Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 241524 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1024 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MESOSCALE UPDATE... CORE OF LLJ CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N KY INTO C OH AS OF 15Z. SOME GUSTS 45 TO 50 KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY OVER THIS AREA...PRIMARILY IN SHRA. THE CORE OF THE JET WILL BE TRACKING NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...INTO NE OH. SO THE WINDOW FOR ANY SVR GUSTS IS SHORT AND MAINLY ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH. A RECENT 53 KT GUST WAS OBSERVED IN A SHRA OVER MOREHEAD KY. OTHERWISE...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE FRONT AND ANY SHRA OUT AHEAD OF IT TO MEET WIND ADV CRITERIA /40 KTS/. SO...LOOKING AT ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW FOR ADV CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS CWA ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE E...ELECTED TO HOIST THE REMAINDER OF OUR COUNTIES INTO THE WIND ADV...ALTHOUGH COULD HANDLE THIS WILL SPS SINCE MOST OF THESE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. 17 TO 21Z TIME FRAME FOR STRONGEST GUSTS AND FROPA ACROSS AREA. PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO NIX THE ADV SOONER THAN CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 00Z. BROUGHT TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON LATEST LAMP. ALREADY NEARING 70F IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN QPF FIELDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WIND FLOW...ABOUT 50-60 KNOTS AT H850 BY 12Z MONDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 40-50 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY MAINLY FOR THE LOWLANDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EVIDENT IN H850 CHARTS WITH THE MINUS 5C LINE FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS WIND FLOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT COULD BE LIGHTER ENOUGH TO NOT AFFECT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN 500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL. AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO FIGURE. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...EXCEPT MVFR ALONG RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES. OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ALONG RAIN SHOWERS. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF WINDS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30/JW LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.