Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300916 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 416 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. A strong cold front pushes east this afternoon. Cooler high pressure to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 415 AM Wednesday... A low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes region this morning. An associated warm front lifts north producing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. A cold front extends south from the low, and is expected to reach the OH river by 18Z. This cold front will bring an increase in intensity of the showers. A tight pressure gradient will produce gusty wind around 30knots higher elevations. High resolution models are in better agreement with synoptic models in the timing of convection associated with this systems. The bulk of the PCPN will move over the eastern mountains with a chance of light snow showers over the eastern mountains tonight. No significant snow accumulations are expected. Plenty of clouds, but strong southwest flow will keep high temperatures in the 60s. Much colder air behind the front will bring lows to the 30s tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Wednesday... Much cooler weather is expected for the end of the work week with slightly below normal temperatures. Most of the area will remain dry, but in the NW flow and with upper trough swinging through, it`s possible that the mountains see some light snow showers. Other than that, it will be a quiet end to the week after the stormy weather we saw the first half. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... After Saturday, forecast confidence drops off considerable with several inconsistencies noted in the operational and ensemble model guidance. The end of the weekend and into Monday have a fairly high probability for rainfall, but the guidance is having trouble resolving how amplified and far south PFJ digs across the Western U.S. This will greatly affect how much rainfall we could receive from a system Sunday into Monday. If flow stays more zonal then we will have little in the way of moisture make it into our region. However, a more amplified pattern will have deep return SW flow and an abundant amount of moisture will be pulled northeast into the region. Hopefully guidance will resolve this better by Thursday after we can actually sample the associated short wave when it enters the Pacific Northwest. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Wednesday... a warm front lifts north bringing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. Convection will continue as the expected cold front cross the area from west to east this afternoon and evening. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible along the heavier showers or storms. The heavier PCPN will affect central and eastern sites through this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected. The actual front will cross the OH river by 18-21Z. VFR conditions expected behind the front. The front will bring gusty southerly winds today, particularly after 14Z, with gusts in the teen to 20 kt range across the lowlands, and in the upper 20 to near 40 kt range in the higher terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of rain and associated restrictions this morning and again tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/30/16 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M L M L HTS CONSISTENCY L H H L M M L M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H L M M L M H H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M L M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY M L H M H M M M H M L L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible with a cold front tonight. IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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