Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280805 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS A PARADE OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVES ENEWD INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY...AND THEN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AS A SECONDARY CENTER FORMS OFF THE NE COAST. LOW LEVEL WRAPPING AROUND IT WAS PRODUCING STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WITH ITS SWRN EXTENT NEAR THE SW EDGE OF THE FCST AREA...NEAR THE TUG FORK. THIS BACK EDGE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD TODAY...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...AND THEN PULL OUT / DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER AROUND SUNSET. THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE / COMMA HEAD CURLING AROUND THE SYSTEM STAYS MOSTLY N OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL ALSO WANE SW TO NE TODAY. CLEARING AND LIGHT WIND MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MAV FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS TODAY...THE MET WAS HIGHER STILL. LOWS TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO THE BIAS CORRECTED MET...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE THERE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS FROM THE WEATHER SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AGAIN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW BY LATER MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS...DROP DOWN FROM THE UPPER MID WEST AND RACES ACROSS THE OHO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING TUESDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY AND ACTS MUCH LIKE THIS FIRST FRONT...KEEPING THE WEATHER ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE. DURING THIS PERIOD... HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LESS THAN THIS LAST SYSTEM...SO FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE MODERATE SIDE NEXT WEEK...AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK...WILL GENERALLY KEEP THIS PERIOD UNSETTLED. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS EXITS EAST BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WAS RESULTING IN MVFR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE CIGS WILL MIX ABOVE 3 KFT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATOCU...NEAR THE TUG FORK TO START THEPERIOD...WILL EDGE NEWD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND THE SUN SETS SUNDAY EVENING...ANY CLOUDS REMAINING OVER NRN WV WILL BREAK UP. THIS MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO BEGIN FORMING BY 06Z MON. IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. W TO SW SFC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL BECOME W ON SUNDAY AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MODERATE W TO NW ON SUNDAY...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THINKING SOUTHERN WV ON SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LOWER CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL. SO CLOUD AMOUNTS COULD VARY ESPECIALLY FOR BKW AND POINTS SOUTH. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO TEND TO VARY. AFTER O6Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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