Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300623 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE FRONT MEANDERING BACK AND FORTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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YET AGAIN...ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A VORT MAX...AT 0615Z...VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WISCONSIN...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO...ALONG WITH THE OVERALL UNSTABLE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. THIS...COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS...WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A RISK...ALTHOUGH LIKE MONDAY...STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG...THEREBY LIMITING WATER ISSUES SOMEWHAT...ALTHOUGH REPETITIVE STORMS COULD CREATE ISSUES. BULK OF CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL DIE OFF AS WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH SOME GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN/CLEARING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS THERE SHOULD STILL BE A LIGHT WIND AT TIMES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SO...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE GFS/NAM MODELS SHOW SOME QPF OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY DECREASING SOME AT NIGHT WHILE THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY. PWATS FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES DONT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK FORCING EXPECTED. WITH THE LOST OF HEATING KEPT LOW POPS AT NIGHT. THE STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX PASSING BY OCCUR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT SO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR THESE TIME PERIODS. WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND CLOSER TO THE GFS NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE WV/KY BORDER INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A NEW AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING MODELS SPITTING QPF ALL OVER THE PLACE SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DECREASED POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PER UNCERTAINTY AS THE ENSEMBLE MODELS DONT LOOK COHERENT AT AND AFTER DAY 3. HARD TO TIME THESE SYSTEMS...SO WILL AGAIN BROAD BRUSH AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR EACH DAY. WATER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ROLLED WITH WPC TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED OFF...WITH ISOLD -SHRA REMAINING...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCKB TO KCRW...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH SUCH AS AT SITES KPKB AND KCKB...AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR FOG ELSEWHERE. EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 13Z...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE LONGER. CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP AGAIN GENERALLY AFTER 16Z TUESDAY...WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG MAY DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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