Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301905 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 200 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through this evening. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Wednesday... A cold front will push through this evening, bringing an end to the rain. Cooler air moves into the area overnight. Looking at satellite, it does appear that there will be a fairly good break in the clouds behind the front. Models have some fairly large differences as to when the upslope clouds will develop in the western counties. Will go with a middle of the road solution for now. With cold air advection and low level moisture, will continue with some small upslope pops in the WV mountains late tonight and Thursday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Wednesday... Much cooler weather is expected for the end of the work week with slightly below normal temperatures. Most of the area will remain dry, but in the NW flow and with upper trough swinging through, it`s possible that the mountains see some light snow showers. Other than that, it will be a quiet end to the week after the stormy weather we saw the first half. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... After Saturday, forecast confidence drops off considerable with several inconsistencies noted in the operational and ensemble model guidance. The end of the weekend and into Monday have a fairly high probability for rainfall, but the guidance is having trouble resolving how amplified and far south PFJ digs across the Western U.S. This will greatly affect how much rainfall we could receive from a system Sunday into Monday. If flow stays more zonal then we will have little in the way of moisture make it into our region. However, a more amplified pattern will have deep return SW flow and an abundant amount of moisture will be pulled northeast into the region. Hopefully guidance will resolve this better by Thursday after we can actually sample the associated short wave when it enters the Pacific Northwest. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Wednesday... Rain will continue across eastern WV and VA this afternoon, pushing off to the east this evening. Conditions in the rain band will oscillate between VFR and MVFR, with some brief IFR possible in heavier rainfall. A cold front will move through this evening with some restrictions along the front as well. Generally VFR conditions will prevail immediately behind the front, until upslope clouds begin developing later tonight into Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon, then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of the rain ending and timing of the cold front could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H L M M M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H M H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H M H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds Thursday through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RPY

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