Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240023 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 723 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRENGTHENING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY. CLIPPER LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. TURNING COLDER MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT BETTER SFC OBS...SHOWING AREAS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. SENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO MIXED PCPN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF STATES SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS A HODGE PODGE OF RAIN...AND SNOW SO FAR...BUT STILL EXPECTING PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN SNOW OCCURS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL STILL EXPECTING MAIN IMPACTS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WHERE LIGHT ICE ACCUMS...ALONG WITH THE PERIODS OF SLEET...AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL OCCUR. GENERALLY HAVE 2 TO 6 INCHES FIGURED FOR THESE COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES. FOR THE LOWLANDS...STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT BURST OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT...AS DEFORMATION BAND FORMS AND SWINGS EAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEPT AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT AREAS TO THE OHIO RIVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS COLDER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE LONGER. BUT OVERALL...AT THIS POINT...FEEL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED SO THAT NO ADVISORY IS NECESSARY. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO FOLLOW UP WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...TO LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO HANG AROUND ON SATURDAY IN THE MOIST NWLY FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HAVE LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A 500MB RIPPLE MOVES THROUGH. NW FLOW BEHIND THIS ENDS PRETTY QUICKLY AS QUICK MOVING CLIPPER DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. CLIPPER WILL CROSS CWA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO TRENDED THAT WAY...BRINGING SOME OF THE HIGHER POPS THAT WERE PREVIOUS NORTH OF CWA INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP SNOW GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WILL MODIFY HWO A BIT TO INCLUDE A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEN TRANSITION TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NW FLOW AND COLDER 850MB AIR ARRIVING MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WITH THERMAL 850 MB TROF STILL MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THAN GUIDANCE AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE FLUFF...MINOR ACCUMULATIONS STILL POSSIBLE. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...DRY WITH WARMING ALOFT WEDNESDAY...MAY NOT BE REALIZED AT GROUND UNTIL THURSDAY. NEXT FRONT STILL TIMED FOR LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. THEN DRIER TURNING SOMEWHAT COLDER DAY 7. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SNOW ARE EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SFC OBS. A STRONGER BAND OF PCPN NOTICEABLE IN RADAR IMAGES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND CENTRAL WV. THIS MODERATE PCPN WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG ITS PATCH TO AFFECT CRW...HTS...AND PKB THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL AFFECT REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS REST OF SITES BY 04Z LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY. PCPN WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO SNOW MAKING IFR CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE. THIS PCPN ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF STATES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AREAS OF PCPN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SATURDAY PERHAPS EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: DURATION OF IFR CIGS AND VSBY MAY BOUNCE FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE AREA WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ046- 047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...ARJ

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