Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 190614
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
214 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016
Cold front stalls and returns back north today. A much stronger
front moves through Thursday night. High pressure builds in by
Sunday and early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...
Cold front as of 02Z was draped across OH, roughly from ILN to
CMH to YNG. A broken line of showers was noted just ahead of the
baroclinic zone. This boundary will slowly move into the area thru
morning before becoming quasi stationary along the OH/KY border,
extending NE along the Route 33 corridor into WV. The areal
coverage of showers should gradually wane toward morning so that
only a few showers are foreseen by the time the front checks up.
This front will return north as a warm front as the day progresses
with perhaps an uptick in precip coverage with daytime heating
into SE OH and N WV. There is just enough instability along the
boundary for perhaps a few storms as well, especially late in the
day. Temperatures today are entirely dependent on the location of
the baroclinic zone with a good bit of low stratus along and north
of the boundary to contend with. Models are consistent in showing
a good temperature gradient from north to south today with areas
along and south of I64 peaking out into the lower to mid 80s while
SE OH and N WV stay in the 70s. Regardless, it should be another
day of above normal temperatures areawide.
Tonight the warm front will become stationary across S OH as a
surface wave develops and rides along the boundary. This puts
parts of SE OH under the cross hairs for rounds of showers and
perhaps a few storms overnight. Areas to the SE which includes
much of WV zones should stay precip free tonight in the warm
sector. It will be yet another very mild night.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...
Good model consensus on a strong upper trough driving a strong
cold front eastward across the area later Thursday and Thursday
night. There will be plenty of moisture available in a plume of
high PW`S, on the order of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. With the upper
trough taking on a negative tilt, plenty of dynamics will combine
with the plentiful moisture to push a widespread band of showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front Thursday into
Thursday night. QPF will likely be on the order of a half an inch
to an inch. We will keep an eye out for any severe thunderstorm
potential as the system gets closer. High temperatures Thursday of
around 80 degrees will take a nose dive Thursday night as the
front exits the mountains, while the blustery northwest winds take
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...
Friday will be blustery and chilly with lingering showers under
the upper trough, with gusty northwest winds. Look for highs only
in the 50s. Models then lift the upper trough out beginning late
Saturday, ending any lingering showers in the mountains Saturday
morning. Some snow flakes may fly Friday night in the highest
elevations of the northern mountains, but little to no
accumulation. As the upper trough lifts out and high pressure
builds in, look for dry weather Sunday into early next week with a
warming trend. Temperatures will get back to near normal by
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Cold front as of 06Z located near KILN to KCMH to KYNG in OH. A
broken line of showers was noted just ahead of the boundary. As
the boundary enters the area of the next several hours, cigs will
lower into low end MVFR with a narrow belt of IFR stratus as well.
Timed the front for bringing in MVFR stratus across most terminals
except KBKW into the morning hours. Thinking IFR stratus along
the boundary will affect KPKB in the 12 to 14Z time frame along
with some reductions in vsby with scattered showers around. This
front will check up along the US 33 corridor before returning
north as a warm front as the day progresses. MVFR stratus across
KHTS/KCRW will lift by mid morning while taking until later this
afternoon for KPKB/KCKB/KEKN to see improving cigs.
The warm front will become nearly stationary NW of the OH River
tonight as a wave of low pressure rides along the boundary. As a
result of this and being entrenched in the warm sector, VFR
conditions are expected tonight at all taf sites.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Uncertainty still how far south low stratus
will make it. Also, near the vicinity of the front its possible
there could be some IFR stratus this morning that may extend into
KCKB for a time.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Typical early morning valley fog possible this week. IFR possible in
showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.