Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 021254 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 854 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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TWEAKED THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS WELL AS OTHER STORMS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THESE SAME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS EAST OVER NORTHERN WV TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMATION DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OUTSIDE SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH AN WESTERLY COMPONENT. FOR TONIGHT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TODAY. GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. MOST OF THE FORCING REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A VORT MAX MEANDERS AROUND LIKE A LOST DOG...BUT NEVER COMES HOME TO WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN A GENERAL VOID WHERE DIURNALLY FORCED STORMS OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO DENT THE RIDGE BY DAY 7/TUESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THE FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT FOR DAY 4/SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER. UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA SPREADING CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEARING WILL CREATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TOGETHER WITH WARM RIVER WATERS...DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HTS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOST SITES TO DETERIORATE FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR DURING THE 09-12Z PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL HEATING...WITH A LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATIONS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ALONG THE STRONGER STORMS. DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IF RAINFALL WILL HIT AN AIRPORT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN ON TAFS. EXPECT IFR RIVER VALLEY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...JSH/ARJ SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...FB/KTB AVIATION...ARJ

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