Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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646 FXUS61 KRLX 250618 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 218 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 800 PM Wednesday... Tweaked sky grids for the next 6 hours. Expecting clouds from dying MCS to cover the area tonight. Rest of forecast remains representative. Previous discussion below... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Generally quiet for the remainder of the afternoon with just some flat cu with some cirrus thrown in for good measure. For tonight we will be tracking a mid level feature moving across the area. Models are by and large in agreement on any line of shra/tsra weakening on approach. So...will continue with previous forecast idea of chance pops and roll with coverage wording. With this feature moving across with some clouds amid a strengthening low level flow...dense fog should be confined to the more sheltered mountain valleys and hollows. This disturbance moves E of the area by midday Thursday with mid level drying left in its wake to keep things warm and primarily dry for the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Wednesday... Hot and humid weather expected again for late August. Broad area of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking off an aftn shower or tstorm. Any severe weather should remain north of our area though will not rule out any isolated water issues especially near the more juicy air in Ohio. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 PM Wednesday... Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 150 AM Thursday... 06Z Thursday through 06Z Friday... Being in the warm sector...models show southwesterly winds just above the surface strong enough to prevent fog formation this period. Models also show an upper disturbance driving across our area later overnight and into Thursday morning...enough to generate at least scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the now moist atmosphere...especially across the northwest portions. Given all this...we expect VFR conditions to prevail this period. Look for SCT-BKN 5000-7000 feet AGL clouds remainder of the overnight period...except lower in widely scattered to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm...mostly across the north through 14z. Thereafter...generally sct clouds 4000-6000 feet AGL...except ceilings 3500-4500 feet with scattered showers and a thunderstorms mostly in the mountains through the afternoon. After 00z...convection in the mountains rapidly dissipate early this evening with loss of heating...then generally SCT-BKN 5000-8000 foot AGL across the area with lack of convection tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low stratus could form overnight western slopes. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L H M H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M L L L L M L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JMV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.