Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151506 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1006 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front just south of our area lifts north as a warm front today. Cold front Tuesday night. Another possible system to end week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Sunday... The dry air has struggled to make inroads into southeast OH and northern WV this morning. Further south, low stratus, fog, and patchy drizzle has greeted folks. While the drizzle will taper off in the next few hours...the low clouds will persist through the remainder of the day. There is hope that northern areas can lift the bases a bit this afternoon, but this is looking less likely. Temps have moved little since last night with our far reaches into southeast OH seeing temps near the freezing mark. We will await the arrival of that pesky front late this afternoon and evening with increasing isentropic lift once again providing for a miserable night of light rain, fog, and low ceilings. As of 300 AM Sunday... A break from the steady rain this morning though rain chances begin to increase this afternoon as a short wave pulls a stationary front northwards. Clouds hang tight except in the north where brief partial clearing may occur. As front lifts north expect another round of steady rain tonight. Rainfall rates should not be high enough for flooding though repeated rainfall is adding to a wet period where rivers are running higher, so it will be something to keep an eye on in the coming week. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Lingered some slight chance to low chance POPs Monday morning, but trend should be drying out through the day. As a surface low lifts through the Missouri and Mississippi River valleys Monday night into Tuesday, a warm front should lift through with showers. This will be followed by a cold front Tuesday night. Did include thunder mention across the SE Tuesday evening as the front crosses, losing any thunder potential as it moves east Tuesday night. Have generally 0.5-0.75" of rain Tuesday in the showers ahead of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Unfortunately models have not resolved differences through the long term. Both ECMWF and GFS show similar features, but they are offset in both time and location lending very little confidence to forecast. Stuck fairly close to a consensus blend with some WPC guidance mixed in. Temperatures Wednesday should be near average following the cold front, but generally temperatures will run above normal through the long term period. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 03Z Sunday thru 00Z Monday... As of 630 AM Sunday... Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions. Breaks beginning to come in the north for MVFR. Some improvement today, but a trend back towards IFR this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving and subsequent deteriorating conditions thru the period may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H L L L L L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H L H L H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H M M L L H H L L M M L AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR possible Sunday night into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ/30 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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