Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222345 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 645 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in tonight, and holds on through Friday. An cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 640 PM Wednesday... Beefed up the sky grids this evening north of I64 corridor...lingering stratocu across the northern lowlands/mountains. Tweaked hourly temps based on latest Lamp/HRRR...with a quick fall for areas that have cleared already. As of 130 PM Wednesday... Strong high pressure will build from the west to provide dry conditions through the period. Models suggest very cold air at H850 of about minus 8C, will move over the area tonight. With clear skies, near calm winds, and associated radiation cooling, expect temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s. The low inversion at H850 lowers tonight as a subsidence inversion, as high pressure builds in. This brings into question timing of the breaking up of the stratocu later tonight. Went closer to the blend of all models for temperatures through the period. Valley temperatures will fall below ridgetop temperatures overnight where it clears.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 220 PM Wednesday... No significant changes. High pressure, cool and dry weather, and light winds are expected Thursday and Friday. Daytime high temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Late in the period clouds will begin to move in from the west ahead of a cold front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 220 PM Wednesday... A chance of rain and or snow showers will begin early Saturday morning mostly across the northern counties and mountains as a cold front sweeps through. A brief clearing is expected later Saturday afternoon before another disturbance brings in more cold air and a mix of rain/snow overnight Saturday into Sunday. This second wave of precipitation is also expected to only affect the northern and mountain counties. High pressure takes over late Sunday and slowly drifts eastward through mid- week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 645 PM Wednesday... Generally VFR stratocu this evening for northern lowland and mountain terminals. This will tend to scatter and dissipate from south to north as the evening progresses. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail thru the TAF period, with just some passing mid/high clouds Thursday with a passing s/w trof. Winds slacken tonight as surface high pressure builds in. Surface winds remain light on Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lifting and break up of MVFR stratocu across BKW could linger an hour longer than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M M M H M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M L M H H H M H H H H M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.