Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161540 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1035 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INITIAL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS EXITING MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING. ALMOST SPRINGLIKE...WITH DEW POINTS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO 50 DEGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL THINKING THE INVERSION BREAKS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE THE ARRIVE OF THE COLD FRONT...ELKINS WAS STILL 38 DEGS AT 15Z. RAIN AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THOUGH SAW SOME AROUND A THIRD IN UPSHUR COUNTY. AT 15Z COLD FRONT BETWEEN ASHLAND AND HUNTINGTON. SOME GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FRONT. HAVE THAT SHOWER BAND MOVING ACROSS CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS AND A UNUSUALLY SLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN FOR DECEMBER. SO MOST TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. DID ADD SOME DRIZZLE TOO OVERNIGHT...WITH MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE UP HIGH...BUT DO NOT SEE IT WORTHY OF ANY HEADLINE...SINCE SO LIMITED IN COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY DURING THE DAY. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT HOURLY SKY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...MAY BE MORE OF A SOLID OVERCAST LONGER...AND WHETHER TO HOLD ONTO SOME FLURRIES LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FIRST BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CKB/CRW AND LATER THROUGH EKN/BKW. WILL GET A BREAK IN THE SHRA BEHIND THIS BAND BUT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR. COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AFTER 15Z TODAY...AGAIN WEST TO EAST FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD BE QUICK MOVERS WITH WINDS GUSTING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO 25KTS. WINDS STAY UP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT HAS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER...HEADING INTO THE IFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY ONLY NEED AN HOUR OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. ALLOWED FOR TWO HOURS. IFR CEILINGS TIMING TONIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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