Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191921 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 221 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. A strong cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Friday... A ridge of high pressure remains in place with the center of high pressure over the north central Gulf coast providing dry weather to start the near-term. Brilliant sunshine and modest low- level warm air advection warms us nicely into the 40`s across lowland locations this afternoon. Decoupling tonight a little tougher than last night with SW flow picking up aloft, but still a decent bet in the most deeply incised, sheltered valleys. Models are still struggling to latch onto any one solution at this point. So have chose a middle-of-the-road approach favoring cooler temperatures in low spots. Tomorrow, moisture starts streaming in from the west/southwest providing some low-level clouds/stratus to start. Low-levels and eventually mid-levels saturate through the day, particularly across the northern zones. So, have decided to introduce drizzle Saturday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 AM Friday... Upper low moving west to east over the deep south will have lower level moisture caught in the southwest flow and will advect into the central Appalachians. Meanwhile, deepening cyclone over the central plains coming off the Rockies brings a warm front towards the area with overrunning producing scattered rain across the region. Frontal system will eject into the Mississippi valley with strengthening flows that will push the warm frontal precipitation to the north. Warm air advection, slowed slightly by the upper level low to the south, will get in gear in the long term prior to frontal passage. ALl in all, QPF with the overrunning will be very light, and temperatures by Sunday should still reach lowland 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 AM Thursday... Breezy conditions likely, sub advisory, as mild air continues to pump northward ahead of the cold front that should be a relatively quick mover through the area. Despite the strength of the cold front and the Pacific origin and strong 850mb moisture advection, no thunder is expected. POPs increase quickly after 18Z Monday, and the system quickly exits to the northeast. Flow aloft settles back into a zonal pattern for the back end of the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Friday... VFR conditions through today and tonight. Winds generally out of the SW at 5-10 kts with gusts in the teens possible this afternoon. Saturday morning, LLWS a distinct possibility across sheltered site of EKN and perhaps elsewhere with 2kft winds around 40kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low ceilings possible in southern, western TAF sites Saturday near the end of this TAF period. Currently few/sct clouds however there may be instances of bkn/ovc MVFR. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible Saturday night with fog and drizzle...and again Monday/Monday night with rain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MC NEAR TERM...MC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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