Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181907 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 307 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER AIR SYSTEM PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CAA ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON GOOD NW FLOW AS UPPER AIR SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. CLOUDS SOME UPSLOPE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...AS H850 TEMPS DIP TO -3 TO -4 BY 12Z SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES...BUT KEEPING SFC TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. GENERALLY USED CONSENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HEADING EAST BY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NW OHIO. SHOULD BE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE ACROSS WV PORTION OF CWA. WINDS SHOULD ALREADY BE STARTING TO PICK BACK UP ACROSS WESTERN CWA WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN REDUCING RISK FOR FROST...SO RAISED TEMPS FOR SE OH AND NE KY A TOUCH. SHOULD THE SURFACE HIGH BE A BIT SLOWER...THAT THINKING WOULD NEED TO BE CHANGED. WILL CONTINUE HWO AS IT IS. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A LEADING VORT MAX CROSSING LATE MONDAY. GFS IS THE ONLY ONE THAT REALLY TRIES TO SHOW DECENT PRECIP WITH THIS LEADING FEATURE...AND ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THAT. MUCH HIGHER POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS ALL MODELS SIMILAR ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT. ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR WESTERN CWA BORDER AROUND 09Z...AND RACE EAST ACROSS CWA...EXITING BY 15Z-18Z. 500MB TROUGH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT...SO CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. RAISED TEMPS A TOUCH MONDAY AS WE GET A GOOD DOSE OF SUNSHINE WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS. ALSO RAISED LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STILL IN THE WAA ZONE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. USED WPC BLEND FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF CWA.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAD HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN. THE ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN. BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION EARLY ON. BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS. HIGHS A BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL. COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS FRONT. LOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT AFT 00Z. WINDS WITH THE FRONT WNW 8KTS GUSTING TO 20KTS AT TIMES. WINDS AFTER THE FRONT MAINLY NW 6KTS GUSTING TO 16KTS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING EVENING. TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR/IFR CIGS TO LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JS

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