Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 190614 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 214 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front stalls and returns back north today. A much stronger front moves through Thursday night. High pressure builds in by Sunday and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... Cold front as of 02Z was draped across OH, roughly from ILN to CMH to YNG. A broken line of showers was noted just ahead of the baroclinic zone. This boundary will slowly move into the area thru morning before becoming quasi stationary along the OH/KY border, extending NE along the Route 33 corridor into WV. The areal coverage of showers should gradually wane toward morning so that only a few showers are foreseen by the time the front checks up. This front will return north as a warm front as the day progresses with perhaps an uptick in precip coverage with daytime heating into SE OH and N WV. There is just enough instability along the boundary for perhaps a few storms as well, especially late in the day. Temperatures today are entirely dependent on the location of the baroclinic zone with a good bit of low stratus along and north of the boundary to contend with. Models are consistent in showing a good temperature gradient from north to south today with areas along and south of I64 peaking out into the lower to mid 80s while SE OH and N WV stay in the 70s. Regardless, it should be another day of above normal temperatures areawide. Tonight the warm front will become stationary across S OH as a surface wave develops and rides along the boundary. This puts parts of SE OH under the cross hairs for rounds of showers and perhaps a few storms overnight. Areas to the SE which includes much of WV zones should stay precip free tonight in the warm sector. It will be yet another very mild night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... Good model consensus on a strong upper trough driving a strong cold front eastward across the area later Thursday and Thursday night. There will be plenty of moisture available in a plume of high PW`S, on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. With the upper trough taking on a negative tilt, plenty of dynamics will combine with the plentiful moisture to push a widespread band of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front Thursday into Thursday night. QPF will likely be on the order of a half an inch to an inch. We will keep an eye out for any severe thunderstorm potential as the system gets closer. High temperatures Thursday of around 80 degrees will take a nose dive Thursday night as the front exits the mountains, while the blustery northwest winds take over. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... Friday will be blustery and chilly with lingering showers under the upper trough, with gusty northwest winds. Look for highs only in the 50s. Models then lift the upper trough out beginning late Saturday, ending any lingering showers in the mountains Saturday morning. Some snow flakes may fly Friday night in the highest elevations of the northern mountains, but little to no accumulation. As the upper trough lifts out and high pressure builds in, look for dry weather Sunday into early next week with a warming trend. Temperatures will get back to near normal by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... Cold front as of 06Z located near KILN to KCMH to KYNG in OH. A broken line of showers was noted just ahead of the boundary. As the boundary enters the area of the next several hours, cigs will lower into low end MVFR with a narrow belt of IFR stratus as well. Timed the front for bringing in MVFR stratus across most terminals except KBKW into the morning hours. Thinking IFR stratus along the boundary will affect KPKB in the 12 to 14Z time frame along with some reductions in vsby with scattered showers around. This front will check up along the US 33 corridor before returning north as a warm front as the day progresses. MVFR stratus across KHTS/KCRW will lift by mid morning while taking until later this afternoon for KPKB/KCKB/KEKN to see improving cigs. The warm front will become nearly stationary NW of the OH River tonight as a wave of low pressure rides along the boundary. As a result of this and being entrenched in the warm sector, VFR conditions are expected tonight at all taf sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Uncertainty still how far south low stratus will make it. Also, near the vicinity of the front its possible there could be some IFR stratus this morning that may extend into KCKB for a time. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... Typical early morning valley fog possible this week. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.