Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041553 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1037 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH... WITH HEAVY RAINS...CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOWS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT AS OF 06Z HAS CROSSED CRW AND EKN AND SAGGING SE. NARROW BAND OF HIGH REFLECTIVITIES AS WELL AS WSR-88D VELOCITY IMAGE DEPICTS FRONT VERY NICELY ON ITS TREK. NOT LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MORE OF A SLOW DECLINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE 60S ARE GONE. STILL LOOKING AT SE OH FOR FIRST CONCERN FOR WATER ISSUES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS THRU MORNING. THIS CONCERN EXPANDS INTO REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON A MOIST FETCH SLOPED BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT AMID A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. WORRIED ABOUT SNOWPACK RELEASE IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A STIFF WIND THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY. TREND IN THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM IS FOR SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AND CONFINE THEM MORE ACROSS SE WV AS THE NEXT WAVE THROWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLANDS BUT STILL NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING GIVEN HEAVY RAIN PRECEDING IT. THERE IS ALSO A FZRA CONCERN IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND IN PARTICULAR OUR SW VA COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE AREA...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OH IN THE FORM OF A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. THIS THINKING PROGRESSES SE INTO THE EVENING HRS WITH NE KY AND WV LOWLANDS TRANSITIONING IN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO HANG ON ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV...MEANING MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FZRA. CONCERNING RAIN TOTALS...LIQUID QPF LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS THAN HAS BEEN EXPECTED. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER WITH LOLLIPOPS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THAT WILL STILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL BE EXPANDING WINTER STORM WARNING TO COVER REMAINDER OF THE N WV LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS. STILL DEBATING ON HOW TO HANDLE THE COAL FIELDS INTO SE WV AND SW VA GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND ICE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT ON THURSDAY...SO WILL LINGER HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER. ALTHOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGE OVER TIMES...FEEL THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTHWARD...SO WILL UPGRADE. FROM MCDOWELL AND WYOMING COUNTIES INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...THINK THE CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR TO LATE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...SO WILL GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT LATE NIGHT RADIATION. WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GROUND...WILL GO BELOW MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR LOWS.. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GRADUALLY BEING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING SOME WITH THIS FEATURE...BOTH IN SPEED AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL MAKE IT. HAVE ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING THE FIRST AROUND MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THESE TO FEATURES SEPARATE...WHILE GFS DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THEM. ENDED UP WITH A NEAR 50/50 BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR POPS. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS/WINDS. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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16Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY... WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL FALL OVER OUR AREA...WHICH IS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT LAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN WILL TRANSITION INTO A MIX AND THEN SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. LOOK FOR PREVAILING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M M H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H M M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-024>032-035>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ009>011. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ033-034. OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ085>087. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083-084. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JMV/30

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