Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 030452 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1252 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1250 PM UPDATE...LOWERED POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS WITH FRONT NOW THROUGH THE REGION. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 930 PM UPDATE... WAVE IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA PER PRESSURE FALL / RISE COUPLET. WITH THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER...THE FLOOD WATCH...IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAS BEEN CANCELED. 800 PM UPDATE... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130 CANCELED AS SEVERE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE ALSO SHIFTING EAST...AND THE FFA WAS DROPPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...AND POPS TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY. PREV DISCN... MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS TIL 8AM TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR AT START OF PERIOD DESPITE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. AS THE CAUSATIVE WAVE EXITS AND THE SHOWERS WANE OVERNIGHT...MVFR MIST AND STRATOCU ARE LIKELY. CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...SO DENSE FOG IS LESS LIKELY. THE STRATOCU MAY LOWER TO IFR STRATUS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...WHICH WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD....AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND ON LIFTING OF STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/03/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L L M M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M L L L L L L AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...TRM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.