Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251901 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 248 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES...AS SEEN ON H500 VORTICITY MAXIMUM...WILL CROSS THE AREA UNDER AN H500 RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. RADAR IMAGES SHOW A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND MOVING NORTH OVER CENTRAL OH AT 18Z. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST OH...AND PORTIONS OF WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER LOOSING THE AFTERNOON HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DECREASE FURTHER MORE. THEREFORE...ONLY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS. DESPITE THE INCREASE OF DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS PRECLUDING THE FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG...EXCEPT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART RIVER VALLEY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO PUMP HIGHER DEWPOINTS...INTO THE MID 60S...AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASS BY. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRI STATE AREA...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...AND NORTHEAST KY VALID THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT MENTION OF SUCH RISK IN HWO. FOR TEMPERATURES...MINOR CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE PROVIDING A MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO THE W. A FEW DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW WILL PROVIDE A KICKER FOR ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS DIFFICULT...THUS WILL CARRY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR TEMPS...STAYED MAINLY WITH INHERITED VALUES...WITH A SLIGHT BLEND TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES WITH DID NOT RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST KY AND PORTIONS OF WV THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING JUICY AIR MASS TO THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND AROUND THE TRI STATE AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST NO LIGHTNING WITH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND OH. IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO REACH SOUTHEAST OH...ROUGHLY AROUND 23Z. THEREFORE...DELAYED VCTS AT HTS AND PKB AROUND THAT TIME. CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS WE LOOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AROUND SHOWERS. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS LOW ATTM...THEREFORE...DID NOT INCLUDE SHRA IN TAFS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ADDED VCTS AT PKB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 17Z. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN...AND OVER THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS LIKE EKN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO KEPT DENSE FOG OUT OF EKN TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. .AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...ARJ

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