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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
321 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TONIGHT. DRY SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING RAIN...
SLEET...AND SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRIER TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOP OF MIXING LAYER TOPS OUT AROUND 5000 MSL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER FORECAST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET...BUT STILL EXPECTED THE WIND TO BLOW THIS
EVENING. 925 MB FLOW ON RAP STILL AROUND 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
INCREASED SPEED A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING.  SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE THREAT CONTINUES TIL 23Z.

WAS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER PUSHING THE PREFRONTAL LIGHT SHOWER
ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT.  OVERALL LOWERED POPS ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT
WITH THAT BAND.  ONLY ORGANIZATION NEAR 18Z WAS ACTUALLY BETWEEN PAH
AND MEM NOT FURTHER NORTH. STILL THINK A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT.

HAVE CLEARING FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING PREDAWN HOURS IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS STILL HOLDING OVER MOUNTAINS
AROUND 12Z BEFORE EVAPORATING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ACTIVE WEATHER...AS USUAL...IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TOWARDS THE REGION. STILL CONTINUES TO BE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THIS STORM...BUT MODELS ARE STARTING
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...TRENDING COLDER. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
THE WARMER SOLUN...AND BRINGS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
IN AGREEMENT...AND ARE COLDER SOLUNS...AND THE ECMWF AS THE
PREFERRED SOLUN FOR THIS SYSTEM ACCORDING TO WPC...WAS USED TO
CONFIGURE PRECIPITATION TYPES.

NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...PW
VALUES GENERALLY RISING TO AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES...BUT GOOD
DYNAMICS MID LEVELS AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH GOOD DENDRITE GROWTH WILL
ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
COLDER AIR WILL EXIST. WITH USING THE COLDER SOLUN...THIS HAS WIPED
OUT MOST OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...I.E. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND FOR
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX...PRETTY
MUCH CWA WIDE.

AT THIS POINT...AM HOLDING OFF ON A WATCH FOR 1 MORE
PERIOD...ALLOWING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THINGS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE MODEL VARIABILITY. BUT IT IS LOOKING
LIKE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. AT THIS POINT...GENERALLY HAVE 2 TO 5
INCHES FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV
ZONES...WITH 4 TO 6 ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ACROSS THE CRW-HTS METRO
AREA AND SOUTH...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHERN WV...AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES IN THE
HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUN NGT INTO EASTERLY MON
BEFORE LOW PRES EXITS THE E COAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD SET UP
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER TROF APPROACHING
THU. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 06Z TO 12Z. FRONT PASSING CKB-CRW LINE BY 09Z.  HAVE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT FOR A HOUR OR TWO...WITH SOME
CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN AND VSBY ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 5 OR 6
MILES OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT AT 12Z OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES SHOULD EVAPORATE BY 15Z...WITH CEILING UNLIMITED AND VSBY
UNRESTRICTED AFTERWORDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:  NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN...WET SNOW...SLEET AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KTB