Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 081909 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 209 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Digging upper trough/cold front Saturday/Saturday night, and again early next week after a brief, modest warm up on Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Friday... Bulk of the activity today falls to the south and east of the forecast area with an expansive area of frontogenesis stretching from the lower Mississippi Valley to the mid Atlantic coast. Northwestward extent of the precipitation shield will be dictated by the sheared out vorticity maximum embedded in the 500hPa flow, which will encroach into the far eastern counties/mountains of the CWA into the tonight and early Saturday periods. Carry less than an inch type snowfall accumulations for these areas, and favored the non convective GFS for placement of the POPs. Upper wave digs into the Great Lakes, bringing the next round of snow, which falls largely in the short term forecast period. Setting up for a convective snowfall event with increasing 925-700hPa lapse rates in the 7-8C/km range by 00Z Sunday. This suggests a squall type nature, but again, this will ramp up more in the third period, where the bulk of the accumulations are expected. May warm advect briefly before the arrival of the cold front, so that warranted rain/snow mix in the grids during the afternoon for the lowlands in daytime temps reaching the mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM Friday... A moisture starved cold front will push through the region on Saturday. Nonetheless, it will bring the probability for some scattered snow showers to much of the area. Not expecting much in accumulation through the Lowlands, but can`t rule out a few some spotty areas that see at least a coating of the white stuff. Behind the front on Saturday night we will likely see decent accumulations in the mountains with upper trough swinging through and orographic accent in the NW flow. Generally, at this time it appears 1 to 3 inches looks possible. Conditions will improve through the day Sunday, but temperatures will be well below average behind the front. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 425 AM Friday... We will start the next work week with a brief warmup before another cold front pushes in on Tuesday. Southerly flow out ahead of the front will send temperatures into the mid to upper 40s on Monday, but the rest of the long term looks to return temperatures to well below normal once again. Models are in fairly good agreement with the front and upper trough moving through Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will bring the threat for more snow, with possibly the entire forecast area seeing some light accumulation. GEFS are showing 500mb height anomalies of 3 to 4 standard deviations with the deep upper trough overhead Tuesday night. There looks to be a threat for some potential snow squalls Tuesday evening through the overnight hours. Forecast soundings are indicating steep lapse rates and potential Great Lake moisture filtering in on the north-northwest flow, so we will have to monitor how the timing of the forecast unfolds as this cold impact the Tuesday afternoon commute in some areas. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Friday... Thick cirrus shield to affect the terminals through the bulk of the forecast, but at this point, VFR will prevail with the exception at CRW hanging on to the MVFR stratocumulus for a couple more hours at this point. Beyond 18Z, expect snow showers to move in. Surface winds less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceiling erosion at CRW could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in snow showers Saturday late afternoon and night, mainly in the mountains at night, and then again Monday night through Tuesday, again mainly in the mountains.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26

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