Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161755 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 155 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler into Wednesday, in the wake of a cold front that crossed last night. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the latter part of the work week, and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1120 AM Monday... With the cold front way to our east, northerly flow will continue to bring colder air to the area. A sfc high pressure will build across the OH Valley, WV and the mid Atlantic states through the rest of the week providing dry and cold conditions through the period. Afternoon cu will be common on Tuesday. At night, clear skies, calm winds, dry dewpoints and cold temperatures will allow radiational cooling to drop temperatures below freezing across the northeast and central mountains, and widespread frost across the lowlands. Therefore, issued a Freeze warning for counties from Taylor county, south including Pocahontas and Randolph continuing south into Nicholas county. A Frost advisory has been issued for the rest of the area. Both headlines are from midnight through 10 am Tuesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Monday... High pressure rules the roost this period, with cool, bone dry weather. Heights rise early on, as the upper level short wave trough that drove the cool air into the area, lifts out. For Wednesday, the northern stream jet is well north of the forecast area, the area itself being in a rex block between a northern stream ridge, and southern stream trough. A northern stream trough pushes a cold front across the Great Lakes Wednesday night. The trough and cold front never get as far south as the forecast area. Rather, high pressure behind the cold front bridges across Thursday, resulting in high pressure centered right over the area Thursday night. The end result is to perhaps slow the warming trend. Lowered daytime dew points from central guidance in the very dry air, via a consensus MOS and global model blend, and lowered low temperatures from central guidance via COOP MOS. This yields values similar to previous forecast, with frost likely again Wednesday morning. RH values dip into the 20s Wednesday afternoon, and well down into the 30s Tuesday and Thursday afternoons. However, light winds will limit the fire threat. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 355 AM Monday... High pressure continues to rule the roost Friday, before drifting east over the the weekend. This will continue the dry weather, with a warming trend over the weekend, in southerly flow around the back side of the exiting high. The next cold front is progged to arrive Monday, with the chance for showers, as the driving upper level short wave trough pushes the southern edge of the northern stream jet southward into the forecast area. Central guidance temperatures accepted, but daytime dew points lowered via a consensus MOS and global model blend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Monday... With the cold front east of the mountains, the area remains under northerly flow bringing dry dewpoints, except for some moisture from Lake Erie producing light rain showers to affect CKB and EKN early afternoon. Expect VFR/MVFR ceilings with this activity. The rest of the area will experience diurnal cu about 5000 feet to prevail through the afternoon hours. Generally light northwesterly winds, with occasional gusts in the teens, particularly across the higher terrain. After 00Z, the lower atmosphere should decouple causing light to calm winds, with patchy river valley fog possible generally after 08Z. Temperatures will drop from the mid 30s lowlands to the upper 20s higher elevations. This could produce frost instead of fog. Broad high pressure will prevail through the rest of the week to produce widespread VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Eastern Mountains may not improve to VFR as quickly as forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Patchy valley dense fog during the predawn hours this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ031-032-039-040-519>526. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>030-033-034-515>518. OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ

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