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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240622
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS/SHOWERS.
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO
SOUTHEAST OHJIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS EAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN
THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR 06Z...FRONT NEAR EKN TO CRW TO S OF HTS.  LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING
NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER PUSH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FIRST.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUTNAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRIGNIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT
OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDESTORM STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 500 MB
WAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY CREEPING INTO WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO
PKB TO HTS CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING RECHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA 21Z TO
06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN TO FORM
OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ON FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH
WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY