Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260611 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Drier and warmer Friday with high pressure in control. Disturbances bring showers and storms over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 210 AM Friday... Finally a break in the weather expected today. Upper low continuing to move off to the east, as high pressure nudges into the region. Much of the area will still be under quite a bit of cloud cover this morning, but expect a general improvement as the day progresses. Gusty west-northwesterly winds will continue through much of the afternoon behind departing low. Clouds will gradually increase later this evening and overnight. A warm frontal boundary and upper disturbance will move into the region late tonight/early Saturday, kicking off showers and isolated thunderstorms again, becoming more numerous later in the day Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Thursday... Models showing a disturbance moving through the area Friday night into Saturday, providing some showers. Behind the disturbance, the atmosphere destabilizes with strong thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Will have to watch for the possibility of severe storms. With the ground already saturated from recent rains, also concerned with flash flooding. Yet another disturbance will move through Saturday night into Sunday, with thunderstorms once again possible in the afternoon and evening behind the wave. Flash flooding once again could be a problem. A weak cold front will then push through Sunday night into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM Thursday... A weak cold front will push south of the area Monday morning. This will leave the area under a persistent upper level trough for Tuesday through Thursday. This will provide relatively cool weather, with disturbances rotating through the trough providing showers at times. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 125 AM Friday... Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions as an upper low slowly exits the region. Expect a gradual improvement from west to east generally after 09Z, with northern WV sites and mountainous sites last to improve to VFR. Otherwise, gusty westerly winds today, with gusts in the teen to lower 20 kt range across the lowlands and 20 to 30 kt range across the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... Forecast Confidence: Low ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR and IFR cigs across the area may be slower to improve to VFR than currently predicted. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible during showers and storms through Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...SL

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