Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300541 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 135 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SOUTHEAST...BRUSHES AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT THIS TIME PER LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY SE OHIO AND POINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ENDING FROM NW TO SE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN THE EASTERN MTS BY THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 00Z TUE AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES EAST. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST...TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE A DECENT BET IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH A CALM NIGHT. FURTHER EAST MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLVL STRATUS VERSUS FOG HOWEVER. UPPER RIDGE IS QUICKLY REPLACED TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STOUT CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SE-WARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ERIE REGION BY 00Z WED. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THE BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM ITSELF. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT BELOW A STOUT CAP AROUND THE 600MB-700MB RANGE. SAME CAP SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY VERTICAL GROWTH TO AROUND 16KFT-18KFT AND THUS...CONTINUED TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PER LATEST DATA MADE TO PREV FCST MINS/MAXES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LOWLANDS STILL LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA AT THE START OFF THE PERIOD MOVES AWAY TO THE E TUE NT INTO WED. HAVE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE N MOVING E TUE NT ALONG WEAK SFC FRONT. MODEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER AS LIGHT FLOW BENEATH THE CAP SUGGESTS WEAK UPDRAFTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LATE WED INTO THU NT FOR A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER...WITH COOLER AIR MOSTLY LOCKED UP IN CANADA DURING THIS TIME. THIS CHANGES AS FULL LATITUDE L/W TROUGH MOVES EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES WED AND THU AND EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER THE ERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM LEAD S/W TROUGH APPROACHES THU NT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THU NT. MODELS DIFFER ON ORIENTATION OF THIS FEATURE BUT ALL SUGGEST FORCING GETTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TUE NT AND MET STRAIGHT UP FOR HIGHS WED. LOWS WED AND THU NTS AND HIGHS WED WERE CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED BLENDS AND LOOKED GOOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... L/W TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY FRI AS LEAD SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH CROSSES JUST OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS DRIVEN BY MID STREAM S/W PIVOTING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRI...DRIVING THE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG FLOW...FORCING...LAST MINUTE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LATE DAY TIMING SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...ALTHOUGH A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE LEAD SRN STREAM S/W...WHICH BRINGS CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS EARLIER IN THE DAY. A HIGH OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY...BRINGING ABOUT A FAIR...COOL WEEKEND. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AND SFC FRONT CROSS MON...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND THEN EVEN COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLENDED IN GFS BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRI AND THEN MAINLY WPC FOR LOWS AND HIGHS BEYOND THAT...MOST CHANGES TO LOWER VALUES BUT NOT BY MUCH. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z. DRIER AIR IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CAUSE SOME FOG THERE...BUT OF SHORTER DURATION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT FORMING 14Z TO 17Z OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INTO UNI-PKB-CKB-KEN CORRIDOR 18Z TO 21Z...THEN LINGERING IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV 00Z TO 06Z. COULD NOT RULE OUT A MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM. AN ISOLATED CELL COULD REACH HTS-CRW CORRIDOR 22Z TUESDAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO BE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH 1 THSD FT BKN TO OVC POSSIBLE AND VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN HAZE. HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THAT ADVECTS IS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE...WITH 925 MB FLOW QUICKLY TURNING TO EAST BEFORE 06Z WEDNESDAY. THINKING MORE DIURNAL FOG WILL FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER/VALLEY FOG TIMING AND DENSITY MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF LOWER STRATUS CEILING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND PKB MAY BE FASTER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/30/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...50/26 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...KTB

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