Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID 70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90 DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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