Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041020 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 620 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY. DRIER AIR TRIES TO OOZE SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAIN. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE AND A 500MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...BUT THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT/BREAK UP. SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE PRECIP HAS CLEARED THE WETTEST AREA OF THE CWA...AND IS NOT OVERLY HEAVY...WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT...SO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THERE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THE WANING MOON SHOULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE TONIGHT. ALL THE WHILE...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING 500MB LOW WITH POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TREND ON 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WAS TO HAVE THE WEAK 500 MB LOW FURTHER WEST...WITH THE NAM THE FURTHEST WEST. AS A RESULT... HAD TO GO WETTER IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...THEN BRING THE CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL TRY TO KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING SW VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV PLATEAU REGION VCNTY BKW. ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH AND LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY. THE 500 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO COOLER IN THE 500 MB TROF...SO WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...THUNDER CHANCES WERE MENTIONED...BUT INSTABILITY NOT HIGH. SOMETIMES IN THIS TYPE OF SUMMER PATTERN THE T APPEARS ON THE PERIPHERY. THE 500 MB TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST MONDAY...WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND TROF IN THE MIDWEST ACTING AS A KICKER. CURRENTLY WILL NOT ADD ANY WATER HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL... BUT WITH THE WET TERRAIN IN MANY COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY. ANY PCPN WOULD BE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. CODED HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. WENT WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WV. IN THE SHOWERS ACTUALLY SEEING BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAN ELSEWHERE...AS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FORM QUICKLY. WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CWA...WITH IFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO MID MORNING. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR STORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE TODAY. TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY TONIGHT. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG/MOUNTAIN CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ

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