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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 160016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
815 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND STALLS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES
SOUTH. NEW FRONT APPROACHES NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOOKS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IS JUST AS
UNIMPRESSIVE...AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO REACH THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY OUTSIDE EITHER...WITH VIRTUALLY NO
CUMULUS FORMATION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS IN LINE WITH THIS...AND SHOW
A VERY DRY COLUMN THAT WILL NEED TO SATURATE WITH THE FRONT.

BLENDED THE NAM AND THE LOCAL MODELS FOR TIMING LATER
TODAY...WHICH WERE NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER. BRING
THE POPS TO LIKELY AROUND SUNSET...THEN TRAIL THEM OFF IN THE
OVERNIGHT WITHOUT GOING DRY. KEEP THE GENERAL DIURNAL TREND TO THE
POPS GOING INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE FORCING WILL BE AIDED BY VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. EXPECT THE SURFACE FIELD
TO BECOME MUDDLED HOWEVER...WITH THE FORMATION AND DISSOLVING OF
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. COLD FRONT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO DETECT THIS TIME THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD BE CUTTING THROUGH OUR
SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES.

THUNDER POTENTIAL UTILIZED THE GFS CAPE...AS NAM IS OVERDONE FROM
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. CAPPED THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AT CHANCE.
NO OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FROM SPC THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THIS
WEEKEND. MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD THEN LIFTS NORTH BY SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
THE DIRTY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SOME FORM OF EMBEDDED WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE
UPPER RIDGE....SOME INSTABILITY...AND MODEST QPF. PREFER TO FOCUS ON
THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS.

THIS SCENARIO ARGUES FOR INCLUSION OF AT LEAST SOME LOWER POPS WITH
THE MEANDERING FRONT FRIDAY...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIFTING FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GO WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL POP REGIME...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. IN ANY CASE...LOOKS TO BE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE AID OF HEATING. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE MODEL TRENDS OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM
CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOMING THE EASTERN ANCHOR OF
AN OMEGA BLOCK...WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AND HAVE THE BEST
POPS IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
DIMINISHING QUICKLY SINCE LAST UPDATE...HAVE BACKED OFF SHOWERS
THROUGH 3Z...WITH THE FRONT STILL POSITIONING OVER SE OH AND NRTHRN
WV OVERNIGHT INTO THURS...HAVE KEPT CHANCE PROPS FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM 3Z-12Z AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH...LATEST
ECMWF/RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF HTS/CRW
WITH LESS AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT HAVE KEPT CHNCE PROBS OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AFTER 16Z THURS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO REMAIN IN MVFR/VFR THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LOWERED FORECAST CONFIDENCE FROM HIGH TO MEDIUM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
OF AERIAL COVERGE WITH SHOWERS/TSTORMS


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG THE FRONT IN SHOWERS/TSTORMS
COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECASTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 05/16/13
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JM