Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 152331 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 704 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MILDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...A RELATIVELY NICE MID APRIL PERIOD. 925 MB FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD MAIN A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED INVERSION IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. EXPOSED RIDGES WILL BE MILDER. STILL HAVE THOSE SHELTERED AREAS NEAR FREEZING. SINCE THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL...AND TO AVOID THE DOUBLE HEADLINE WITH THE CURRENT FREEZING WARNING FOR DAWN WEDNESDAY...WILL NOT POST ANY FREEZE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM AND CMC BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE PULLING MOISTURE NNE UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. CONSENSUS WAS TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE...AND KEEP FORECAST TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME 20/30 POPS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY STILL TRICKY...MAY COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH CIRRUS WE HAVE. SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...YET 850 MB TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE 5C. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...LASTING LONGEST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. AFTER THE CLOUDS CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. TIMING OF STRATUS DECK CLEARING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...21/KTB/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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