Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251108 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 708 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge crosses today and tonight. A strong cold front will cross late Monday, setting us up with more autumn-like temperatures for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 AM Sunday... Forecast on track. As of 430 AM Sunday... High pressure northeast of the area slowly drifts farther away, while an upper level ridge crosses this period. Low level flow veering from east to southeast will brings stratus and light rain or drizzle along the eastern slopes of the Central Appalachians, but the tranquil weather with mainly clear sky will continue elsewhere. Temperatures were close to guidance so not much change needed, as the slightly cooler weather introduced yesterday continues. Temperatures continue to run above normal though. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 430 AM Sunday... Strong cold front will move through the region on Monday...exiting to the east Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms...will develop across the area on Monday...particularly across WV and southwest VA based on frontal timing. There is the possibility that a few storms could be strong to severe on deep layer west- southwesterly winds increase to 40+kts. SPC has placed much of WV and SW VA counties in a marginal risk for Monday. Have added wording to the HWO to mention the strong-dmg wind threat for Monday. Frontal boundary will be to the east of the CWA Monday night...with gradual clearing taking place behind the front. Remainder of the short term period looks to be upper low/trough deepens across the eastern U.S. There could be periods of cloud or showers...particularly across the north at times before the low finally moves off the coast by late week...but much of the time should remain dry. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 340 PM Friday... While the operational models are at least consistent with a stout upper low bringing a cold front through in the short term portion of the forecast, the evolution of the upper low beyond that in the extended is where forecast spread comes into play. The ECMWF continues to bring the upper low south into the central Appalachians, with it oscillating around that general area through the end of the week. The GFS brings a similar track to an extent...but eventually has it become an open wave and exiting our area by Friday. This makes the grids challenging because of a GFS specific trough axis dropping in and creating more defined areas of potential precipitation while the ECMWF will be more involved with less specific forcing details. Crossing fingers for increased model run consistency in the coming days to sharpen up this part of the forecast. Will keep the cooler trend going through the period regardless with low end POPs. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 AM Sunday... Fog and stratus over the eastern valleys of WV will burn off by 14Z this morning, although morning cu in the mountains may persist much of the day once it this morning. It may break up this evening, only to reform overnight tonight. Out across the lowlands, a VFR day is expected once any early morning fog is gone, and any valley fog should be mainly MVFR. Light northeast surface flow will veer to light east to southeast tonight. Light northwest flow aloft today will back to light southwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of stratocu in the mountians may vary. Fog formation and intensity may vary tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M L L H H M H H M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Low stratus possible over the mountains Monday night. Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Thursday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.