Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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292 FXUS61 KRLX 141839 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 239 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure influences fade tonight. A cold front crosses Sunday afternoon and evening. Much cooler early next week. High pressure with warming trend balance of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Saturday... Mainly clear conditions and unseasonably warm weather continues for the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Overnight temperatures stay on the mild side for the most part in south southwesterly flow as strong cold front pushes towards the area. No major timing changes with the showers/storms and frontal passage. Best chance for thunder will be upon arrival in the Ohio and Kentucky zones, gradually fading away around the I-79 corridor. Regardless, wind threat exists, and may need a few statements as the convection works through the CWA. Temperatures should be above normal again Sunday with time to heat/mix before the cold front passes, and wind gusts will also be on the increase as the dynamics strengthen in proximity to the system. Cold front should be a clean sweeper through the mountains heading into the short term with a significant change of airmass. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 239 PM Saturday... Cold front should be located east of the region by the beginning of this period. However, guidance continues to indicate that there will still be some showers across the eastern half of the region. These showers should decrease from the west Sunday night as much drier and cooler air filter into the region. There could even be some upslope showers across the mountain counties Monday morning. High pressure will build in on Monday with High pressure centered over the region Monday night and Tuesday. Expect conditions will be quite favorable Monday night for radiational cooling and have tweaked lows Monday night down to reflect this thinking. Current thinking is that most of the region will see readings in the 30s with some 20s possible in the higher elevations. So will continue mention of a fairly widespread frost/freeze for Monday Night and Tuesday morning. This could result in the end of the growing season in many locations. Other than the lows Monday night, generally kept temperatures close to blended guidance numbers. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 239 PM Saturday... High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the area through Saturday resulting in dry conditions through the period. Could see some localized frost in the mountains Tuesday night. Temperatures should then be near or slightly above seasonal values on Wednesday with a slow warming trend. Combination of a very dry airmass and the warming trend will lead to relative humidity values less than 40 percent each afternoon. However, winds should remain quite light minimizing any fire danger threat. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 PM Saturday... VFR through the period, with the exception of EKN going to LIFR fog after 07Z tonight. Some wind gusts to 15-20kts will be possible today in increasing southerly flow. This will increase Sunday, especially as daytime heating/boundary layer mixing commences, with gusts to 20-25kts possible by the end of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LIFR in EKN tonight is in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible with a cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Dense overnight and morning valley fog next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...26

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