Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221724 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 124 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low lingers above mid Atlantic states through Monday night. High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Monday into Tuesday. Warmer for mid and late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper low moving overhead today sliding down the eastern side of the Appalachians providing instability for some afternoon and early evening showers and tstorms. Precipitable water around 0.75 inch...so showers should not be very heavy. Showers on the retreat overnight but some chance remains overnight across the mountain counties closer to the upper level low. May see some patchy fog overnight with saturated lower atmosphere. Monday afternoon may see another round of showers, but think these will be even more widely scattered than this afternoons round as upper level forcing moves off to the east and CAPE minimizes. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short term forecast sees the slow filling of the closed upper low over the Carolina/mid Atlantic coastal area...and a slow drift and continued weakening into the Maritimes of Canada by mid week. This marks the beginning of high pressure gaining control of the CWA and finally eliminating chances for showers and thunderstorms that linger with the upper low to the east. There will be a trend of heights increasing...as the surface high begins its push off the east coast and takes its place as a Bermuda High...with ridging over the Appalachians heading into the extended forecast. Through mid week...this means a continued slow warming...and largely dry weather until moisture and instability increase into the end of the week. Overall grid changes are modest. Bring the pops a bit further west on Monday...and mostly cosmetic changes to the temperatures through the short term. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The dry weather we get on Tuesday will be short-lived as upper ridge breaks down and is replaced with zonal flow aloft. This pattern is looking very summer-like as we end up on the edge of the Bermuda High. Southwesterly flow will push warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the region...and dew points may approach 70F by the end of the work week. There will be a threat for showers and thunderstorms each day from mid week to the weekend in the moist airmass as we maximize daytime heating in the afternoon hours. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Vfr with a little potential for mvfr showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. High low level moisture overnight may lead to another round of fog early monday. Another round of showers monday afternoon, but more scattered in extent. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions may go to mvfr more often than progged. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JW

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