Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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571 FXUS61 KRLX 242057 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 357 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front pushes north through the area tonight. Cold front sweeps across Sunday. High pressure brings dry air by Sunday and start to work week. Next low pressure system mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 PM Saturday... Sent an update to remove most PoPs across the lowlands in a lull suggested by the HRRR and latest radar images. Another but more widespread area of rainfall is evident moving northeast across central KY into southern OH. This activity is expected to reach southeast OH by 00Z Sunday. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 120 PM Saturday... Warm advection rainfall did finally pick up in intensity, causing some small stream and poor drainage flooding. This rain will move out of the area by this evening, but more rounds are expected later tonight. As of 1045 AM Saturday... Rain overnight did not amount to much, and neither is warm advection rain today so far. Mainstem Ohio river forecasts reflect lower crests, as a result. The weather forecast is otherwise largely on track. As of 300 AM Saturday... A frontal boundary will remain across the area today as a wave brings an area of showers. Much of the area should then go into a lull later this afternoon and early this evening as the front pushes north of the area. Showers will return later tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Models continue to show the highest rainfall amounts over southeastern Ohio and northern West Virginia, although amounts are toned down compared to previous runs. Will continue the flood watch as the ground is saturated and streams and rivers continue to run high. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... Wave developing along the front on the south and east side of the mountains could push some light rain back into the southwest Virginia and far southern West Virginia counties Sunday night/early Monday morning, but will quickly be forced back out of the southern zones of the CWA. Otherwise, the period is dominated by high pressure and a much welcomed drying out period. Dominant upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida keeps the area milder than normal for this time of year with above 0C 850mb temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... More rain arrives for the middle to end of the week from a fast moving panhandle low pressure system. Will need to watch the rainfall amounts combined with the ability for the rivers/creeks/streams/surface to recover from a very wet second half of February, and if the system will set up over the Ohio Valley yet again. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 120 PM Saturday... Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions in rain will improve from southwest to northeast by this evening, as the causative warm front pushes through most of the area. The rain was helping to thin out the 1SM and less visibility in fog though. Ceilings in the warm sector will be VFR tonight into Sunday morning, but visibility will drop to MVFR in periods of rain overnight into Sunday. Gusty south to southwest winds across most of the area tonight should preclude widespread dense fog overnight. The front will quickly charge through late Sunday morning to early Sunday afternoon. This will be accompanied by gusty showers with a wind shift to the west to southwest, and brief MVFR to IFR conditions. Quick improvement to VFR behind the front will commence from the west, as the TAF period comes to a close. Light north to northeast surface flow ahead of the warm front this afternoon will become south once the warm front passes. South of the warm front, BKW was already experiencing gusty southwest winds, and these winds will reach CRW later this afternoon. South to southwest winds will pick up and become gusty overnight tonight into Sunday morning, before a shift to the west to southwest, and still gusty, as the front crosses midday Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low tom medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions will vary, as will gusty winds. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H M M M M H H H M H L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M H H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Any IFR in and near the mountains Sunday afternoon will quickly improve to VFR. IFR possible in dense fog Monday and Tuesday mornings, and in rain Wednesday night into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for WVZ005>011. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.