Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 022330 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 630 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure this weekend. Weak upper trough late Sunday into Sunday night. Warm front Monday night Tuesday. Milder mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 620 PM Friday... Made some tweaks to POPs and sky based on current trends. Lingered sprinkles and flurries a bit longer across north central WV. Still low confidence on how clouds will evolve overnight with guidance split on the clouds across the west breaking up or not. With NW flow remaining, stayed closer to the more pessimistic and cloudy side of things. As of 130 PM Friday... Low stratus behaving as expected thus far today with Nam Nest model having an excellent handle on this. There is an area of weak CAA embedded within a belt of vorticity advection pivoting thru OH, helping to produce an area of sprinkles and drizzle. Expect this to pivot thru the northern half of WV late this afternoon with a chance of a sprinkle or drizzle. This should translate to snow showers across the northern mountains, though there is a concern that ice crystals will be hard to come by given a meager moisture depth. Still, the northern mountains seem to find a way to flake despite cloud top temps/lift extending only to -6C. Allowed for a few tenths of accumulation overnight. The bigger conundrum centers around what to do with the stratus. Most of the models show enough drying beneath the inversion to allow for more of broken deck late tonight and lingering on Saturday. The Nam Nest has had the hot hand so will lean on it for sky coverage through tomorrow. Even if there is some partial clearing over SE OH and parts of WV into early Saturday. Low confidence on eradicating the stratus completely late tonight into Saturday. Even if some partial clearing takes place...this should be short lived as cirrus advects in from the SW in Saturday afternoon. Temps tonight will be entirely dependent on cloud cover. Have gone a bit above guidance given the aforementioned thinking. This is also reflected for highs tomorrow with cooler temps north and warmer toward KY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 PM Friday... Warm front will push into the southwest Virginia zones Sunday from the southwest in conjunction with a weak open upper level trough into the southern Great Lakes. These system will be mutually exclusive, and do not expect any significant interaction between the two. However, the net result will be nearly equal timing with precipitation entering the CWA. May get light snow at first over the SW Virginia highlands, but this will primarily be a light rain event until the northeast mountains become cold enough for light snow heading into Sunday night. Snow amounts for now are less than an inch in those mountainous areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... Next system is a 500mb trough in the southern stream that will work its way into the Appalachians from the lower Mississippi Valley. Over the last couple of runs, the warm sector into our area from the mid latitude wave cyclone looks less pronounced, and will keep the mid week highs in the 50s across the lowlands. While rain might be a bit heavier than the previous system from the short term forecast period, it will be progressive should clear the CWA fairly efficiently. At this point, the synoptic scale pattern should amplify significantly with the developing upper level low over the mid section of the country. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 620 PM Friday... Tricky cloud forecast tonight into Saturday. Generally, western TAF sites have a better chance of VFR into tonight, but soundings indicate the deck should lower back into MVFR by early morning. Farther east, expecting MVFR through the night, with IFR at higher elevations of the WV mountains. Have an area of sprinkles/flurries moving across the northeast sites, so have included this at KCKB and KEKN for several hours this evening. Could be brief drops into IFR with this. Clouds should gradually break up and lift Saturday, with MVFR to IFR lingering across the northern mountainous counties. Winds will generally be NW through the TAF period, with occasional gusts up to around 15 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes in clouds may vary. Possible clouds could break up more overnight, resulting in more widespread VFR than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H L M M M L M H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H L L L H H H H H H L M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L L H H H M H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L M H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M H M M L L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain and snow towards the middle of next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...MZ/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.