Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231820 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 220 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT ABOUT 14Z DEPICTING A COUPLE OF THIN PREFRONTAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...WITH MORE GENERAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN OHIO INTO INDIANA. 14Z OBS INDICATE THE SFC FRONT ROUGHLY ON TRACK WITH FCST...STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST OF TOLEDO OHIO...STILL WEST OF DAYTON OHIO...AND INTO SE INDIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BE INTO THE SE OHIO ZONES BY AROUND 21Z. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOW IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE I64 CORRIDOR BTWN 00Z THU AND 03Z THU...AND STILL NEAR OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE 09Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME. SOME INDICATION VIA NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE MODELS AS WELL AS RECENT RAP13 RUNS THAT BULK OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION MAY MISS THE FAR NW ZONES AND RESIDE MORE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND TRI-STATE AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO GOING TO ALLOW ISO SEVERE WORDING TO CONTINUE IN CURRENT HWO WITH MINIMAL WINDS IN THE COLUMN AND VERY HIGH HAIL HEIGHTS...ANY SEVERE WX SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN GENERAL. LATEST NAM AND OP GFS RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH JUST A BIT VERSUS PREV RUNS. MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES AT 12Z THU AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THOSE AREAS...WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCE IN AS WELL. WITH UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD AT 18Z THU WITH ASSOC COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WILL KEEP SKY COVER UP TO REFLECT A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVER THE WV ZONES AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LLVL MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL...AS USUAL...THE SE OHIO ZONES AND LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER WILL STAND TO SEE MORE MID/LATE DAY SUN VERSUS POINTS FURTHER EAST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS. DO BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS AND AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING...WITH A LATE-DAY REBOUND IN TEMPS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WHILE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TO START THE SHORT TERM...POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL STILL BE LINGERING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. ALL MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS IN NW FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. INCREASED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATING DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON A STRONG WAA AT 850MB. ALSO INCREASED POPS ON SATURDAY WITH THE ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO STAY BELOW 80. ADDED A COUPLE DEGREES TO THAT FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE...AND THEN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES SATURDAY AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECTING A COOLER NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF READINGS IN THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT JUST A TOUCH WARMER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN. THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARDS THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO APPROX 21Z-00Z THU...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA 00Z- 03Z...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-09Z. CEILINGS WILL BE GENERALLY 3KFT AND ABOVE PREVALENT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE IFR VIS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER/STORM. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIKELY SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TO AT LEAST LOW/MID MVFR...WITH HIGH IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 79 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST...AND WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BY END OF THE VALID PERIOD. MEANWHILE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS SE OHIO BY THE DAWN HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MID-AFTERNOON. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. && .EQUIPMENT... PKB ASOS IS NOT SENDING A COMPLETE OBSERVATION. NWS TECHS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JS EQUIPMENT...50

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