Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251530 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1003 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THIS CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10 AM UPDATE. EXTENDED AND UPPED POPS BY A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING PER RADAR AND OBS...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN ERNEST TO SHUT THINGS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SAT IR IMAGERY AS OF 0730Z SHOWING WELL DEFINED STRATCU DECK STRETCHING FROM KENTUCKY...NORTHWARD INTO INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD DECK TO HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS SLATED TO OCCUR...AND ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE THAT WILL LEAD TO A SUNSHINY CHRISTMAS DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWLANDS AND SE OHIO. FOR TEMPS...LATCHED ONTO INHERITED FCST TEMPS FOR TODAYS HIGHS AND USED A BC BLEND IN COMBO WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES TO COME UP WITH OVERNIGHT MINS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS VARY A BIT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT PUSHES BEFORE A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS WITHIN THE MODEL SPREAD...SO WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ONE THING THAT ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL...SO WILL SLOW DOWN INITIAL POPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM IS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND THEN A SECONDARY WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE SECOND WAVE...KEEPING IT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. THE LATEST ECMWF IS TRENDING THIS WAY AS WELL. STARTED WITH WPC GUIDANCE...AND THEN BLENDED IN ANOTHER DOSE OF THE GFS. HAVE THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THEN HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 15Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY... COLD ADVECTION MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. THIS WARMING AND DRYING WILL CLEAR THE SKIES IN THE SOUTH AND WEST BY 00Z...WHILE MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST IN THE NORTH AND EAST. ANY LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...BECOMING VFR MOSTLY CLEAR LOW LANDS BY 03Z. MVFR CEILINGS IN MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BECOMING VFR CEILINGS BY 06Z AND CLEARING BY 12Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EST 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H M H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...KMC/JMV SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...KMC/JMV

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