Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 121512 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1012 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes southeastward through the area this afternoon and tonight. It then essentially waffles back and forth across the area through the weekend, and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 AM Thursday... Beefed up wind gusts a bit through the afternoon hours with many places already gusting to 30 kts. KCKB last hour gusted to 44kts...likely aided by peaks of sun. Will not issue any wind advisories unless this becomes more prevalent over the area, and as of now, this appears to be an outlier. High temps today still have a shot at hitting 70 degrees across lowland locations, especially if peaks of sun are realized. It appears the records are safe except at KHTS/KPKB where it will be close. As of 420 AM Thursday... No significant changes were necessary to the near term forecast. Frontal boundary at 07Z across southeast MI/NW OH, and through central IN/IL. Out ahead of the front, gusty southerly winds have continued in the overnight period, along with gradually warming temperatures. Frontal boundary will gradually sag south towards the region today, entering SE Ohio zones around 21Z, Ohio River area around 00Z, and south of or along southern zones at the end of the period. Some marginal instability associated with the front may generate a rumble of thunder this afternoon/evening, mainly across parts of southeast Ohio. Added a slight chance of thunder into the forecast to account for this. Could be even more thunder if breaks in the clouds occur, but at this point, thinking should remain rather overcast. As the front pushes south tonight, colder air will move into the region, with perhaps -DZ or -FZDZ across parts of southeast Ohio. In addition to the precipitation, winds will be quite gusty once again, particularly across the higher terrain counties. At this point, think gusts will for the most part remain below advisory criteria, however, this is something that will need to be watched throughout the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 500 AM Thursday... The area will be caught in a baroclinic zone between a tenacious upper level high over the Gulf of Mexico, and a northern stream trough over the northeast U.S. this period. Friday morning finds a cold front having just pushed through the forecast area and residing just off the southeast edges of it. The forecast cuts off anafront precipitation quicker behind it compared with previous forecast, and this eliminates the chance for freezing rain in the middle Ohio Valley Friday morning. This reference has been removed from the HWO. The front and its associated precipitation push farther south Friday morning, before pushing back north late Friday and Friday night, on an overrunning surge. This could introduce freezing rain over the middle Ohio Valley into northern WV, and then back down mainly the eastern slopes of the northern WV mountains, overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. The front pushes back south Saturday night, with one last small chance for freezing rain over the middle Ohio Valley and down the east slopes of the northern WV mountains early Sunday morning. Kept this mention in the HWO. Upper ridging builds Sunday night, pushing the front, and any associated precipitation, back north. There is a very small chance for freezing rain in interior southeast Ohio, but opted to leave it out of the HWO for now given PoPs only in the 20s. Temperatures close to guidance with the baroclinic zone fluctuating almost in synch with the diurnal temperature cycle. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 500 AM Thursday... This period features mild and, at times, wet weather, with upper level ridging east of the Appalachians and upper level troughing just to the west. Warmer air takes control Monday, with little if any precipitation Monday into Monday night. A cold front approaches Tuesday with a chance for showers, mainly for the middle Ohio Valley, before the front lifts out on account of a wave of low pressure moving up the middle Mississippi Valley. That wave is likely to bring the cold front back toward the area with showers on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The forecast has the front and upper level short wave trough exiting Thursday, taking the rain showers with it. However, uncertainty in the timing of all these systems increases by then. Temperatures close to guidance and continuing above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 605 AM Thursday... Mainly VFR conditions, although brief MVFR cigs are possible this morning, generally 14-20Z particularly across southeast Ohio and northern WV including at site KPKB. Otherwise, gusty southwesterly winds will continue across the area out ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts in the 20 kt range lowlands, and in the 20-30kt range higher terrain. Precipitation will increase in coverage from north to south after 21Z, with widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions developing. There is also the possibility of isold convection across parts of southeast Ohio after 19Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated MVFR and IFR conditions could vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L M M H L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H L AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... Local IFR possible Friday morning in low cigs. IFR possible again Saturday and Sunday in rain showers and a wintry mix.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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