Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170318 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1018 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold under northwesterly flow aloft tonight through Friday. Warmer over weekend with building heights. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1010 PM Thursday... Had to drop the overnight lows in the northeastern zones quite a few degrees with some locations already passing the previous forecasted numbers. As of 200 PM Thursday... Low level moisture coming from the Great Lakes under deep northwest flow continues to decrease this afternoon putting an end to upslope snow showers. Skies will become mostly clear, except for high level clouds, seen on satellite images, that will move over the area tonight. Expect the lower atmosphere to decouple providing light to calm winds tonight. Light winds will pick up from the south on Friday. Another crispy night is in store per caa and radiational cooling on areas that clears. Used a super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Thursday... Other than some pesky showers Saturday night and Sunday morning...the weather in the short term will be quiet with a notable warming trend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 PM Thursday... Dry and very warm to start next week as high pressure, surface and aloft take hold. The next weather maker looks to arrive mid week, with some showers expected. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1200 PM Thursday... VFR conditions tonight with only upper level clouds in the forecast for the most part. Some mid level ceilings possible at CKB and EKN. Clearing trend heading into Friday. Winds come down from their gusts in BKW and CRW, and will be less than 10kts tonight, backing to the southwest to 10kts Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 02/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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