Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262009 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 409 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak disturbances aloft in an upper level ridging pattern. Slow moving convection with heavy downpours Friday/Saturday. Southeast flow may raise shower chance late Sunday into Monday mainly mountains.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Area of showers associated with upper disturbance across eastern Kentucky...southern WV and southwest VA...will continue to slowly track eastward-southeastward through the day. To the west...line of convection associated with another upper disturbance across central Indiana/southern IL/western KY is progged to continue eastward...and may affect ne KY and southeast Ohio counties late...although by the time it arrives...should be weakening with the loss of any heating...and an overall lack of instability across the area. Increased pops for a couple of hours this evening across northeast KY and adjacent southeast Ohio and WV counties. Otherwise...expect an overall lull in the activity late tonight. Another warm and muggy night is on tap again...with dew points in the 60s. May see a little more fog formation tonight than last night...particularly in any areas that receive rain. Friday looks to be another hot and muggy day as upper ridge rebuilds across the eastern U.S. No significant waves are expected to move into the area...and thinking that best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across the mountains due to differential heating. Did add in slight chance to chance across parts of the lowlands Friday afternoon and evening in case anything moves off the mountains in the southeasterly flow. One thing to note...is the overall flow is very light...less than 5kts through the profile...and expect little movement with the storms. Thus...with the high moisture content of the air...storms will be heavy dumpers...and could cause quick rises on area streams and creeks and water issues in low lying spots. This is something that will need to be monitored. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Summer pattern for the Memorial Day Weekend in deep layer south to southeast flow. Expecting late day mainly elevated heat source thunderstorms that may come out of the mountains in the evening, before dying overnight. Sunday finds a better surge of moisture in the south to southeast flow, with what is left of a possible sub-tropical system coming ashore along the Carolina coast. Thus have higher chance pops that persist overnight into Monday morning. With the light flow, persistent downpours are possible. Guidance came in a little lower especially southeast portion of the area on highs Sunday on account of the system arriving from the Carolinas. Otherwise no major changes to the temperatures.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Whatever is left of a system that moves through later in the short term moves out Monday, leaving very humid conditions in its wake, and a nearly anytime chance for showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise upper level ridging rebuilds for a dog day summer pattern through the middle of next week, with diurnally driven thunderstorms. An upper level low is progged to roll across southern Canada next week. It may get close enough to drive a cold front toward the area Day 7 night, so have chance pops Persisting next Thursday night. Trended temperatures, mainly highs, down a bit per national guidance in this dirty ridge pattern.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Isold showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon...lasting through around 23Z. Expect brief heavy downpours and brief MVFR conditions in vicinity of storms. Outside of storms...VFR conditions with light surface winds. Overnight...patchy MVFR and IFR valley fog developing generally after 07Z...with VFR conditions returning with light surface winds after 13Z. Isold convection possible again towards end of TAF period across mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More convection may develop this afternoon than currently forecast. Fog may not form overnight...particularly if little clearing of cloud deck occurs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .HYDROLOGY... The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS hydrologist is working to correct this problem. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL HYDROLOGY...KTB

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