Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220743 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 343 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AROUND VIRGINIA AND SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. AS THE LOW MEANDERS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL BE COOL AND CLOUDY. POPS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DON/T SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING FROZEN WERE TO FALL IT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PREV DISCN... NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS. WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CAUSE MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AFTER 19Z. KCKB...KEKN...KBKW WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH TODAY. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER. MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED AFTERNOON. CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE WED. SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO MODERATE N. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE IT CLEARS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...FB

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