Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151839 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 239 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EASTWARD. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS DIE DOWN AS WELL AND GOOD COOLING WILL PLUMMET TEMPS INTO THE 20S IN THE LOWLANDS AND IN THE TEENS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS...AS H85 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN -8C TO -12C OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT TEMPS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE 50S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SLOW WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND A GREATER WARM UP THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PROSPECT FOR A FREEZE REMAINS. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE DIFFERENTLY...AS WE HAVE A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION IN A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE STREAMS DO NOT PHASE...SOME MODELS KEY ON THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT AS THE DOMINANT ONE FOR US WHILE OTHERS KEY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS DISTANT TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...AND CERTAINLY NOT AS WARM AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MULTIPLE S/W TROFS SWING THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEAN UPPER TROF TRIES TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE E CONUS. NO DAY LOOKS LIKE A TOTAL WASHOUT BUT DO BELIEVE A FEW SHRA WILL BE AROUND SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR THOSE DAYS. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IS MAINLY FROM PKB-HTS- JKL LINE. NW WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 5-1OKTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR-MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL END BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS ENDING MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDTIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...21/KTB/30 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...21

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