Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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705 FXUS61 KRLX 220538 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 138 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level trough keeps clouds showers and clouds around into Saturday. High pressure late Saturday into Sunday. Re-enforcing moisture-starved cold front Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 137 AM Saturday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 1040 pm Friday... Forecast on track with slow overnight improvement from the west. As of 810 PM Friday... Forecast on track with moist, chilly air in place on back side of exiting low pressure system. As of 130 PM Friday... Upper level trough centered right over CWA early this afternoon, with showers across the east drifting north, and rain across west drifting southeast. This trough is starting to become more negatively tilted, and we are seeing some development of the rain across SE Ohio due to this. Expect an area of moderate rain drifting westward across the CWA into tonight. Generally thinking around 0.5 inch of additional rain with this. 850mb temps starting to crash as cold air arrives. This should keep clouds and some precipitation around through much of the night across the eastern half of the CWA. With 850mb temps dropping below 0C overnight, expect highest elevations to see a gradual switch over to snow instead of rain. Moisture is becoming pretty limited by this time, but think the highest ridges could get a dusting of snow accumulation...mainly on grass and elevated surfaces. The 850mb temperature trough maxes out from 12Z-15Z, after which any lingering precipitation in the mountains should end with just an isolated shower possible Saturday. Clouds will gradually break up from west to east through the day as surface high pressure begins nosing in from the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Friday... Broad upper ridge and surface high pressure dominate the region this period with dry weather. Temperatures will be on the rebound Sunday, after a chilly Saturday night, as the surface high pressure center slides east and allows southwesterly winds and abundant sunshine to boost temperatures well into the 60s Sunday. Sunday night will also see a warmup with southerly flow persisting. There may be a band of clouds Saturday night and early Sunday to herald in the warmer air. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... The upper ridge continues to dominate Monday into Wednesday with dry weather. There will be just enough northwest flow aloft to drive a moisture starved cool front southeastward across our area early Monday. However, cooling behind the front will be modest at best, with the net effect of bringing temperatures to near normal readings for this time of year for early next week. Thereafter, guidance is in pretty good agreement in bringing a frontal system into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday with rain chances increasing. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 137 AM Saturday... With a low pressure system exiting to the northeast, gusty north to northwest flow will continue to bring light rain showers or drizzle to the northeast mountains at least through 12Z. Under north northwest flow, IFR ceilings should continue at BKW overnight. The same effect could happen at EKN, but intermittent light showers could affect expected conditions. Otherwise, MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Drier air will filter into the area during the day on Saturday, with the help of daytime mixing and the approach of high pressure. Any dense fog or low stratus overnight should gradually dissipate by mid morning with widespread VFR conditions spreading from west to east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR possible in drizzle, especially in the mountains, overnight into early Saturday morning. While confidence is high in an improving trend during the day on Saturday, the timing may vary. Wind gusts will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. Missing. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR in valley fog possible Sunday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.