Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 191813 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 213 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND WILL CONTINTUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELESWHERE. USED CONCENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAD HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN. BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION EARLY ON. BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS. HIGHS A BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CU STARTING TO DISAPATE. VFR CIGS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROCHING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.