Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221907 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 307 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level low passes to the south and then to the east, keeping rain mainly in the south and east through Sunday. High pressure early next week. Next system late Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Saturday... Eastward moving short wave currently over central parts of WV will be the main player this afternoon as it moves eastward. Hi res models and radar trends indicate a break in the widespread precip behind this feature from northwest to southeast this afternoon. However, with the frontal boundary hanging just south of the area, will maintain higher pops in the south behind this feature remainder of this afternoon. Any thunder will be confined to the far south this afternoon closer to the frontal boundary which is stalled just to our south. Otherwise, rain will be winding down from at least the I64 corridor north and west as both the short wave exits and drier air filters down from the north into these areas this afternoon. Will continue the current Flash Flood watch for the southern mountains with continued higher pops. For tonight and Sunday, the models are in much better agreement in handling the main player for this period. An upper level low will develop over the southeastern states tonight and then lift up to the northeast Sunday. This will combine with the stalled front to our south and bring rain back to the north and east. However, it loos like the mountains will see most of the QPF from this system, while the west and north may see little or no rain. Thus, the flash flood watch will continue in place for the southern mountains. Temps will remain on the cool side with being north of the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday... As the stacked low pressure system creeps towards the southeast coast, inverted troughs aloft and at the surface will prevent a quick exit to the showers through the Monday evening time frame. The system will travel up the coast, lending its influence both in terms of the non dry forecast and considerably cooler temperatures on the eastern slopes of the mountains for Monday and Tuesday, comparatively to the lowlands on the other side. Will take some time to eliminate the mid level moisture from the lows to the east, so have a mainly cloudy forecast in place for the short term. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday... After warming through recovering thicknesses and 850mb temperatures through mid week, long range operational models still having trouble with the next system, which has now become more of a Thursday entity. Two weak upper level waves will merge to the northwest over the western Great Lakes, and continue a track northeastward into northern Ontario, but a frontal system will be poised to push through the Ohio Valley. However, with the main energy well away from our CWA, the frontal system will likely shear out, and the low POP solution into Thursday night is likely to fluctuate in coming runs, but stay on the low end. Baroclinic zone sets up into the weekend, so the higher temperature forecast for the end of the week that came out yesterday has come down a few degrees back to lowland low 80s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Improving conditions spreading south and east this afternoon and tonight as upper disturbance shifts eastward across the area, allowing drier air to filter in from the north. MVFR/IFR in widespread rain and an isolated thunderstorm ahead of the upper disturbance this afternoon, particularly across southern and eastern West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Improvement to VFR ceilings AOA 4000 feet by 00Z across southeast Ohio and northwest WV, including PKB, behind the disturbance. Northerly winds 8 to 13 MPH. VFR ceilings works slowly south and east 00Z-03Z into central WV by 06Z, reaching CKB by 02Z, but remaining just north of a HTS- CRW-EKN line for the remainder of the night. MVFR ceilings continue south of this line; except IFR in the southern mountains, including BKW, where a continued rain threat exists with frontal boundary stalled just to the south. Winds becoming easterly at 5 to 10 MPH. For Sunday, an upper low tracks to the south and then east of the area, spreading rain back to the north and east. However, most of the rain will be in the mountains. Winds southeast 5 to 12 MPH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Improving conditions may be faster and farther south later this afternoon and tonight over the northwestern half of WV, southeast Oh and northeast KY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M L M M M L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L M M L L L L L M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Sunday into Monday with another wave of low pressure. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ033-034. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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