Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181037 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 637 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure through most of this week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights. Weak upper level impulse mid week with some showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 640 AM Monday... Mainly quiet weather is expected today and tonight with weak high pressure remaining in the region. Highs this afternoon should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday. Have isolated to scattered showers across the mountainous counties of WV this afternoon and evening. Moisture is on the shallow side, but we had some showers POP up Sunday afternoon/evening so do not see a reason why today will be much different. Fairly strong cap in place just above the layer of best moisture, so did not include any thunder mention. For tonight, expect similar conditions to the past few nights with cool temperatures and dense valley fog. As an upper level ripple approaches from the west, do have a bit more cloud cover across the Tri-state area, so fog may not be quite as widespread of dense there.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday... A frontal boundary will stall just to our west on Tuesday. Its vicinity could bring some showers or storms to the area into Wednesday. Jose should remain east of the Atlantic coast, brushing the eastern seaboard per the latest NHC guidance. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge at H500 with weak pressure gradient should result once again in a near calm flow. A continuation of fair forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few diurnal showers still in the offing through mid week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday... By early Thursday, the frontal boundary lift north away from the area allowing high pressure to take control through the end of the week. Despite the high pressure, enough low level moisture and diurnal heating will combine to produce a few mountains showers each day. Also relied on blend for temperature forecast. Temperatures will run unseasonably warm for this time of year. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 640 AM Monday... Fog should dissipate this morning by around 14Z with VFR expected for the remainder of the day. Did include VCSH at BKW for isolated showers across WV mountainous counties. Expect fog formation again tonight, although maybe not as dense across the Tri-state as cirrus stream in ahead of weak system. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR in valley fog possible each morning this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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