Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161702 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1251 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure through the weekend and most of next week, providing warm afternoons and cool nights.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Saturday... A high pressure system will remain over the area. Low level moisture is trapped under the high however, possible allowing for some afternoon showers in the WV mountains. Expect some dense fog to form again tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 AM Saturday... Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will lead to slightly above normal afternoon temperatures with near normal lows. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible both Sunday and Monday afternoon, mainly across the mountains. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 AM Saturday... Weak high pressure continues through the bulk of the long term forecast with highs running just above normal for mid to late September. Models show indications of a upper level ripple or two drifting by, but hard to time these so have kept POPs on the low side of a consensus blend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1250 PM Saturday... VFR cumulus can be expected this afternoon. Some showers could form this afternoon in the northern and central mountains of WV, providing a brief restriction. Expect VFR conditions early this evening, but dense valley fog will quickly form tonight. The fog will burn off by mid morning Sunday, with a VFR cumulus deck once again forming. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Scattered showers in the northern and central WV mountains this afternoon are not included in the TAFs due to their limited coverage. Timing of fog formation tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR expected in morning river valley fog Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...RPY

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