Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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477 FXUS61 KRLX 171419 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 919 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front lifts through early this morning. Cold front this evening into tonight. Another system for the end of this week and yet another system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 AM Tuesday... Made some changes to PoP based on current RADAR trends and meso ensembles. Cold front is currently pushing into Western Ohio and another line of showers with even an isolated thunderstorm will for along the front. There is some elevated instability and embedded thunderstorms will be possible today. Expecting any thunder to be isolated in nature, but still interesting to have thunder in the forecast in the middle of January. As of 615 AM Tuesday... Several areas of precipitation expected through the near term as a warm front moves through early this morning, followed by a cold front late afternoon into tonight. Relied fairly heavily on the HRRR and 4k NAM to time these areas of precipitation and sharpen the gradients between areas of precip. These models line up decently with the current radar picture. Did still include some isolated thunder chances today...transitioning across the western and then southern CWA out ahead of the cold front. In the wake of the warm front today, temperatures will be unseasonably warm with 60s for most locations across the lowlands. As the cold front crosses to the east late this evening and tonight, temperatures will begin to fall. However lows tonight should remain well above normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Weak cold lobe overhead on Wednesday may bring a few snow showers to the mountains otherwise light rain elsewhere. In between systems Thursday while still quite mild. A warm southern system drifts north on Friday bringing another round of rain with another half to inch of rainfall expected. Still no snow. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... In between systems on Saturday, next system approaches from the southwest and slides through on Sunday lingering into Monday. Surprisingly, there is fairly good model agreement this far out, so went a little more aggressive with PoPs on Sunday night into Monday. Still a little concerned with the persistent rainfall amounts, but so far have escaped flooding as breaks have been sufficient enough to flush out each systems rainfall before the next arrives. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 615 AM Tuesday... Messy aviation forecast through today with several areas of showers. Have current area across CWA associated with warm front lifting north. This should lift out of the west later this morning...but linger across the west longer. Behind the warm front, southerly winds will be in place from the pre- dawn through today, which should also help to keep dense fog at bay by sunrise. As a cold front approaches from the west, have another round of showers crossing late this afternoon into tonight. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder, but not high enough confidence to include in any TAFs. Have mainly MVFR in any showers today, but brief IFR is possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of areas of showers may vary, along with category changes. Brief IFR possible. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H M L M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L H M H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L M M L M L H H M H M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY L H M H H H H H H H M L AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible Tuesday night in lingering low stratus through Wednesday. IFR possible in rain Thursday night into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.