Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 141837 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 137 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A front straddles the area through Sunday and into next week. An organized cold front comes through mid-week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Saturday... The next area of rain currently moving into the area. Thankfully most places have warmed above freezing...thus the freezing rain advisory has been cancelled. This final impulse will move out tonight with the old frontal boundary riding its coat tails out of here. In its wake drier and colder air will be trying its hardest to advect south into the area late tonight. This should allow the low stratus to scatter out across portions of southeast OH and northern WV which could result in dense fog or freezing fog forming along with some black ice as surface temps fall into the 20s. Will pass along concern to evening shift for perhaps an SPS to address this. Elsewhere...a period of drizzle will be realized after the system departs with low stratus and fog hanging tough into the morning hours. This will gradually break up as the day progresses on Sunday with some sunshine being realized across the north. This will be temporary as mid and high clouds build in from the west ahead of the next isentropic lift system.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday... Pesky frontal boundary should be sinking south of the CWA to start the period with only some low end POPs across the south. POPs will begin increasing Sunday afternoon as the front oscillates back north as a warm front. Should cross Sunday night into Monday with rain. Surface temperatures in Perry and Morgan County in SE Ohio and possibly along the eastern slopes of the WV mountains will be near freezing as the precip moves in. Confidence is rather low on how everything will line up, but did include potential for freezing rain in the HWO for Perry and Morgan Counties where temperatures will be the most conducive to potential freezing rain. Should dry out some late Monday into Monday night as the front heads north. However do linger some slight chance to low chance POPs as a cold front is already approaching from the west late Monday night. Temperatures will run above normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday... Stuck fairly close to a consensus blend for the extended. An upper low will cross the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night, and quickly move east Wednesday. The GFS is a good bit faster than the ECMWF with this. At any rate, this upper low will drive a cold front through with rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Beyond this, upper level NW flow behind the system keeps at least some low POPs in the forecast into Wednesday night before ridging starts developing. Have POPs increasing some toward the end of the week with the GFS showing a low lifting out of the Southern Plains. The ECMWF tries to keep the storm track south...and us drier to tend the work week. Not a big cold punch behind the front...with temperatures remaining above normal through the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 115 PM Saturday... Widespread IFR or worse conditions will continue through tonight across the area. One final area of rain is moving into the area as of 18Z and will allow vsby to improve out of VLIFR...but still staying below IFR. Cigs may improve a bit as well but will stay IFR or LIFR. This system will move out of the area this evening along with the old frontal boundary as the flow turn more northwesterly. A period of drizzle is expected following the frontal passage. As such we do not anticipate any improvement with cigs or vsby execpt for northern taf sites as drier air will try to advect in from the north...making it into southeast OH and northern WV late. However, this will only increase the dense fog potential should the low stratus scatter out. Drier air will continue to slowly advect south Sunday morning...allowing for a slow improvement into MVFR at KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving conditions at northen taf site may vary several hours. Dense fog may not form is low stratus holds there overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M L M M M L L L L M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M L L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M L L L M L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY M L L M M L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Saturday night and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry mix, especially north.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ066-067-076. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...30

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