Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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286 FXUS61 KRLX 220655 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 240 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical moisture to bring heavy showers/thunderstorms for the end of the work week into early Saturday. Cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with upper level disturbances possibly providing a few light showers.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Thursday... Kept the low pops in across far north with isolated showers through dawn in close proximity to a warm front. This boundary will retreat off to the north later this morning. Attention quickly turns to what will be the remnants of Cindy. Models continue to be in good agreement on a piece of energy breaking off from the circulation and advancing northeast into the area late afternoon. There may be a few storms in advance of the main area of rain. Despite the surge in pwats, this feature will be progressive this evening, such that flooding concerns are low tonight. QPF amounts of .50 to .75 inches will be common. Tried to show a break late tonight across much of the area, before the next slug of moisture works in from the west at dawn, affecting mainly southeast Ohio, northeast KY, and western WV. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 240 AM Thursday... Tropical moisture remains over the region on Friday, with a cold front and the remaining circulation of Cindy moving through Friday night into early Saturday. Models are in decent agreement with the general pattern, although some small timing differences continue. The big differences between models are still in the location of the heavier precipitation bands. Models generally struggle in tropical systems with this, so not a big surprise. The problem however is where to post a flood watch. Confident that one will be needed, but not confident on where.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 240 AM Thursday... Upper level trough will provide unseasonably mild weather with low humidity through this period. Models have several upper level disturbances moving through the trough, but vary on the strength and timing. Some light showers are possible with these disturbances.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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06Z Thursday through 06Z Friday... As of 150 AM Thursday... There is the possibility of patchy river valley fog during the predawn across northern sites which received a little rainfall this past evening. However, no widespread fog formation is expected due to cirrus and patches of mid deck. Clouds will increase and lower on Thursday, but generally remain VFR. An upper disturbance will move north through the area late this afternoon and evening, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing. Brief periods of IFR vsby is possible as this works thru, with an overall lowering of cigs into MVFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PKB/CKB/EKN may experience IFR or worse in fog should clouds dissipate more. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 06/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday Night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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