Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241726 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 126 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION INTO AN INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALSO BE PUMPED NORTHWARD AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO SHIFTS EAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH NO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION...POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM CHANCE IN THE WEST TO DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE...AND IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST...AS MOISTURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM BEING MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MORE HUMID. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT... INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KTS MONDAY. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING MEMORIAL DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THAT AREA...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING...CIGS AOA 4000 FEET. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. .AFTER 06Z MONDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...JMV

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