Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241029 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 629 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid weather continues today with an isolated t-shower possible. Weak front drops through Monday night lingering into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Another hot and humid day expected. Have similar afternoon temperatures, with slightly higher dewpoints when compared to yesterday. This leads to another day with heat indices around 100, so have opted to issue a heat advisory for most lowland counties. Do need to include a bit of uncertainty with this...as decaying MCS moving into northwest Ohio could leave some cloud debris which could impact temperatures a bit. Even more impactful would be if an area of showers or thunderstorms redevelops and crosses the northern CWA. More on that below. MCS continues to decay as it heads towards Lake Erie. However, models do indicate that a weak spin associated with the decaying MCS will cross just north of CWA today. This could be enough to kick off some isolated thundershowers especially with the heating of the day. Keeping a close eye on hi-res models to see if an increase in POPs would be warranted across the north. For now, most hi-res guidance is keeping any more organized feature north of the CWA across northern OH into PA. The one exception is the HRRR which does try to bring a decent shot of convection into northwestern CWA this afternoon. Weak upper level disturbances continue flowing by tonight...so kept some isolated POPs going across the northwestern CWA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front along approaches from the northwest to increase clouds and chances for PCPN later Monday into Tuesday. Models show some disagreement in the coverage, timing and intensity of possible showers and storms. Leaned more to the GFS in coverage of PCPN more numerous than the NAM and faster than the ECMWF. The NAM shows ample sfc CAPE, low deep layered shear and precipitable water around 2 inches. These ingredients will be enough to produce heavy downpours and produce some water problems. Used mainly the super blend numbers for temperatures through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The front finally gets a nudge to the S by Wednesday with mid level drying spreading into the area keeping afternoon shra/tsra chances confined over S WV/SW VA in the better moisture. This front dissolves on Thursday as the next s/w trof and surface low approach with another uptick in shra/tsra coverage during the afternoon and lingering into Friday across the mountains. Temps will gradually ease back closer to normal levels midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fog should dissipate shortly after 12Z, with VFR expected today with some mid and high clouds. Isolated t-shower possible this afternoon but low enough coverage to keep out of TAFs for now. More clouds around tonight, so think fog should be less. Did still include IFR at EKN, with some MVFR fog possible at other river valley sites. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing/intensity may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms late Monday. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending on lingering clouds. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032. OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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