Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 080609 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 109 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure dissipates overnight. A cold front crosses early Thursday morning, followed by much colder weather through Saturday. Next system crosses Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1 AM Thursday... Forecast on track. Altocu deck interrupting radiative cooling process. As of 655 PM Wednesday... No major changes except an increase in the sky cover to the northwestern zones and some minor adjustments to the overnight lows. As of 219 PM Wednesday... A weaK high pressure will continue to provide dry and clear conditions tonight. Satellite images show widespread clearing over the region, and mid to upper clouds far away upstream. These clouds could reach southeast OH by Thursday morning. Clear skies, decoupled atmosphere and boundary layer winds at 5 to 10 knots, expect radiational cooling dropping temperatures into the low 30s. This could produce frost instead of fog. Low level ceilings could develop during the predawn hours early Thursday morning. These clouds should dissipate by mid morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM Wednesday... Good CAA commences Thursday night with H85 temps lowering into the -12 to -14C range. This combined with orographic contributions should be able to squeeze out some mountain snow showers and flurries elsewhere despite rather meager moisture depth. This should continue for Friday as well though any lakes contribution should stay north of the area. Only expecting some minor accumulations in the mountains and perhaps a dusting here or there in the lowlands. Still having to increase cloud cover from what the Blender provided as well as lowering highs a smidgen. A gusty WNW wind will bring some low wind chills especially in the mountains. Snow showers and flurries will wane Friday night but clouds should linger. Clouds will gradually erode from SW to NE Saturday due to low level WAA. It will still remain chilly with little if any mixing from aloft to significantly boost temps. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM Wednesday... There exists considerable spread regarding how amplified the Sunday/Monday s/w trof is as it ejects out of the Plains. The Euro is much more amplified with a deepening surface low track into the upper Midwest versus GFS. Stuck close to the Forecast Builder which is a middle road solution. With the lingering cold air, suspect the very front end of this system will have a short lived wintry aspect. But all of these fine details will ultimately depend on track and amplitude. In the wake of this system, a broad upper trof will settle in across the easter half of the nature with subsequent cold shots slated just beyond the range of the extended. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 100 AM Thursday... A cold front crosses the area in a subtle manner early Thursday morning. No precipitation is expected as the front crosses, and ceilings will not get lower than 6-8 kft. Winds will gradually increase from the west during the day Thursday, and gradually become gusty during the afternoon, while a stratocu deck around 4 kft gradually overspreads the area from northwest to southeast Thursday afternoon. Gusty west to northwest upslope flow will continue Thursday night. MVFR stratocu will push into the middle Ohio Valley and then across northern WV, and snow showers may begin in the northern WV mountains overnight. Light west to southwest flow aloft overnight Willi become moderate west to northwest Thursday morning, and remain so through Thursday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. Timing and height of MVFR stratocu may vary Thursday night. Gusty winds may vary Thursday afternoon and night, including being stronger than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/08/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in snow showers overnight Thursday night into Friday in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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