Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 111923 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 323 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY LATER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOOKING AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEBATING WHETHER OR NOT TO YANK THE POPS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. CUMULUS BUILDING IN THE DIURNAL HEATING NOT VERY ROBUST...EVEN IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS. WILL MAKE THIS DECISION A FEW MINUTES AFTER THIS DISCUSSION GOES OUT. EXPECTING A VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE SATURDAY WITH THICKNESSES INCREASING AND FLOW TURNING LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY. SHOULD BE EASIER TO HIT 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW WEEKS BECAUSE OF A DRIED OUT GROUND SURFACE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS PERIOD. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON TWO MAIN WAVES OF CONVECTION...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SINCE THE GENERAL TREND IS TO SPEED UP THE WHOLE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...BUT NOT ALL THE WAY. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS ONE BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE IN THE WEST...AND THE SECOND BAND WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SEVERE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. IN BETWEEN...WE LEAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE WARM AND UNSTABLE. THUS...WILL OUTLOOK WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA LATER SUNDAY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE...AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY...WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CUMULUS FORMATION THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY REQUIRE A VCSH/VCTS FOR EKN...BUT PREVAILING DICTATES DRY WEATHER WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A TEMPO GROUP. MORE ROBUST CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING ON THE RIDGES 20 TO 30 MILES FURTHER TO THE EAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT WILL SCALE IT BACK JUST A TOUCH IN TERMS OF DURATION OF THE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG THROUGH 12Z SAT COULD VARY. MAY NEED A BRIEF AMD OR TEMPO FOR PASSING -TSRA AT EKN. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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