Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191342 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 942 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weather remains unsettled with a warm front remaining in our vicinity, and then a cold front crossing Thursday night. Brief high pressure Saturday. Organized low pressure Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 940 AM Wednesday... Adjusted POPS slightly, trimming across our northern zones based on current radar trends. Otherwise forecast is on track. Seeing some isold convection across KY this morning and these should track in generally easterly direction in the mean flow. We have a relatively low CAPE and shear environment, so any storms that do fire will be of the short lived, single cell variety, which should deaden after sunset. More clouds today and this should help keep us off yesterday`s highs, and keep overnight mins up Thursday morning As of 320 AM Wednesday... Warm front is taking a north to south orientation today. Dew points will increase into the low 60s across the Western half of the forecast area and this will make it feel quite a bit muggy across the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers are expected today, but a weak short wave approaches from the west this afternoon and this may help kick off a few thunderstorms as well. However, although CAPE values will be between 500 to 1000 J/Kg, there is very little shear, so just expecting isolated pop up storms that will be short-lived. With the loss of heating after sunset, we should see showers and storms decrease and most areas will remain dry overnight. Tonight will also be another warm one with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s in the Ohio Valley and in the low 50s in the mountains with us being well within the warm sector.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 340 AM Wednesday... Models are down playing the mid level short wave anticipated in previous runs for Wednesday. However, they show and increase in pwats to around 1.4 inches within a tongue of boundary layer theta-e under southwest flow extending from the southern plains, north northeast into the OH Valley Wednesday. Diurnal heating expected with sfc CAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg west of the OH river could maintain showers and storms across southeast OH, while less coverage can be expected east of the OH river across WV Wednesday. The atmosphere remains slightly unstable Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will increase the probability of showers and storms Thursday night as it crosses east into early Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 340 AM Wednesday... Conditions improve by Friday night and Saturday as a fresher air mass filters in under northerly flow. Expect a more fresh spring temperatures during the weekend. On Sunday, a low pressure system approaches from the south to increase once again, the probability for precipitation to likely and categorical Saturday and Saturday night. Strong lifting is expected with this system by the strong upper level trough pass across the area Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Wednesday... A warm front is kicking off scattered showers across the region. It is possible that these showers could bring brief MVFR conditions at times today with highest confidence of MVFR ceilings at BKW. The front will take on a north to south orientation this afternoon. East of the front, CKB and EKN are likely to remain VFR in downslope flow, however with the SE flow BKW will see upslope clouds and mountains may be obscured. An isolated thunderstorm will become possible west of the front by later this afternoon, but very low confidence if we will see any storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings may differ this morning with the scattered showers. Isold IFR may occur with heavier rain showers or possibly thunderstorms this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H H H L M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, as a cold front approaches, and then in stratus behind the front overnight Thursday night into Friday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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