Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171035 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 635 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dissipating front today as high pressure aloft builds in. Hot and humid by mid week, with increasing storm chances in northwest flow Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 630 AM Monday... No changes. As of 320 AM Monday... At first glance, one would expect enhanced convection to refire this afternoon and evening with a front trying to drift southward through southeastern Ohio under an upper trough over our region. In addition, one would also expect enhanced convection over the WV mountains as models show a low level westerly flow west of the mountains and a south to southeast flow east of the mountains. However the models agree there will be much weakening of the upper trough with an upper high building in from the west, and the frontal system consequently dissipating on its trek southward through southeast Ohio. This will combine with a relative lack of moisture to begin with, due to the deep moisture being suppressed well to the south. Thus, the prospect for convection today and tonight is limited. The best chance for rain will be scattered storms this afternoon and evening over parts southeast Ohio and in parts of the WV mountains, with little chance elsewhere. Otherwise, river valley fog will burn off this morning and leave for plenty of sunshine, but no extremes in temperatures or humidity are expected today. High temperatures will approach 90 degrees this afternoon but with heat indices well below headline criteria.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 AM Monday... The short term forecast is going to represent a transition in the upper level pattern from an upper trough lingering over the piedmont to an eastward migrating upper ridge from the high plains into the mid Mississippi valley. As this transition occurs, the POPs will move from lingering activity over the mountains early on in the short term to northwest flow aloft. The heat will begin to build into a sustained hot and humid period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 255 AM Monday... Activity increases in the northwest flow as the upper ridge continues its migration eastward to the southern Appalachians and eventually off the southeast coast. Baroclinic zone that had been parked over the central plains states will eventually shift eastward as that ridge moves off the coast, with a frontal system approaching by the end of the extended. Heat persists through the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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12Z Monday thru 12Z Tuesday... As of 630 AM Monday... Thru Monday afternoon... Dissipating weak front over southeast Ohio. Otherwise weak pressure gradient across the area. IFR/LIFR river valley fog 09Z-13Z affecting all major TAF sites except BKW. Thereafter, generally SCT 5000-6000 feet AGL. Mainly widely SCT afternoon TSRA southeast OH and over hier terrain of WV mountains, but not enough to include in any major TAF sites at time. So, expect VFR to prevail after early morning IFR river valley fog. Near calm winds becoming light westerly most areas by 17Z. For tonight, basically a repeat of last night with weak pressure gradient and near calm winds, leading to IFR river valley fog affecting all major TAF sites except BKW after 07Z Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and extent will likely vary. May need to add VCTS for EKN and BKW TAFS Monday afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... River valley IFR/LIFR fog expected again after 06Z Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/DTC NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.