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635
FXUS61 KRLX 120439
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1239 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue as a warm and moist airmass remains in
place.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1230 AM Saturday...

River valley fog and fog where rain occurred yesterday can be
expected this morning. Warm, moist and humid air will allow for
some showers and thunderstorms, with the better chances in the
mountains.

Afternoon temperatures will combine with the humidity to create
heat indices at many locations in the lowlands in the upper
90s. Messaging today should stress taking breaks, drinking lots
of water, and other tips for avoiding heat stress.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1235 AM Saturday...

The warm, moist and humid air will remain over the region on
Sunday, with upper level moisture also increasing as a cold
front approaches from the northwest and moves into the region.
The front will stall over the area while a wave forms along the
front associated with an upper level trough. This wave will
cross the area Sunday night into Monday, allowing for some
storms outside the typical diurnal pattern. Drier air will move
in behind the wave Monday night, although there is some
discrepancies between the models on this.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1235 AM Saturday...

A high pressure system will provide drier air for Tuesday. Even
so, can`t rule out some afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains.

As the high shifts eastward, a southerly wind flow will allow
moisture to gradually increase Wednesday into the end of the
work week. This will allow for an increasing chance afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Saturday...

River valley fog and fog where rain occurred yesterday can be
expected this morning. A cumulus deck will form during the day
with some showers and thunderstorms, with the best chances in
the mountains. River valley fog will mainly be in the mountains
Saturday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, expect medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 07/12/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day through Monday. IFR river valley fog possible during
the overnights.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY