Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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658 FXUS61 KRLX 210226 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 926 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably warm through the work week. Weak system late Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weather for next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 9 PM Monday... Basically took most of the fog out of the forecast tonight. Despite valley winds decoupling for at least much of the night before increasing late, air is just too dry. As of 130 PM Today... High pressure north of the area today slides off to the northeast, and off the northeast U. S. coast, on Tuesday. That high will keep dry weather in place most of the period. There is a chance for showers getting into the middle Ohio Valley late in the day on Tuesday, as an upper level short wave trough approaches, but deep layer moisture and instability remain absent. Lowered lows a bit tonight but still closer to the higher MET versus the lower MAV. Highs Tuesday were close to a blend of the guidance and accepted. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Monday... Light shower activity will return to the region by Tuesday evening/night, as a weak frontal boundary, and moisture from a low in the Gulf of Mexico, interact. Overall, amounts look to be light, with greatest activity expected across the southern zones, where more moisture will be present from aforementioned low. Mostly dry by mid week, but a warm frontal boundary will lift north across the area on Thursday, with isold-sct showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north, as it does so. Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal, particularly Thursday into Friday, as southerly flow increases out ahead of approaching cold front. In addition to the warmth, winds will pick up as we approach the end of the work week, with gusty conditions developing due to enhanced pressure gradient and increasing winds aloft. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... Strong cold front will move through the area Friday night and Saturday. Still some uncertainty in this time period, but possible we could be looking at strong thunderstorms during this time period. However at this point, greater chance of severe lies just to the west of the CWA, where better instability and shear will exist. Behind the cold front, Saturday will become much cooler, and windy due to strong CAA, with the possibility of light rain and snow showers developing later on into Sunday, particularly across the higher terrain. Linger some low end POPs Friday as well in the warm sector, and then have POPs increasing pretty quickly Friday night as a cold front moves through. ECMWF pretty quick on moving the moisture out by Saturday afternoon, while the GFS has wrap-around moisture lingering. For now stuck closer to the ECMWF and have POPs ending by Saturday night, with a dry forecast on Sunday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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00Z Monday thru 00Z Tuesday... As of 9 PM Monday... High pressure center shifts east overnight with increasing southerly flow later tonight and Tuesday. VFR with mainly SCT high clouds overnight, but possibly high end MVFR fog in the most protected mountain valleys 08Z-12Z, including EKN. High clouds lower and thicken Tuesday from west to east. By 00Z Wednesday, VFR ceilings 4000 feet with SCT rain showers mainly west of the Ohio River, to VFR ceilings 10000 feet in the east. However, VFR ceilings around 4000 feet may develop on east facing slopes of the mountains later tonight and Tuesday in south to southeast flow, but not expected to impact major mountain TAF sites of BKW and EKN. Generally light southeast flow will become southeast 5 to 10 kts later tonight, and south on Tuesday, with higher gusts in mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/JW NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JMV

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