Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220738 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 338 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT MOVES OFFSHORE MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST...ONLY TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING BENEATH POST FRONTAL INVERSION IN WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW. MODELS DO NOT PICK UP ON ANY OF THE RAIN DOTTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO REFLECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS TODAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W. MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BENEATH THE INVERSION BEFORE DRYING OUT ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING A CLEAR...CALM NT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VALLEY FOG...ALONG WITH PATCHY FROST IN THE BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. HIGHS ARE BELOW GUIDANCE IN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN BENEATH THE CLOUDS AND FRONTAL INVERSION TODAY...AND LOWS BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET AND LOWER MAV TONIGHT. THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED BUT DID USE THE MET TO LOWER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY A BIT TONIGHT WHILE MAKING CERTAIN NOT TO RAISE LOWS ANYWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CLEAR SKY...COOL NIGHTS...AND WARM DAYS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SEEP IN ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST...BUT AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD. SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S IN THE LOW LANDS. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... DRIER AIR TAKING FIRM CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ROLLED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THIS AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL PRECLUDE FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT A STRATOCU DECK FORMING AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH FRONTAL INVERSION WILL LOWER TO MVFR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST...ALREADY HAVING DONE SO AT PKB. CIGS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE TOP END OF IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK MON. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AFTER DAYBREAK MON...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE INTO MON AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NT WILL BRING CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR FOG FORMING IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY 06Z TUE. LIGHT NW SFC FLOW THROUGH MON WILL BECOME CALM MON NT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH MON AND BECOME LIGHT N MON NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MON MAY VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING BORDERLINE IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 09/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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