Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211333 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 933 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front today. Cool high pressure then takes hold for the early and middle part of next week. Next cold front approaches next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 930 AM Sunday... There appears to be a weak surface wave over eastern Kentucky...and will hold the POPs over the western zones for a couple hours longer this morning. Did this also with the sky cover over that area. This has held up the eastward progression of the cold front slightly...but will expect it on the move again before 18Z. Previous Discussion... Cold front at 230 AM entering western Ohio...with dew points behind the front in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Cold front and upper trough will move into the area today...with showers and isold thunderstorms...mainly east of the Ohio River. Could be a period early this afternoon of enhanced precipitation mainly across the a vort max moves through the area...but overall...will see a gradual drying trend from west to east as the day progresses...and the frontal boundary pushes east. Much of the eastern half of the CWA will remain rather cloudy until at least early to mid afternoon...with SE ohio and eastern KY zones expected to gradually clear late this morning. Went with warmer temperatures in these areas as a result this afternoon. May still be some lingering cloud across the mountains later tonight...but most places looking at a clear sky as high pressure builds into the region. With the drier air mass progged to be across the area...low temperatures expected to dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s...much cooler than recent.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM Sunday... Models are in very good agreement for a very tranquil period. Behind the weekend cold front...high pressure over the Plains states will drive much drier and cooler air southward for Monday. Despite abundant sunshine...highs Monday will mostly be in the upper 70s. The high settles over the region Tuesday with continued abundant sunshine...but one more day of modification will drive temperatures up into the lower 80s for the most part. By Wednesday...the high center will be east of the area...and the combination of continued sunshine and southerly breezes will further boost the temperatures into the mid and upper 80s. Nights will also be initially quite the 50s Monday night...but rising to the mid and upper 60s by Wednesday night as low level moisture begins to return. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... A cold front will approach by Friday. Convection is expected over the warm sector Thursday due to diurnal heating and some forcing. Went closer to the GFS with the onset of PCPN starting Thursday with slight chance for showers and storms, and chance PoPs Friday and Saturday next week. Good chances for showers and storms along the cold front Friday. Followed WPC for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Sunday... Light to Moderate showers out ahead of an approaching cold front...will cause brief MVFR and IFR restrictions...along with local IFR/LIFR stratus. The cold front will move into southeast Ohio by 13-15Z...and east of the higher terrain after 21Z. After 15Z...isold thunderstorms possible...particularly across West Virginia and southwest Virginia. Gradual improvement to VFR from west to east generally after 16Z. After 21Z...generally expecting VFR everywhere...however...there remains a lot of uncertainty overnight in the development of fog...and the amount of clearing across the higher terrain and any resultant restrictions. For now...played mainly a MVFR fog scenario...with isold IFR conditions in deeper/sheltered valleys. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions with showers and thunderstorms could vary in timing and intensity. Development of fog tonight in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H M M M M H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M L M M L L M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M L H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H M H H M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Fog possible most mornings early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...SL/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.