Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210851 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 451 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper disturbance passes Tonight. High pressure Wednesday night and Thursday. Warm front Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 AM Tuesday... Overall, drier weather expected in the near term period than as of late. Still have area of showers pushing east through the CWA this morning, but once it goes through, looking at a mostly dry period, but with plenty of cloud cover hanging around for much of the day. May see some breaks across the north later today, but clouds will increase again later this evening and tonight, as an upper disturbance moves through the region. Elected to make no changes to the previous max t forecast, which is several degrees lower than current guidance, due to expected cloud cover today. As mentioned, a weak wave will move across the area late tonight. There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to whether much if any precipitation will be realized, but elected to keep a slight chance across the mountains and central/southern zones late tonight. Otherwise, much of the area should remain dry overnight, with a stronger wave of low pressure and its associated moisture tonight looking to remain to the south of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 450 AM Tuesday... A large high pressure system slides by to the northeast of the forecast area, making it from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to a position from off the middle Atlantic coast, ridging back into the southeastern states, Friday morning. Of arctic origin, while this high will bring a hard freeze Thursday morning, dew points will be much more conserved than temperatures, and Thursday afternoon in particular will bring very low humidity. A wave passing by to the southwest of the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday will bring mid and high cloud across roughly the better southwest half of the forcast area, but precipitation should stay to the southwest. Warm advection showers may affect roughly the northern half of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday, with the slight chance for some sort of wintry mix briefly across the northern mountains early Friday morning, if precipitation arrives before temperatures can climb high enough for rain. The area will reside in a southerly flow of increasingly warm and moist air Friday afternoon through Friday night, as high pressure drifts off the southeast coast. Temperatures close to central guidance with no major changes from previous. Preserved the idea of temperatures climbing toward dawn Friday in warm advection. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 450 AM Tuesday... This is increasingly looking to be an unsettled period. After a warm Saturday, low pressure drags a cold front into the area from the west Saturday afternoon and night. This is likely to push thunderstorms into the area during this time, before the front slows down. It gets left behind as a wavy west to east boundary across the area into early next week, with waves of low pressure riding east along it. Temperatures close to central guidance. While Saturday will be the warmest day, temperatures will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Still an area of moderate showers and isold -tsra across southern Ohio and central WV, creating brief MVFR/IFR conditions. These will largely move east of the higher terrain by 09Z, with just areas of -shra lingering across the mountains through 16-18Z, with areas of mvfr conditions. Otherwise, gradual improvement to VFR expected, particularly across lowland locations after 18Z. Mountains may hold onto MVFR for much of the day. Light surface winds during the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and extent of IFR conditions tonight and Tuesday morning uncertain. Also, timing of improvement to VFR conditions uncertain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H L L M BKW CONSISTENCY M L L M M H H H H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L H H M L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M H H H M L L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.