Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200208 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1008 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night. Front lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1010 PM Wednesday... Reduced POPs a bit more overnight, just keeping some isolated to scattered showers along the trajectory of the showers currently on radar. As of 145 PM Wednesday... Most of the shower activity has kept to the southern coalfields this afternoon with little to no lightning activity noted. Instability has been marginal at best, and clouds have helped suppress heating, keeping any surfaced based development at bay. Thus, rainfall amounts have been light, even with the higher dbz returns on cells. Clouds will keep overnight mins up Thursday morning. Will see some increase in instability on Thursday ahead of approaching cold front. This will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. However, coverage will still likely remain in the chance category.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Focus will be on the pronged rainfall potential over the middle Ohio Valley heading into the weekend, with a cold front passage stalling south of the area, returning north as a warm front and stalling once again over the CWA with the surface low moving west to east. Extensive frontogenesis will keep the uplift going in the baroclinic zone, with PWAT values pushing the 1.10 inch range. SPC has the area marked for only general thunderstorms, but with WPC taking the 1-5 day rainfall totals into the 3-4 inch range over the southern CWA, water will be the main concern. Will have to see how areas recently hit hard this past weekend recover, and what areas receive priming amounts from the frontal passage before it retreats back north. Vertical profiles do indicate that it could be tough to realize all of the precipitable water heading into Saturday, but the flow aloft parallel to the surface boundary will keep the rounds of showers and storms moving through. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 PM Wednesday... Surface low finally exits Saturday night, pulling the rain out Sunday, bringing a drier period back into play. Shortwave trough aloft lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes Tuesday night, so the rain from that system should stay north. Broad upper level trough sets up over the intermountain west, with a new baroclinic zone developing northwest of our CWA. Should stay dry until a surface low departs from the southern plains, while we get back into a warming trend. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 720 PM Wednesday... Some MVFR possible in clouds across the mountains tonight. Cannot rule out an isolated shower drifting through as well. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday...especially across the mountains so included VCTS. Flow should be south to southwest through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief IFR may occur with heavier rain showers or possibly thunderstorms on Thursday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, as a cold front approaches, and then in stratus behind the front overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. IFR also possible Saturday into Sunday with another wave of low pressure.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/26 NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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