Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 220605 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 105 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front crosses overnight and early Wednesday morning. High pressure Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week. Cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 105 AM Wednesday... Most of the second, and main band of precipitation associated with the front is actually right along and behind it. Fined tuned transition to snow based on temperatures aloft and, with upslope, have up to one half inch snowfall on the higher windward terrain, just about all of it in the 12Z-18Z period. As of 1125 PM Tuesday... Updated for slower timing on cold front crossing overnight and early Wednesday morning. Slowed last band of showers, temperature fall and transition to snow. As of 940 PM Tuesday... Line of showers has developed along frontogenesis zone over the coal fields and stretching into the Kanawha Valley. Also expecting development of showers over the southern mountains shortly. As of 1255 PM Tuesday... Winds will be gusty at times into this evening out ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. A weak northern stream short wave and associated surface cold front pushes through the area late tonight. Not a whole lot of moisture with the front, but we will see an in clouds and mostly northern areas will have a chance for a shower. Behind the front it is likely that we will see a brief transition to upslope snow showers in the mountains. Very little if any accumulation is expected through noon tomorrow as high pressure moves in fairly quickly behind the front and cuts things off. Much cooler tomorrow as high temperatures will run almost 20 degrees cooler than they were today.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Not much has changed in this period over the last 12 hours. As cooler and drier air push into the area from the west any remaining clouds will dissipate. Thursday and Friday will be cooler than normal with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Went with a blend of models for this period as another cold front approaches overnight Friday. Rain and snow showers are expected, especially in the northern portions of our area. Light snow accumulations are expected in the mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 105 AM Wednesday... A second band of showers popped up Tuesday evening, well out of the front, as a pre-frontal trough interacted with low level moisture being drawn up from the south. This pre-frontal trough brought a wind shift to northwest through the mountains as 06Z approached. Surface flow will go back to light southwest, until the front crosses overnight and early Wednesday morning. Surface winds will shift to light northwest behind the front, and ceilings will drop to MVFR. This is timed for 09Z along the Ohio River, 11Z at CRW and CKB, and 12Z in the mountains, where the northwest winds will become a bit gusty for a period Wednesday morning. The first band of showers will move out of the mountains by 09Z, with no associated restrictions except an MVFR ceiling at BKW at times overnight. The second band of showers will accompany and follow the front, with a brief changeover to snow before ending Wednesday morning, mainly in the mountains. The MVFR ceilings will break up by Wednesday afternoon, with high pressure bringing VFR the balance of the period. Moderate southwest flow aloft will become moderate west overnight, moderate northwest Wednesday morning, and then light north for Wednesday afternoon and night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu could vary into Wednesday afternoon. BKW and EKN ceilings could drop to near IFR overnight or early Wednesday morning. EKN could go MVFR or even briefly IFR on visibility in snow Wednesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L M H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M L H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M M M H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK/AB NEAR TERM...TRM/MPK/26 SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.