Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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888 FXUS61 KRLX 221925 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 225 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in tonight, and holds on through Friday. An cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Wednesday... Strong high pressure will build from the west to provide dry conditions through the period. Models suggest very cold air at H850 of about minus 8C, will move over the area tonight. With clear skies, near calm winds, and associated radiation cooling, expect temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s. The low inversion at H850 lowers tonight as a subsidence inversion, as high pressure builds in. This brings into question timing of the breaking up of the stratocu later tonight. Went closer to the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. Valley temperatures will fall below ridgetop temperatures overnight where it clears. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 220 PM Wednesday... No significant changes. High pressure, cool and dry weather, and light winds are expected Thursday and Friday. Daytime high temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Late in the period clouds will begin to move in from the west ahead of a cold front.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 220 PM Wednesday... A chance of rain and or snow showers will begin early Saturday morning mostly across the northern counties and mountains as a cold front sweeps through. A brief clearing is expected later Saturday afternoon before another disturbance brings in more cold air and a mix of rain/snow overnight Saturday into Sunday. This second wave of precipitation is also expected to only affect the northern and mountain counties. High pressure takes over late Sunday and slowly drifts eastward through mid- week.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 105 AM Wednesday... Plenty of low level stratus persists over the area behind the cold front under northerly flow. With some mixing and dry air moving in, expect the status clouds to slowly dissipate providing pockets of sunshine. Improvements are foreseen mainly across the lowlands, and the southern WV mountains this afternoon. A subsidence inversion will be lowering tonight so, if ceilings persist, they will lower, and may go IFR. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will prevail. Gentle to moderate winds will diminish today, and become calm tonight, as high pressure builds across the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lifting and break up of MVFR stratocu this afternoon and evening could vary. BKW and EKN ceilings could drop to near IFR tonight if the clouds do not break up. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...ARJ

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