Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 311938 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR THE N MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH WHERE MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY IS IN THE CARDS. ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET...WITH CU FIELD TO FOLLOW. THIS SETS UP A MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT FLOW...A RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH BEST SHOT AT SEEING A POPCORN SHRA/TSRA BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH. TEMPS LOOK TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION SURPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DISSIPATING CU FIELD. LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL YIELD RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT...BRINGING VLIFR CONDITIONS TO MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT KBKW. FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. LOW END VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH HEATING WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BY END OF TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ANY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE. TIMING OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY A FEW HOURS FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...FB AVIATION...30

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