Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251827 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 227 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front moves across the region and stalls tonight. Lingering showers into Tuesday. Another system is slated for late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cold front to move through the region this afternoon and this evening. Plenty of instability out ahead of the front and with a very soupy airmass. Storms will continue to fire along this front and could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. The front is expected to stall over our southern portion of the CWA. Storms are expected to continue over that area overnight. Some fog may develop over those areas that receive rain towards daybreak. The chance of showers will linger throughout the day...especially near the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A sfc stationary front will stay in the vicinity Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect this front to oscillate back and forth keeping chance for showers and storms mainly across the southern half of our CWA. Models show sfc based CAPE exceeding 3000 J/Kg, low deep layered shear and precipitable water around 2 inches. These parameters suggest showers and storm can develop quickly capable to produce heave downpours in a short period of time. Isolated water problems could happens on training cells or repetitive path of showers and storms. High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees lowlands to low 70s higher elevations. Went closer to the super blend for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... This front dissolves later on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage by Friday. An amplifying upper level trof will settle in for the weekend with a cooler airmass taking hold. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold front,soupy airmass and heating will continue to fire storms throughout the afternoon. This front will continue to move through the area this afternoon and into the evening stalling over the southern portion of area tonight and lingering through Tuesday. VFR conditions will quickly and briefly go to MVFR/IFR cigs and brief gusty winds in Thunderstorms. Currently a line of thunderstorms from PKB-HTS-JKL will continue to move ESE and be over those TAF sites between 18Z-20z. Then over the rest of the TAF sites the rest of the afternoon and into evening hours. Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms will persists into the overnight hours with fog forming just between 09z-12z. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may vary. Timing of Fog formation may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JS

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