Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191802 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 102 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure pushes into the region tonight. Active pattern returns with a warm front crossing Friday followed by a stronger system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM Thursday... Forecast remains on track for the most part this morning although clouds are eroding a bit slower than previously forecast. Low clouds have been diminishing from south to north but with dirty ridge we will likely keep mid and upper level clouds today, so although we will see some sunshine it will be filtered. Depending how thick this upper level deck is, I may need to adjust high temperatures downward a couple degrees with a later update. For now I have updated sky cover based on current METSAT and observations. As of 615 AM Thursday... Several forecast challenges through the near term period. The first is the clouds through this morning. Currently have low stratus in place across much of CWA, however southern edge is slowly eroding. Continued this trend, relying fairly heavily on the 4kNAM. Even as the low clouds erode, cirrus is already spreading over the forecast area ahead of surface warm front and upper level negatively tilted trough that will arrive tonight. And that is the second forecast challenge -- timing precip with the system overnight. Did not make any huge changes to previous forecast, although did revise timing and tried to tighten the leading gradient used a blend of the 4kNAM and WRFnmm. Have an area of likely POPs entering from the SW around 00Z tonight, and transitioning NE across the forecast area overnight. Generally have 0.2-0.3 inches of rain with this. Held off on any mention of thunder due to the time of day, but with decent upper level support would not be overly surprised to get a rumble or two. Although it does look like better upper level support may be lagging behind by a couple hours. Expecting a mild day today, with the pattern of above normal highs continuing. Have temps dropping a little late this evening, but then rebounding some through the pre-dawn hours of Friday as WAA kicks in. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Thursday... Warm front lifts north on Friday for another round of precipitation with 0.25" of QPF expected and temperatures still remaining well above normal. In between systems Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM Thursday... Deepening 979 mb low approaches from the south on Sunday night with its trajectory just to our east leaving the area in the comma head which could lay down a line of high QPF amounts and this bears watching for flooding concerns. At the same time, cold air begins to wrap around the system from the north and snow may be a concern especially in the mountains. Snow showers should linger into Tuesday in the mountains while it still looks warm enough for rain elsewhere. Weak front brushes the area Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1255 PM Thursday... Still some MVFR and IFR ceilings holding on across the north this afternoon. However, the stratus continues to erode and should see PKB and CKB come up within the next hour or two. A warm front that is currently stationed across Central Tennessee will continue to push northward this evening. This will spread mid level ceilings across the area at first, but decks will lower after midnight from south to north. Look for mostly MVFR conditions with rain through the morning hours Friday. Although current TAFs don`t contain IFR tomorrow morning, it is possible that in the heavier pockets of rain we will see IFR for ceiling and visibilities. Conditions will start to improve towards the end of the forecast period once the warm front pushes through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thresholds lower ceilings and visibilities tomorrow morning with approaching warm front may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR will be possible again Sunday through Monday as another system passes to our south. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK

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