Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280525 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds Friday into Saturday. A weak cold front Sunday. High pressure for the beginning of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 125 AM Friday... No changes necessary. As of 1030 PM Thursday... High pressure builds and may start clearing overnight. Some late valley fog cannot be ruled out tonight though mostly in areas that received appreciable QPE today. Slightly cooler and predominantly clear conditions Friday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Thursday... A high pressure system will provide dry weather for Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures Saturday afternoon should be well above normal for this time of year. A cold front will then drop southward into the area on Sunday. Confidence in the timing of the front is low due to model spread. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 PM Thursday... The beginning of the next work week will start out with high pressure in control. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will once again be well above normal for this time of year. Toward mid week, there is considerable spread in the model solutions, so confidence is low. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1030 PM Thursday... Widespread MVFR conditions, with local IFR conditions across some mountain sites including KBKW in northwesterly flow, to continue through at least 12Z, when gradual clearing to VFR is expected, with all sites progged to be VFR by 16-18Z. Light surface winds. Patchy MVFR fog may develop late tonight, towards or after 06Z, mainly in sheltered/deep mountain river valleys such as at site KEKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 10/28/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H L H H H L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H L L M BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...JW/SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.