Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191415 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 915 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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915 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY AND TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS SET IN...WHICH SHOULD END ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS BEHIND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ARE NOT GOOD. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES AUTO CONVECTIVE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. TRICKY PART HERE IS WHETHER THE MOISTURE BECOMES TOO THIN BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS FOR NOW. WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LINGERED SOME FLURRIES IN IN MOUNTAINS THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH THE CAA. THE CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THANKS TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE...CREATING MORE OF BITE IN THE AIR. STUBBORN LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY KEEP CLOUDS GOING ACROSS E WV AND SW VA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY FOR W ZONES. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS AS WELL. EXPECT LOWS TO ONCE AGAIN MAKE A VISIT INTO THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGH RIDGES OF THE N MOUNTAINS. OF COURSE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW LOW WE GO ACROSS E WV. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE E AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL REGIME FRIDAY. STILL...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ON THE LOW SIDE...EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY DESPITE SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MIDNIGHT SHIFT UPDATE ELECTED TO TWEAK SOME GRIDS IN THE EXTENDED FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE WITH PATTERN CHANGE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MAKER SLATED FOR SUNDAY. AS SUCH...FELT CONFIDENT IN GOING MORE DETERMINISTIC WITH SKY/POP GRIDS. THIS KEEPS SATURDAY MAINLY DRY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA IN SE OH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN WITH QUITE THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES PER WAA AND DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW. HAVE TEMPS SPIKING INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM MEAN TROF AMPLIFICATION. WITH THE FLOW INCREASING...KEPT LOWS UP EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE LOWLAND HOLLOWS. SUNDAY WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF S STREAM SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO PHASE WITH N BRANCH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO TRACK WELL W OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF GOING NEGATIVE TILT. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND AS IT RACES NE THRU THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY DESPITE ALMOST NIL INSTABILITY. BROUGHT POPS DOWN QUICKLY WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY SLOT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOKS TO CROSS 60F OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDS STAYING UP IN THE POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH...IN COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL OPEN UP THE FORECAST AREA TO AN INCREASE IN GULF FED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. EURO AND GFS MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SET MAINLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR CHANGE TO STEP BACK ON POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AS ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL STABILITY AROUND TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG TERM MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALIGNED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. DUE TO THE SUBTLE UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD....USED USED WPC VALUES WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROVIDE SOME MVFR CEILINGS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT COULD CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KMC/30 AVIATION...RPY

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