Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261857 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 157 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PRECIPITATION IS FIZZLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AS THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY SLOT IS HOLDING ON OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE IT WILL REMAIN THERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW HAS ENDED IN BKW AND WILL LIFT OUT OF RAND/POCA IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AFTER A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MEANWHILE...OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVES A PATH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE...AND FIGURE THAT WILL GO AGAINST THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROJECTIONS. THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FROM MCDOWELL INTO RAND/POCA COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS DROP TOWARDS THE -10C MARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...AND IN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO INCREASE. USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND LIKEWISE FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...NOT MUCH TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT EXITING THE AREA BY 03Z TONIGHT. HAVE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ONE THE SNOW ENDS AT EACH TERMINAL. GUIDANCE WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON THE VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...SO TRENDED MVFR OR BETTER. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO EKN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW LIFTING OUT AND IMPROVING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT HERE OR THERE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L L M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H L L L L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ032-037>040. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046- 047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26/JW NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26

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