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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 150840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
440 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARMER AIRMASS BEHIND WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT...AND STALLS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT...
-- Changed Discussion --
AT 07Z ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PUSHING THROUGH PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT RESULTING IN SOME HIGH ECHOES
ON RADAR. NO SFC OBS REPORTING ANY PRECIP AND NOT REALLY SEEING
ANYTHING BELOW ABOUT 8KFT ON THE SCOPE. THEREFORE WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CONTINUE A SPRINKLES MENTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST ZONES.

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK TODAY...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND WARM
TO HOT TEMPS AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS DEPART. PREV FCST MAX
TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND NEARLY UNCHANGED...WITH MOST LOWLAND
LOCATIONS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING THE
90F MARK. WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA IN GENERAL WITH A STOUT SW
GRADIENT WIND SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RAMPED UP GUSTS HERE AT CRW QUICKER THIS MORNING WITH
55-60KT WINDS CURRENTLY BEING SAMPLED BY KRLX RADAR AT BTWN
1500-2000FT AGL...AS MIXING ENSUES THIS MORNING EXPECT SOME OF THIS
TO MIX DOWN AS IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS EVENING/S COLD FRONT...AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN/THUNDER
CHANCES...INTO THE NW ZONES PER CONSENSUS OF LATEST NWP OUTPUT.
CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLD FRONT CROSSING PERRY CO OHIO BY AROUND THE
06Z TIME FRAME...AND NOT MAKING TOO MUCH PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS ONGOING DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AS STORM MOTIONS ARE
DUE EAST...SO WOULD PROBABLY NEED TO HAVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SW ALONG THE FRONT OUT OVER ILL/IN/SW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON TO
POTENTIALLY HAVE ANY ACTIVITY MAKE A RUN AT THE NW ZONES PRIOR TO
00Z THU. WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL...OVERALL FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD STILL ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK VERSUS PREV FORECAST BUT
ABOUT 3 HOURS SLOWER...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO
THE NW ZONES AFTER 00Z...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH STORM MOTION TO THE EAST...BARRING ANY
MESOSCALE FEATURES TO INITIATE REDEVELOPMENT...PRECIP WILL HAVE
TOUGH TIME ADVANCING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR
VERY QUICKLY. INHERITED MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S STILL GOOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIMING AND LOCATION...STALLING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE
NAM LOOKS MORE ASSERTIVE WITH GFS ON TOTAL DEFORMATION BANDS
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST MOVING SOUTH AS IT WEAKENS THURSDAY...AND
ANOTHER BAND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OUR NORTH FRIDAY. PW FROM 1.33
TO 1.50 INCHES...AND THETA-E TONGUE UP TO 340K WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE. TOGETHER WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE...MODELS SHOW SFC BASED CAPE EXCEEDING
1200 J/KG...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...IN A LOW DEEP SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...MAINLY ALONG QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY BY 00Z
FRIDAY.

FAVORED OH RFC QPF MAXIMUM LOCATIONS...BUT CLOSER TO WPC INTENSITY
NEARING 0.75 INCHES THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
0.50 INCHES THRU 00Z SUNDAY. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY...LEAVING THUNDER
ON THE WEATHER GRIDS.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD PROMOTES PULSE...SLOW
MOVING STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW A
SPREAD SOLUTION IN H5 VORT MAXES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE PASSING SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. REPETITIVE RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER PROBLEMS.

WENT A DEGREE LOWER THAN SIMILAR MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. USED BIAS CORRECTED GFS/GMOS FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY SUNDAY...LEAVING THE
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO WERE USED WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS IN THE LOWLANDS BY 18Z
WED AND MID TO UPPER 20S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA...WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT CRW CURRENTLY AROUND 50-60KTS AT ABOUT 3KFT. HAVE
INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP AT CRW FOR THIS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW...CANT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY
PKB/CKB/EKN...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING IN SE OH MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER 00Z THU AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT APPROACHES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT MVFR AND INTERMITTENT
IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SE OHIO MAY BE
DIFFERENT FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 05/15/13
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF/INTERMITTENT IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LONGER.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/30/26
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50