Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230833 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 333 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Unseasonably warm today and Friday. A strong cold front crosses pre-dawn Saturday morning, followed by cooler weather for the weekend. A couple systems next week with precipitation chances.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Thursday... In the warm sector today with areas of morning fog. Column humidities still have maxima meaning clouds should linger through a good portion of the day. May even see a scattered sprinkle or shower. A little instability this afternoon may result in some cumulus build up, but largely should avoid any thunder. Clouds on the decrease tonight as drier air moves overhead as the warm front moves well to the north. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 310 AM Thursday... Main weather maker for the short term is a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday. Ahead of this front, expecting good WAA, with even little downsloping component by mid afternoon as winds turn SSE. MAV and MET running above most other guidance, but with the extra help of the downsloping opted to trend this way as well. Have decent chance to break at least daily records...and possibly even some month of February records. Still some timing differences between models, with ECMWF and GFS fairly close with front crossing CWA from 06Z-12Z Saturday. NAM is about 3 hours slower. All models show the bulk of the precip occurring along and behind the front, so kept a dry forecast Friday, with POPs ramping up quickly around midnight. Around 500-700 j/kg CAPE with this system -- which is decent for overnight hours in February. And with the dynamic lift from the cold front, expecting thunderstorms overnight. Good shear expected during the same time frame. NAM showing 40kts bulk shear near the highest instability axis, but increasing to 60+kts just behind the best instability. This combination should be enough to create some threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. Best chance of strong to severe storms will be across the mid Ohio River Valley, as convection moves in from the west...with a weakening trend as things move east across WV. Precipitation gradually tapers off Saturday and Saturday night. Cold enough air filtering in by late Saturday to see some snow flakes mixing in before precip ends. Brief high pressure expected Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 320 AM Thursday... High pressure will be drifting away to the east Sunday night with attention turning to a potential southern stream system for Monday. ECMWF not very excited about this, but the GFS brings a surface wave up the Ohio River Valley. Opted for chance POPs with this, hoping for better model consistency as we get closer. A surface low comes out of the Rockies midweek, bringing another chance of precip. Have likely POPs on Wednesday as a cold front moves through.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Thursday... Could not state the forecast any better than the previous shift, so here it is: A low confidence aviation forecast tonight given the battle waging between stratus and fog formation. I feel fairly confident on CIGS improving as the evening progresses given the low level flow turning more southwesterly. Given the amount of low level moisture in place combined with low dewpoint depressions and a wet ground...any place could fog pretty quickly this evening if there are any substantial breaks in the clouds. I`ve allowed for some IFR vsby in fog to develop where some breaks in the clouds are more likely to occur, from HTS- CRW-EKN. Some weakly forced showers may develop toward morning along and west of the Ohio River which will bring CIGS down once again into MVFR and possibly IFR across southeast Ohio through 15Z. These showers will tend to lift northeast as the day progresses, however, chances are too small to include in TAFs attm. Otherwise expect some 3 to 4 thousand foot stratocu across the area through the afternoon. Surface flow will be light south beneath light to moderate southwest aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low tonight. Medium for Thursday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense fog may be more prevalent should clouds break more than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 02/23/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M L M M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M L M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L M M M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M L L M H H M M M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JW

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