Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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528 FXUS61 KRLX 200731 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 231 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will pass later today, with some sprinkles or light rain possible. This will also usher in milder temperatures for the weekend. A strong cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1250 AM Saturday... Tricky temperatures again early this morning, as some areas have decoupled and cooled quickly, while others remain mixed. In general, have temperatures bottoming out in next couple hours before starting to warm with incoming clouds and continued SW flow. In a somewhat odd synoptic setup, our SW flow is actually producing some mid level cold advection with closed upper low near the Gulf Coast. So did not start warming higher elevations until after sunrise. Clouds should be on the increase today. Initially, expecting a layer of cirrus which is already spreading in from the west. But with the SW flow, the low to mid levels begin to saturate, with a stratus deck forming/moving in from the SW. As moisture continues to pump in, eventually we will see some drizzle/sprinkles/light rain as a warm front lifts through. Blended in ECMWF MOS for highs, which bumped up highs a degree or two across the south. The warm front departs to the north overnight, so cut back on POPs. However still lingered slight chance to chance across the north with GFS/ECMWF a bit slower than the NAM lifting the front through. Went with a non-diurnal temperature trend tonight, especially across the south after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 225 AM Saturday... Evolution and timing are relatively consistent with the cold front as it pushes into the middle Ohio Valley and exits the central Appalachians. Warm frontal showers will push northward of the region as the cyclone approaches with increasing low level flows. As mentioned in the previous overnight forecast, will see strong low level moisture transport, so will need to watch the potential for brief moderate to heavy rain. Overall amounts should not be all that high, but will need to watch the hydro aspect of this with ice jams still present on some of the area creeks, streams, and rivers. Temperatures ahead of the front should reach the 60s across the lowlands Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 225 AM Saturday... Extended forecast begins in the post frontal environment of the Pacific frontal system with a period of lingering low level moisture that will eventually yield snow showers in the higher elevation of the mountains. Next wave of high pressure builds in from the plains, progressive, and will bring return flow by the end of the long term with above normal temperatures once again.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1250 AM Saturday... Some cirrus starting to move in from the west. But expect the low levels to gradually saturate through today with MVFR stratus developing across much of the forecast area. Could also see some light drizzle or sprinkles late today into tonight as a warm front lifts through. May get some IFR in this stratus/drizzle tonight across the northern part of the forecast area. Flow will continue out of the S to SW through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing onset of MVFR cigs may vary. May need to add IFR in stratus/drizzle tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 01/20/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H L L H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Monday/Monday night with rain. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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