Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140559 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 159 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure prevails through Saturday. A cold front crosses Sunday afternoon and evening. Much cooler early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 155 AM Saturday... Fog a little slow to set in, otherwise forecast on track. As of 730 PM Friday... Updated for more river valley fog later tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes. As of 225 PM Friday... High pressure dictating the weather through tonight will continue to shift eastward away from the New England coast while a baroclinic zone strengthens in response to a digging trough in the intermountain west. Expecting flow to become southwesterly as the frontal system develops and pushes eastward into the Mississippi valley. From a sensible weather standpoint, precipitation is not expected, and temperatures remain warm before the change of airmass coming in the short term period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday... Low level flow veers Saturday night, as broad southwest flow begins to develop. It will remain on the warm side Saturday night as boundary layer flow increases. The pressure gradient tightens early Sunday as a potent upper level trof amplifies into the upper midwest. This will quickly move into the region with the associated cold front racing across the area late Sunday afternoon. Expect gusty southwest winds to develop ahead of the front, with a band of precip marching across with fropa. Thunder chances at capped at slight chance given the limited instability. Strong CAA commences Sunday night into Monday. Some post frontal upslope clouds may linger across the northern mountains with most everyone else clearing. The upper trof axis crosses Monday along with the H85 thermal trof. Aside from some diurnally driven cumulus, it will be a nice, but cool, Autumn day for a change. Temperatures were adjusted down a few degrees from Superblend guidance, more toward cooler GFS numbers given H85 numbers in the lower single digits. Surface high builds in for Monday night, providing for a cold night. Climatologically geared MOS guidance are gradually coming in lower with each passing day, more in line with local expertise and experience. This will set the stage for areas of frost in the Lowlands and a freeze for the mountains, with some mountain valleys possibly dropping into the mid 20s. We will continue to highlight this in the HWO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday... High pressure remains in control in the extended with a warming trend, back to above normal for highs by weeks end. Mornings will remain cool with good radiational cooling. There may be another frost/freeze concern Wednesday morning but should be much less expansive in coverage. RH values will remain low during prime mixing hours each day, though winds will remain light. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 155 AM Saturday... Dense valley fog is likely to form 8-9Z and then dissipate by 14Z Saturday. Meanwhile, an MVFR stratocu deck is forecast to remain just east of BKW, with the more pronounced low level moisture east of the Blue Ridge. Otherwise VFR, except mountain valley fog may start to form a little earlier Saturday night. Surface flow will remain calm overnight, except light southeast on the mountain ridges, and then become light south to southwest Saturday and remain so Saturday night. Flow aloft will be light southwest through Saturday, before strengthening a bit Saturday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog formation is likely to vary overnight. A low MVFR stratocu deck may sneak into BKW before dawn Saturday. If it does, it would mix out by mid morning Saturday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 10/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L H L H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible with a cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Valley fog possible Monday night and Tuesday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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