Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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932 FXUS61 KRLX 140535 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1235 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers mainly across the northern portion of the area tonight into Thursday morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1150 PM Wednesday...With wind gusts in the higher elevations possibly reaching as high as 50 mph overnight through Thursday morning, it was decided that a wind advisory will be needed. As of 1125 PM Wednesday...Winds are still running a little higher than previously forecast so decided to bump up wind gusts more using RUC momentum transfer based on forecast mixing heights. This appears to have a good handle on the current situation. Expecting winds to pick up to over 45 mph in the higher elevations over the next few hours as the tightest thermal packing nudges across the mountains. After 15Z that gradient should ease abit based on the model consensus with high pressure quickly moving in behind the system. As of 1005 PM Wednesday... Made some significant increases to the wind gusts tonight based somewhat on what is happening upstream in Ohio. High resolution models are not predicting the same type of momentum transfer in terms of gusts for our area, but 30kts is possible, slightly higher in the highest ridges. As of 220 PM Wednesday... Clipper system moves across north of the area tonight and exits tomorrow morning. Moisture is limited initially and this will limit snow accumulations. The usual upslope areas of the Eastern mountains may see 1-3 inches, elsewhere little or no accumulations. Wind chills will be close to criteria but will hold off for now. System exits quickly tomorrow and should see improvement from west to east throughout the day. Cold high pressure builds into the area Thursday into Thursday night. Another clipper system will pass by well to our north Friday into Friday night. This will limit any precipitation to our northern tier zones and our Eastern mountain upslope areas. Elsewhere should be mainly dry. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... Weak high pressure builds into the area Thursday night ahead of yet another clipper system. This time, the parent low stays up across the Great Lakes with only a dragging weak cold front behind. Behind well south of favorable lake-enhanced low-level moisture transport, only a slight chance of snow is advertised across the northern counties with a low chance across the mountains given a small component of upslope enhancement. Modest warm air advection ahead of the front bump afternoon temperatures across the lowlands above freezing after a cold night in the teens and 20`s. Behind the front, winds turn westerly as opposed to northwesterly, making cold air advection into the area negligible - setting up a slightly warmer Friday night/Saturday morning with lows in the mid-20`s in the lowlands and mid-teens to around 20 F in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Weak high pressure builds again behind the short term period`s clipper system Saturday. Winds near the surface turn southwesterly beginning Saturday morning, warm advecting through the weekend with temperatures reaching into the 30`s/40`s on Saturday and into the 40`s/upper 40`s my Sunday. Models agree on a warm front lifting up through the area Sunday accompanied by scattered rain showers and perhaps a snow/mix upon onset during the morning. The associated cold front moves through by Monday night. Model discrepancies are aplenty beyond this point - from the surface through the upper-levels. The progression of a Rockies trough across the CONUS will dictate sensible conditions through the rest of the period. So, went for a general blend beyond this point with a notable period of possible upslope precipitation during Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1235 AM Thursday... A strong cold front will be passing across the region through the early morning hours today. This front will mostly bring some snow showers across Northern West Virginia and the Northeast Mountains. Snow showers at CKB and EKN are most likely and expecting to see some restrictions in those spots, but confidence is still low on how intense the snow will become. Behind the front we can expect MVFR stratus just about everywhere through the day today, with improving conditions late Thursday afternoon. Tight pressure gradient with the front will also cause very gusty winds through dawn today. Gusts higher than 40 knots will be likely in the mountains and in the lower elevations winds of 30 knots or slightly higher may be possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and snow showers tonight may vary. Winds may gusts stronger than currently forecast at some sites. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 12/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H M M M H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H L L L M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H L M M M H H H H L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H L L M M M H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... Another round of snow is expected across the northern portion of the area on Friday and Friday night, with IFR conditions possible in heavier snow showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ516-518-520-522>524- 526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS/MPK/26 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MPK

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