Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 242035 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 352 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low digs into the Tennessee Valley and brings chances of showers and storms, tapering off on Friday. Additional disturbances provide precipitation chances over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Upper low continues to dig into the Mid Mississippi Valley with energy rotating into the CWA in the cyclonic flow. The weak instability has been overcome enough to get embedded convection within a stratiform rain shield, making the severe threat rather tricky given the directional shear profiles. Expecting more convection to fire in the dry slot in the wake of this shield where clearing has taken place. Wind and hail threat exists as well. Take the POPs down considerably tonight in this drier air after frontal passage from south to north with the absence of the heating. As the low continues to rotate into the northeast, additional embedded waves will be the source of forcing in the cold pool aloft heading into Thursday. There will also be a low level jet streak across the southern CWA which will help with some of the organization of the convection, but just in the general thunderstorm area from the SPC guidance. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Wednesday... Upper level low will move off to the northeast Thursday night and Friday, with showers pulling out of the area. Models are fairly consistent with a disturbance then moving through Friday night into Saturday, providing additional showers, with thunderstorms possible by Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 PM Wednesday... Models show a disturbance moving across the area Saturday night or Sunday. Depending on the timing of this disturbance, could see some decent CAPE for Sunday afternoon. Will need to keep an eye out for the possibility of hail. Models then diverge a bit with the timing of a cold front for early next week. This leads to a low confidence forecast for the timing of precipitation Monday and Tuesday, in addition to temperatures during this time frame. By Wednesday, cooler air from an upper level trough should be over the area with a few showers not out of the question. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 125 PM Wednesday... Showers and thunderstorms moving into the area. Restrictions in ceilings in visibilities expected to arrive in the first 6 hours of the forecast, with some IFR possible in TSRA. Have avoided TEMPO groups given the large shield of precipitation moving in as opposed to a more scattered nature of precipitation. Once the heating ends and the dry slot from the upper level low moves in, take the visibility restrictions out with enough wind in place to keep the low levels stirred. Ceilings should come down however, with some IFR under 1kft after 06Z Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of TSRA or VCTS could vary. Amendments likely. Post thunderstorm environments later tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Upper level low keeps IFR chances in play through Thursday night. Brief IFR possible in storms Sunday afternoon/evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.