Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 031026 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 626 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TODAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTUAL FRONT CROSSES THE OH RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. SO...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THURSDAY TO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. USED THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CEILING TO LIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SOME AREAS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE CLOUDS TONIGHT IT WILL THEN BE LIKELY FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS AS STRATUS DECK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT IS GOING FAR TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MPK

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