Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140832 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 332 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers mainly across the northern portion of the area tonight into Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Thursday... Clipper system passing to our north this morning is dragging a cold front through the region. Temperatures have been quite warm overnight, but the cold air behind the front is going to waste no time rushing in. In fact, high temperatures have already been reached for the day and temperatures will continue to drop from here on out, but may level off for a period this afternoon if we can sneak in a little sunshine. With the tight thermal packing, we are seeing winds across the Lowlands gusting generally between 30 to 40 mph, but gusts in the mountains will likely exceed 50 mph early this morning when the tightest thermal packing nudges through around 12Z. Had to hoist up a wind advisory through noon today for our mountain zones. Cut back snowfall totals in the mountains, as moisture is limited and the best forcing is well to our north. However, upslope should still be able to squeeze out an inch or two across the western facing slopes of the mountains. There will be some lingering stratus behind the front, so mostly cloudy conditions will persist through the day with maybe some decreasing clouds late in the afternoon to early evening. Much colder night ahead as the arctic high drifts southeastward and settles overhead.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... Weak high pressure builds into the area Thursday night ahead of yet another clipper system. This time, the parent low stays up across the Great Lakes with only a dragging weak cold front behind. Behind well south of favorable lake-enhanced low-level moisture transport, only a slight chance of snow is advertised across the northern counties with a low chance across the mountains given a small component of upslope enhancement. Modest warm air advection ahead of the front bump afternoon temperatures across the lowlands above freezing after a cold night in the teens and 20`s. Behind the front, winds turn westerly as opposed to northwesterly, making cold air advection into the area negligible - setting up a slightly warmer Friday night/Saturday morning with lows in the mid-20`s in the lowlands and mid-teens to around 20 F in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Weak high pressure builds again behind the short term period`s clipper system Saturday. Winds near the surface turn southwesterly beginning Saturday morning, warm advecting through the weekend with temperatures reaching into the 30`s/40`s on Saturday and into the 40`s/upper 40`s my Sunday. Models agree on a warm front lifting up through the area Sunday accompanied by scattered rain showers and perhaps a snow/mix upon onset during the morning. The associated cold front moves through by Monday night. Model discrepancies are aplenty beyond this point - from the surface through the upper-levels. The progression of a Rockies trough across the CONUS will dictate sensible conditions through the rest of the period. So, went for a general blend beyond this point with a notable period of possible upslope precipitation during Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1235 AM Thursday... A strong cold front will be passing across the region through the early morning hours today. This front will mostly bring some snow showers across Northern West Virginia and the Northeast Mountains. Snow showers at CKB and EKN are most likely and expecting to see some restrictions in those spots, but confidence is still low on how intense the snow will become. Behind the front we can expect MVFR stratus just about everywhere through the day today, with improving conditions late Thursday afternoon. Tight pressure gradient with the front will also cause very gusty winds through dawn today. Gusts higher than 40 knots will be likely in the mountains and in the lower elevations winds of 30 knots or slightly higher may be possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and snow showers tonight may vary. Winds may gusts stronger than currently forecast at some sites. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H M H H H H L L M HTS CONSISTENCY L M H M M H M H H L L M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M L L H M M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M M L M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M L M H M H H M M M L L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Another round of snow is expected across the northern portion of the area on Friday and Friday night, with IFR conditions possible in heavier snow showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ516-518-520-522>524- 526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MPK

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