Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210732 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 232 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 PM UPDATE... STRATOCU A LITTLE SLOW TO FORM OR ADVECT IN. OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK. 700 PM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. PREV DISCN... CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS JUST A TOUCH IN AREAS WHERE WE ARE ALREADY AT/NEAR PREVIOUS HIGH FORECAST FOR TODAY. FLOW BEGINS TRANSITIONING TO NW AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AS IT MAINLY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. 850MB TEMPS ARE DROPPING DURING THIS TIME...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. RULE OF THUMB IS TO LINGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES UNTIL THE 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES. SO HAVE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY COMING TO AN END AS THE SUN RISES. IN ALL...HAVE GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH NW FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS A BIT LONGER. STAYED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ENDING UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS. MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BY BLENDING IN BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS ON THE STRONGEST FORCING. STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW. STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS. WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE HIGH. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SFC FLOW WILL BE W OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 11/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JW

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