Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 160707
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure takes control today. Weak cold front brings
showers mainly across the northern portions of the area
tonight. Much colder air moves in Monday with stronger front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 232 AM Saturday...
Surface high pressure provides dry and tranquil weather conditions
with above normal temperatures through tonight. A cold front
approaches from the northwest tonight, increasing clouds and
chances for precipitation mainly across the northern portions of
the Mid-Ohio valley and WV tonight.
Models show westerly H850 winds increasing 45 to 50 knots along the
front. This will create strong gusty winds along the front and
the higher elevations. However, confidence runs low whether wind
gusts could reach advisory criteria over the higher ridges as
only one model shows that outcome. Therefore, hold off on any
wind headline issuance for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM Saturday...
Mostly zonal flow aloft with a broad upper low over Canada for
Sunday. Dry conditions will commence late morning as showers lift
off to the north behind a cold front. Westerly winds could be breezy
at times; gusty across the mountains with gusts between 30 and 40
mph.
An upper-level trough will swing through on Monday as the low over
Canada moves off to the northeast. Breezy and gusty winds continue
with a strong pressure gradient. 540MB line will also sink down as
strong CAA takes place, and it will be noticeable with high
temperatures in the 30s and 40s. At this time gusts look to
remain below advisory criteria, but will have to monitor trends
as there is a slight chance that gusts may increase depending on
how this trough will track.
There remains a slight chance for snow showers during the day Monday
with this strong system. Accumulations do not look likely, except
for along the ridges above 3,500 feet, as temperatures won`t be
quite cold enough for accumulations. Up to an inch is possible
across the higher elevations of the northern mountains.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 250 AM Saturday...
Wind chills look to be in the teens and single digits across
the higher elevations Tuesday morning with strong northwest
flow continuing on the back side of the exiting trough. A
clipper-type system will move through late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning with another quick round of mountain
snow possible.
Temperatures will start to moderate Wednesday as flow tries to
return to a more neutral pattern. Winds will gradually shift to a
southeasterly direction on Thursday and Friday which lead to a
warming trend throughout the week. A southern stream system
looks to impact the weekend with rain returning Friday and
Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 128 AM Saturday...
Satellite imagery and METARs indicate a solid low stratus deck
affecting BKW as well as the eastern mountains and western foothills
with IFR conditions. Drier air has intruded from the northwest
producing clear skies across the Mid Ohio valley and portions of WV
including PKB, HTS and CRW at 06Z. These clearing will continue to
spread south and east bringing VFR conditions to CKB and EKN by 08Z,
and to BKW by 14Z Saturday morning. High pressure then takes control
providing widespread VFR conditions through tonight.
Despite of the clearing, H850 winds 15 to 20 knots and a northerly
surface breeze will prevent widespread dense fog from developing
during the overnight hours. Patchy river dense fog will be
possible in the vicinity of PKB and HTS during the predawn
hours.
Light north to northwest surface flow will become light west to
southwest by dawn Saturday, and can become a bit gusty at PKB
Saturday afternoon. Moderate northwest flow aloft overnight will
become light west Saturday morning, and then light to moderate
southwest Saturday afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight into Saturday morning could
be more widespread and dense than advertised. Ceilings may
fluctuate into Saturday morning along the mountains.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/16/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L H M H M L M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H M M M L H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ