Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 090631 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 231 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.. ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... ADJUSTED POPS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME BECOMING STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KY...NORTHEAST THROUGH CKB AND EKN IN WV. TEMPERATURES REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 635 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC...WINDS ARE PRIMARILY THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS...ALTHOUGH BETTER DYNAMICS ARE CLEARLY NORTH OF OUR CWA IN PITTSBURGH AND STATE COLLEGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES NOT QUITE IN THE 40KT RANGE...AND HAS AN ORIENTATION THAT IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE CURRENT LINE. THIS HINDERS THE WIND POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME BRIEF STABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD ERODE FROM THE MID LEVELS AGAIN INTO THE EVENING WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAN ANYTHING. HAVE KEPT THE POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY THE WESTERN ZONES OUT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS STAY UP OVERNIGHT WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS LINGERING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY...WHICH WILL BE AT MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS WEDNESDAY THAT MAY LOOK ROBUST AT TIMES...BUT VERY LIMITED IN THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS...OR A BRIEF STORM OR TOW...CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST... LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEAVES AREA UNDER GENERALLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS AGREE IN KEEPING BULK OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA WHERE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. INTRODUCED SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES...USING A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED DATA AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LEAVES SATURDAY AS A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAPABLE TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THEIR PATCH AT HTS...CRW...CKB AND EKN OVERNIGHT. PCPN ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT STRONG ERRATIC WINDS IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS POSSIBLE...AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. POST PCPN FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WHERE SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS...IN SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS...BUT OVERALL...EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO CONTINUE TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FORMATION AT BAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFTER 15Z...WITH BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/MIST TONIGHT DEPENDING ON POST PCPN AREAS AND CLEARING POCKETS OF SKIES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/09/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L M M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L M L M H H M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...SL/26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...ARJ

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