Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290720 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 320 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND VERY MILDLY UNSETTLED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. NAM GIVING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB...A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP DROPPING SLOWLY AS THE ARRIVAL OF THE CANADIAN AIRMASS BECOMES COMPLETE. LOWLAND 70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S PROMINENT AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 40S RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER COULD MAKE THIS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AND MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO ADD A COUPLE DEGREES. LEANED ON THE MAV...WHICH WAS THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY IN THE NORTH. ALL THE MODELS SHOW A HEALTHY RH FIELD WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH. BUT WITH LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED...AND LIGHT. SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND MODERATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO MAINLY THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...THE MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS UP A BIT...AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RETROGRADES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MODEST UPSLOPE FORCING INCREASES. INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/29/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M M M M M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...26

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