Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171405 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1005 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure with cool mornings and warm afternoons, with temperatures moderating through the weekend. A cold front crosses on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Tuesday... No changes needed with the morning update. Dense river valley fog will dissipate within the hour. Main forecast conundrum in the near term will be temperatures tonight. I will be closely interrogating afternoon dewpoints to gauge a base for lows tonight and any subsequent headlines. We will also be looking at potentially dropping some mountain counties from the growing program. As of 250 AM Tuesday... No significant changes necessary to the previous forecast. High pressure in control with dry conditions. Dew points have not fallen as much as previously forecast, so not as widespread of a frost/freeze as expected, with dense valley river fog starting to develop, as evident on satellite and airport observations. Once fog burns off, expecting a mostly sunny day, a few degrees warmer than Monday. Another cool night on tap tonight, with dense river valley fog, and patchy frost expected. Will allow the day shift to reevaluate whether any additional frost headlines will be necessary for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 620 AM Tuesday... No updates necessary. As of 420 AM Tuesday... A weak upper level short wave trough crosses Wednesday night. However, with very dry air in place, and surface high pressure in control, reinforced by another on Thursday, the dry weather continues. An upper level ridge crosses Friday, as surface high pressure drifts slowly east of the area. Central guidance temperatures reflect a slowing of the warming trend, on account of the short wave trough and reinforcing high. Valley frost is again possible Thursday morning, but temperatures down to or below freezing in the northern mountain valleys will be isolated at best. Minimum RH values will dip into the 20s in parts of the area Wednesday afternoon, with 30s again widespread Thursday afternoon, becoming more confined to the mountains for Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM Tuesday... Upper level and surface ridging move off the east coast this weekend, allowing an upper level trough and surface cold front to approach from the west Sunday night. Models were converging on a Monday passage of the cold front, along with full latitude amplification of the upper level trough. The front spells a high chance for showers, and perhaps thunder, on Monday. After drying out behind the front Monday night, the slowing, deepening upper level trough over the area spells lots of clouds, and the chance for showers, on Tuesday. Central guidance reflects a warm weekend on tap, followed hy temperatures falling back to normal early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 620 AM Tuesday... VLIFR river valley fog through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR with light surface winds. VLIFR valley fog developing again tonight after 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Less fog may develop tonight than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning this week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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