Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 182357 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 737 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MUGGY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SHOWERS AND FOG OVERNIGHT. A VERY HUMID AND ACTIVE PATTERN NEARLY EVERYDAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE STRONG MID LEVEL VORT MAX...THAT HAD US CONCERNED THE PAST 2 DAYS...HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CWA AND EAST IN VIRGINIA BY 23Z. EVEN THE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WERE STARTING TO SINK SOUTH AT 23Z...RATHER THAN NEARLY STATIONARY. WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT POPS FIRST IN THE MID OHIO VALLEY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH. AS A RESULT..LEAVE CHANCE POPS THE LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS...FOG SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. FIGURING ON SOME STRATUS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AFTER DAWN IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...BEFORE LIFTING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR TUE EVENING AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF PRECIP WED. OVERALL...NO MAJOR WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. TUESDAY EVENING A FAST-MOVING S/W TROUGH PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER INDIANA AND MOVING E/SE WARD. THE SFC FRONT STILL PROGGED TO BE LAGGING BEHIND...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A PREFRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE EVE OUT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH S/W TROUGH. SOME INDICATION THAT THIS CONVECTIVE LINE WILL ARRIVE LATER THAN 00Z WED...PERHAPS MORE LIKE 03Z WED. KEPT INHERITED LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES HOWEVER AS THESE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS SEEM TO HAVE A WAY OF PROPAGATING MUCH QUICKER THAN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WOULD INDICATE. MARGINAL SHEAR AROUND 25KTS AND ML CAPE VALS OF 1000-1500J/KG INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLY REACHING SVR LIMITS...MAINLY OVER THE SE OHIO ZONES. STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT LARGE HAIL CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME SFC INSTABILITY REMAINING EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. BY WED...S/W TROUGH IS EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z WITH MAIN GENERAL AREA OF PRECIP EXITING WITH IT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR PUSHES IN AS WELL ON A W/NW FLOW ALOFT. SFC FRONT TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD BUT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE ON ITS SOUTHERN END. WITH SOME LLVL MOISTURE REMAINING WITH PWATS UP AROUND THE 1.40IN-1.60IN RANGE HAVE CONTINUED LOW/MID CHANCE POPS BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BEING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS THE FRONT BRUSHES THAT AREA. SHOULD BE ANOTHER LULL IN OVERNIGHT PRECIP WED NIGHT BUT PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...COINCIDENT WITH ANOTHER S/W TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE FLOW ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SIDED GENERALLY WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH A FEW TWEAKS BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY REGION AND LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...NAILING DOWN THE DETAILS AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME IS DIFFICULT. AS SUCH...CONTINUE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE COMING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL...WITH NO REAL HEATWAVES OR COOL PERIODS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MUGGY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH SMALL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SEPARATION IN THE SOUTH AT SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SINKING SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE 500 MB VORT MAX THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. FOG WILL LIKELY FORM EARLY...02Z THROUGH 04Z...IN THE SOUTH... INCLUDING CRW...DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS. WIDESPREAD LIFR AND IFR IN FOG 06Z THROUGH 12Z...LIFTING INTO SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN WV 12Z TO 14Z. 18Z TO 00Z...FIGURING MOST NEW CONVECTION WILL BE TO OUR WEST AND MAYBE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...DID NOT INCLUDE IN ANY SPECIFIC TAF FORECASTS. MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT. SOME 6 MILES IN HAZE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LINGERING PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT MAY CAUSE SURFACE VISIBILITY TO OSCILLATE MORE THAN INDICATED IN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/19/14 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H L L L L H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H L L L L L L AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...KTB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.