Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191953 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 353 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak front and upper trough brings showers and storms to northern areas this afternoon through evening. High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front mid week. Cooler and drier for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday... Surface cold front and upper trough will pass just to our north this afternoon and evening. Currently along the front showers and thunderstorms have been kicking off across Northeast Ohio and pushing into Western PA. Forecast soundings indicate drier air in the midlevels across our Ohio Counties and Northern WV and this will likely damper the convection in our area. However, we are on the fringe of the better moisture and as the trough pushes eastward this afternoon we will see an increase in lapse rates to above 7C/Km and moisture may sag far enough south. Although the strongest storms will be just off to our north, there will be some potential for storms to reach severe limits with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Storms will quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of heating and high pressure pushes in. Clear skies and light winds overnight will make for favorable conditions for dense valley fog to develop. Tomorrow will be dry across the entire area with seasonable temps and mostly sunny skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday... Zonal upper level flow will hold in place for much of the period. In the lower levels, a broad Bermuda-type high enhances south-westerly flow gradually bringing in moisture and higher temperatures. Lowland highs on Monday will be in the upper-80`s to near 90, even accounting for the brief lapse in solar insulation with the nearby Total Eclipse. Foggy mornings are likely with increasing moisture and weak flow overall. Isolated mountain showers are possible Monday afternoon with the passage of a small disturbance in the otherwise zonal upper level flow... the presence of moisture and forcing, albeit weak, doesn`t allow for completely clear Eclipse conditions. Best viewing conditions with this forecast issuance exist in the lowlands of West Virginia and in eastern Kentucky. Tuesday, an approaching low will introduce modest height falls aloft and greater instability with growing shower and storm activity through the day.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM Saturday... A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday night through midday Wednesday. Due to its overnight timing, overall severe threat looks low for frontal passage though momentum transfer could bring stronger gusts to the surface. Showers and storms should taper off in the eastern mountains by late afternoon. Behind the front, much cooler and drier conditions will settle in with strong surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region. Aloft, deep northwest flow originating in Canada will keep weather generally clear with the caveat of low-predictability in subtle disturbances that may drum up isolated precipitation. Northwest flow aloft continues through the end of the forecast period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 PM Saturday... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible across northern sites as an upper trough swings through. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Confidence is still too low at this time to put any showers or storms on-site, but PKB, CKB and EKN may see brief IFR conditions this afternoon into this evening. Tonight... Clouds and showers exit northeastern WV as high pressure builds in. Under mostly clear skies and near calm winds, look for widespread IFR river valley fog from around midnight through early Sunday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and storms may impact PKB, CKB, and EKN and brief IFR conditions are possible. Also, timing, density, and location of fog tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MPK

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