Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280704 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 152 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND IS FORESEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HORUS PER WAA ALOFT. EXPECT NIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WARMING UP TO MID TO UPPER 40S BY THURSDAY AS TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. WARM ADVECTION IS SUGGESTED BY MODELS ON THURSDAY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES REACHING 4C UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACHES SOUTHEAST OH BY 18Z THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THEN...COLD ADVECTION RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX AND ULTIMATELY TO ALL SNOW. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN ON THE UPSLOPE MACHINE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR SO. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. CONTINUED TO MENTIONING 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH COUNTY AVERAGE SEEMS NOT TO MEET CRITERIA ONLY BEYOND 12 HOURS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. A STRONG HIGH BUILDS STARTS IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FRIDAY...WITH LOWS INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING CLEARING COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 01/28/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW SWITCHING TO RAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY

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