Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 271913 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 213 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warmer weather will move in with a strong cold front expected Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 PM Monday... Bulk of rainfall has passed through the region to the north, although rain will continue to hold on a little while longer across northwestern locations such as Athens and Parkersburg. As an upper disturbance approaches the region from the west, a slight chance of showers will be possible across western counties overnight, but the bulk of the rainfall will not arrive until Tuesday. Have brought likely pops a bit farther to the east compared to the inherited forecast, but eventually likely pops may be needed across the entire forecast area. Warm advection will continue to bring increasing warmth, with a few locations possibly touching 70 degrees for a high.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Monday... Highlight of the short term will be the approaching cold front and potential water/severe weather threats heading into Wednesday. Flows increase ahead of the front with strong shear profiles, and 850mb dewpoints on the increase to 10C. Decent available PW with NAM showing 1.25 inches aided by surface dewpoints pushing the 60F mark, especially for the beginning of March. Looking at the potential for a stout line of storms to roll through with a low end severe potential and marginal potential for excessive rainfall. From the QPF standpoint, the system looks to be progressive, and should move quickly thru the CWA. Storms would likely bring wind, but given the time of year, hail would certainly not be ruled out and should easily sustain themselves moving south and east with height falls aloft. SPC day 3 has the whole CWA in the slight risk, and will add this to the HWO. In the wake of the cold front, residual moisture will result in rain/snow showers Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Monday... Broad scale trough aloft situated over the Great Lakes takes the temperatures back below normal, reinforced Thursday night with another embedded short wave within the broader scale flow. Pattern becomes more zonal heading into the weekend with strong temperature recovery back into the 15-20 degree above normal range. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 215 PM Monday... Ceiling restrictions appear to have moved north of all local terminals, although cannot rule out a brief restriction at KPKB or KCKB. Appears that mid level clouds will continue through the afternoon and overnight hours, with some breaks in clouds possible. If any larger breaks in clouds occur, cannot rule out some MVFR fog considering the light surface winds, but did not have enough confidence in this scenario to include in the forecast. Rain will move in from the west late tonight into Tuesday morning, with KCKB and KHTS the most likely to receive any showers. AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/TGREEN NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TGREEN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.