Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210818 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 415 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK SLUGGISH FLOW INTO TUESDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASES WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT STILL TIMED TO PASS ON THURSDAY. DRIER ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KRLX RADAR AT 07Z DEPICTING A SHOWER OR TWO STILL HANGING ON OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS THIS MORNING...WITH ALL SHOWERS HAVING ENDED ELSEWHERE. FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS HAS FORMED AS EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING ON FURTHER EAST. STILL EXPECT THESE FEW SHOWERS TO FIZZLE OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ROUGHLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO PREV FCST. PROGGED 925MB/850MB TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT GENERAL UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH PERHAPS A LOCATION OR TWO REACHING THE 90F MARK. KEPT INHERITED LOW/MID CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE THE BEST COMBO OF LLVL MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO RESIDE ON SOUTHEAST BL FLOW. WITH 0-6K SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5KTS AND UNDER...WILL BE HARD FOR ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE IT VERY FAR NORTHWEST. FOR THE LOWLANDS...TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NO FRONT OR EVIDENT BL CONVECTIVE TRIGGER. HOWEVER...PWATS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 1.35IN-1.40IN AREA-WIDE. MODEL POINT SOUNDING OVER SE OHIO DO SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERCOMING AFOREMENTIONED CAP WITH ENOUGH SFC HEATING. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...EVEN THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOWLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ANY PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY THE 01Z-02Z TUE TIME FRAME WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ON THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE EARLY/MID OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...WHICH PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. ELSEWHERE...FOG/LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE A DECENT POSSIBILITY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES WARMER VERSUS THIS MORNING/S READINGS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM TODAY...CONTINUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 700 MB FLOW STILL 5 TO 10 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY. THE WET GROUND MAY HINDER SOME 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. YET...WHAT WIND THERE IS...MAY BE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES. BEFORE WE START LOOKING WEST WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WE NEED TO LOOK SOUTH...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE WEAK 500 MB CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. 00Z GFS WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK N AND NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. DID NOT JUMP ON THAT SOLUTION YET. YET...DID INCREASE POPS AND CLOUDS A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LINGER SOME 30 TO 20 POPS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY...TRIED TO HOLD THE WESTERN LOWLANDS NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...00Z NAM WAS THE FASTEST WITH FIRST ROUNDS OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...ITS MOS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A GOOD BIT LOWER. DID NOT GO THAT FAST. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 20 TO 21Z WEDNESDAY...SPREADING SE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AGREE WITH SPC AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IN TERMS OF SEVERITY OF STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT FOR DAY 3. YET...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. STEERING FLOW INCREASING TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS ON NAM...GFS WEAKER IN MID LEVELS. WE STILL HAVE NO HAZARD IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE SURFACE FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 00Z NAM WAS AGAIN THE FASTEST CLEARING FROM NNW TO SSE. DID NOT GO THAT FAST. HELD ONTO POST FRONTAL CLOUDS THROUGH MOST THURSDAY NIGHT... MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TIL NEAR DAWN FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A MORE ROBUST FRONT ARRIVES AS IT TRAILS OFF OF A RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC LOW THAT SWINGS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS ROCKETS THE SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS VARY ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A WATER CONCERN. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONGER WINDS WITH IT...BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL IT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT. THINGS DRY OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LARGE OCCLUDING SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... VIRTUALLY ALL PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND ONE LONE SHOWER OVER BOYD COUNTY KY. EXPECT THIS LIGHT SHOWER TO REMAIN WEST OF THE HTS TERMINAL AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CLOUDS FROM THIS HOWEVER MAY CAUSE HIGHLY VARIABLE VIS/LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS THERE AT HTS UNTIL THE NEAR- DAWN HOURS. OVERNIGHT IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE HITTING THE IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS HARD. WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A HIT/MISS SCENARIO REGARDING VIS/LOW STRATUS AS PERIODIC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS RIDE OVERHEAD AS WELL...BUT DO AGREE WITH PREV FCST THAT EVENTUALLY MANY OF THE TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS BY THE 10Z-12Z TIME FRAME. EARLY MORNING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY AND A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE FOR MAINLY AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO MATERIALIZE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE...DENSITY...AND TIMING MAY VARY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...50

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