Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240748 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 348 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. High pressure will provide dry weather through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Isolated showers will move across the eastern 1/2 of the area (along and east of CKB-CRW line) early this morning in association with leading shortwave. The hires guidance shows this activity exiting the eastern mtns by 12z. Residual low level moisture and light winds should promote fog development with dissipation by mid morning. A cold front will push southeast from the OH Valley across the central Appalachians tonight. The hires guidance shows isolated diurnally driven convection with the advancing FROPA mainly between 18-23z. Clearing skies tonight should result in valley fog which may become dense in spots early Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 AM Monday... High pressure in control with seasonable temperatures through Wednesday night. Increasing clouds from the west during Wendesday night as another system approaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sunday... Sfc low tracks across the northern portion of CWA on Thursday with trailing cold front crossing the region Thursday night. Models differ on the exact track of the low, in any case increased pops across the region on Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure builds in across the area on Friday and into the weekend. Increasing moisture through Sunday and there is chance for diurnal showers in the mountains on Saturday and Sunday with the lowlands staying dry. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... Isolated showers over the eastern 1/2 of the airspace should weaken and exit the area by 12z. Areas of fog and low stratus should result in sub-VFR restrictions through 13-14z. VFR expected from mid morning through the afternoon. Cold front pushing southeast across the airspace should trigger isolated convection but coverage not enough for mention in 24/06z TAFs. Clearing skies tonight should promote fog formation into early Tuesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More improved vis/cigs. Increased convective coverage this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/24/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M L M M H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H M H M M H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L M M M H M M M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR Fog possible early Tuesday morning. Mainly VFR through midweek. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...99

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