Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 040658 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT AS OF 06Z HAS CROSSED CRW AND EKN AND SAGGING SE. NARROW BAND OF HIGH REFLECTIVITIES AS WELL AS WSR-88D VELOCITY IMAGE DEPICTS FRONT VERY NICELY ON ITS TREK. NOT LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MORE OF A SLOW DECLINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE 60S ARE GONE. STILL LOOKING AT SE OH FOR FIRST CONCERN FOR WATER ISSUES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS THRU MORNING. THIS CONCERN EXPANDS INTO REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY AS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON A MOIST FETCH SLOPED BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT AMID A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. WORRIED ABOUT SNOWPACK RELEASE IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND A STIFF WIND THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY. TREND IN THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE NAM IS FOR SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AND CONFINE THEM MORE ACROSS SE WV AS THE NEXT WAVE THROWS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLANDS BUT STILL NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING GIVEN HEAVY RAIN PRECEDING IT. THERE IS ALSO A FZRA CONCERN IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND IN PARTICULAR OUR SW VA COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS FOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER ACROSS THE AREA...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OH IN THE FORM OF A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. THIS THINKING PROGRESSES SE INTO THE EVENING HRS WITH NE KY AND WV LOWLANDS TRANSITIONING IN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO HANG ON ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV...MEANING MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND FZRA. CONCERNING RAIN TOTALS...LIQUID QPF LOOKS TO BE A BIT LESS THAN HAS BEEN EXPECTED. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER WITH LOLLIPOPS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THAT WILL STILL CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR HEADLINES...WILL BE EXPANDING WINTER STORM WARNING TO COVER REMAINDER OF THE N WV LOWLANDS AND N MOUNTAINS. STILL DEBATING ON HOW TO HANDLE THE COAL FIELDS INTO SE WV AND SW VA GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET AND ICE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY TO SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN RECEIVING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER. KEPT THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND THE DURATION OF SLEET THAT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE INTENSITY AND DURATION WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONE OUTLIER PUSHING THE COLD AIR THROUGH FASTER AND SUBSEQUENTLY KEEPING THE AREA A BIT DRIER. OPTED TO STILL CONSIDER THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT BLENDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER WETTER SOLUTIONS WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE WPC THINKING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GRADUALLY BEING SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING SOME WITH THIS FEATURE...BOTH IN SPEED AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL MAKE IT. HAVE ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING THE FIRST AROUND MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO KEEP THESE TO FEATURES SEPARATE...WHILE GFS DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THEM. ENDED UP WITH A NEAR 50/50 BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR POPS. GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS/WINDS. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE WV BY 12Z. EXPECT A PROLONG PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THIS LINE AS MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION INTO A MIX AND THEN SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS. STRONG SW LLJ OF AROUND 50 KTS WILL WANE THRU MORNING AND FLOW VEERING TO W DIRECTION WHILE SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 03/04/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H M M M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNDER RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-026-029. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WVZ024-025-027-028-030>040-046-047. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ009>011. OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ085>087. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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