Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 230542
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
142 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
Upper level low lingers around the mid Atlantic states into Monday.
High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys later Monday into
Tuesday. Warmer for mid and late week with showers and thunderstorms.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
830 pm update. Lingered showers a few more hours early tonight...
especially east of the Ohio River.
Upper low moving overhead today sliding down the eastern side of
the Appalachians providing instability for some afternoon and
early evening showers and tstorms. Precipitable water around 0.75
inch...so showers should not be very heavy.
Showers on the retreat overnight but some chance remains overnight
across the mountain counties closer to the upper level low.
May see some patchy fog overnight with saturated lower atmosphere.
Monday afternoon may see another round of showers, but think these
will be even more widely scattered than this afternoons round as
upper level forcing moves off to the east and CAPE minimizes.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Not too much going on in the short term with high pressure
building into the region. Temperatures will start to rise as
ridging and southwesterly return flow starts to bring warm
tropical air mass overhead. Although...moisture will be on the
increase on...with dew points starting to climb into the low 60s
by the afternoon...it appears that showers and thunderstorms may
hold off. For now I went with a model consensus and bring slight
chance to low chance PoP into the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday
afternoon. However...the greater influx of moisture will take
place during the long term period starting on Thursday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring
warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow
off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S.
Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week
with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime
heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high
Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy
rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can
develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Upper level low to the east continues to sling mid level clouds
over West Virginia...with a few breaks in between...playing havoc
with the aviation forecast through 13Z. CRW looks to be the most
prone to wide category fluctuations...based on trends since 00Z
and brief clearing over the last hour. Low ceilings should
develop over the southern mountains...and fog further south and
west into the coal fields.
Where clouds clear...visibilities can drop to IFR or worse
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Observations expected to fluctuate in clouds
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/23/16
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
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