Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011447 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 947 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE...AREA OF WINTRY MIX DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS CWA. WE ARE GETTING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG NORTHERN CWA BORDER...GENERALLY CAN EXPECT AROUND AN INCH...WITH SOME SPOTS NEARING 2. UPDATED POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BASED ON 12Z NAM. THIS CHANGED TIMING A BIT...BUT OVERALL TREND STILL THE SAME. AFTER DRIER AFTERNOON...RAIN ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...WITH VIRGA TRANSITIONING TO MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TRICKY AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD THIS MORNING SO ISSUED SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. THE AREA IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND SMALL IN SCALE AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM BEHIND THE PRECIP BAND. DUE TO THIS SMALL SCALE AND ELUSIVE NATURE...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WARM FROM THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS NORTH. SO IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST AREA IT WILL BE SNOWING WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S. WINDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW OVER SE OHIO TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE VERY COLD AIR BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CHANGING ANY PCPN TO ALL SNOW. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO PRODUCE IDEAL SET UP FOR UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY. AS THE MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE AFTER ALL PCPN TRANSITIONS INTO SNOW...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OVER MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. 12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR FOR NOW...A TRANSITION TO MVFR WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO MVFR EARLIER. THESE SITES WILL ALSO BE IN THE COOLER FROZEN PRECIPITATION AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY ON...DESCENDING TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND DEGREE AND DURATION OF WORST CONDITIONS MAY VARY. TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE TRANSITIONS MAY ALSO VARY AND...WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP...FZRA IS A POSSIBILITY PKB...CKB...EKN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING HTS AND CRW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H M M M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN....LINGERING IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...MZ/JW SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...JW

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