Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161402 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 902 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure passes south of the area today and tonight. Weak systems bring some light rain Sunday afternoon into Monday night. Cold fronts cross Tuesday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 900 AM Saturday... Will clear skies a bit quicker today based on current satellite trends. As of 620 AM Saturday... Forecast on track. As of 330 AM Saturday... Low level warm advection should cut off any remaining mountain snow showers early this morning, and break up the stratocu southwest to northeast by late morning. High pressure passes south of the area today and tonight, as upper level ridging builds. All of this will allow for sunshine by this afternoon, and then a mainly clear night tonight. High clouds will start to increase from the southwest toward dawn Sunday, ahead of an upper level low that quickly lifts out of northern Mexico while opening up. Latest guidance was at or below ongoing highs for today, as the atmosphere only mixes through h925. Increased ridge valley differences on lows tonight, in warm advection low level flow that weakens late. The MAV seemed rather low, even for the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Saturday... Warmer, and overall drier weather this weekend. A shortwave will move through the region on Sunday, creating a chance for showers. As of now, based on timing of precipitation, have only rain coded in the forecast, but any change in the timing, could result in a brief wintry mix across the north on Sunday. Otherwise, Monday is looking much drier, with another cold front progged for Tuesday/Tuesday night as low pressure moves east across Canada. This period is also looking to be drier, with moisture from southern stream system remaining to our south, and an overall lack of significant moisture from northern system. Expecting just a chance of precipitation, mainly across the higher terrain, with rain and snow showers Tuesday night behind the front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 AM Saturday... Unsettled weather for the long term period, with another cold front slated for late in the period. Bulk of precipitation during this period will fall as rain, although a transition to light snow is possible for Friday night behind the front, but, as often is the case, by the time enough cold air is in place, moisture will be lacking. Lots of uncertainty exists for the upcoming weekend and beyond but overall pattern looking quite active. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 620 AM Saturday... Stratocu was breaking up early this morning, although brief MVFR morning cu is still possible in northeast WV. Otherwise, VFR conditions are on tap for today and tonight, as high pressure passes south of the area. Southwest surface flow near 10 kts today will become light south to southwest tonight. Moderate west to northwest flow aloft today and tonight will become light west to southwest toward dawn Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR morning cu may or may not occur this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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