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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 101737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH BRINGS SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. MORE SYSTEMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EVIDENT IN H5 VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF PCPN
WITH THIS FEATURE.

IR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE ISOLATED AREAS OF MID CLOUDS TRYING
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH. 1 KM FOG CHANNEL SHOWS FOG HAS FORMED
ALONG MANY RIVER VALLEYS OVER WV BY 07Z.

THE AXIS OF THE H5 TROF EXIT LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT SOME
MINIMAL POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THROUGH GREAT LAKES...WITH MID
OHIO VALLEY FALLING UNDER WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG HPC MODELS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN HOW MUCH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RELIED MAINLY ON SREF PROBABILITY
FORECAST FOR POP FIELDS...WITH ISOLD TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED THE ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR
SUNDAY...AS A SYSTEM PROVIDES DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RELIED ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS
WOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THOUGH EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISOLATED CONVECTION ONGOING WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS 4-5KFT. NEEDED
THE VCTS WORDING IN HTS WITH CELLS IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT.
DROP THIS BY 20Z. CONVECTION WANES AS HEATING WANES THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT.

LATE VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN...BUT VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS
LIKELY TO BOUNCE...GIVEN THE TRENDS OVER LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR
ATMOSPHERE. KEEP THE IFR/LIFR PERIODS CONFINED TO LATE...AFTER 08Z
AND IMPROVING BY 12Z FRIDAY.

MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. LOWLANDS WILL BE
DRY...EKN AND BKW MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A STRAY CELL OR TWO...BUT
NOTHING NEEDED IN PREVAILING AT THIS TIME FOR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND THICKNESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
06Z THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26