Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150556 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 156 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers/storms tapering off from west to east today. High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but unsettled pattern returns to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... Showers ongoing across central and eastern CWA as a series of 500mb ripples move through. There is also a weak surface wave currently across central KY which will drift eastward through the early morning. 00Z NAM and recent HRRR runs had a decent depiction of the current radar, so used a blend of those for the POPs through today. Also added mention of thunder across the coal field for the next couple hours. May need to extend/expand this based on current lightning trends. Do have lightning returning late this morning into this afternoon -- mainly across the mountainous counties. Otherwise, have POPs gradually tapering off from west to east through today as a surface high moves into the Great Lakes pushing the deeper moisture south and east. Despite lots of clouds around initially, temperatures will be very close to normal values for mid August. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 PM Monday... The short term period is characterized by weak high pressure with nearly zonal flow at the apex of a broad upper level ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS. A strengthening system up stream will enhance southwesterly flow bringing in higher temperatures and more abundant moisture through mid-week. Starting Wednesday night, numerous boundaries wrapping around the developing cyclone to our northwest are in play to act upon the available moisture to generate scattered showers and storms. Storms will increase through Thursday night as temperatures and heights aloft fall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 PM Monday... There is still disagreement regarding the evolution of the surface low and associated fronts culminating in some key differences amongst the primary long-term models. Per the WPC guidance, the forecast hedges toward the GFS more closely with a weaker, more northward-tracking low. The result is a cold front at our doorstep over Ohio/Indiana by Friday morning. This solution leaves plenty of time for the growth of afternoon instability - this warrants an eye on severe weather potential through the end of Friday with the passage of the cold front. Wind shear and lapse rates don`t appear to be overly impressive at this time, though a strengthening upper level jet may change this. After frontal passage, wrap-around mountain showers are expected until mean zonal flow and somewhat drier weather returns for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 AM Tuesday... Showers ongoing along east/south of the Ohio River. Some thunder in this as well. Expect varying conditions as showers move through, with some fog and/or low stratus forming between showers. Have low confidence on timing of these changes. Fog/stratus should gradually lift after sunrise, with some lingering showers/storms mainly across WV and SW VA. High pressure to our north tonight should equal fewer clouds, with dense river valley fog expected at typical locations after midnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and visibilities could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/15/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H L L L H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H L H H H H M H M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms this week. Dense river valley fog also possible each morning depending on clouds. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.