Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251958 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 258 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED. ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY AND LARGE. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR OR WORSE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KBKW AND KEKN BY 09Z. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLAND TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT IFR CONDITIONS AT KCKB AND KCRW. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE NE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER THOUGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ032-037>040. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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