Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140527 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 127 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... STRONG DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVIDENT ON MODELS...RADAR VAD WINDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS...GUSTING UP TO NEAR 30 MPH IN SOME PLACES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25 PERCENT DUE TO AFTERNOON MIXING...AND DRY GROUND DEBRIS POSE AN ENHANCE THREAT FOR SPREADING FIRES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS RE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS BUT STAY STRONG ALOFT. THESE WINDS WILL PROVIDE A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...AND SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON MONDAY. THESE STRONG FLOW IS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z MONDAY. THEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ACCOMPANY BY VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS USUALLY HAPPENS UNDER STRONG DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.3...MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECTING SOME STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH TIGHTER GRADIENTS ALONG THE FRONT AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND ALONG RIDGES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY WITH CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...EXISTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE S/W TROF TRIES TO CREATE FOR AN UNSETTLED SATURDAY. DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFERENCES REGARDING AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THREAT FOR SHRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL AIR ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER...WITH CONVECTION ENTERING THE WESTERN TERMINALS AT AROUND 17Z-18Z. PREFERRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC SET UP. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL TYPICALLY LEND TO HIGHER CEILINGS...EVEN IN SHRA/TSRA. TEMPOS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES. WILL REEVALUATE THE PREVAILING TSRA POTENTIAL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SPEAKING OF VISIBILITIES...NOT EXPECTING BR/FG TO SETTLE IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE STRONG GRADIENT WIND SET UP. MAY GET SOME GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION...ALSO NECESSITATING TEMPOS AS WELL. COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT PASS BEFORE 06Z TUESDAY...SO WILL NOT SEE THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFT IN THIS PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH 18Z. MEDIUM AFTER. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TIMING AND BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY BOUNCES COULD LEAD TO TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS. MAY NEED PREVAILING TSRA. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/14/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNDER MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50/LS NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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