Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 042035 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 335 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TURNING COLDER WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES BY MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND QUITE SHALLOW BUT OROGRAPHIC ACCENT COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION...BUT A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. LOW STRATUS DECK WILL START TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...BUT THERMAL TROUGH AT 850MB IS EVIDENT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG THE SLOPES UNTIL ABOUT NOON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOMORROW AND ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AMID A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH...WITH ONLY A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...WEAK 500 MB TROF AXIS PASSES OUR LONGITUDE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE ONLY CLOUDS NO PCPN. SUPER BOWL SUNDAY APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INFLUENCE FROM LOBES OF 500 MB VORTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOARD 500 MB TROF MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS MUCH DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE 500 MB TROF. 12Z GFS EVENS KEEPS A CUT OFF 500 MB LOW TRACKING UP THE OHIO VALLEY COME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LEANING TOWARD THE 12Z GFS BEING A BIT STRONG....SO ALSO NOT QUITE AS COLD. EVEN A WEAKER 500 MB SOLUTION WILL STILL HAVE THE TROF IN OUR VICINITY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH REACHES INTO THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF...SO PCPN COULD BE STRATIFORM VS SHOWERS INITIALLY BEFORE MORE SHOWERY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE...LEFT PCPN SHOWERY. OF COURSE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AROUND 0.40. SO NO BIG/MAJOR STORMS FORESEEN. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL START TO CLEAR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. TOMORROW EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLEARING TONIGHT FROM MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. ALSO, ALTHOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT...I CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MPK/30 NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MPK

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