Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251753 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 153 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST AS CLOUDS ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL YIELD A DRY FORECAST WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BESIDES BEING A TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST THE CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FEEL THAT A STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP...AND INHIBIT THE FOG FORMATION. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DEEP UPPER TROF SETTLES INTO E NORTH AMERICA. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING PERTURBATIONS THRU THE OH VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE WILL PROBABLY BE DRY FEATURES OVER OUR REGION GIVEN STOUT INVERSION AND ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THIS. WHAT THEY WILL DO IS KEEP SOME ROBUST DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRATOCU AROUND...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE RATHER THIN PINCH OF LLVL MOISTURE...THE STRATOCU MAY LINGER A BIT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY ACT TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP AND RIVER FOG AT BAY. FEEL RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET COME THU MORNING. HIGHS WERE DERIVED FROM CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH YIELDED ROUGHLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME MODERATION BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST CLOSE TO AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW COULD IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...UPPER LOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS... BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WPC GENERALLY KEEPS REGION DRY. HAVE GONE WITH THIS THINKING UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN LATER UPDATES. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME VFR CLOUDS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH OF THIS DECK PERSISTS. EVEN THOUGH THE DECK IS VFR...IT SHOULD PREVENT DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS FOG FORMS OR NOT IS LOW IN MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE THAT NE WV WILL HAVE THE STRATUS AND NOT FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MEDIUM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION AND DENSITY COULD VARY LATE TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/JMV NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...FB

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