Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220639 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 239 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure dominates through early next week. Cold front approaches middle to end of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1042 PM Thursday... No significant changes made this evening. Expect river valley fog once again...perhaps with a bit later of an onset than last night. As of 225 PM Thursday... A few pop-up showers dot the radar across southern portions of the area this afternoon, where the cu field is a bit more stout than farther north. One or two showers may stand up into a thunderstorm. The causative weak upper level low drifts southeastward tonight. This, along with loss of heating, will eradicate the showers and cumulus around sunset. Stacked high pressure builds tonight and Friday. Deep layer light flow will allow for widespread dense valley fog tonight, which then gives way to a mainly sunny Friday by late morning. Temperatures close to mostly well converged guidance in this benign pattern. Lowered the valleys tonight per the MET. The MET did seem high for Friday, but raised some spots a notch or so. Temperatures continue above normal per continued upper level ridging, and no air mass change. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Friday... Significant wx nil through the short term with deep upper trough anchored over the Great Basin and downstream elongated ridge oriented northeast to southwest. 850mb temps in the 18C vicinity keep well above normal temperatures going through the weekend and into early next week before heights start to gradually lower.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 230 AM Friday... Upper ridge begins to break down and we will lose the barotropic atmosphere that has dominated for the better part of a week. Expecting a cold front to work its way through the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, driven by the digging upper trough over the Great Lakes for the day 7 time frame.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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06Z Friday thru 06Z Saturday... As of 125 AM Friday... High pressure dominating through Friday spells VFR mostly clear; outside of widespread dense valley fog 07Z to 13Z Friday affecting all the major TAF sites. Afternoon SCT stratocu. Winds will be near calm overnight and light northeast by later Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and density may vary early Friday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 09/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...TRM/30 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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