Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240533 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 133 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will be in control through mid week. Upper disturbances will bring back more showers for the later portion of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 8 pm update. Lingered scattered showers over the mountains through most of the evening hours before dissipating. Otherwise...no changes. Previous discussion...Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers/storm have developed over the northern West Virginia mountains. Models suggest these storms will continue into evening hours...before dissipating before midnight. With high pressure in control...expect conditions will be quite favorable for dense valley fog to develop once again tonight... generally after 04 utc. The fog and any low clouds that form tonight should dissipate shortly after sunrise on Tuesday. GFS suggests there could be some showers and storms across the northern mountains again Tuesday afternoon...while NAM suggests dry conditions. Have decided to keep forecast dry for now. Temperature guidance is relatively close and is similar to previously forecasted lows for tonight and highs on Tuesday. So only minor tweaks made. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Period begins with upper ridge crossing in the wake of an upper level low pulling away from the New ENgland coast. This spells dry weather with not much cloud Tuesday night into Wednesday. Once the ridge axis passes Wednesday, weak upper level disturbances in the west to southwest flow in its wake, and increasing warmth moisture in low level south to southwest flow, will lead to an increase in cloudiness, and the shower thunderstorm possibility from the west, by late in the day on Wednesday. The it appears the crescendo of this will be a pair of warm fronts and trough axes that cross late Wednesday night into Thursday. This should give rise to the greatest precipitation coverage of the period Thursday morning, not a diurnally favored time for thunderstorms. In the wake of these systems, it appears deep layer wind shear will be weak but CAPE could exceed a KJ/KG into the middle Ohio valley by late Thursday to support scattered thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish Thursday night with loss of heating, and weak upper level ridging rebuilding into the area. Raised highs a little per latest guidance while lows appeared to be largely in line. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather, especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday given the breaking down of the ridge. The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the coastal Carolinas. Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Under mainly clear conditions...expecting some valley fog to develop tonight. Overall...the atmosphere is drier...so think the extent of the fog will be limited...and the guidance largely shows this. But have some confidence issues at places like CRW and CKB tonight...and EKN observations are already bouncing between LIFR and MVFR. Fog lifts after 12Z. VFR through 03Z Wednesday. Will need to assess valley fog potential again tonight...but looks to be less of an issue as of right now. Surface flow generally westerly less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for the remainder of tonight. High after 13Z. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog development and dissipation may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/24/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L L L H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L M H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR in river valley fog possible Wednesday morning...in showers/storms late Wednesday into Thursday morning and widespread fog Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26

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