Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240622 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 203 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH STORMS/SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHJIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS EAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE WEAK NORTHERLY FRESH AIR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR 06Z...FRONT NEAR EKN TO CRW TO S OF HTS. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER PUSH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO FIRST. 500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING. THIS KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUTNAINS INCLUDING BKW. THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRIGNIA MOUNTAINS. ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDESTORM STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 500 MB WAVE PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY. CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS CORRIDOR FIRST. WITH CLEARING RECHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA 21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z ON FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 07/24/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H M H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H M H H M AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY

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