Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 272007 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 407 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... FRONTED STALLED NORTHERN KY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR TONIGHT. WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTH. THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST. SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE FURTHER NORTH. HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS NORTH. MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER. SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN. MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR. IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3 MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT. BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB- KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PKB-CKB. SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY. FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...KTB

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