Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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719 FXUS61 KRLX 240407 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1207 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak, moisture-starved cold front crosses during the early morning, with gusty winds in the mountains and possibly an isolated shower. High pressure mid week. An organized system crosses late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1200 AM Update...Just updated sky to reflect current METSAT. As of 900 PM Sunday... Still anticipating a weak cold front to cross during the overnight and early morning hours as low pressure ejects from the Great Lakes eastward toward the Atlantic. It doesn`t appear there will be much moisture to work with, but perhaps enough to squeeze out a shower or two in the northern mountains, mainly during the morning hours. Cloud cover will also increase near and either side of the frontal boundary in the northern counties and near the mountains. The latest hi-res guidance has H85 flow increasing to 50+ kts ahead of the approaching front. While isolated locations above 4 kft may see gusty winds in excess of 40 kts, most areas are expected to stay below Wind Advisory criteria tonight into tomorrow morning. Continued mixing in the absence of BL decoupling will keep min temps warmer than last night for most locations. Additionally, afternoon temps should stay a couple degrees cooler than what we saw Sunday. The front and associated cloud cover exit by evening with high pressure moving in. Used a blend of model guidance to tweak previous forecast temps, PoPs, and sky grids through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday... High pressure builds overhead Monday night and will make for a clear and chilly night with frost possible across the forecast area. It is possible we could even see some freezing fog in some of the sheltered mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... An upper trough drives a cold front through the region Thursday. Models coming into agreement on QPF amounts with generally a half an inch or less expected. By the time most of the QPF has exited to the east, the ECMWF drops a colder air mass into the area which could spark some snow showers in the mountains. Flow becomes more zonal and brings impulses that will maintain an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1200 AM Update...There is Low Level Wind Shear conditions likely at all sites. An AIRMET has been issued and covers nearly all of West Virginia and into the Ohio Valley. Conditions look to ease by daybreak as a cold front pushes through. As of 900 PM Sunday... VFR conditions prevail through much of tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. As the front approaches during the morning hours Monday, MVFR ceilings are possible across northern terminals. Additionally, an isolated shower or two could reduce visibility at EKN. Winds will also increase ahead of the front with the strongest flow expected across the mountains. Isolated ridge tops could see periods of 40+ kt gusts, although terminals should only see max gusts in the 20-30 kt range. The boundary layer shouldn`t decouple overnight, so LLWS isn`t expected to be an issue. However, if some sheltered valleys do manage to go calm at the surface, LLWS would be possible. Winds will shift to the west then northwest as the front passes. Cloud cover and winds will keep fog at bay tonight. By tomorrow night, however, predominantly clear skies and decreasing winds could allow valley fog to develop. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level wind shear possible overnight. Could get a shower at EKN early Monday...lower chance at CKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/DTC NEAR TERM...MPK/DTC SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK/DTC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.