Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231822 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 122 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF STATES SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS A HODGE PODGE OF RAIN...AND SNOW SO FAR...BUT STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN SNOW OCCURS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL STILL EXPECTING MAIN IMPACTS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WHERE LIGHT ICE ACCUMS...ALONG WITH THE PERIODS OF SLEET...AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL OCCUR. GENERALLY HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES FIGURED FOR THESE COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES. FOR THE LOWLANDS...STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT BURST OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT...AS DEFORMATION BAND FORMS AND SWINGS EAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEPT AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE OHIO RIVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS COLDER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE LONGER. BUT OVERALL...AT THIS POINT...FEEL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED SO THAT NO ADVISORY IS NECESSARY. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO FOLLOW UP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...TO LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO HANG AROUND ON SATURDAY IN THE MOIST NWLY FLOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS SHOW SYSTEM PULLING OUT EARLY SATURDAY. SOME MARGINAL UPSLOPE THEN APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS PULL IN SOME COOLER AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR AUTO CONVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING LOTS OF LIFT WELL SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK...BUT CLIPPERS USUALLY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE LOW. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW A NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON MONDAY IS COLD ENOUGH FOR AUTO CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS OF SNOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE TREND THAT WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY REMAINS...THE CLIPPER COMING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AT A HIGHER LATITUDE REMAINS. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT SLOWER BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POPS INCREASE NW TO SE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER PASSING OUR LONGITUDE. WE WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS MOISTURE THINS...850 TEMPS BECOME COLDER...SO HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES EVEN INTO TUESDAY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. STILL DRY ON WEDNESDAY. WARMING 850 TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NEXT WESTERN FRONT LONG ABOUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY... MOISTURE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 00Z...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH A PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX BEFORE FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY 00Z...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR/LIFR AFTER 03-06Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VA. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12-15Z...WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS TO MVFR/IFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING LOWERING OF CIGS INTO MVFR OR WORSE ALONG WITH VSBY MAY VARY A FEW HRS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L M M M M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M M H M M M H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ046- 047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...SL

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