Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171010 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 600 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep the unseasonably warm weather through the first half of the week. A frontal system brings unsettled and cooler weather by mid week, lasting through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Monday... A weak upper air disturbance will pull off to the northeast early this morning, with models indicating there could be some associated sprinkles in northern WV and central Oh. High pressure then takes over providing a dry and warm afternoon. Due to a strong pressure gradient, winds should continue overnight in the western counties. Therefore, will go on the warmer side of MOS lows. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 510 AM Monday... Building upper level ridge across the southeastern U.S. keeps us in warm southwesterly flow to start the period and the unseasonable warmth will continue through mid week. Blended model guidance remains a touch on the conservative side for high temps. However, operational guidance depicts H85 temps pushing 16C with both the GFS and ECMWF in decent agreement for the first half of the work week. Considering that, may need to re-think afternoon highs for Tues/Wed later today. Our dry spell will come to an end as the ridge dissipates and showers sneak into the northern and western counties as early as Wednesday morning, ahead of an approaching front and developing longwave upper trough. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 510 AM Monday... The brunt of the next front arrives by later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing with it a decent shot at some much needed rainfall and cooler temperatures. There are some noticeable differences among operational model solutions, mainly regarding frontal timing and longwave trough evolution. The GFS remains on the slow side and depicts a much more amplified trough over the eastern U.S. with splitting flow and a cut off low developing near the FL Panhandle by Saturday. The ECMWF, on the other hand, better lines up with the other model guidance and features a more progressive flow regime and less amplified trough. Tried to hit a good middle ground between the differing solutions after collaboration with surrounding offices. Expecting showers to be ongoing at the start of the period and generally have rain moving out late Friday with much cooler temperatures behind the front. Thunder chances will be tempered by reduced pre-frontal heating. The southern coal fields in WV as well as eastern KY counties could see some storms Thursday afternoon if sufficient buoyancy can develop. Model differences continue through the remainder of the extended period, with northwest flow aloft setting up in the wake of the departing front. Per the ECMWF, there is the potential for additional showers with a passing shortwave trough by the weekend, while the GFS is far less excited about additional rain chances. Considering the lack of model consensus on additional rain, kept the forecast largely dry through next Monday. Saturday highs may not even reach the 60F mark. Slightly warmer on Sunday, though, with subtle height rises nosing back in as a new ridge develops across the southern U.S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 605 AM Monday... Fog in the central and southern mountains should dissipate quickly after sunrise. Expect some MVFR cumulus in the mountains late this morning, then VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon and tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog in the central and southern mountains dissipating could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Typical early morning valley fog possible next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/DTC NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...DTC LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.