Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 281010 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 507 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EVEN SO...MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY TO OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN THE MAIN BAND SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND COULD CONTAIN A WINTRY MIX. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS...AS FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY. EXPECT THAT SOME CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES COULD SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... GROWING CONCERN FOR FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. FIRST...THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONT SHIFTING NW OF AREA. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW IN THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEAR TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SHOULD TURN TO SHRA MIDDAY AS SFC TEMPS WARM. ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF WAA PRECIP OVER SW VA/S AND C WV/NE KY ZONES FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THIS MAY TAKE THE FORM OF A BRIEF MIX ACROSS S ZONES SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES...S ZONES MAY EXPERIENCE ONLY ISOLATED SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WAA LIGHT PRECIP SHIFTING INTO N WV/SE OH MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HAVE TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE MID 40S ALONG AND S OF I64 WITH MID UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER N. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SAGGING SE AS A COLD FRONT WITH HELP OF SURFACE HIGH TRYING TO NOSE INTO OH VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRY TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH FROPA BUT MOISTURE WILL BE WANING FOR ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A FEW INCHES TO ACCUMULATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO PA BY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY AFTER MORNING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH. TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 40 S ZONES...TO MID 30S ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED RAIN MAKER SLATED FOR MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS HAVE HAMMERED HOME THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER PROBLEMS AND SEE NO REASON TO BACK DOWN FROM THAT. SIDED MORE WITH THE NEW ECMWF GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW. PRECIP WILL TRY TO BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY. TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS ON E SLOPES AND ESPECIALLY N PORTIONS OF OUR SE OH COUNTIES AS AREA GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR 70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. IT APPEARS THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...SPREADING E INTO NE KY AND THE WV LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT OF A WAVE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON THE MODELS AND FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF WOULD PUT THE NEXT SLUG OF HVY PRECIP IN OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE BAD NEWS GIVEN THE RESIDUAL SNOW PACK...ALTHOUGH A GOOD AMOUNT OF IT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE ALREADY RELEASED INTO CREEKS AND RIVERS. STILL...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING. THE NAEFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES PAINT A SCARY SITUATION ON SOME OF THE RIVERS WITH AN AVG OF 2 INCHES OF QPF TO CONTEND WITH. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIQUID ALREADY IN THE SNOW PACK...WITH SNOWSHOE CHECKING IN WITH 3.75 INCHES SWE ON A 30 INCH SNOWPACK. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE WORRISOME ON THIS SNOWPACK...ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPS. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...WE STILL HAVE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES INDICATING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS...AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF ON A LONG FUSE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AND CONTINUE WITH HWO. HOPEFULLY THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO WILL EVENTUALLY PAN OUT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER IN TERMS OF OVERALL PATTERN...ALTHOUGH TIMING ISSUES REMAIN. BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SLEET AT THE ONSET TUESDAY...BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO SURGE NORTH TO SCOUR OUT COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING LIKE GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING...WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES...OR ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS...WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT EXPECTED ACROSS WV LOWLANDS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. THE HEAVY RAIN...COMBINED WITH ANY SNOW MELT THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES...COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES. THERE IS A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR AND HOW RAPID IT WILL BE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS INITIALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND POSSIBLY RIVERS AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE GOOD NEWS IS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THAT LOW TO OUR SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND TAKING HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOWFALL BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR THE TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AND CLOUDS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...NONE. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...RPY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.