Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270552 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 152 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak disturbances aloft on backside of an upper level ridge. Slow moving convection with heavy downpours today and Saturday. Southeast flow may raise shower chance late Sunday into Monday mainly mountains.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Quite a bit of cloud cover has developed over the area in the past several hrs with even some isolated shra popping up along the I79 corridor. Tough to figure where the forcing is coming from but nonetheless...will keep isolated shra in the fcst for the remainder of the overnight. As for today...The upper ridge just off the SE coast tries to flex more of its muscle into the region. There appears to be a weak axis of lift/moisture on the w peripheral of said ridge which will try to push into the mountains later this aftn as the ridge flexes into the area. This in conjunction with some SE flow providing for some orographic enhancement...will mean for sct shra/tsra this aftn and early eve in the mountains. Not much change in pops inherited from the day shift with a solid 40 to 50 pop in the mountains with isolated mention outside of the mountains. The mountain convection will try to spill off westward into central WV during the early eve hrs. Hard to figure out just how much will survive but current thinking is best chance may lie over E KY...but confidence is too low to insert any higher than low chance. Being under the influence of the upper ridge means for a very light flow regime up thru a portion of the mid levels. As such initial convection over the mountains this aftn will stand up and struggle to maintain updrafts...essentially raining themselves out...meaning downpours are likely in any mountain convection. As for temps today...elected to go a few degrees below guidance outside of the mountains...mainly due to soil moisture from the wet month thus far. Light SE flow will try to counteract that a bit with compressional warming...but still think 88 to 90 will be tough to breach. Any eve shra/tsra over NE KY/SE OH this evening will quickly wane with another summer like night in store.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Summer pattern for the Memorial Day Weekend in deep layer south to southeast flow. Expecting late day mainly elevated heat source thunderstorms that may come out of the mountains in the evening, before dying overnight. Sunday finds a better surge of moisture in the south to southeast flow, with what is left of a possible sub-tropical system coming ashore along the Carolina coast. Thus have higher chance pops that persist overnight into Monday morning. With the light flow, persistent downpours are possible. Guidance came in a little lower especially southeast portion of the area on highs Sunday on account of the system arriving from the Carolinas. Otherwise no major changes to the temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Whatever is left of a system that moves through later in the short term moves out Monday, leaving very humid conditions in its wake, and a nearly anytime chance for showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise upper level ridging rebuilds for a dog day summer pattern through the middle of next week, with diurnally driven thunderstorms. An upper level low is progged to roll across southern Canada next week. It may get close enough to drive a cold front toward the area Day 7 night, so have chance pops Persisting next Thursday night. Trended temperatures, mainly highs, down a bit per national guidance in this dirty ridge pattern. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A weak mid level ripple has provided the spark for isolate shra over the mountains as of 06z. These will slowly track eastward over the next few hrs. Have kept KEKN/KBKW clean of any mention of shra for now given isolated nature. The cloud cover associated with this disturbance along with the high clouds trying to push in from the w...should any keep late river valley fog no worse than mvfr vsby. Scattered convection is possible this afternoon across the mountains...perhaps spilling into the lowlands this eve before waning. At this distance...have inserted a prob 30 group for KEKN/KBKW for this aftn. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form overnight...particularly if little clearing of cloud deck occurs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/27/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS hydrologist is working to correct this problem. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...30 HYDROLOGY...30

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