Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212319 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 719 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry/stable air lingers tonight. Low level moisture and dew points begin to increase Friday. Weak disturbances drop southeast Friday and Saturday. Front stalls in upper Oh Valley Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Update... Very quiet this evening with the radar in clear air mode. Temperatures slowly coming down across the CWA. Only seeing some convective debris in terms of cirrus from the decaying line of storms draped from the western basin of Lake Erie through western Ohio to southeastern Indiana. Only made some minor adjustments to the sky grids based on the high level moisture. Previous Discussion... Driest air in the low levels lingers here this evening. at 18z...cumulus struggling to form...still expecting more cu in Ohio. Still figuring on debris clouds dropping southeast 06z to 12z Friday from upstream convection. Any significant fog overnight tonight should be limited to the deep and cooler mountain valleys or southern coal fields. Will leave just 20 to 30 percent pops for Friday. Weak forcing and still high 500 mb heights in weak flow aloft. boundary layer winds increase a bit from the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The heat wave that has been advertised for the past several days will be at its apex over the weekend...assuming we stay dry. It still appears that most of Saturday will remain dry with just an isolated threat late in the day. High temps in the lowlands look top out in the 92 to 95 range with heat index values likely exceeding 100 in SE OH/NE KY/and S half of WV. A weak frontal boundary looks to remain to the north of the area thru the period. However...models are in good agreement on developing a convective complex in S WI/NE IL Saturday evening and diving SE overnight. Debris clouds would likely temper high temps a bit aside from any possible uptick in convection from this feature. Have knocked down prev fcst highs a few degrees which most guidance suggest. HWO continues with advertising possible heat advisories for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... It will turn more unsettled early next week with the arrival of a frontal boundary coupled with a s/w trof passage. These features will make a run toward the area later on Monday with convection chances increasing thru the afternoon and especially into the evening hours. The upper ridge will flatten as the overall pattern turns more zonal with generally weak flow through the atmosphere. This will keep the unsettled pattern going thru Tuesday as the the front will be in no hurry to push through. With the light flow and high pwats...some slow moving downpours are in the cards. The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek...likely ending the heat wave over portions of the area Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Continued drying and some high level cloud cover means even less fog tonight across the various river valleys of the CWA. Only EKN should see IFR fog or worse late tonight...improving after 12Z. Upper level trough brings the chances for convection late for PKB-CKB. Any showers/storms will have a difficult time working their way further south and east. In the end...it will be an all VFR forecast after 13Z...but will need to watch radar trends later in the day. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing at EKN may vary. May need brief restrictions elsewhere late tonight as well from valley fog after 06Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/30 NEAR TERM...KTB/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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