Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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345 FXUS61 KRLX 221956 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 256 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through early next week with numerous rain showers, as an upper low rotates through the area. Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM Sunday... Weak short wave is currently pushing northward across West Virginia and spreading some light rain showers across the Eastern Forecast Area. There will likely be a break in the action before a more robust short wave arrives later tonight as upper low approaches. Rainfall tonight will likely be moderate to even heavy at times as the lapse rates increase with approaching 500mb low over the warm moist airmass settled in the low levels. Forecast soundings indicate some weak elevated instability, too weak to mention thunder in the forecast, but an embedded thunderstorm or two is certainly not out of the question. Have decided to not go with a flood watch with about an inch or slightly more QPF expected. There is some concern with the low level southeasterly flow late tonight. The upslope component could enhance some higher amounts along the east facing slopes and this is where I have currently placed the highest QPF values. However, in the Lowlands this could also cause the opposite scenario with a shadow effect. Overall, any flooding should be minor and localized. Precip will lighten up tomorrow morning, but wrap around showers will likely persist through the day. Flow turns to the NW as low passes to our SE. Model guidance is still trying to bring in colder temps aloft and rain may turn to snow at the higher elevations late Monday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... By Monday night, the strong low moves to our east taking most of the rain showers with it. However, wrap around moisture will continue to produce rain showers across the north and the possibility of snow showers along the northeast mountains under north to northwest flow into Tuesday. Guidance suggest it should be dry with mild temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 AM Sunday... Another but weaker low pressure system crosses east north of the area Wednesday bringing a pair of fronts with chance for mainly rain showers. Temperatures at H850 cool down to minus 7C suggesting all snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday. From Thursday night on, deep northwest flow will persists through the end of the week, allowing mid level short waves to ride along and produce upslope snow over the northeast mountains through the weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 PM Sunday... A busy forecast period with strong closed low pushing south and east of the region. There will be several rounds rain rotating northwest across the area as the low passes. For the most of this afternoon conditions should remain mostly VFR with the exception of BKW where SE flow has kept the moisture trapped against the mountains. First weak wave out ahead of the approaching system is spreading light rain into Southern West Virginia, but conditions should not dip below VFR with this first round, with the exception at CRW where MVFR conditions could briefly occur. More widespread rain overspreads the area from south to north tonight, with conditions lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR in heavier rain showers. Winds will also pick up, but should not be much of an impact other than in the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of southeast upslope clouds today and tonight could vary at BKW. Conditions could fluctuate continuously with rain bands from system overnight and tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H M M M H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H L AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR in rain and fog possible Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.