Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRLX 260532
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1232 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
Turning colder for the rest of this weekend. Warmer with upper
level disturbances and rain showers next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1010 PM Saturday...
Forecast in good shape this evening. No changes needed attm.
As of 645 PM Saturday...
Inserted scattered flurries across the northern half of the CWA
for this evening...transitioning to snow showers in the
northern mountains where an inch may accumulate overnight in the
higher elevations. Timed the exodus of stratocu based on WAA
timing in the low levels. This allows southern areas to see
clearing tonight with the remainder of the area clearing out
rapidly Sunday morning from southwest to northeast. Winds will
very gradually diminish in the lowlands tonight but still
remaining quite gusty in the mountains...with some highest
ridges likely gusting above 40 kts at times.
As of 115 PM Saturday...
Cold front will continue to move east and out of the area late
this afternoon. Rain showers will exit as well. Much colder air
is on tap for tonight and tomorrow with temperatures dipping
into the 20s over much of the area...with some teens in the
colder valleys of the northern mountains. H500 trof will swing
through tonight. This will keep the chance for snow showers or
flurries with brisk WNW winds in the forecast for upslope areas
of our eastern mountains overnight tonight. High pressure
quickly builds over the area tomorrow bringing plenty of
sunshine, but much cooler temperatures.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Saturday...
High confidence in the first half of the short term forecast
with cool and dry high pressure centered over the region. Clouds
will be on the increase on Monday as a warm front lifts
northward through West Virginia. During the day Monday we should
remain mostly dry. Model guidance is spitting out some light QPF
for Monday, however low levels are quite dry and QPF may be a
bit overdone. Current thinking is that we may see a few
sprinkles and VIRGA during the day and for now I decided to just
go with slight chance to low chance PoP in the forecast. With
the cloud cover, we will see low temps much warmer Monday night
as most areas should remain in the low 40s.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Saturday...
Not much changes from the previous forecast. Very warm
conditions once again for the area as we head into the middle of
the week under deep southwesterly flow. However, flow amplifies
with deep upper trough starting to dig over the Central U.S.
late Wednesday and progressing east through the remainder of the
Guidance shows intense low pressure tracking across the Great
Lakes and driving a strong cold front across the area Thursday.
This will continue our roller coaster weather as temperatures
turn much colder for the end of the work week with possibly some
snow on tap for next Friday.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Sunday...
Stratocumulus to gradually dissolve overnight, lingering at CKB
and EKN thru 22Z. Some MVFR expected on the front end for EKN
and BKW in terms of the ceilings, with light snow at 6SM. Wind
gusts to subside below 15kts by 16-18Z. VFR expected through the
remainder of the period with no ceilings and only few to
scattered clouds expected above FL200.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN/CKB/BKW MVFR ceilings could fluctuate
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/26/17
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.