Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220242 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1042 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough keeps clouds showers and clouds around into Saturday. High pressure late Saturday into Sunday. Re-enforcing moisture-starved cold front Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1040 pm Friday... Forecast on track with slow overnight improvement from the west. As of 810 PM Friday... Forecast on track with moist, chilly air in place on back side of exiting low pressure system. As of 130 PM Friday... Upper level trough centered right over CWA early this afternoon, with showers across the east drifting north, and rain across west drifting southeast. This trough is starting to become more negatively tilted, and we are seeing some development of the rain across SE Ohio due to this. Expect an area of moderate rain drifting westward across the CWA into tonight. Generally thinking around 0.5 inch of additional rain with this. 850mb temps starting to crash as cold air arrives. This should keep clouds and some precipitation around through much of the night across the eastern half of the CWA. With 850mb temps dropping below 0C overnight, expect highest elevations to see a gradual switch over to snow instead of rain. Moisture is becoming pretty limited by this time, but think the highest ridges could get a dusting of snow accumulation...mainly on grass and elevated surfaces. The 850mb temperature trough maxes out from 12Z-15Z, after which any lingering precipitation in the mountains should end with just an isolated shower possible Saturday. Clouds will gradually break up from west to east through the day as surface high pressure begins nosing in from the west. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Friday... Broad upper ridge and surface high pressure dominate the region this period with dry weather. Temperatures will be on the rebound Sunday, after a chilly Saturday night, as the surface high pressure center slides east and allows southwesterly winds and abundant sunshine to boost temperatures well into the 60s Sunday. Sunday night will also see a warmup with southerly flow persisting. There may be a band of clouds Saturday night and early Sunday to herald in the warmer air. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... The upper ridge continues to dominate Monday into Wednesday with dry weather. There will be just enough northwest flow aloft to drive a moisture starved cool front southeastward across our area early Monday. However, cooling behind the front will be modest at best, with the net effect of bringing temperatures to near normal readings for this time of year for early next week. Thereafter, guidance is in pretty good agreement in bringing a frontal system into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday with rain chances increasing. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 810 PM Friday... As a low pressure system moves away from the area overnight and Saturday, a moist northwest flow of chilly air keeps clouds and rain in place overnight into Saturday. IFR ceilings will be common in the mountains while MVFR ceilings persist elsewhere. Holes in the lower clouds may allow VFR at times over the middle Ohio Valley. Visibility will be highly variable in showers but mostly VFR over the middle Ohio Valley. Drier air will filter into the area during the day on Saturday, with the help of daytime mixing and the approach of high pressure. Any visibility restrictions early on should be gone by late morning, earlier west. The stratocu deck will mix higher, getting above 3 kft for VFR conditions by Saturday afternoon. MVFR ceilings may persist through mid afternoon over the northern WV mountains and Tygart Valley. The clouds will start to scatter out later Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong northwest flow aloft will support gusty northwest surface winds through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in heavier showers and / or drizzle, especially in the mountains, overnight into early Saturday morning. While confidence is high in an improving trend during the day on Saturday, the timing may vary. Wind gusts will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. Missing. AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.