Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201836 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 136 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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After another mild night, a cold front crosses the Middle Ohio Valley Wednesday. The front stalls or wavers through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 135 PM Tuesday... Bermuda high will continue the unseasonably warm and dry weather through tonight, and into Wednesday. A flat short wave trough in the upper level southwest flow will drive a surface cold front through the middle Ohio Valley Wednesday. This will reverse temperatures there, as well as introduce the chance for showers either side of the front. There is also the chance for thunder given some surface based instability, along with more than ample shear. With upper heights almost as high Wednesday afternoon as this afternoon, the front will be undercutting these high heights quite a bit, and afternoon precipitation coverage does not quite warrant categorical PoPs. After record high temperatures this afternoon, some records already broken -see climate section, and even some monthly records falling, another mild night is on tap tonight, but with some ridge / valley differences again. The low MAV is somewhat reflected in the forecast for the valleys, otherwise much closer to the higher MET. Temperatures for Wednesday are an hourly blend of MOS, near term blend and even raw NAM, reflecting the front cutting off the diurnal heating in its tracks in its wake, and, in fact, reversing temperatures over the middle Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Dry and warm weather pattern breaks down on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region, spreading showers, and thunderstorms back into the area. High moisture content air surging out ahead of frontal boundary, with pw values progged to rise to over 1.2 inches again, will result in periods of heavier rain at times. Frontal boundary will stall out across the region later in the day Wednesday, with additional waves moving along the front for Thursday, enhancing rainfall. Looking at around an inch of rain during the short term period across parts of southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and northern WV zones, with less than 0.75 inches elsewhere. With saturated ground conditions, this period will need to be monitored for the possibility of future flood headlines, particularly across areas near the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Frontal boundary will lift back north across the region at the start of the period, with additional rounds of low pressure moving into the area. Once again, high moisture content air across the region, pw values over 1.3 inches at times, and good dynamics, will create heavy rainfall. Still looking like the Ohio River Valley area will receive the bulk of the precipitation, with southeast Ohio and adjacent counties along Ohio River receiving an additional inch of rain just in the Friday through Friday night time frame. Thinking that flooding of small creeks and streams, and main stem rivers will be likely again. Will continue to highlight in the HWO. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 135 PM Tuesday... The area will be in an unseasonably mild southwest flow of warm air, between a strong Bermuda high, and a cold front approaching from the northwest. This will keep aviation conditions mainly VFR. However, as the cold front moves into the middle Ohio valley Wednesday, MVFR stratocu is likely to show up behind it, reaching PKB late Wednesday morning, or about 16Z. Also, MVFR to IFR stratocu may show up along the eastern slopes early Wednesday morning, which may creep into BKW for a time. Showers associated with the front may show up Wednesday, but PoPs through 18Z were a bit low to explicitly include in the TAFs at this point, However, thunder is also possible. Strong and gusty southwest surface flow will back to south and become light tonight, except on the ridges, and then return to gusty southwest on Wednesday, but not quite as. Moderate to strong southwest flow aloft will continue through the period, with a low level jet somewhat strengthening overnight and early Wednesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR may show up for a time at BKW early Wednesday morning. MVFR stratocu may become more prevalent over the middle Ohio Valley by noon or so Wednesday, toward the end of the TAF period /18Z Wednesday/, and showers, even a thunderstorm, may directly impact TAF sites with flight category changes. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Below are the temperatures so far, as of 1 pm this afternoon, forecast highs today, record high temperatures for this date and record highs for the month of February as a whole, at the official climate sites, along with the most recent dates that the record temperature was recorded. All daily record highs for today have been blown through, and all sites mentioned here are 1-2F degrees away from tying overall all-time record highs for the month of February. -------------- Temperatures --- Record ---- Record for -------------- As of 1 PM/Fcst Today ----- February Beckley ------ 73F/73F -------- 69F/1916 -- 75F - 2/17/1927 Charleston --- 78F/81F -------- 77F/1939 -- 80F - 2/24/2017 Elkins-------- 76F/76F -------- 68F/1955 -- 77F - 2/24/2017 Huntington --- 78F/81F -------- 74F/1955 -- 80F - 2/24/2017 Parkersburg -- 77F/80F -------- 71F/2016 -- 79F - 2/24/2017
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MC NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM CLIMATE...TRM

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