Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160707 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 307 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure takes control today. Weak cold front brings showers mainly across the northern portions of the area tonight. Much colder air moves in Monday with stronger front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 232 AM Saturday... Surface high pressure provides dry and tranquil weather conditions with above normal temperatures through tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight, increasing clouds and chances for precipitation mainly across the northern portions of the Mid-Ohio valley and WV tonight. Models show westerly H850 winds increasing 45 to 50 knots along the front. This will create strong gusty winds along the front and the higher elevations. However, confidence runs low whether wind gusts could reach advisory criteria over the higher ridges as only one model shows that outcome. Therefore, hold off on any wind headline issuance for now. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Saturday... Mostly zonal flow aloft with a broad upper low over Canada for Sunday. Dry conditions will commence late morning as showers lift off to the north behind a cold front. Westerly winds could be breezy at times; gusty across the mountains with gusts between 30 and 40 mph. An upper-level trough will swing through on Monday as the low over Canada moves off to the northeast. Breezy and gusty winds continue with a strong pressure gradient. 540MB line will also sink down as strong CAA takes place, and it will be noticeable with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. At this time gusts look to remain below advisory criteria, but will have to monitor trends as there is a slight chance that gusts may increase depending on how this trough will track. There remains a slight chance for snow showers during the day Monday with this strong system. Accumulations do not look likely, except for along the ridges above 3,500 feet, as temperatures won`t be quite cold enough for accumulations. Up to an inch is possible across the higher elevations of the northern mountains.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 250 AM Saturday... Wind chills look to be in the teens and single digits across the higher elevations Tuesday morning with strong northwest flow continuing on the back side of the exiting trough. A clipper-type system will move through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with another quick round of mountain snow possible. Temperatures will start to moderate Wednesday as flow tries to return to a more neutral pattern. Winds will gradually shift to a southeasterly direction on Thursday and Friday which lead to a warming trend throughout the week. A southern stream system looks to impact the weekend with rain returning Friday and Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 128 AM Saturday... Satellite imagery and METARs indicate a solid low stratus deck affecting BKW as well as the eastern mountains and western foothills with IFR conditions. Drier air has intruded from the northwest producing clear skies across the Mid Ohio valley and portions of WV including PKB, HTS and CRW at 06Z. These clearing will continue to spread south and east bringing VFR conditions to CKB and EKN by 08Z, and to BKW by 14Z Saturday morning. High pressure then takes control providing widespread VFR conditions through tonight. Despite of the clearing, H850 winds 15 to 20 knots and a northerly surface breeze will prevent widespread dense fog from developing during the overnight hours. Patchy river dense fog will be possible in the vicinity of PKB and HTS during the predawn hours. Light north to northwest surface flow will become light west to southwest by dawn Saturday, and can become a bit gusty at PKB Saturday afternoon. Moderate northwest flow aloft overnight will become light west Saturday morning, and then light to moderate southwest Saturday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight into Saturday morning could be more widespread and dense than advertised. Ceilings may fluctuate into Saturday morning along the mountains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/16/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H M H M L M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H M M M L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M L L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M L H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...ARJ

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