Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250912 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 512 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... GENERALLY A PRETTY QUIET DAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CAUSE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. SO INTRODUCED LOW POPS...BUT BY AND LARGE MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY TOO...SO A FEW RAINDROPS MAY BE ALL THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY CAN MUSTER. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STALLING TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...HEALTHY THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RIDE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH. THESE LEAVES THE AREA IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PUSH A A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE FAR APART AT THIS TIME. TENDED TO LEAN A BIT MORE ON THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH COLD FRONT AND INTENSE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT ANYTHING STILL GOES...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THIS TIME APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. EURO HAS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC AND STEEPER RIDGING ALOFT OVERHEAD...WHICH WOULD SLOW DOWN THE WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INDICES ON THE EURO ARE MUCH WEAKER ON FRIDAY. GOING WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL INDICES IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME STORMS ARE QUITE STRONG. THE GFS SHOWING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7C/KM. WILL JUST HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THE PATTERN UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AFTER THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM PUSHING IN NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. LLWS JUST MEETS CRITERIA AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLED AND 1000 FT WINDS ARE ABOUT 20-25KT FROM THE SW. LLWS WILL ABATE AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. WINDS INCREASE TO THE G15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY HIT KEKN AS THEY HAVE RADIATED QUITE WELL TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR FOG MAY FORM AROUND KEKN. MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...BUT UNLIKELY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/25/16 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/MPK NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...JW

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