Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 202348 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 748 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure tonight. Weak disturbance Wednesday with a shower possible north. Tropical moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM... Tonight will be dominated by high pressure with dry conditions and light flow. A weak upper disturbance and frontal system in northwest flow aloft, will skirt the northern zones Wednesday. There is a modest return flow ahead of this system and modest instability across the north. The end result is that this system will mainly affect the northern half of the area with clouds late tonight and Wednesday, with just enough moisture, instability and dynamics ahead of the front to bring a few showers or a storm across the far north. However, nothing heavy or widespread is expected as the front itself will get hung up to our north. The central and south will just see some clouds Wednesday, but also a good deal of sunshine will also be present. Temperatures tonight will be down around 60 degrees with dry air still in place. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south. Much of the activity will diminish late Wednesday with the loss of heating and with the disturbance moving out. Not expecting widespread or dense fog for the most part tonight, given some increase in mid or higher clouds and some flow above the surface. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... A relatively weak upper level ripple may lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but moisture will be pretty limited. Moisture quickly increases Friday as a leading slug of tropical moisture and some upper level energy sheds off Cindy and gets caught up in the overall synoptic flow, lifting NE out of the Gulf ahead of the upper trough. This looks to move through the southern and central Appalachians Thursday night and Friday. The surface circulation of Cindy will still be in eastern TX at this point. This initial slug could definitely contain some heavy rainfall, but after several dry days we should be able to handle a decent amount of water. Still...cannot rule out isolated issues starting to crop up. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Quite a bit of uncertainty remains for the weekend. Models continue to show a strong cold front pushing our way from the NW Friday night into Saturday, with the remnants of Cindy approaching from the SW. The timing on how all of this comes together will have a very large impact in the weather we get out of it. Models continue to show the potential for heavy rainfall, but differ some on the location. While confidence is low, any additional heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns. Will continue mention in HWO for now. The ECMWF shows a secondary cold front Sunday, the GFS is not quite as robust with it, but opted to include some slight chance to chance POPs with this as well. Cooler air settles in late Sunday into Monday with below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 745 PM Tuesday... Weak to calm flow as a dry high pressure builds tonight for widespread VFR conditions. The exception will be along the protected river valleys like EKN and CRW which dense fog could develop during the predawn hours. A weak upper disturbance skirting across the north Wednesday. Mainly mid clouds and a few showers will accompany this system across the north Wednesday, while the central and south will only see some mid- high clouds. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR will be possible with the heavier showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium with fog tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may be more widespread if winds decouple more and clouds are delayed. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 06/21/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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