Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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939 FXUS61 KRLX 251921 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 321 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure shifts east tonight. A cold front will cross Monday with showers and thunderstorms. Cold front passes Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by a closed upper level low moving in.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Models are in good agreement with a cold front moving rapidly eastward across the area Monday. The front will reach the Ohio River by early afternoon and in the mountains by evening. Even with the speed of the system, models have a combination of decent dynamics and pooling of moisture to near 2 inches along the front. Thus, a band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front. However, QPF amounts will only be on the order of a quarter to half an inch, thanks to the speed of the system. SPC continues to outline a marginal risk of severe weather, and will continue this in the Hazardous weather product. Models also have a prefrontal band of convection forming Monday afternoon along and east of the I79 corridor. Not too certain about an organized area of convection there, so will go with scattered convection there in the moist and unstable air; ahead of the frontal band of convection. Convection will then ramp down fairly quickly in the west behind the front by end of period...with even some sunshine by later afternoon. Milder tonight with increased moisture and southerly winds picking up late, especially in the west. Highs Monday will still reach into the 80s ahead of the front. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Sunday... Continuing from the near term forecast, the cold front should move quickly through the mountains, and take the trailing POPS with it. Closed low drops south through the Great Lakes...with a lobe in the cyclonic flow and a cold front developing along the Ohio Valley. The bulk of the frontogenesis will exist in the southeastern half of the CWA ahead of the upper level lobe, keeping these two forcing features separate as they arrive Wednesday. Dropping low level temperatures and 1000-500mb thicknesses signify a wholesale airmass change with the broad closed low over the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 315 PM Sunday... Operational GFS, in a bit of a surprise, has now trended towards the operational ECMWF with the closed low aloft oscillating around over the eastern CONUS. Ensemble members still lean towards an quicker exiting open wave aloft...but the GFS ensemble mean changes from 00Z to 12Z look to be coming more in line with the aforementioned operational long term models. From a sensible weather standpoint, this typically results in a more off than on precipitation scheme and a temperature forecast that can end up cooler than the guidance numbers suggest. For the time of year, nothing seems out of the ordinary in the forecast based on seasonal norms, however.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 18z Sunday thru 18Z Monday... Weak high pressure this afternoon and tonight will shift east by Monday morning, followed a cold front moving east across the area Monday. A VFR mostly clear afternoon on tap for the lowlands and west facing slopes of the WV and southwest VA mountains. On east facing slopes of the mountains, look for SCT-BKN stratocu 2500-3500 feet AGL this afternoon which will affect BKW. Light and variable winds this afternoon, except light easterly winds on east facing slopes. Tonight will feature a similar night to last night. Near calm winds in most of the lowlands, with just an increase in mid to high clouds late tonight, will result in generally MVFR to locally IFR river valley fog after 06z, affecting mainly CRW EKN. Winds will stir just enough to keep fog out of PKB and HTS. Light southeasterly winds in mountains will bring MVFR/IFR ceilings back to mainly east facing slopes of the mountains including BKW after 02z. After 12z, look for rapid dissipation of fog and mountain stratus as southerly winds increase ahead of the cold front. With moisture and instability increasing, there may be a pop up shower or storm anywhere during the afternoon ahead of the front. There will be a band of showers and thunderstorms, with generally MVFR to locally IFR conditions, with the cold front as it moves across the area. Look for the front to reach the Ohio river by 18Z and the mountains by 00Z. Southerly winds 5 to 10 KTS ahead of the front, turning westerly 8 to 12 kts behind the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of fog and stratus reformation tonight may vary. Timing of band of convection with the front Monday may be a bit faster than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Low stratus possible over the mountains Monday night. Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Thursday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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