Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191527 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1127 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area this afternoon with showers ending from west to east. High pressure crosses Tuesday, but then we get back into warm, unsettled weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 11 AM Monday... Recent trends in obs/radar and hi res models indicate the band of rain associated with a weak cool front moving eastward across the area is a bit more progressive. By afternoon the western half of the area will sunshine, while the eastern portion, especially the mountains, will see improvement later this afternoon. By evening, expect most of this band of precip to have exited the mountains. Will still keep low pops coming into the north later this afternoon and evening with an upper disturbance. As of 620 AM Monday... Forecast generally on track this morning. Front poised to cross the Ohio River over the next hour. The coverage of rain has indeed increased over the past few hours in response to better upper level support along with surface wave. Convective elements along the US119/I79 corridor over the past hour with latest Hi Res models and Nam showing this will continue for the next couple of hours. A narrow axis of 2 inches of rain within this area is possible, which may result in isolated high water issues. As 200 AM Monday... Surface front as of 06Z looks to be entering our southeast Ohio zones. This boundary will very slowly cross the area this morning, essentially waiting for a surface wave to cross along with the arrival of the trof axis, before the front gets shoved to the east. The coverage of rain has...for the most part...been tied closer to the front and wave thus far. This should continue to be the case over the next several hours before expanding in coverage with better upper support. Current thinking is most of the storm potential will be confined to central WV and points east through midday. Additional QPF of 1 to 2 inches is expected over the area, with the highest amounts probably tied to convection. Given the lack of rainfall east of the Ohio River thus far, thinking is a watch is not needed with only isolated instances of flash flooding. Following fropa, clouds will break for some sunshine. As the upper trof axis approaches along with steepening low level lapse rates, models are showing some afternoon showers primarily across southeast Ohio and northern half of WV. Chances were kept low given the mid level capping in place though rolled with coverage to get scattered wording in wx grids. Clouds will break overnight, though some stratocu may linger across the north. Low level winds should keep dense fog at bay for the most part.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Upper level trough swings through late Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly providing some precipitation to northern portions of the area. This will also provide more moderate temperatures. Temperatures will heat back up on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Models showing moisture/remains of a tropical system lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico into the region toward the end of the work week and/or over the weekend. Models are not in good agreement with the timing or placement of this system. Definitely bears watching however, as a some models have a rather vigorous cold front for this time of year colliding with this tropical moisture. One model even has a second wave running up the front behind the tropical system. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1110 AM Monday... Cool front and associated band of rain, along with an isolated thunderstorm, will continue eastward across the area this afternoon. Following passage of the front, rapidly becoming VFR SCT-BKN 4000-6000 AGL. By 00Z expect all areas to be VFR, with SCT_BKN 4000-6000 AGL mainly across the north, with an isolated shower possible under an upper disturbance. Winds this afternoon becoming west northwest at generally 8-15 KTS. After 03Z mainly VFR mostly clear as high pressure builds in. Models indicate there will be enough boundary layer wind to keep fog out all the most prone deeper valleys later tonight, such as EKN. Winds becoming light westerly, to near calm in protected river valleys. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could vary. Fog tonight dependent on wind. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H L H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR river valley fog possible Wednesday morning. Brief IFR possible on Friday with showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV/30

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