Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221855 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak disturbances drop southeast into Saturday. Front stalls in Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Latest radar mosaic shows showers/storms were moving/developing southeast across our southeast Ohio...Northeast Kentucky and along the Ohio River in West Virginia. These storms appear to be the result of an upper level disturbance which is moving toward the area. This feature is expected to generally remain west of our forecast area. However... models suggest these storms could continue to mainly impact our western counties into the late evening hours. Precipitable water values top 2 inches along and west of the Ohio River, indicating downpours are also possible in any thunderstorms. Did not make any major changes for the overnight period. While most of the storms should dissipate before midnight...an isolated storm or two could continue during the overnight hours. Saturday could be the hottest day of the year so far. Latest temp guidance is warmer than our previous forecast for highs and have tweaked our MaxT grid up a degree or two. Felt our forecasted dewpoint temps may have been a little high...so have tweaked them down. Current thinking is that heat indices will top out between 100 and 105 Saturday afternoon across our western counties. Only fly in the ointment would be debris clouds from overnight that may act to keep daytime temps down. Have issued a Heat Advisory for portions of southeast Ohio... northeast Kentucky and the western counties of West Virginia.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The heat wave will continue this weekend with temperatures reaching the lower 90s. Models show a dry column through the period with some moisture at the mid levels and high sfc CAPE values. Can no ruled out low chance for showers and storms by Sunday afternoon. A weak cold front becomes stationary in the vicinity to our north. Convective complexes can develop under northwest flow. Remnants of these complexes can dig southeast while diminishing in intensity. This will bring debris clouds to the area. Despite the clouds, temperatures will climb again Sunday mainly lowlands. Moisture and hot temperatures can make heat index to climb into the 100s this weekend. Went with the superblend guidance for temperatures through the period. Continued advertising possible heat advisories for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... It will turn more unsettled early next week with the arrival of a frontal boundary coupled with a s/w trof passage. These features will make a run toward the area later on Monday with convection chances increasing thru the afternoon and especially into the evening hours. The upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere. This will keep the unsettled pattern going thru Tuesday as the the front will be in no hurry to push through. With the light flow and high pwats...some slow moving downpours are in the cards. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Monday. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... Latest radar mosaic continues to indicate scattered showers and storms with MVFR...local IFR...conditions were pushing across southeast Ohio. Outside of the area...vfr conditions prevailed. An upper level disturbance will push southeast into the nighttime hours. As a result...the storms should continue to move/develop southeast during the afternoon hours. The best chance will be along and west of the Ohio River, and have continued VCTS on the PKB and HTS TAFs into the evening hours. Models still fairly insistent on fog formation tonight, but think there will be enough remnant clouds around to allow for dense fog formation. Have generally gone with 6sm br between 08Z and 12Z everywhere...with some 3-5sm br in favored river valleys...at places like CRW/EKN. VFR conditions are expected after 13Z...with isolated storms possible after 15Z. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to expand VCTS this afternoon and evening. Dense river valley fog may form tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>029. OH...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103- 105. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/30 NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JSH

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