Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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612 FXUS61 KRLX 171743 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 143 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid today. Cold front tonight into Friday. Generally drier afterwards until Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1220 PM Thursday...Updated PoP to reflect on current radar and trends, as isolated showers are popping up across the east and more numerous showers now developing across the Ohio Valley. As of 930 AM Thursday...Ran an update to decrease cloud cover this morning and lowered PoP until later this afternoon. Current guidance is showing a weak prefrontal trough that will push through early this afternoon into the early evening hours. Should at least see scattered showers and thunderstorms pop up with this feature and with PWATs close to 2", high freezing level, and long skinny CAPE profiles these showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Later tonight the cold front will enter the Ohio Valley between 8 and 10 PM and push across the region. The best shear and dynamics with this front is still going to be off to our north, but if the front can arrive early enough and can tap into the better instability, then there is some concern that some storms may contain strong gusty winds across our far Northwestern Zones. As of 645 AM Thursday... Clouds will be on the increase early this morning as a surface and upper level low move through the Northern Plains. The first impulse associated with the upper air feature should kick off showers and thunderstorms across the Tri-state mid morning, with activity drifting NE through the afternoon. Decent instability across the area with the hot and humid air in place -- MLCape should be in the 1000-1500J/kg range. The CAPE profile is rather skinny and shear of 20-30kts is fairly marginal for strong to severe storms. However, with precipitable water values topping 2 inches, heavy rain is likely in mature convection. Flash flood guidance is generally 1.5-2.5 inches across the forecast area. The most likely area of heavy rain today -- across the Ohio River Valley and western lowlands of WV -- corresponds to the higher FFG so not planning a flash flood watch. Still...cannot rule out isolated issues with repetitive storms. Tonight, we should have a line of showers and thunderstorms move from west to east ahead of a cold front. Instability drops off quickly 00Z Friday, but precipitable water remains on the high side... so again strong to severe storms not expected but heavy rainfall is likely. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Thursday... What remains of a cold front crosses the CWA Friday for scattered showers. A weak upper level wave brushes the northern CWA over the weekend though high pressure will likely keep the rest of the area rain free and warm. High pressure continues Sunday for dry weather area wide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... High pressure continues Monday for dry weather area wide. Moisture will increase Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. The cold front crosses Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon. There may be brief lull before another line of showers and storms pushing through late this evening through tonight with a passing cold front. Brief IFR will be possible just about anywhere if a shower or storm moves overhead. For now have only included IFR at CRW and PKB based on current storms on Radar moving towards the airfields. Behind the front there may be some low stratus early Friday morning. Conditions should improve to VFR again tomorrow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Will likely need amendments for IFR in storms today through tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...MPK

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