Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201359 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 959 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Airmass thunderstorms expected today with more widespread storms late tonight as a cold front crosses the region. Front lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Thursday... Made minor adjustments to pops and clouds for later this morning and early afternoon, following trends on radar and satellite. Remaining forecast on track as we watch for the arrival of a front from the west for the overnight hours. Figure most convective development today will be isold to sct variety as daytime heating kicks in, and we will watching to see where these fire as weak to marginal instability and shear in place across the cwa this afternoon. Best chances for development appear to be in the eastern mountains this afternoon and then spreading in from west as front makes its approach in the overnight. This already covered with current forecast trends. As of 350 AM Thursday... Going to be another hot and fairly muggy day for April standards across most of the area today. A stationary boundary is currently located just west of Elkins and extends to the WSW through Central West Virginia. With max heating today we could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of the boundary, but dry air aloft will be a limiting factor and not expecting widespread until later tonight. Guidance is a fairly good agreement, showing a cold front pushing into the Ohio Valley close to midnight. This front will pack quite a punch to our west where it will pass around max heating this afternoon. However, a line of thunderstorms will persist into this evening and will continue to weaken as it heads eastward with the loss of diurnal heating. By the time it reaches the Ohio Valley, CAPE values will be in the range of 500 to 800 J/Kg, but 0-6 km shear will still be around 35 to 40 knots, so some damaging winds may be possible. SPC currently keeps us in a marginal risk simply due to the uncertainty with how quickly these storms weaken tonight. The best chance to see severe weather in our area will be across Southeast Ohio and we have highlighted this in the HWO. Elsewhere however, we can just expect mostly heavy rain showers and some thunderstorms through the early morning hours on Friday with the front clearing the area after 12Z Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Thursday... The cold front will moves south southeast taking all pcpn to the eastern mountains and extreme southern coalfields of WV by Friday 12Z. Kept likely PoPs over the northwest slopes and eastern mountain per slower ECMWF model Friday morning. The front stalls south of the area and then returns north as a warm front to bring unstable conditions and showers or storms through the weekend. A sfc low pressure system then moves from west to east along KY and VA to enhance lifting over southern WV Sunday. With available low level moisture, pwats around 1.4 inches showers and storms will be possible mainly across extreme southern WV and extreme southwest VA into early Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... Drier and cool air filters from the north northeast to bring pleasant conditions by the end of the weekend. Shortwave trough aloft lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes Tuesday night, so the rain from that system should stay north. Broad upper level trough sets up over the intermountain west, with a new baroclinic zone developing northwest of our CWA. Should stay dry until a surface low departs from the southern plains, while we get back into a warming trend. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Thursday... Not too many changes since my previous discussion 5 hours ago so have left mostly as is. A stationary front will remain over the area through the day today and a cold front starts to push in from the NW tonight. There will be few showers today and isolated thunderstorms are looking more likely, especially across the Eastern Half of West Virginia. Still appears like we will see more widespread shower and storm activity with the cold front late tonight. Mostly VFR conditions through the day today, but can`t rule out some restrictions with stray showers storms this afternoon. Also, depending on the timing of the cold front tonight, we will likely start to see MVFR to possibly brief IFR conditions arriving into the Ohio Valley by midnight. The storms will weaken as they head east early Friday morning. Possibly may see low stratus after the front passes as well. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR and maybe IFR could occur with rain showers or possibly thunderstorms this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR possible Saturday into Sunday with another wave of low pressure.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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