Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230724 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 224 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. CLIPPER/TURNING COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS RADAR IMAGES AND MODEL GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF PCPN EXPECTED. SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THEY HAVE ALSO SHIFTED THE DRY SLOT A BIT WEST. TRIED TO INCORPORATE A HINT OF THIS DRY SLOT MAKING IT INTO EASTERN ZONES...BUT STILL KEEP POPS AT AND ABOVE 50 WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK OF DRY SLOT. DID INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SOME AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT ONLY LITTLE CHANGES MADE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. BEST CHANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WILL AS EVERYTHING PULLS OUT. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY LITTLE CHANGES TO SNOW IN LOWLANDS. THIS HAS US GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILE...DRY SLOT POSITION AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO AS IS. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY...WITH MORE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WV. THIS IS QUICKLY PUSHED OUT WITH LITTLE TO NO LINGERING NW FLOW UPSLOPE AS CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE TREND THAT WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY REMAINS...THE CLIPPER COMING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AT A HIGHER LATITUDE REMAINS. AS A RESULT...WAS A BIT SLOWER BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POPS INCREASE NW TO SE DURING SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER PASSING OUR LONGITUDE. WE WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE WANING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS MOISTURE THINS...850 TEMPS BECOME COLDER...SO HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES EVEN INTO TUESDAY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. STILL DRY ON WEDNESDAY. WARMING 850 TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NEXT WESTERN FRONT LONG ABOUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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06Z FRIDAY THRU 06Z SATURDAY... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY. CIGS WILL LOWER AS PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS SW VA AND SE WV AFFECTING KBKW BY 18Z WITH MVFR. PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING WITH MOST OF REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS IN PRECIP BY 21Z. MVFR VSBY WILL LAG BEHIND A FEW HRS. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP THRU 00Z TO BE LIQUID...SAVE FOR A HR OR TWO OF A MIX FOR KBKW AT ONSET. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW. VSBY WILL FOLLOW SUITE WITH LOCALIZED VLIFR VSBY. IN THE HIGH TERRAIN A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN OUT OF SSE THIS MORNING...PROVIDING FOR SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS AT KBKW. OTHERWISE 5 TO 10 KT WINDS OUT OF NE FOR W TERMINALS AND E FOR THE MTN TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING LOWERING OF CIGS INTO MVFR OR WORSE ALONG WITH VSBY MAY VARY A FEW HRS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 01/23/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...30

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