Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261823 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 222 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SLOWS UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY. IT THEN MOVES BACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT. MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT. MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY. KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE. WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR DAY AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER NT OF RADIATION FOG IN THE VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WAS FIRING UP THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CHICAGO EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO ROVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE VLIFR IN DENSE FOG. TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS IN THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS TUE...PROBABLY REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON OVER / NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SCATTERED TO LEAVE DIRECT IMPACTS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE. SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT NE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKS TOWARD THE NW DURING THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/50 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...TRM

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