Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300008 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 708 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A wave of low pressure moves northeastward tonight, pushing a cold front through on Wednesday. Cooler high pressure to end the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 705 pm Tuesday...only real change was to increase wind gusts overnight and on Wednesday with development of tight pressure gradient, stronger winds aloft, and caa behind the front on Wednesday. As of 140 PM Tuesday... Models have shifted further west with the main rain band overnight. Therefore have lowered pops in some areas, especially the southeastern counties. A cold front comes through on Wednesday with a fairly good line and some instability. Could see some thunder with this system. Some differences still exist in model timing of the cold front, so although there is a high confidence in showers on Wednesday, confidence is lower in the timing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Expecting post frontal precipitation in the northeast mountains, light, with a trace of snow possible in the highest elevations. These low POPs will continue through early Friday in the moist low level flow in place. Flow aloft turns zonal for the end of the week. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Inconsistencies abound in the extended with a weak upper trough for the end of the weekend and a developing baroclinic zone across the south. Another frontal system is in the works for late Monday night and Tuesday. Expecting the pattern to tighten up bit in terms of separating the systems in the extended, and thus, shorter periods of POPs in upcoming forecasts. But the pattern will remain on the active side with quick moving events. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 700 PM Tuesday... Mainly VFR to start, although patchy mvfr/ifr valley fog has developed in deeper mountain valleys across the northern mountains, including at site KEKN. Lots of uncertainty in how long this will linger, but current thinking is an increase in winds by 08Z should help to prevent from lingering all night. Elsewhere, VFR conditions through at least 10Z or later, when a wave moves northeast through the region, creating showers, heavy at times, and isold thunderstorms. Expect the possibility of at least brief mvfr conditions in showers through 12Z, particularly across southeast Ohio and northeast KY where heavier band will set up, with widespread mvfr developing after 12-15Z, along with local ifr as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. In addition, gusty southerly winds will develop, particularly after 14Z, with gusts in the teen to 20 kt range across the lowlands, and in the upper 20 to near 40 kt range in the higher terrain. In addition, there is the possibility of llws to develop particularly after 09Z as a strong low level jet develops across the region. Will include in later TAF updates as necessary. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and development of rain and associated restrictions this morning and again tonight may vary. LLWS may need to be included in future TAF updates. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR possible with a cold front Wednesday evening and night. IFR possible in the mountains in upslope clouds through Friday, mainly in the higher elevations.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...RPY/sl SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL

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