Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221437 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1037 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front approaches middle to end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1035 AM Friday... Forecast on track, as the fog slowly thins out, and cirrus from the remnants of Jose also thins out, as it spread southwestward across the forecast area. As of 620 AM Friday... Thin high clouds drifting southwestward into WV will do little to change the forecast. As of 255 AM Friday... Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft dominates our weather today and tonight. Stagnant low level moisture under mostly clear skies and near calm winds will bring our early morning dense valley fog. This will mix out with a bit drier air aloft by mid morning as heating gets under way. The final result will be a mostly sunny and warm day, with light winds and highs well in the 80s. Does not look to be enough dry air aloft to significantly lower relative humidities this afternoon with the mixing, with minimum afternoon relative humidities in the 40s. Tonight looks to be a repeat of last night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Friday... Significant wx nil through the short term with deep upper trough anchored over the Great Basin and downstream elongated ridge oriented northeast to southwest. 850mb temps in the 18C vicinity keep well above normal temperatures going through the weekend and into early next week before heights start to gradually lower. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... Upper ridge begins to break down and we will lose the barotropic atmosphere that has dominated for the better part of a week. Expecting a cold front to work its way through the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, driven by the digging upper trough over the Great Lakes for the day 7 time frame. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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12Z Friday thru 12Z Saturday... As of 625 AM Friday... High pressure dominating through Friday night spells mostly VFR conditions; outside of LIFR river and valley fog 08Z to 14Z both early Friday and Saturday mornings, affecting all the major TAF sites. Afternoon SCT stratocu. Winds will be near calm overnight and light northeast by later Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early Friday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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