Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241707 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 107 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE. FORECAST ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 15Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. .AFTER 06Z MONDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...JMV/SL

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