Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 222113 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 513 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE SE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 21Z UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES...UPDATED PRECIPITATION TO BE A BIT MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE MOST CURRENT RUC AND HRRR MODEL RUNS. OLD BELOW... THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN H5 RIDGE COULD BRING SOME IMPULSES OF ENERGY TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RADAR INDICATED AT 18Z...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG INTERSTATE 64 FROM HTS TO CRW AND SOUTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE TO PRODUCE ONE INCH PER HOUR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED TERRAIN...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD. DECREASED COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAYS HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DRIER WX REGIME BEGINS TO SET IN AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARM...BUT NOT HOT AS THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT REMAINS WELL W OF THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER MUGGY THOUGH...TYPICAL DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. HIGH PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL DOMINATE THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 21Z UPDATE... UPDATED CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. OLD BELOW... RADAR IMAGES SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND ALONG A LINE FROM CRW TO BKW AT 18Z. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT BKW DIRECTLY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNDER STORMS. PCPN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH VERY HIGH HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...EVIDENT IN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. CEILINGS BECOMING MAINLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN WITH LAYERS AND VSBY 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE AFTER ABOUT 22Z. YET...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION AND TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL VARY. AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF PCPN MAY EVEN LINGER LONGER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/LS SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ/LS

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