Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140730 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 330 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather to start the work and school week. High pressure brings drier weather on Wednesday but returning to unsettled pattern to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Monday... Surface trough and upper level ripple/vort max already spewing clouds into the forecast area. Most models in agreement with increasing showers south and east of the Ohio River around sunrise. Have likely POPs across the mountains of WV into SW VA today, with scattered showers across the WV lowlands tapering off to isolated shower mention along the Ohio River. Models -- other than the GFS -- show activity decreasing this evening. But then increasing again overnight as another wave passes. Opted to just go with isolated to scattered wording for showers tonight along and east/south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 AM Monday... Weak impulse early on Tuesday may bring some scattered showers, but high pressure builds for a drier stretch of weather Tuesday night through midday Thursday. A system approaches Thursday afternoon for increased potential for showers/tstorms. Dynamics suggest a small potential for stronger storms, but believe most energy will be to our north for this system.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 320 AM Monday... An organized system moves to our northwest on Friday draping a cold front through our region for showers and tstorms early. High pressure builds Saturday for drier weather until the next system arrives Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Monday... Cirrus on the increase tonight makes the fog forecast a bit difficult. Think the clouds will be thick enough to limit IFR, so just included some MVFR at northern sites where clouds will be thinnest. Also included MVFR at CRW early on, but take it back out as clouds build. Surface trough and upper level disturbance will bring showers today, with the best chance across the coal fields and mountains. Did not include any IFR in this activity. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Dense river valley fog possible if holes linger in clouds. Timing and category in showers today may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H M L M M M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR valley fog possible early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MZ

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