Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201359 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 959 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Drier/more stable air today. Upper level high pressure builds over central U.S. with a warming trend through the end of the week. Weak disturbances could drop southeast around ridge. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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as of 1330z...last of the valley fog is quickly evaporating in the southern river valleys. As expected...less valley fog was seen in the drier air further north. Debris clouds from Mississippi River convection should remain to our west. 12z 850 mb temp a degree lower at Pbz but a degree warmer at Iln compared to 00z. Our max temps are a bit higher than most guidance...but with strong heating...and drying ground...will stick with it. Dew points should lower a bit for 17z to 21z with the mixing...then creep up toward sunset. So dew points will not be excessive for mid summer. Late night fog should be later in forming and less coverage on Thursday compared to this morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper ridge continues to strengthen and build eastward at the start of the period...with an increase in heat and humidity as we progress into the weekend. Dew points will gradually climb into the 70s by Friday into the weekend...and this combined with temperatures in the 90s...will create heat indices over 100 across much of the lowlands Friday into the weekend. Will continue to highlight this in the HWO...as it is looking more and more likely heat advisories will be needed. Most of the period should remain relatively dry...however...there exists the possibility of disturbances aloft moving southeast into the region at times...triggering showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours expected with any storms. Still a little too far out to determine exact timing and path of any disturbances...but...maintained a general chance to slight chance in the forecast at times during the period && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The heat will continue thru much of the extended with this weekend serving as the apex as the upper level ridge axis plagues the central parts of the country...keeping the extreme heat at bay thankfully. Still...highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s will create heat index values likely eclipsing the 100 degree mark Saturday and Sunday. Will keep the mention of potential heat advisories in the current HWO. A caveat in realizing such thresholds will depend on areal coverage of any convection. A moisture axis from the upper level wave that comes thru Friday night may linger on Saturday as the ridge axis makes subtle changes. This may provide the lift for aftn convection once any mid level cap is broken. We have included some chance pops in for Saturday afternoon...centered over SE OH. Our far NE zones may stay capped to keep the day dry. Another upper level wave will help to flatten the ridge some on Sunday and especially early next week with increased threat for shra/tsra. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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12Z Wednesday thru 12Z Thursday... High pressure will provide VFR mostly clear conditions through the period...except for IFR/LIFR river valley fog til 13z this morning mainly at CRW and EKN. For tonight expect less river valley fog...but briefly IFR at EKN and CRW 08z-10Z Thursday morning. Near calm winds by night...and north to northwest wind 4 to 8 kts by day. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV

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