Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201416 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 916 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGS PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND. DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY THROUGH ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 915 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. BASED ON OBS IN SE OHIO ALSO ADDED SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOWING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE GET TOO THIN AT TIMES TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE IS BRIEFLY DEEP ENOUGH THIS MORNING IN NORTHEASTERN WV TO SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW...AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATE TONIGHT IN THE WEST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE WEST AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THERE...WILL GO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN NE KY AND WEST CENTRAL WV. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE E AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL REGIME FRIDAY. STILL...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE LOW SIDE...EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE QUITE THE TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE GIVEN THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PACKING DEVELOPING. SURFACE HIGH LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS PASSING BY. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE S LATE WITH LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/SE OH. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD VALLEYS. WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...CREATING FOR QUITE THE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT BY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SOME SUN...EXCEPT SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHRA OVER SE OH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT QUITE THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES PER WAA AND DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROF AMPLIFICATION. WITH THE FLOW INCREASING...KEPT LOWS UP EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AGAIN...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SHAPING UP FOR THE N MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF S STREAM SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO PHASE WITH N BRANCH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO TRACK WELL W OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF GOING NEGATIVE TILT. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT RACES NE THRU THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. BROUGHT POPS DOWN QUICKLY WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOKS TO CROSS 60F WITH WINDS STAYING UP IN THE POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT A BAD WX TREND LEADING UP TOWARD THANKSGIVING WITH NO MAJOR STORMS. BOARD RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING NE THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS STILL RISE SLIGHTLY OVER CWA. KEEPING MOST OF CWA DRY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE SOME 20 AND 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POPS ARRIVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWERING POPS SW TO NE BY LATE IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES DURING THE PREDAWN FOR MOST COUNTIES...AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. WILL HOLD POCAHONTAS COUNTY COLDER. AT THIS POINT...NO NEED FOR ANY ADDITIONS TO OUR EMPTY HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL. IF THE MOISTURE INCREASE TRENDS A FEW HOURS FASTER...THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE HIGHER FOR POCAHONTAS. CURRENTLY...ONLY HAVE A HOUR OR SO OF MENTIONING THAT POSSIBILITY. 500 MB TROF REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN ONLY SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING ON THANKSGIVING EVE. FROM THE WV DEER PERSPECTIVE...UNFORTUNATELY A MILDER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HUNTERS ON MONDAY. EVEN LOW TEMPERATURES FOR DAWN MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY A GRADUAL COOLING DOWN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD ENOUGH BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS THIS MORNING. EVEN SO...CEILINGS IN KY AND SOUTHERN WV AND VA SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MVFR LIGHT SNOW ALSO A POSSIBILITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...POSSIBLY CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS COULD VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...RPY

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