Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 310546 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 146 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/31/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L L M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26/DTC AVIATION...SL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.