Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210642 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 242 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS PUSHING EAST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BEFORE ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITHTHE FRONT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE HIGH AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THIS PERIOD...SO ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AREAS OF RAIN FALLING FROM A MID DECK PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST SITES. THIS PCPN ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB RIPPLE OF VORT MAX...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY...ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS TO THICKEN...WITH MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. THEREFORE...HAVE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. COULD EVEN GET SOME ISOLATED IFR CIGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH NEAR TERM...TRM/JSH/ARJ SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...ARJ

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