Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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126 FXUS61 KRLX 181833 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 233 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through most of this week, with warm afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse Tuesday through Wednesday, with showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... Area remains in a col, virtually right up through the upper levels, between Jose churning off the eastern seaboard, and upper level troughiness over the western U.S. Dirty ridging generally prevails over the eastern U.S. Patchy cloud continues including afternoon cu, and mid and high cloud associated with weak upper level disturbances. The clouds have had little impact on valley fog, which will occur again overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. It may be impacted from clouds from the next upper level disturbance, however. Micro upper level ridging right over the mountains Tuesday, should break the afternoon shower routine there. However, a weak upper level disturbance producing showers and thunderstorms up and down the Mississippi River Valley today, may do the same into the middle Ohio valley Tuesday afternoon. Leaned on low side of guidance on lows tonight, especially in the valleys. Previous forecast was in line with converged guidance on highs Tuesday, another above normal day with a warm afternoon on tap. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday... A frontal boundary will stall just to our west on Tuesday. Its vicinity could bring some showers or storms to the area into Wednesday. Jose should remain east of the Atlantic coast, brushing the eastern seaboard per the latest NHC guidance. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge at H500 with weak pressure gradient should result once again in a near calm flow. A continuation of fair forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few diurnal showers still in the offing through mid week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday... By early Thursday, the frontal boundary lift north away from the area allowing high pressure to take control through the end of the week. Despite the high pressure, enough low level moisture and diurnal heating will combine to produce a few mountains showers each day. Also relied on blend for temperature forecast. Temperatures will run unseasonably warm for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 PM Monday... High confidence persistence fog forecast. Have IFR roughly 6-14Z PKB and EKN, 7-14Z HTS and CKB, 9-14Z CRW and none at BKW. The transition from VFR to IFR tonight will be quick, as will the improvement from IFR to VFR Tuesday morning. Otherwise any shower that pops up in the mountains this afternoon is not likely to significantly impact a terminal. A weak upper level disturbance will approach the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning. Clouds associated with it could impact the fog there late. A shower or thunderstorm from that system could get near the Ohio River by early Tuesday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog could vary an hour or so, possibly more at HTS if clouds increase from the west early enough Tuesday morning, and at CRW, depending upon when the Elk River fog gets deep enough to envelop the runway. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM

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