Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030004 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 743 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK STEERING FLOW. SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WAS A BIT STRONGER ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT...DUE TO THE SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. PLACES AFFECTED BY THE RAIN HAD TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS OF LESS THAN 10 DEGREES AT SUNSET. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD STILL BE AROUND DURING THE LATE NIGHT...TO MESS WITH THAT FOG FORMATION. LOWERED MIN TEMP A DEG OR SO IN PLACES OVERNIGHT. WAS A BIT HIGHER ON THE POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LACK OF A DEFINITE 500 MB VORT MAX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIMILAR INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 35 TO 40 THSD FT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A VERY WEAK SUMMER LIKE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES THIS PERIOD. WHILE THERE MAY BE HARD TO FIND WEAK DISTURBANCES JUST DRIFTING AROUND...THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WILL BE DIURNAL HEATING. WITH NO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS ANY CONVECTION...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORY EACH AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE WILL AID CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH A BIT OF HUMIDITY TO DEAL WITH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO DENT THE RIDGE BY DAY 7/TUESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THE FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT FOR DAY 4/SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO MEDIUM. WITH THE SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BECOMING ISOLATED THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...WAS FASTER FORMING FOG IN PLACES AFFECTED BY THE RAIN EARLIER...SUCH AS PKB AND CKB AIRPORTS. YET...THERE COULD STILL BE PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY TO MESS WITH THAT FOG FORMATION. TO TIMING THE FOG...ITS COVERAGE AND ITS THICKNESS WAS IN QUESTION. DESPITE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED 500 MB VORT MAX... MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING SIMILAR INSTABILITY WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 35 TO 40 THSD 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY. OF COURSE...ANY STORM WILL HAVE BRIEF IFR...BUT COULD NOT INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 09/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION 00Z TO 06Z FRIDAY RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING 06Z TO 13Z TIME FRAMES FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/KTB NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...FB/KTB AVIATION...KTB

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