Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310221 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPDATE... MORE ELIMINATION OF THE POPS...BUT STILL CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHTS. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TLC FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS DUE TO A LACK OF OBVIOUS TRIGGERING MECHANISMS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VORTICITY LOBE AND 850 MB JET SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY. WILL RAISE POPS ALONG THESE FEATURES...BUT OTHERWISE KEEP A FAIRLY GENERIC DIURNAL TREND.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF FRONT AS THE UPPER TROF HANGS BACK. IT NOW APPEARS BEST SHOT OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY E OF OH RIVER. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN BY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST HANDLING CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER DEEP S. KEPT SOME MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN THRU THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONVECTION COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE TSRA CHANCES IN ON SUNDAY. ONCE THE LOW IS EAST OF THE CWA...A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW WITH A WIND SHIFT...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HAVE LARGELY LEFT OUT FOG CHANCES TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED BRIEF RIVER VALLEY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. .AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR IN CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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