Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200752 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 352 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front lifts north keeping area unstable this weekend. A new cold front crosses from the west Sunday night. High pressure Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM... Adjusted pops, mainly south, to account for the new convection in eastern Kentucky. Carry it east-southeastward through southern portions of the forecast area through 06Z before it weakens and moves out of the area. The activity developed in an area that recovered late this past afternoon from earlier convection that produced a large cool pool over our and JKLs CWAs. Nocturnal stabilization and only light to moderate low to mid level flow should limit the lifespan of this convection per SWOMCD 0794. Temperatures adjusted for cool pool over the middle Ohio Valley. As of 810 PM... Canceled watch 247 showers and thunderstorms move east and weaken. Severe wording removed from grids / forecast. As of 515 PM Friday Surface low pressure located just northwest of the CWA with a cold front extending south-southwestward from it, eventually tailing back to the southwest through the lower Ohio River Valley as of 5 PM. CAPE values were up around 2500 J/kg ahead of the storms but the shear was largely north of the low pressure center and most of the storms. However, 15 to 20 kts h85 flow and 25 to 30 kts mean h85-h5 flow could still support some storm organization. Adjusted PoPs, clouds and thunder to better reflect line of storms along cold front traversing east across the area overnight. Severe weather wording added where watch 247 is in effect until 11 pm over much of the middle Ohio Valley, then the intensity and coverage decrease overnight. As of 205 PM Friday... The convection that moved into the southern CWA this morning has completely disrupted the overall synoptic setup, so there is some disarray to the activity this afternoon and what is expected later tonight. Got a mesohigh developed where the decaying convection/stratiform rain shield resides from the morning activity, with a northerly moving outflow boundary sparking the next round of convection across the northern tier. This has made the warm front over the area all but impossible to locate. The cool mesohigh has either made a pocket within the warm sector that is trying to move north, or it is holding up the front. Either way, modification of what is left over of heating today could be enough to get another round of isolated convection into the evening as the synoptic flow of the warm sector gets going again. High res models indicating another wave of activity moving in from the northwest heading into early tonight, so ramp the POPs up to likely in this area. Overall the activity has remained largely below severe limits, and expect that trend to continue, although given the slight risk that was extended into the area, isolated severe cannot be ruled out. Flow aloft still remains a limiting factor here. Will need to watch the coal fields for additional rain with well over an inch falling earlier this morning. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Saturday... By Sunday and Sunday night, showers and thunderstorms activity will increase from west to east as a warm front lifts northeast followed by a cold front. Pwats increase to 1.9 inches with limited sfc CAPE and deep layered shear. Therefore, expect an environment conducive to flash flooding and not severe for Sunday. The cold front moves east diminishing rainfall over the area during the overnight hours. Areas that have already received heavy rainfall from Friday morning and afternoons will be more vulnerable for water problems and for the potential flash flooding during the end of the weekend. Behind the front, expect a period of cooler and drier air early Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Friday... Cooler and drier weather will prevail at the beginning of next week. However, the chances for rain return by midweek with the next frontal system. Temperatures will return to a more seasonable level during this period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Saturday... Showers and thunderstorms are coming to an end across the area for the remainder of the night. Now the big question is if we see fog or low stratus with the abundant moisture in the low levels. Valley fog could form and may become dense in areas that received rainfall. Low stratus may be more likely in vicinity of stationary front that stretches from east to west across Northern West Virginia. Conditions should improve back to VFR by late morning. More showers and thunderstorms are possible by Saturday afternoon, but still quite a bit of uncertainty on where showers or storms will set up. Southeast upslope flow should bring MVFR ceilings back into BKW by midnight Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cloud cover could keep areas from seeing fog even with the saturated grounds. Uncertainty on how far south stratus will drift with the stationary front. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/20/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L M H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H L H L L H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Isolated IFR possible in fog Sunday and Monday nights, and in showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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