Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220552 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 152 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture to bring heavy showers and thunderstorms to end the work week. Cooler to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Thursday... Kept the low pops in across far north with isolated showers through dawn in close proximity to a warm front. This boundary will retreat off to the north later this morning. Attention quickly turns to what will be the remnants of Cindy. Models continue to be in good agreement on a piece of energy breaking off from the circulation and advancing northeast into the area late afternoon. There may be a few storms in advance of the main area of rain. Despite the surge in pwats, this feature will be progressive this evening, such that flooding concerns are low tonight. QPF amounts of .50 to .75 inches will be common. Tried to show a break late tonight across much of the area, before the next slug of moisture works in from the west at dawn, affecting mainly southeast Ohio, northeast KY, and western WV. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... Attention remains focused on interaction of a cold front approaching from the NW and the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Cindy which will be approaching from the SW. Unfortunately, models continue to differ quite a bit on location and amount of the heaviest rain, but confidence continues to increase in a prolonged heavy rainfall event Thursday night through Friday night. The first slug of tropical moisture crossing the forecast area from SW to NE Thursday night. Have an enhanced area of POPs reflecting this trend -- lifting through the CWA Thursday night along with a half to three quarters of an inch of rain. Even with this first slug models are painting different pictures on where the heaviest rainfall will occur. The ECMWF hits NW CWA hard with close to 2 inches, while the GFS, Canadian and NAM are more broad with a half to one inch across the bulk of the CWA. Trended toward this consensus with the POPs and QPF Thursday night into early Friday. By mid morning Friday, the initial slug of moisture should be departing to the north. The cold front should be crossing NW Ohio and Central Indiana, and the remnants of Cindy will be crossing Arkansas. This should give a brief lull -- at least in heavy rain potential -- for Friday morning. However with the complexity and uncertainty of the situation did not get too cute with POPs and have maintained high chance to likely POPs. Have POPs increasing through the day Friday as the cold front gets closer. The GFS and NAM show the front holding up some as the Cindy remnants move through TN/KY late in the day and across the southern coal fields of WV overnight. The ECMWF keeps the front moving and shunts Cindy 50-100 miles farther south. While this doesn`t seem like a significant amount, the difference between in QPF between the NAM/GFS vs the ECMWF are large. The NAM has a run total precip max of 5+ inches across the Coal Fields, and the GFS has a 4-5 inch max from the Tri-State to the northern mountains. The ECMWF on the other hand is a broad one to two inches across the CWA through Saturday morning. And just to add some more numbers to the mix, the Canadian is showing a general 2-3 inches across the CWA. Opted to stay with the ongoing forecast of a broad, basin wide 2-4 inches across the CWA from late Thursday into Saturday morning...but confidence remains on the low side. The main heavy rain/flood threat still looks to be mainly late Friday and especially Friday night as the cold front/remnants move through. Cannot rule out some issues Thursday night into Friday, depending on how efficient the initial slug showers and storms are. The cold front should be progressive by Saturday, exiting early to mid morning with drier air arriving Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... A secondary front and the broad upper trough should move through during the first half of next week. Have some slight chance to chance POPs with this, with only limited moisture. Temperatures will be running below normal during this time frame. High pressure should settle in by mid week with dry weather to round out the extended. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z Thursday through 06Z Friday... As of 150 AM Thursday... There is the possibility of patchy river valley fog during the predawn across northern sites which received a little rainfall this past evening. However, no widespread fog formation is expected due to cirrus and patches of mid deck. Clouds will increase and lower on Thursday, but generally remain VFR. An upper disturbance will move north through the area late this afternoon and evening, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing. Brief periods of IFR vsby is possible as this works thru, with an overall lowering of cigs into MVFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PKB/CKB/EKN may experience IFR or worse in fog should clouds dissipate more. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 06/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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