Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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619 FXUS61 KRLX 230709 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 309 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and east today and tonight. Upper level low brings chances of showers Wednesday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 115 AM Tuesday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 725 PM Monday... No significant changes necessary. Previous forecast on track. As of 205 PM Monday... No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon. Did introduce slightly more cloud cover in the sky grids to account for lingering clouds and streaming cirrus. Otherwise, forecast is on track. As of 1050 AM Monday... Radar still showing some lingering showers in the mountains with other locations rain free. Visible satellite imagery highlights clearing north of the Ohio River. Expect rain to taper off in the next few hours and clearing to slowly overspread the area as a surface high slowly slides northeast across Ohio. Until the pressure gradient relaxes more, could see occasional gusts on the order of 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of an upper trof to our west. While there are questions as to how far the moisture will reach, will carry PoPs south of the Ohio River with the best chance of showers in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Models have remained fairly consistent with deep upper trough/low impacting our region Wednesday into Thursday. GEFS indicating an anomalous jet max for this time of year at 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal. We will be in a good spot in the left front quad of this jet max as it pushes north around the trough. Current blend of forecast guidance is spitting out about a 1 inch bullseye of QPF over Central through Eastern West Virginia, with Euro a bit further west than the GFS at this time. PWATs aren`t overly impressive and low CAPE values as well based on forecast soundings, so thunderstorm and flood threat will be minimal . However, with upper trough swinging in and cold temps aloft, I do believe there will be some embedded thunderstorms within a wide band of showers Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. The upper level low will remain over the area on Thursday and more showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Temps will be quite a bit cooler as well, with highs only mid 60s in the Lowlands and 50s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Upper trough kicks to our east and a zonal pattern is left in its wake. Guidance in fairly decent agreement with a brief dry period on Friday as weak ridge pushes in. However, the weekend is looking quite unsettled at this time. Strong warm air and moisture advection with H850 showing southwesterly return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Should definitely have the instability in place this weekend, but timing of short waves moving through the flow will determine severe weather potential. Confidence remains quite low at this time due to some differences within the guidance, so have stuck with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance for this period and have mentioned the chance for thunder in the forecast simply because of instability that is likely to be in place. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 725 PM Monday... Radar and satellite images show no rainfall activity over the region. VFR conditions have been reported at all sites. However, visibilities at CRW has dropped from 10 to 8 miles, and down to 6 miles at EKN. These features could indicate that fog is forming along these river basins and perhaps become MVFR/IFR later overnight. Plenty of clouds will prevent fog from forming at many places. Only the protected valleys could experience fog this morning. High resolution and synoptic models suggest a series of shortwaves will lift north across eastern KY and southern WV to produce showers mainly western slopes and eastern mountains during the afternoon hours. These showers could produce brief periods of IFR under heavy rain. Otherwise, expect MVFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low particularly concerning fog potential tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and density of fog may vary overnight. Timing on lower cigs and SHRA may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Increasing chance of MVFR to IFR in SHRA through mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...SL/DTC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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