Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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491 FXUS61 KRLX 231916 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 316 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Increasingly warmer and more humid air as the week progresses...before the next cold front approaches later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM Tuesday... Flat cu field centered over the high terrain will dissipate this evening for a mostly clear sky areawide. Suspect some patchy dense river valley fog will form once again tonight...though the low level flow increases out of the SE near 20 kts late helping to keep it in check some. It will still be a comfy night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. A warm frontal boundary will cross on Wednesday with an increase in cloud cover as well as humidity. Kept the idea of isolated shra mainly over SE OH/NE KY and the mountains. Instability appears to be lacking a bit but still cannot rule out an afternoon tsra. Highs tomorrow look to top out in the mid 80s with 70s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 335 PM Tuesday... High pressure firmly in place for the majority of the forecast period though with increasingly warm days, the chances for showers and thunderstorms increase especially in the afternoons. Upper level disturbances migrate through the region, but only act to increase the potential for showers mainly in the north.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 335 PM Tuesday... Stubborn high pressure continues through early next week though decaying fronts do erode in the regions general vcnty. One thing to keep an eye on is a developing tropical system that is currently progged to move through the Gulf of Mexico during the middle part of next week and may eventually provide a break to our dry pattern. For now, have only slightly bumped PoPs in the extended though with very little confidence.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 145 PM Tuesday... 18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday... VFR conditions thru 00z with light flow. Flat sct to bkn cu field over the mountains will dissipated this evening. Patchy MVFR/IFR fog after 06z...affecting KPKB/KEKN/KCRW. Any fog will dissipate by 13z for a return to VFR conditions areawide. A warm front will cross during the day with just an isolated threat for a shra or tsra...though a bkn 4 to 6 thsd foot deck is envisioned for most. Light S surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on fog. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Dense morning valley fog possible through mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...30

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