Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200255 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1055 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Stalled boundary across Central Ohio tonight heads east as a cold front Thursday, exiting mountains Thursday night. High pressure for most of weekend. Moisture starved cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1050 PM... Forecast on track with showers and weakening thunderstorms brushing western edge of forecast area early on. As of 800 PM Wednesday... Forecast on track although closely watching supercell moving east along the Ohio River and nearly stationary boundary. Did slow timing of showers and thunderstorms arriving from the west Thursday afternoon based on latest guidance trends. As of 145 PM Wednesday... Frontal boundary has started drifting back north again. Radar shows a few echos along and just south of this boundary so went with isolated to scattered showers this afternoon...mainly in SE Ohio and north central West Virginia zones. Did keep an isolated thunder mention as well...but not real confident on this occurring. A surface wave in the lower Ohio River Valley will slide along this boundary through southern Ohio tonight. With this, lingered some showers in SE Ohio, but have everyone else dry. As the surface wave continues through eastern Ohio an into Pennsylvania, a stronger cold front will push through the forecast area from west to east. Ramp up POPs pretty quickly during the day on Thursday, with 100 POPs along and behind the front. For timing, have the front making it into NW CWA during the late morning, and crossing the Ohio River mid afternoon. With a decent amount of clouds around...CAPE should generally be held below 1000J/kg. But decent bulk shear -- 40-50kts, combined with the lift from the cold front and falling heights could lead to some storm organization with gusty outflow winds. Best chance of this will be Ohio River Valley counties. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... Models show this period to be a quick shot of below normal temperatures as a strong negatively tilted short wave continues to drive a strong cold front through our area Thursday night. We go from well above normal temperatures on Thursday ahead of the front to well below normal temperatures behind the front Friday. Look for highs in the 50s Friday after highs in the 80s in some areas Thursday. So,it will be blustery with rain behind the front Thursday night into Friday as the upper trough crosses. Canadian high pressure will build in from the west behind the exiting upper trough later Friday, with rain tapering off in the west. Some light showers will continue Friday night and early Saturday mostly in the northern mountains, compliments of northwest upslope flow. It will be cold enough for a changeover to snow showers in the higher elevations with little if any accumulation before the precip ends during Saturday. Otherwise, dry weather will cover the entire area by later Saturday, but cold with high temperatures in the 50s. Cold and dry Saturday night under high pressure. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Wednesday... High pressure shifts east Sunday with dry weather and a warming trend, with temperatures edging into the 60s. A very weak and dry front will cross Monday with little if any weather. Otherwise, the upper ridge and high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. again with dry weather and warmer weather Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM Wednesday... With less low level flow compared with last night, valley fog is likely to form, and IFR in fog is coded overnight for the Tygart Valley / EKN. Early morning MVFR stratocu may form and either prevent IFR fog or cause it to thin out early. Large cloud mass associated with a super cell thunderstorm approaching the middle Ohio Valley may also prohibit the fog formation. The thunderstorm itself, if it holds together, appears to be on a track to cross the Ohio River between HTS and PKB near 03Z tonight. Thursday will be another warm VFR day to start out, but showers are expected to arrive from the west late. Not yet coded, thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon. Light and variable surface flow overnight will become south on Thursday, as a front stalled over the area pushes north first thing Thursday morning. Light south to southwest flow aloft will become moderate by dawn Thursday and remain so throughout the day Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog in sheltered valley locations could vary overnight tonight depending on whether flow fully decouples, and on clouds. There is some uncertainty as to how long a large thunderstorm moving up the Ohio River will hold together this evening. Thunderstorms may also impact TAF sites Thursday afternoon and evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night...with low ceilings and some showers lingering into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.