Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220636 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 136 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SYSTEM CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PESKY MOISTURE FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST AS WELL AS WAA WILL COMBINE FOR LIGHT PRECIP MOVING UP THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...MAINLY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT E WITH W EXTENT OF LIGHT PRECIP TO WHERE MOST FALLS OVER POCAHONTAS AND E RANDOLPH CO. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRIEF ONSET OF FZRA WITH PSBL SLEET...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIQUID AND PULLING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLIGHT DELAY IN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...THINK WINTRY PRECIP MAY WILL BE BRIEF. LOOKING AT ABOUT 3 HR PERIOD BEGINNING LATE MORNING FOR THOSE CO. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH AID OF DEVELOPING SE DOWN SLOPE FLOW. SOME PEAKS OF SUN IS PSBL S OF I64 LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE SE FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND WAA ALOFT CONTINUES...THINK THE RIDGES WILL SEE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS SHOULD HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES WITH POCKETS OF DZ PSBL OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASING ALONG AND W OF THE OH RIVER LATE TONIGHT FROM ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...NOT SURE HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL REALIZED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWLANDS. HEADLINE WILL CONTINUE FOR POCAHONTAS CO...ALTHOUGH WINDOW FOR FZRA IS RATHER SHORT BUT A TRACE IS ALL THAT IS NEEDED FOR THE HEADLINE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 5H TROUGH TO DIG OVER THE MIDWEST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING NWD ALONG THE COAST OF SE US. THIS LEAVES OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF BAROCLINIC FORCING THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN VARIOUS PHASES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FIRST WEAKER WAVE DEFTLY EXITS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ONLY BROUGHT ISOLD AND LOW CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WAA WILL BE FULL SWING UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION OF THE FROZEN VARIETY WILL BE NIL. A SECOND STRONGER WAVE WILL PUSH NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW POOR PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTH STREAM SYSTEMS WITH MAIN SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DELAYS FROPA AND ONSET OF CAA AND PLACES CWA SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END...MOSTLY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ON BACKSIDE IS ABLE TO MOVE IN. THUS...ONLY HAVE VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FIGURED FOR THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. USED MAINLY SREF FOR TIMING ONSET OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH A BLEND TOWARD INHERITED FORECAST TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS POINT...REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS HOWEVER ON THURSDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY POST FRONTAL. AREA DRIES OUT THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...CREATING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...AND WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. TRENDED TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SLEET AND/OR FZRA IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS. LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD ALONG THE E SLOPES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KBKW BY 09Z FOR IFR CIGS. THINK KEKN WILL ESCAPE NOT ONLY THE WINTRY PRECIP BUT PSBLY PRECIP ALL TOGETHER AND REMAIN VFR. DO HAVE VCSH CODED UP. ELSEWHERE JUST SOME 4 TO 6 THSD FT BASES EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY AMID DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THINK IFR/MVFR STRATUS HOLDS FOR KBKW THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING PSBLY INTO LIFR TONIGHT. LOW CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ACCOMPANIED BY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH KBKW GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING IFR STRATUS DECK IN KBKW MAY VARY THRU 12Z AND MAY NOT MATERIALIZE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/22/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M L L L L M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUE NT INTO WED...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS WED NT...AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ046. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30

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