Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 281845 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 245 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO. DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO. AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW. HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL PASS THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS MAY VARY...BUT HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. PWATS SURGE UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL ALSO GET A POOLING OF PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PUSHING THEM UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AGAIN. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL PATTERNS...AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. SHOULD GET SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IT SOME. HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING. THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE CONVECTION...THAT CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY SHOWN IN THE POINT TAFS. WILL PUT TSTMS IN VCNTY IN THE TAFS...UNTIL WE SEE THE STORMS THREATENING THE TERMINAL. EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 30 TO 34 THSD...FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11 THSD. COULD EASILY SEE SOME SEVERE...AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. HAVE LOCAL IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN TO OVC. 00Z TO 06Z...THUNDERSTORMS WANE BUT SHOWERS LINGER. LOW CEILINGS FORMING. 06Z TO 14Z...FIGURING MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...AND THUS FORECASTING MORE 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG...INSTEAD OF THE AOB 1 MILE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND LOWER VSBY MAY VARY. RAIN INDUCED FOG COULD FORM EARLIER THAN FORECAST TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-026>030-037>039-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-076- 083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KTB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.