Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181048 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 648 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front slowly moves into the area tonight and Wednesday before retreating. A much stronger front moves through Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 645 AM Tuesday... Gave some TLC to the hourly temp grids based on recent trends. changes with the early morning update. As of 145 AM Tuesday... Another very warm day is in store...continuing this well advertised warm spell. Guidance is running rather high for today and surprisingly perhaps a bit too high given H85 temps and some flat cumulus around. Still hard to ignore the consensus, so will roll close to the SuperBlend numbers with minor tweaks here and there. This results in mid to upper 80s across the typical locations in the Lowlands, challenging some record highs. A tightening pressure gradient will mean this warmth will come with some gusty SW winds...with model soundings indicating 20 to 25 kt gusts today. A cold front will be approaching SE OH counties overnight. A band of showers will accompany the baroclinic zone...with showers fading late as the boundary struggles to make much SE progress...likely having only cleared Perry/Morgan by morning. Much of the cloud cover should stay close to the front, but even so, another mild night is in store for everyone.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Tuesday... Models are finally agreeing on the pattern for the upcoming system. A frontal boundary will stall over southern Ohio and northern West Virginia on Wednesday. A low will then move along the front and across the central Appalachians Thursday into Friday morning. Some good instability with the low, so expect some thunderstorms and decent rainfall amounts. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Tuesday... Models start to show some differences behind the system into the beginning of the weekend with the timing of the upper trough. Regardless of the upper energy, with a northwest flow and low level moisture, will let pops linger well into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Tuesday VFR conditions today and this evening with a sct flat cumulus field noted for today. A cold front will approach SE OH by 06Z with a band of showers. This boundary will gradually make it to the northern reaches of the Ohio River by 12Z with shower chances waning. Cigs will lower into MVFR along and just behind the front, but the terminals should remain VFR given the location of the frontal boundary at the end of the taf period. A tight pressure gradient today combined with a good mixing profile, will result in gusty SW winds...on the order of 20 to 25 kts over the area. These winds will slacken after 22Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Typical early morning valley fog possible this week. IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.