Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160539 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 139 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATER TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT POSSIBLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER PER LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RULES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS DO HAVE A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT ONLY SOME CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING SOME. FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR FRONTAL TIMING. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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RADAR IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGES...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WINDS AT 2K FEET. THESE WINDS...TOGETHER WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION AT MOST PLACES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT MVFR AT EKN AND OTHER PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY TUESDAY PER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP THEM OUT OF TAF PER LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL SLOW DOWN WIND FLOW AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEAK. WITH WEAKER TO CALM FLOW AT NIGHT...AND FEW CLOUDS...RADIATIONAL FOG IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS AS COOLER BUT WEAK FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS MAY VARY AT ONSET LATE OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/16/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H L H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H L M H H M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H M M H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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