Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221756 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1256 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through early next week with numerous rain showers, as an upper low rotates through the area. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1010 AM Sunday... Made some minor changes to PoP based on current Radar and Meso Model trends. Started the onset a little earlier across SW Virginia, but made a tighter gradient across the northern edge of the precip with chance PoP coming into Charleston at around 17Z. Will continue to monitor precip trends and update as needed through the day. Have decided to leave high temperatures as is for now since WAA should occur through the day. As of 6 AM Sunday... No significant changes made. As of 320 AM Sunday... Our weather will be dominated by upper disturbances rotating around an approaching upper low from the west. With a deep and moist southerly flow prevailing, temperatures will continue to be well above normal for this time of year. Models have one weakening disturbance lifting northward through the area today, with a weakening band of rain showers. QPF amounts will be light and greatest over the south. A stronger disturbance lifts north over the area tonight, but this disturbance will tend to wrap westward around the main approaching upper low. There will likely be a brief break in the rain between these two systems, but have tended to broadly cover higher pops given timing uncertainty. Models also show a relative dry slot working into the area tonight, but uncertainty again supports a general coverage and continuation of the rain showers overnight, with perhaps a bit of a rain shadow just west of the mountains given a low level southeasterly flow. Instability is such that while there may be a rumble of thunder with the second disturbance tonight, not enough confidence to insert thunder in forecast. Greatest QPF this period looks to be along and west of the Ohio River and northeast Kentucky, as the wraparound band of rain trains somewhat. However, not yet seeing a headline for any flood watch, but will continue to highlight possibility in the hazardous weather outlook. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Heaviest band of rain should be departing to the north entering the start of the short term, with models suggesting a lull/dry slot for a short period of time in its wake. If nothing else, this would be a lesser coverage period of the rain, but will still carry the higher POPs given the abundant moisture and myriad of vort maxes rotating through the 500mb flow. As the parent upper level low exits to the northeast, there will be a transition to more of a modest northwest flow scenario with some upslope type precipitation. Cold advection will be modest, however, and the chances for snow will be limited to the northeast mountains. While the forecast snow amounts have been upped slightly, not anticipating any issues with mountain snow going forward. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Despite the lack of significant cold air on this side of the northern hemisphere, a building ridge aloft out west will result in a broad scale trough regime to set up for our area, changing the storm track to more clipper systems in the coming days with quick upper trough reinforcements of lower 500mb heights. Trend will be colder with northwest flow patterns in the low levels after a brief warm up mid week, and have extended chances for snow showers into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Sunday... A busy forecast period with strong closed low pushing south and east of the region. There will be several rounds rain rotating northwest across the area as the low passes. For the most of this afternoon conditions should remain mostly VFR with the exception of BKW where SE flow has kept the moisture trapped against the mountains. First weak wave out ahead of the approaching system is spreading light rain into Southern West Virginia, but conditions should not dip below VFR with this first round, with the exception at CRW where MVFR conditions could briefly occur. More widespread rain overspreads the area from south to north tonight, with conditions lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR in heavier rain showers. Winds will also pick up, but should not be much of an impact other than in the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of southeast upslope clouds today and tonight could vary at BKW. Conditions could fluctuate continuously with rain bands from system overnight and tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H M M M H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR in rain and fog possible Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MPK

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