Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 172005 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 305 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak warm front lifts north today. Gradual warming over weekend with building heights. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Friday... A ridge of high pressure extends from the sfc up to H500, will maintain dry weather conditions through the period. With mostly clear skies, expect radiational cooling at night, and diurnal heating in the afternoon, for a cool night and mild afternoon Friday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 258 PM Friday... A weak system will cross Saturday night with scattered showers in an otherwise quiet but increasingly anomalously warm pattern. 70 degrees is becoming quite probable for Monday for many southern zones. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM Friday... The very warm pattern continues for much of next week, with just a brief interruption on Wednesday with a weak cool front. This prolonged stretch of warmth will allow for an early start to budding and blooming of some varieties trees/vegetation. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 115 PM Friday... A deep layered ridge of high pressure will continue in control of the weather conditions for widespread VFR conditions through the period. Southeast gusty winds will become light or calm after 23Z as the lower atmosphere decouples. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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