Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 140334 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1034 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds on Tuesday. Cold front crosses late Wednesday. High pressure crosses Thursday night. Strong cold front crosses Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 1030 PM Monday... Added drizzle into Tuesday morning. Forecast otherwise on track. As of 900 PM Monday... Adjusted temperatures and dew points up slightly this cloudy night, per latest trends and near term guidance. Guidance including modeled low level temperature fields suggested lower temperatures for the very high terrain of the northern WV mountains late overnight into Tuesday morning. Also slowed clearing a bit Tuesday afternoon, as the low level moisture mixes into an afternoon cu field. As of 700 PM Monday... Forecast on track. As of 1245 PM Monday... A sfc low pressure system will continue to exit the area this afternoon and tonight. Plenty of low level and northerly flow will keep stratus, drizzle and patches of fog in the forecast through tomorrow morning. A slow improvement will continue over the area during the day tomorrow as cooler high pressure and drier air starts to build in over the region. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with plenty of clouds around and with little diurnal range.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 PM Monday... Models are generally in good agreement through the middle of the week. High pressure is in control through the short term period, but slides eastward on Wednesday. Weak return flow will push up temperatures for Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front that arrives in the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. Very weak forcing with the front and the lack of moisture will make for just a light rainfall across the region, with QPF amounts topping out only around a tenth of an inch. By 12Z Thursday the front has cleared the region with just some lingering showers in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 PM Monday... Model guidance really starts to diverge towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Generally, there is good agreement early on with high pressure pushing in behind the front on Thursday, but this appears to be short-lived as a potent system could impact the area late Friday or later in the weekend. Models are consistent in the overall pattern, but there are major timing differences at this time. Low pressure pushes out of the Rockies and tracks northeastward into the Great Lakes. All guidance indicates rapid development with this feature and it eventually drags a strong cold front through. Forcing looks impressive with upper level divergence and a strong anomalous low level jet out ahead of the front. Guidance indicates a H850 wind of 60 to 65 knots which is about 2 to 3 standard deviations above norms. Will have monitor how this unfolds the next few days and although confidence is low at this time, it does appear that the front progresses through quickly, so flooding may not be much of a problem. However, winds may become an issue, especially in the higher terrain. High pressure and colder temperatures move in on Sunday and some leftover upslope snow showers are possible in the mountains. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 700 PM Monday... Low level moisture, in the wake of a low pressure system that crossed Sunday night and Monday, will linger through the overnight, and into the day Tuesday, bringing low MVFR to IFR conditions, mainly on ceilings. BKW is likely to remain VLIFR in dense fog with a light north wind overnight. The dense fog there will break up as the wind veers to northeast and then east, Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, ceilings may improve to MVFR overnight over portions of the middle Ohio Valley, but MVFR mist is also possible. On Tuesday, ceilings will gradually mix higher through the morning hours, with a mainly VFR afternoon, as the remaining cu field gradually dissipates. Light northerly surface flow overnight will veer to light northeast Tuesday morning, and then light east by Tuesday afternoon. Light northerly flow aloft overnight will gradually veer to light northeast on Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR to LIFR conditions may vary overnight, and timing of improvement on Tuesday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 11/14/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L M L L M M H H M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible behind a cold front overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly in stratus.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/99 NEAR TERM...JS/TRM SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...TRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.