Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210732 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 332 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED. FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME. THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z ON THE 22ND. W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/21/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M L H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H L L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H H H H L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...FB

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