Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 180310 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1010 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front lifts north today. Gradual warming over weekend with building heights. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1005 PM Friday... A little trickiness going on with the temperatures this evening as decoupling has not yet taken place. A couple of the ASOS sites look like they had decoupled, and then the surface flow returned resulting in either holding temperatures or temperatures that rose slightly. At the office, this occurred, and resulted in a 5 degree jump back up in the 9pm hour from 52 to 57 degrees. Still expect the temperatures to drop tonight under the eventual calm conditions. As of 100 PM Friday... A ridge of high pressure extends from the sfc up to H500, will maintain dry weather conditions through the period. With mostly clear skies, expect radiational cooling at night, and diurnal heating in the afternoon, for a cool night and mild afternoon Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 258 PM Friday... A weak system will cross Saturday night with scattered showers in an otherwise quiet but increasingly anomalously warm pattern. 70 degrees is becoming quite probable for Monday for many southern zones. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM Friday... The very warm pattern continues for much of next week, with just a brief interruption on Wednesday with a weak cool front. This prolonged stretch of warmth will allow for an early start to budding and blooming of some varieties trees/vegetation. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 615 PM Friday... VFR through the forecast period under the influence of high pressure. Winds less than 10kts through the period. Ceilings come into play around 10kft Saturday with the approach of an upper level wave from the west southwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 02/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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