Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 111454 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1054 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. VALLEY FOG HAS MIXED OUT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD WITH DENSE EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG...AFTERNOON CU AND A WIDE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES. WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...THERE MAY BE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN. BLENDED IN MET AND MAV FOR HIGHER HIGHS TODAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES DURING AFTERNOON HEATING ON SATURDAY. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...ENDING UP BACK AROUND THE 1.8 TO 2.0 MARK BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN OH/SOUTHERN IN/SOUTHERN IL BY SUNDAY EVENING. COULD BE SOME STORMS ON THE STRONGER SIDE...MAINLY IN OHIO. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD...GOOD FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP STORMS MOVING AND AVOID WIDESPREAD WATER ISSUES...ALTHOUGH REPETITIVE STORMS COULD DEFINITELY CREATE PROBLEMS WITH TIME. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN U.S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS BRINGS A SYSTEM INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. DRIER AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL THEN MOVE FOR MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... QUIETER PATTERN UNFOLDING NEXT 24 HRS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE VLIFR DENSE FOG EKN AND CRW BY DAWN...WHICH WILL THEN BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHER SITES MAY HAVE MVFR PRE-DAWN MIST WITH BRIEF IFR FOG POSSIBLE. NOTHING MORE THAN CUMULUS FRI AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. FRI NT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM WITH MVFR MIST AGAIN BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE EASTERN RIVER VALLEYS BY 06Z. SFC FLOW WILL BE CALM AT NT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY N...DURING THE DAY FRI. LIGHT S FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW FOR A TIME FRI...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT S AGAIN...BASICALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERALL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG THROUGH 12Z FRI COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING. IFR IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...TRM

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