Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291730 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1209 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A mix of clouds and sunshine this afternoon. Periods of rain with several waves of low pressure tonight through Wednesday. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 923 AM Tuesday... Updated the pops to better time the precipitation moving out this morning based on current radar trends. Also removed afternoon pops based on current model soundings. As of 615 AM Tuesday... No significant change. As of 415 AM Tuesday... Wind Advisory for the mountains expired at 4 AM this morning. Models lift out our current short wave and frontal system fairly quickly this morning, with the strong low level jet ahead of it even quicker. Thus the wind advisory was allowed to expire as winds diminish. Even though the models develop a deep upper trough to our west tonight and keep a deep southwest flow, there is model consensus that our current system will still push out rather quickly with a dry slot in the southwest flow overspreading the area today. This will allow drying and sunshine behind the front to spread east this morning and early afternoon. Since there is no cold air to speak of behind this system, being of a modified pacific nature, the increasing sunshine will boost temperatures well up into the 60s this afternoon. Southwest winds today will be much lighter than overnight. In the developing deep upper trough to our west, a low pressure system will develop over the lower Mississippi Valley later today and lift rapidly northeastward tonight. Models agree that while the low itself will lift up just west of the Ohio River, it will also lift the front and deep moisture back north with it. The combination of a good surge of moisture and increasing dynamics through the column of air will bring rain showers into most of the area by Wednesday morning. The best rain tonight will be over the west half of the area, closer to the low center. However, lack of deeper instability will allow the omission of thunder tonight. Temperatures tonight will also be quite mild with lows near our normal highs for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Tuesday... Models are in decent agreement with strong cold front pushing through the region on Wednesday. Deep southwesterly return flow gives this system plenty of moisture to work with. Widespread rainfall amounts of an inch or more will be possible with localized higher amounts. Most of the rain looks to fall between 12 to 18Z. Guidance also agrees that the front should be through the region by Wednesday night with much colder air pushing in behind it. Look for high temperature differences of 15 to 20 degrees lower for Thursday along with gusty NW winds. Could see some snow showers develop Thursday afternoon across the mountains with upper trough cresting overhead and the favorable upslope flow. Confidence is still too low at this time on how long the snow showers will persist as they will likely continue well into the long term period. Also, still way too early to talk amounts across the higher terrain, but will touch on this a bit more in the long term discussion below. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Northwesterly flow continues Friday morning and into the first part of the weekend could result in some accumulating snowfall across the mountains. Currently the temps aloft aren`t quite as cold and the flow is weaker than you want to see for decent orographic accent, but nonetheless, some light accumulations could occur in the mountains. By the end of the weekend the spread in the ensemble and operational guidance increases. There is an indication of warm air advection starting to take hold before the start of next week. However, guidance is still miles apart on what to do with a system near the Gulf. Due to this uncertainty I decided to go with a blend of the ensemble and operational guidance for this time frame. The blend gives us a chance of precip starting late Sunday through day 7 due to the timing differences between the guidance with this system. Being it falls on days 5 through 7 we still have plenty of time to sort this out and hopefully the guidance will start to come more aligned in the next couple days. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1225 PM Tuesday... A mix of clouds and sunshine can be expected this afternoon. Some clouds early this afternoon could be MVFR, but will rise to VFR by mid afternoon. VFR conditions will generally continue this evening, although some developing showers could cause some restrictions. An area of precipitation will then develop later tonight, causing areas of MVFR conditions. A cold front will push through on Wednesday with a band of showers and/or thunderstorms causing IFR/MVFR restrictions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this afternoon and evening, then medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of rain and associated restrictions this morning and again tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M M H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible with a cold front Wednesday afternoon. IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RPY

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