Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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935 FXUS61 KRLX 200554 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 154 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO SHOW MORE CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIS CLEARING OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS A MID TO LOW DECK OVER CENTRAL OH MOVING SOUTHEAST TO ENTER OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 06Z...AND THEN SPREADING EAST TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER LATEST SFC OBS AS WELL. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... NOT REALLY TOO MANY CONCERNS AT THE MOMENT...WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE BIG QUESTION IS THE EXISTENCE AND/OR EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE POTENTIAL A BIT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND HINTS OF A DECK OF CLOUDS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...THOUGH BELIEVE RIVER BEDS MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE BEFORE THE CLOUD DECK FORMS/ARRIVES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WED NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WILL ONLY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE PICTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE WITH THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. SO FOR YOUR MEMORIAL DAY, COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WEST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OH AND NORTHERN KY MOVING OUR WAY. IN ADDITION...SFC OBS AND SATELLITE HAVE DETECTED A MID TO LOW LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL OH...MOVING SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST OH...INCLUDING PKB BY 08Z. THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY 12Z. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERS INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...SUSPECT FOG FORMATION WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. PERHAPS LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE BY 10-11Z...TOO LATE TO BECOME DENSE AND CREATE IFR CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...REMOVED IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG FROM FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AT MOST PLACES. BY 13-14Z...FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MORE MOISTURE THAN FORECAST AND FOG AND STRATUS COULD PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE ALONG SOME RIVER VALLEYS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L M H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/JW NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...JS/ARJ LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...ARJ

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