Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222313 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 713 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday. Warm front Friday morning. Unsettled with waves of low pressure over the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 710 PM Wednesday... Only a few small temperature changes made tonight. Clear and cold. As of 205 PM Wednesday... High pressure sails through PA tonight providing for a clear and cold night. There may be enough gradient wind across southern areas to keep at least the hills from tanking too much. Otherwise...rolled with the coldest guidance which resulted in little difference from previous grid. Freeze warnings have already been posted for the KY counties. Thursday will feature return flow setting up, allowing for a quick moderation in temps. It will be another low RH day and with another day of 10 hour fuels drying, an increasing fire danger threat will exist...though winds will not be a strong as today. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... A sfc low pressure system approaches from the west to increase clouds, winds and chances for PCPN Saturday. Models indicate that an associated warm front will oscillate back and forth across the northern sections through Sunday. Models are in agreement that the low pressure center weakens as it moves across the Appalachians Monday. A cold front moves across the area from west to east to enhance winds and probability of PCPN. Coded likely to categorical PoPs with this feature per model consensus. South to southwest flow brings warm and moist advection to create warm temperatures Friday through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 PM Wednesday... The low pressure system opens up while over extreme southwest VA Sunday, dragging a weakening Pacific cold front across, with the likelihood for showers and the chance for mainly afternoon thunderstorms. Very weak Pacific high pressure follows for Sunday night and Monday, leaving a lot of residual moisture resulting in plenty of clouds, and even spotty light precipitation. Another upper level trough approaches Monday night, pushing a warm front, perhaps along with a warm wave, across the area Monday night. A cold front may approach on Tuesday, depending upon the influence of the northern stream. Temperatures closer to the blend of models through the period. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 710 PM Wednesday... Ceilings and visibilities unlimited through the period. Winds overall veer from east to southeast at less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday night and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26

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