Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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732 FXUS61 KRLX 280024 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 824 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream systems. The current system crosses tonight into Tuesday, and then another crosses late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Monday... A weak front remains stalled from west to east, along the Ohio River between Ohio and Kentucky, eastward through central WV, this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms were firing up south of the front, especially over eastern Kentucky, aided by a weak upper level disturbance, a moisture feed from the southwest impinging upon the front, and surface heating. All of this was leading to an effective bulk shear axis of 40-45 kts extending up through eastern Kentucky, along with 1000-1500 J/KG of CAPE. This has resulted in an earlier / faster severe weather threat, in concert with the eastward forecast trends from SPC. North of the front, low level moisture has kept heating to a minimum, helping to maintain a stout stable layer there until the front moves north in increasing low level south to southwest flow ahead of the main system approaching from the west this evening. The main system arrives tonight, after the loss of daytime heating. While this may temper the severe threat somewhat, associated organized convection associated with the main upper level short wave trough, over the middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon, may still pose a wind and excessive water threat, to the degree it is able to hold together. The system pulls off to the east Tuesday afternoon, leaving low level moisture in the form of low clouds in its wake. Near term temperature guidance resulted in slightly higher values in the warm sector tonight, wet-bulbing into the mid and upper 50s in the lowlands again, and slightly lower highs Tuesday versus the previous forecast and the latest MET/MAV. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Monday... Cold front moves away from the region with high pressure building in from the north. In response...precipitation chances should come to an end by late Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 PM Monday... Another system approaches the area for Friday bringing precipitation chances back into the region. This system should then push east Friday night with high pressure building in again Saturday Night and Sunday. Expect chances for showers and storms will decrease from the west on Saturday with the region expected to be dry Saturday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 755 PM Monday... An upper level trough, and its associated surface low pressure system and cold front, will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect VFR ceilings with isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of an initial band of organized showers and thunderstorms this evening, with mainly MVFR within this band along with possible gusty winds; although some brief IFR VSBY is also likely. Timing of the initial band has it moving eastward across the area between 01Z and 08Z, Behind this band will be an area of mainly rain showers and mostly MVFR conditions. Most of the rain showers will move east of the Ohio River by 13Z Tuesday with the front, and exit the low lands by 17Z Tuesday, with lingering mountain upslope rain showers through much of the afternoon. Look for MVFR conditions to gradually improve from west to east after 15Z. Prevailing winds outside of thunderstorms will be southerly 3 to 7 KTS overnight, then becoming westerly 6 to 12 KTS behind the front during Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms this evening may be an hour or two faster than forecast. There may be some post- rain IFR fog and stratus later tonight into Tuesday morning, especially if the winds go near calm. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 03/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JMV

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