Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281447 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOTED SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV INVOF OF POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OH RIVER BASIN. CAA STRATCU COVERING MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMAINING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK... NO MAJOR NEAR TERM CHANGES PLANNED. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z. COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN. OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND TEMPOS FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26/KMC NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...26

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