Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 251806 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 206 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FROPA. SOME POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND S COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING. A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH AN UPSWING IN DAYTIME HIGHS...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AFTER WARMER AIRMASS NUDGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MAINLY STUCK WITH INHERITED TEMPERATURE VALUES WHICH WERE LEANING TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS. HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE. THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ENVISIONED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXTENT OF STRATUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF BKN MVFR CIG WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERED A BIT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY KBKW. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS CONTINUING FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING BEFORE INVERSION SETS UP. ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. NO FOG IS EXPECTED WITH DRY AIRMASS AND BL PUFF. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AMID SKC. THERE MAY BE SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PRIME MIXING HRS ACROSS KCKB/KEKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS COULD VARY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR STRATOCU TONIGHT MAY VARY ALSO. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...30

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.