Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281722 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 122 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving convection with heavy downpours again today. Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance Sunday in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overall...no significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. As expected...sct showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across Ohio...and am expecting sct showers and thunderstorms to develop across southeast Ohio...NE KY...and adjacent WV counties this afternoon...as upper disturbances moving north out ahead of an approaching upper trough affect the area. In addition...isold convection has developed across the northern mountains just outside the CWA due to differential heating...and will maintain a slight chance across northern mountain zones this afternoon. As with yesterday...overall flow is light...and storms will be slow to move and contain heavy downpours. Bulk of convection will briefly die down tonight...however...things will ramp up again towards morning...as a combination of moisture from a tropical depression...which will move inland towards South Carolina...and upper trough moves in from the west. Models seem to be backing off a bit on how much moisture and energy will actually make it into our CWA from the tropical depression...and elected to back off the pops a bit tomorrow across the east as a result. Still...looking at overall higher pops across the east...with lower pops across the central and western counties as upper trough pushes east into region. With the expected cloud cover and shower activity on Sunday...temperatures will be several degrees cooler than in recent days...particularly across the east. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Afternoon heating, precipitable water around 1.25 and some bouyancy will keep low chance pops sunday night. Although low level moisture decreases some, there will be enough instability and moisture to keep isolated showers or storms on Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west bringing better chance for showers or storms. The GFS and ECMWF show decreasing QPF Sunday night and early Monday. While the GFS show afternoon convection, the ECMWF keeps light showers for the whole day Monday. Went with a compromise between these two models coding chance PoPs. Models are in agreement bringing dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another cold front approaches from the west Thursday can be enhanced by afternoon heating and associated convection. The area will remain under the warm sector of the next low/cold front system Thursday and Friday. Increase PoPs higher than 50 percent and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. A tropical storm could become sub tropical as it exit the mid Atlantic states northeast over the off shore waters. The general track northwestward to the South Carolina coast this weekend...and then just sits there through early next week...as the supporting upper trough is sheared north and northeast thru the Mid Atlantic states on Sunday. This shearing out of the upper trough on Sunday is caused by the current Plains upper low opening up and moving east across the Great Lakes. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISOLD to SCT showers and thunderstorms...mainly across southeast Ohio...WV lowlands...and northeast Kentucky through 02Z. Otherwise...increasing bkn-ovc vfr sky cover overnight...as moisture from a low along the Carolina coast advects into the region. Thinking this should to keep much fog development tonight at bay. After 12Z...sct showers and thunderstorms will develop again...with heavy downpours...and brief mvfr/ifr conditions in vcnty of storms. Elsewhere...VFR with light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of convection this afternoon remains in question...especially regarding any location that may be affected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .HYDROLOGY... The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS hydrologist is working to correct this problem. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL HYDROLOGY...ktb

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