Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251756 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 156 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passes to the northwest on Sunday with showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1220 PM Saturday... Quiet weather continues in the near term through tonight. It will remain very mild tonight as gradient winds pick up and a variably cloudy sky remains. The near vertically stacked low pressure currently over MS Valley will track into IL late tonight, putting the region in good upper level divergence. Closer to the surface, we expect a decaying band of storms will make a run toward western zones just after daybreak. The thinking is this should be void of thunder by the time it arrives such that just some light showers are expected as it pivots into the area. Behind this feature, there should be some drying in the mid levels advecting in for the afternoon as the stacked low makes a run MI with some recovery at the surface. As heating is maximized in the afternoon, expect showers and storms to develop in the afternoon. Some of these could be on the strong side along and north of the OH River and including northeast KY. Model soundings and NCAR ensembles suggest good shear with some low level helicity. Lacking is much in the way of instability given a fairly moist column. Having said that...given the dynamics involved and the shear...we do feel there is the potential for strong to possibly severe low topped convection in the aforementioned locations. Given the shear profile, there could also be some rotation in the more robust convection, particularly across southeast OH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday as low pressure at the surface and aloft into the Great Lakes. The negatively tilted system will pull moisture into the region, although there will be some downsloping too across the western slopes and lowlands. The combination of 40-50kts bulk shear and around 500J/kg CAPE will yield the potential for at least isolated strong to severe storms. NAMnest, WRFARW and WRFNMM all in decent agreement bringing a round of thunderstorms into the tri- state region around 18Z Sunday. Will place mention of potential damaging winds and hail in HWO for area outlined by SPC marginal risk. Drop POPs down to slight chance on Monday. GFS is much faster than ECMWF and NAM on the next surface low, thus did not go completely dry Monday. This system doesn`t look as strong as Sundays, with just an open wave aloft instead of a closed low. However, still have likely POPs Tuesday...along and east of the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday... Not a whole lot of confidence through the long term as GFS and ECMWF offer different solutions. Both show a drier period Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. At that point, the GFS brings a quick moving system through -- passing it south of the CWA and pulling a shot of cold air down. GFS shows about -4C 850mb temps for Friday. The ECMWF is much slower, with an upper low closing off over the upper Mississippi Valley, the surface low much farther west, and +12C 850mb temps across CWA on Friday. Stuck very close to consensus guidance with no strong feeling either way. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 PM Saturday... VFR through tonight with intervals of cirrus, altocu, and stratocu. Southeast low level flow will increase late, providing a bit of puff perhaps for KBKW. A decaying band of storms will approach the area just after daybreak. Current thinking is this will be primarily showers as it moves through with maybe some MVFR reductions in vsby. As the day progresses, expect additional showers and some storms to develop over the western sites close to the end of the valid taf period. This would bring IFR conditions at times as they work through. Some of the convection could become strong to severe. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR likely in showers and storms late Saturday night and Sunday, possibly lingering as fog and low ceilings Sunday night as the rain ends. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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