Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270609 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 149 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM THIS MORNING/... MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS INDIANA. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER TIMING. && .SHORT TERM /4 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS. WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY... UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED WITH ENOUGH WIND FLOW...EVEN WHERE IT RAINS. ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS. AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/27/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JMV HYDROLOGY...JMV

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