Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 012007 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 307 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD. THIS EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD FINALLY BE ERADICATED. THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END. USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE CONCERN. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6 TERMINALS. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM ADVECTION. THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK. THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW 3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE TABLE BELOW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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