200 PM Sunday... Cold advection snow showers expected over the northeast mountains and EKN through around 08Z Monday. Snow showers will likely be intermittent, so the IFR visibilities in the heavier bands will be TEMPO conditions as opposed to anything prevailing over the next few hours. Low level moisture erodes tonight, lastly in the mountains as well, but have the only restrictions at BKW and EKN. After 12Z Monday, VFR prevails. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions with snow showers may vary. Timing of clearing overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 11/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H M M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H M M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H M H H H M AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY/26 SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...26

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