Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281750 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1241 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRATUS DECK FINALLY BREAKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES...BUT STILL A CHILLY DAY. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. HAVE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIALLY...LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA TO START. WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS...WILL ALSO SEE SOME WET BULBING AND IN NW PART OF CWA COULD SEE BRIEF SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. HAVE A SMALL AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES...BUT WITH THE WET BULBING THIS COULD JUST AS EASILY BE SLEET. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. SNOW/SLEET WILL LINGER AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NEW GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH SLOWER. DID NOT GO QUITE AS SLOW AS THE MODELS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP OFTEN SEEMS TO ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT TONIGHT...HAVE NON DIURNAL TREND FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN BEGIN WARMING SOME PRE-DAWN IN SE OHIO AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN KHTS AREA BY 09Z. IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR THE INVERSION TO BREAK...SO TIMING OF THE WARM-UP IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE QUICK ONCE IT HAPPENS. SPENDING MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROVIDE A NICE WARM-UP WITH TEMPS INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND EVEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA. APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7 INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BKW AND EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN SOON...STILL SOME MVFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. MAYBE A FEW STRATOCU POPPING UP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT STAYING VFR. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING LATE...IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND LOWLAND RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. KEPT TAF SITES VFR IN RAIN...BUT IFR IS EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT...STARTING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SW TOMORROW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MVFR MAY HANG ON AT BKW AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER. TIMING OF PRECIP TOMORROW MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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