Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 310551 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 151 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... RAIN MOVING IN OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST HOLD ON THINGS FOR NOW. SOME LIGHTNING EVIDENT...BUT ALL IN ALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AS THIS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CWA OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR. NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VERY COMPLEX TAFS TODAY GIVEN THE UNSETTLED SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BRINGING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRIED TO USE AS MUCH PREVAILING SHRA AS POSSIBLE...AND ALSO TRIED TO PEG THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WITH PEAK HEATING TODAY UTILIZING THE PROB30 WORDING IN THE TAFS. THIS TIMING HAS A LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTACHED TO IT. AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT AN MVFR STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COULD LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES UNTIL THIS LAYER DISSOLVES...AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT PKB AND HTS. LATER TONIGHT...AS THE CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER. AS THIS HAPPENS THE CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INCREASE AS WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA IS IN QUESTION. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/31/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M M M M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR IN DENSE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...26

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