Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191521 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1059 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREV DISCN... HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT. WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING. THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 15Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND. THRU 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MVFR CIGS 1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. AFTER 00Z... MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...TRM/JMV

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