Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221451 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1051 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak cold front exits the eastern mountains today. High pressure builds behind the front, then low pressure and unsettled conditions return as early as Tuesday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1050 AM Monday... Radar still showing some lingering showers in the mountains with other locations rain free. Visible satellite imagery highlights clearing north of the Ohio River. Expect rain to taper off in the next few hours and clearing to slowly overspread the area as a surface high slowly slides northeast across Ohio. Until the pressure gradient relaxes more, could see occasional gusts on the order of 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of an upper trof to our west. While there are questions as to how far the moisture will reach, will carry PoPs south of the Ohio River with the best chance of showers in the mountains. As of 300 AM Monday... Satellite and radar images, and sfc obs suggested that the cold front was located along southeast OH at 3 AM, moving slowly east. The showers and storms activity along the cold front have decreased considerably overnight. Kept previous PoPs as they denoted a decreasing trend and have lingering showers over the east. The latest is supported by the high resolution model solutions. High pressure builds behind the cold front to bring clear skies and dry air mass to the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Not too many changes in the overall forecast. Weak low pressure will pass to our south and east on Tuesday with the best forcing remaining well to our east. I did bring in a chance for showers with highest PoP in the mountains, but guidance is in good agreement with keep any heavy rain in Central Virginia. Deep upper trough digs over the region on Wednesday. Strong surface low tracks up the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the region Wednesday night. This will spread widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms into our area, but with relatively low PWAT values we are not expecting any issues with flooding. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Start the period with deep upper trough overhead and then sliding east of the area Thursday night. There will be a chance for a few showers on Thursday, but brief ridging start to build in later in the day. The pattern turns zonal thereafter and several waves move through the flow that will keep conditions unsettled through the weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1050 AM Monday... No significant changes this morning. MVFR or better cigs continue for most terminals, but clearing line is now approaching the Ohio River. Tried to time scattering/lifting cigs based on satellite trends. Relaxing pressure gradient will allow winds to go light to calm tonight, although a gust or two this afternoon on the order of 10 to 15 kts is possible. With high pressure just to our north, light winds, and antecedent moisture from rain, expect some valley fog to develop. Introduced into TAFs starting between 23/0400Z and 23/0600Z, although guidance is still inconsistent on coverage and intensity of fog. Will address more in the 22/1800Z issuance. As of 630 AM Monday... Radar images and sfc obs show a weakening cold front moving east of the OH River attm. Plenty of MVFR clouds are in place, but will begin to dissipate by early afternoon as dry and cool air mass filters behind the cold front. Sfc obs at PKB, HTS and CRW have veer from the northwest behind the front. Expect some clearing this afternoon and evening. By late tonight, weak boundary layered winds, clearing and enough low level moisture will allow for areas of dense fog during the predawn hours Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could be lower than expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Dense fog is possible Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/DTC NEAR TERM...ARJ/DTC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ/DTC

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