Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171735 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure aloft brings increasingly hot and humid pattern with scattered showers/storms through mid week. Storm chances increase with northwest flow Friday into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Monday... Fairly benign weather expected through the near term period. Afternoons will be hot and humid, with mild and somewhat sticky conditions overnight...especially across the lowlands. Feature wise there is not a lot to sink our teeth into. A nearly stationary front remains to our north/west, but may spill an isolated shower or thunderstorm into Perry, Morgan, Athens County area in SE Ohio. With a 500mb trough slowly drifting by and daytime heating in full swing... the cumulus over the mountains are becoming a bit more agitated, and expect isolated to scattered thundershowers to develop there both this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Anything that does form will be diurnally driven and fade out fairly quickly late this evening. River valley fog is expected again tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 AM Monday... The short term forecast is going to represent a transition in the upper level pattern from an upper trough lingering over the piedmont to an eastward migrating upper ridge from the high plains into the mid Mississippi valley. As this transition occurs, the POPs will move from lingering activity over the mountains early on in the short term to northwest flow aloft. The heat will begin to build into a sustained hot and humid period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM Monday... Activity increases in the northwest flow as the upper ridge continues its migration eastward to the southern Appalachians and eventually off the southeast coast. Baroclinic zone that had been parked over the central plains states will eventually shift eastward as that ridge moves off the coast, with a frontal system approaching by the end of the extended. Heat persists through the long term. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Monday... VFR expected today with a scattered to broken cumulus deck. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the mountains, and also possible in SE Ohio, but do not anticipate impacts at TAF sites. EKN would be most prone to a passing shower or storm. Relied heavily on persistence for fog situation tonight. Following timing and density from last night pretty closely. Fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise Tuesday with another day of VFR cumulus and isolated to scattered mountain thundershowers possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and extent will likely vary. May need to add VCTS for EKN this afternoon. Could need VCTS at EKN/BKW Tuesday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Dense valley fog is possible Wednesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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